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Published on Sunday, 07 September 2014 23:46

Vuelta a España St. 16

San Martín Del Rey Aurelio to La Farrapona

Monday September 8th, 160.5kms 

The queen stage of the race unfortunately comes on a Monday when most fans are going to struggle to watch what looks like being an incredible stage. Stage 15 lived up to its billing as a potential classic with a relentless series of attacks on the last climb with Warren Barguil, Alberto Contador and Katusha the main aggressors.

Incredibly Niemiec did what I thought he would do yesterday after picking him at 100/1 and held off the chasers by just 5", I'm pretty gutted with that. On that score, Chris Froome will go out and win tomorrow after another valiant yo-yo performance today. Dan Martin did as I expected today, not good enough to go with the best but good enough to move up to 7th place which I predicted. 

John Degenkolb was a hero today going out in the break and winning the two intermediate sprints, which was just as well as Valverde took the points on the line for 2nd place. He's now odds on with most to take the points but there's still some evens out there. Contador held on to his lead today despite losing a handful of seconds on the line and he has hardenend in to 3/10 to win now. 

The Route

No doubt about it, this is going to be a savage stage - a zig-zag route which takes them north, south, east and west at various points along the road is just peppered with steep, hard climbs.

It starts after just 10kms with the Cat 1 Alto de la Colladona, a 7.4km climb with a 6.7% average and a max of 11.67%. Next is the Cat 2 Alto del Cordal after 61.8kms which is followed by the first intermediate sprint in the brief moment they are in the valley between two climbs. They get steeper and longer from there on with the Cat 1 Alto de la Cobertoria, 10kms at 8.8% with max slopes of 16%.

A 25kms descent takes them to the foot of the penultimate climb, the Puerto do San Lorenzo, the official climb is 10.1kms but it's longer from the base of the valley, closer to 22kms. The 10kms part is 8.5% with a max of 13%. The descent off the top is only 10kms long but very steep and quite dangerous and the forecasted storms and rain could cause problems. The final climb, the Cat 1 La Farrapona is listed as being 16.5kms at 6.2% with max slopes of 12.5% but from the valley it is closer to 24kms, making it a brutal finish to the stage. The last 2.5kms average around 11.5%, only easing off slightly to 8% in the last 300m.     

Contenders and Favourites

Today's stage saw Contador, Valverde, Rodriguez, Aru, Froome, Martin, Barguil and Uran duking it out for the last 7kms or so with the three amigos surging again and again as soon as Froome came close to getting back on again. Barguil was brilliant today in terms of taking the fight to the Spaniards, but in the end he had nothing left and was caught and passed by Froome and Martin. It's hard to see anything other than a similar outcome tomorrow in terms of who will be involved at the finish.

But who can take it? Contador did a lot of work again today and once again was left behind at the finish. I think it could be the same tomorrow. Aru struggled today to go with them leaders at the finish, as did Dan Martin. I think it will be the same tomorrow. Froome is incredible at the moment, yo-yoing back and forth but staying very, very close at the finish of each stage, so close that he is still in 3rd place on the exact same time as Rodriguez. I tried to give him a chance today but he just doesn't have the acceleration to cope with the relentless attacks.

I don't think a break will make it so it's down to the three amigos - Valverde, Contador and Rodriguez. The way it finished today, you'd have to think Valverde has to have a big chance of taking the stage tomorrow. He's only 31" behind Contador still and there's 10" on offer again tomorrow for the winner. If he can get to the finish with Rodriguez or Contador he'll outsprint them again. He's my bet for tomorrow at 9/1 each-way with Paddy Power.

Rodriguez is likely to chase him home again with possibly Froome chasing them home or not far behind Contador. Maybe Barguil will ride a bit more conservatively tomorrow and be closer at the finish but I think we are looking at a similar finish to today's but without Niemiec!  

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alejandro Valverde at 9/1 with Paddy Power. 

Match Bets 

Valverde to beat Martin, Kelderman to beat Anacona and Rodriguez to beat Contador - the treble pays 2/1 with Bet365 - 2pts.

Froome to beat Aru - 1pt at evens 

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