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Published on Sunday, 16 May 2021 18:43

Giro d'Italia St 10

L'Aquila - Foligno

Monday 17th May, 139km

Not a great stage, but at least it's short! Only 139kms, and the day before the rest day, on a day that normally would be a rest day, a Monday. I think a lot of the riders will be treating this as an extra rest day and coast to a sprint finish. 

Not much in the way of a serious challenge along the route, not compared to the stage back in 2010 when the race finished in what was then an earthquake-ravaged L'Aquila. In horrible weather conditions, a break that contained Brad Wiggins, Richie Porte, Dario Cataldo and Carlos Sastre built up a huge lead on the moutaineous route. Evegi Petrov took the win in a slow-motion finish (below) and with the peloton coming in some 13 minutes behind them, Richie Porte took the Maglia Rosa. 

This stage is just over half the distance of that monster 256kms that day, it was more akin to a wet and miserable Milan San Remo than to a Giro stage, especially these days, thankfully the monster long stages seem to be falling away from race-planners plans. The Giro last came to Foligno in 2014 when Nacer Bouhanni won a bunch sprint on an almost identical, but 73km longer stage. The final 65kms of the stage are practically identical, taking in the Forca do Arrone hill, the Cat 4 Valco della Somma but just a slightly differen run in to Foligno. 

Stage 9 Review.

What an incredible stage we had again today, almost every guy I have picked this week for the break actually got in the break, which was hugely annoying, with Storer, Bouwman, Gallopin, Rubio, LL Sanchez, Vendrame all getting in the breaks today, and Koen Bouwman almost winning it with a brilliant ride. He had his heart broken by a rampaging Egan Bernal though who flew up that final climb in the big ring, riding past them like he was on a motorbike with just 500m to go. 

He was sensational on the gravel, riding Ciccone off his wheel in the big ring and putting 7" in to Ciccone and Vlasov, with Evenpoel and Martin a further 3" back in 5th. Unlucky with the Martin e/w, he wasn't far off, and unlucky with the matchbets, lesson learned to stop betting against Ciccone.

So a good winner with Bernal in the end, but boy was it close as to whether it turned out to be a GC day or not.. but annoying to end up with no profit on the day by dint of the Martin/Ciccone matchbet puling down the double and treble. Hopefully some of you just took the Bernal bet and left the matchbets, you'd have finished ahead today. Same yesterday in fact with Ewan, maybe I should stay away from Matchbets..  

Good rides behind too by Caruso, Bardet and Soler, Soler looks good and could well still cause problems for the top guys in the next two weeks. Joao Almeida continues to show he's not finished yet too though, coming home in 10th just 12" down, alongside Yates, Buchmann and Carthy and Formolo. Evenepoel looked in trouble with about 1km to go and looked to be slipping down the pack but recovered really well to finish 4th ahead of Martin.

Bernal looked head and shoulders above everyone though, his mountain bike background evident the way he powered away on the gravel. He's now in to 8/11 to win it, and if his back holds up it's hard to see anyone beating him, but at the same time, there's still only 1'01" between Bernal and Formolo in 10th place. Evenepoel Isn't too far off him yet though and as long as he keeps him within reach he could still have a chance with the final TT to come. 

The Route

A short, rolling stage with a pan-flat finale. The route first takes in climbs up to Sella di Corno after just 4.5kms and a small bump to Forca di Arrone after 74kms, and then tackles one last ascent up to the Cat 4 Valico della Somma with 39kms to go.

The route eventually levels out after a 20km descent, running on broad and mostly straight roads. As the stage passes through several urban areas, roundabouts, traffic islands and street furniture will be found along the route. The final kilometres are quite straight, up to around 1.4kms from the finish, where they take a sharp right, immediately followed by a left hand bend, the Flamme Rouge and another sharp left-hander that takes them on to the finishing straight.. but it's not quite straight all the way, as 200m from the line the road curves to the right so they will see the line quite late. 

Contenders and Favourites

So a very short stage, unlikely the break will make it, looks like we are looking at another sprint finish then in Foligno. But... there is one less team now to chase with Caleb Ewan after going home, Lotto are unlikely to chase. It might even be that we see Thomas de Gendt wind everyone up by going on the attack on a stage that people don't expect him to and hold off the peloton to take the win! 

Also, it might be that UAE don't chase either, after Gaviria's crash on Saturday I wouldn't be surprised if he's a bit stiff and sore and might not be up for the sprint today. Unless they opt to work for Molano, but that looks like a waste of energy to me, they may as well keep their powder dry for the week ahead. 

