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Published on Saturday, 22 May 2021 19:32

Giro d'Italia St.15

Grado - Gorizia

Sunday 23rd May, 147kms

This is a strange stage they've dropped in to the middle of two tough stages in the Alps. Partly raced in Italy, partly in Slovenia, it's more like a stage of the Tour of Slovenia or Romandie with a circuit feel to it as they pass over the same hill three times in total.

The stage starts in Grado in the Laguno di Grado and crosses along the land bridge and on to the flatlands of the Friuli region, but from 63kms onwards it criss-crosses between Italy and Slovenia on a 31km circuit that should suit the likes of Peter Sagan, with some short, sharp hills on it. 

It could well be a stage for the breakaway, sandwiched as it is between two mountain stages, the GC teams might be happy to let them go and take it easy for the day. The question is, does the likes of Sagan try to get in the break, or at this stage in the race will it be all in for Buchmann and he's left do his own thing? Either way, whether he gets in the break or not he's got to be a strong fancy for the stage, given how he rode on stages like this in Romandie. 

Stage 14 Review

Break went pretty early and it contained Bennett and Mollema as everyone expected, along with Affini, Olivera and 7 others. Movistar wanted Rubio or Pedrero in the break though, so for a while they were chasing but eventually gave up. Astana went to the front from early on though, Rai asked Giuseppe Martinelli why they were chasing, he answered that Zoncolan shall be won by a champion, so they want to close the breakaway. He was also complaining that no one was helping them, it was a bit strange that EF or Ineos for example didn't come to the front to help. 

But things became a lot more interesting once they got over the Forcella Monte Rest, with Astana hammering it down the descent and causing consternation.. They took a small group with four of their men and Bernal, Bilbao clear, with splits all over the place. Yates, Bardet, Carthy and Martin were in a second group about 20" down, but Evenepoel had been caught out again and was in a 3rd group another 15" back. After some frantic chasing in the valley though they came back together with 37kms to go, while the break's lead was around 5 1/2 mins. 

Hitting the Zoncolan though, the break had 6'24" but it was down to 7 men, but it included 18 year old Ponomar. When the peloton the gap was still 6'12" with Astana still at the front, along with all the GC men, with 10.8kms to go for the leaders. 1km later it was down to 5'30". With 5.5kms to go for the leaders, the gap was still 4'50" as Fortunato joined Tratnik, with Mollema and Bennett some 40" behind them. 

We saw Nibali fall out of the peloton with almost 7kms of the climb left, and the peloton hit the steepest last 3kms with a deficit of 3'20". Suddenly Yates moved up, had a look around and attacked. Only Bernal could go with him and they started to pull away as Formolo and Evenepoel went out the back door. They powered away, with Yates doing all the pulling, only for Bernal to explode away in the last 500m and put 11" in to him. But it was a good day for Yates as he finally started to show good legs and moved in to 2nd place.

Interestingly, he said in his post-race interview "I won't go in to the detail, but not the best of first weeks for me, but I'm feeling better now." maybe he was hinting he was sick or had some fitness issue that he seems to have overcome? Either way, he now looks best placed to challenge Bernal in the week ahead and he could be coming to a peak, maybe as Bernal starts to fade? He hasn't looked like fading so far though, he has been absolutely brilliant. 

Up front, 200/1 shot Fortunato bravely held on to send Alberto Contador in to raptures and Jan Tratnik at 500/1 zig-zagged his way to second place, with Covi in 3rd. The two guys who were trading as favourites for most of the stage, Mollema and Bennett never got in a blow and were super disappointing, after all the work done for them by Moschetti and Affini. Bernal stormed up the hill though to set a new climbing record by more than a minute, passing Mollema to take 4th place on the stage. Yates finished 6th. You'd have to think that if Ineos had been doing the pulling instead of Astana then Bernal would probably have won the stage and Yates would have been 2nd.

What a stupid day for Astana though, they pushed it all day, but not fast enough to take any time off the break in the first 3kms of the Zoncolan, a pretty awful effort considering how tired the guys up front were. And then to cap it off, Vlasov capitulated on the final part, losing 1'12" to Bernal and slid down to 4th from 2nd on GC and is now almost 2 minutes back. It was a bad day too for Carthy, who couldn't go with the moves at all and finished almost a minute behind Bernal.