So it looks like it's up to Qhubeka, Cofidis, Jumbo, Alpecin and maybe Bora to do the chasing in order to set up the sprint for their men. Will this finally be the day that Gicaomo Nizzolo takes his win? With Ewan out of the way it makes it a lot easier for sure, but his last sprint finish didn't go so well for him, he got a bit lost up the hill and in the turns in the last 2kms, and could only manage 12th place in the end.

But he has been very impressive up until then and will be desperate to win this now that Ewan is gone. He did well on the tricky first sprint stage with the final 200m around the curved road on Merlier's wheel, he will look to be in the same sort of position behind maybe Merlier or the Cofidis train as they take the final bends inside the last 1500m. But will he have the speed this time to come past Merlier? 

Tim Merlier will be licking his lips at the chance of another stage win though, it's very similar to the stage he won on the opening weekend, with the turns with 1km to go and then a long, fast, flat drag to the line, slightly around the bend. The wind tomorrow is a WSW of around 16kmph, which means it's in their faces as they come out of the last bend with 1km to go, until about 200m to go when they curve to a more north-east direction, where it will be like a cross wind from their left.

So he will maybe be at a disadvantage going early, or if he does go early he could be vulnerable to being picked off late on by someone coming off his wheel who hits the front in the last 100m when the headwind has eased a bit. That someone could be Elia Viviani, as he'll probably be in a good position if Consonni can guide him in like he has been doing. But Elia hasn't been able to pass too many people though when he gets in position, he seems a little one-paced in his sprints. He should be right there though, and is capable of jumping with the likes of Merlier and Nizzolo to fight it out for a podium spot. 

And Dylan Groenewegen.. I want to keep believing that it's a matter of when, not if, he gets back to winning ways, and as his price remains at an attractive level like 8/1 he might be worth having a go. Jumbo will be up near the front with Dekker and Jos and hopefully he can be guided in to a good position coming out of the final bend on Merlier and Viviani's wheel, ready to pounce.

Davide Cimolai is 3rd fav for the sprint, something you'd not have expected a week ago with the sprinters we have here. But he has been super-impressive so far and looks to have done the business for us in that matchbet with Kanter, as long as he finishes. I think though his two second places flatter him somewhat - both of those stages were very different to this one, they had tough, hilly finales and his punchy style enabled him to get in to great positions. In the only really flat out sprint he's contested he finished 9th and I think he's more a 4th - 9th place finisher on a stage like this again. 

Another rider at 8/1 is Peter Sagan, and as well as he's been riding lately, he's not been that impressive to me and has never looked like winning a sprint. Even the stages that were supposed to be made for him didn't work out, Cimolai out sprinted him for the bunch win in stage 3 and he tried something stupid up the barriers in stage 7 where he could have taken out half the peloton, had his handling not been so good. But he was beaten at that point and would have been lucky to podium I think. And I think it will be the same here, he just isn't fast enough. 

Matteo Moschetti, Andrea Pasqualon, Andrea Vendrame - they could all be close too, possibly scrapping for the remaining top 10 places. There is the possibility we get some attacks on the Cat 4 climb, but as there's 40kms still to go it's highly unlikely they'll stay away. 

Viviani, Merlier, Nizzolo, Groenewegen, Gaviria, Dekker and Consonni all finished in the last 10 home today, they clearly paced themselves up the last climb to stay within the time limit and not much more, ready to take each other on tomorrow. Prices have been moving around a lot even while I've been writing his, with Merlier going from 3.75 to 4.5 and Sagan coming in from 8 to 6 with Betway, Unibet make Sagan the 4/1 fav with Melier 9/2 and Nizz 7/1 and Groenewegen 14/1. I can't trust Merlier at that price, he could be getting tired now and open for a mugging with a long sprint. Sagan is too short too, I think he's not fast enough. 

So that leaves Cimolai - can't have him at that price either, even if he's riding out of his skin at the moment, Viviani, Nizzolo, Gaviria and Groenewegen. Gaviria I'm not sure about either after his crash yesterday, so that leaves Nizzolo, Viviani and Groenewegen. Again, hard to trust any of them too much, but at the price, 16/1 with Betway has to be taken on Groenewegen, with the 6/4 on Nizzolo to place also one I like.  

UPDATE - 10.30am: My man says that JV are all-in for Dylan today and that they'll wait for Dylan if he is struggling on the climb a little. Also, Jos is saying that he's never seen Dylan climb so well, so fingers crossed he hangs on and gives us a shot. He's now as big as 18/1 which is a silly big price, he'll be 4/1 or shorter should he get over the hill. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Groenewegen at 16/1 with Betway, I'd take down to 12/1

2pts on Nizzolo at 6/4 to finish in the top 3 with Unibet

Matchbets

Viviani to beat Gaviria - 2pts at 3/4

Sagan to beat Cimolai and Groenewegen to beat Moschetti - 1pt at 6/4 Boosted with Unibet