Ciccone and Caruso continue to impress though with superb rides, finishing the closest to Bernal with Martinez, 39" down. Another zero day, this is really not pleasant at all, hard to believe Ciccone and Caruso rode like they did, Martin losing by one place to Ciccone (but 5" off). And even Vlasov let us down, finishing 26" behind Buchmann. Surely the luck will turn at some point. 

The Route

This is a strange one, with part of the stage raced in Italy and part in Slovenia. The stage starts in Grado, out on a peninsula on the Laguno di Grado and crosses back on to land on the long passageway through the sea. For the next 35kms they roll along the flat plains until they reach Sagrado, where they briefly dip in to the hills to go over the Monte San Michele, which has a section of 2.7kms at 5.1% and a section of 1.2kms at 7.4%. 

Back down to the flatlands for the next 22kms and they enter Slovenia with 63kms gone, starting on the 31km circuit. The circuit starts with the Gornje Cerovo climb, which is 2.5kms long at 7% average, but that is a bit deceiving as to how tough it is, the opening 600m average just 3.3%, then it kicks up to 10.6% for 200m, then the next 400m average just 6% again. The next 600m are the hardest, hitting 10,11 and 14% gradients before it eases back to 5% for the last 400m. 

But the top is not the end of the climbing, as it rolls on for another 15kms with a number of rises and falls, including a section for 900m at 6.9%. The circuit then returns to Italy for 12kms or so on flat roads again, before returning to Slovenia for another full lap. They go back over Gornje Cerovo one more time, but this time at the top they turn east and head towards the finish in Gorizia. 

They run along 5kms of flat roads in Italy before one last trip in to Slovenia for the last challenge of the day, the little kick up just after the intermediate sprint at Nova Goricia. 500m at 3.8% and 500m at 7.4% will give an opportunity for one last attempt to get away, and with the top coming just 3kms from the finish, there's a chance that a solo rider can hang on, as it descends for 1.5kms of the 3kms remaining. There are a couple of tight bends on the descent, but generally it's pretty straight, with one last right hand turn with 300m to go on to a flat run to the line, but part of it is on paving stones.  

Contenders and Favourites

This should be an interesting stage. it'll almost be like a circuit race in Romandie or Tour De Suisse as I said, but also it has vibes of the World Championships in Harrogate, that raising of the speed each circuit, the whittle down of the pack, the late attacks trying to get away and win it in the final kilometres. In another comparison to Harrogate, it looks like it's going to rain all day long. The forecast is for rain all day, with wind early in the stage, which could be interesting on the flat, open plains in the opening 40kms or so. But the wind dies down later in the day, so it shouldn't have too much of an effect on the finale. 

The break has a chance for sure, but I think I'm leaning towards this being a GC day. I think Ineos and Bora will be keen to keep the pace high all day, and it could be that the break hasn't been let go until after the first intermediate sprint point after 53kms, as Sagan will be keen to take as many points as possible here. If he can take points here, points in the last intermediate and points at the finish, it's probably the jersey in the bag. Or it could be a small break with Androni, Bardiani, Eolo and Jan Tratnik racing on home soil.. if there's 4 or 5 riders in it there are still points worth fighting for in the sprint. 

They will almost certainly have reeled them in in plenty of time for the second intermediate sprint, it just depends how hard Sagan goes here or saves his legs for the final kicker. As there are not too many points between him and Nizzolo though, it could be wel contested.. Then it's on to the next 2kms, which could well decide the stage.  

Uphill for a kilometer, with the first 500m not being too bad at 3.8% average, but the second 500m is much tougher, at 7.4%, with a part hitting 14% as they drag up in to that u-bend, which you can see below. But it's a good, wide road, not through a steep hairpin or the like.. 

As they go over the top it's a fast descent on a good road, and it's only 3kms to the finish so a small group with a small gap could hold it to the finish if there's not a concerted chase organised behind. 

But also, the course has that challenge of the Cerovo climb, which although is short at 1.7kms, it is hard - hitting 10-14% for about 800m. GC teams/Bora maybe, will be looking to really put the pressure on, maybe even with 85kms to go when they go up it for the first time as it rolls on for about 9kms.. If you can shift some of the sprinters and weaker guys here they might not get back on. If they don't make a move first time over, I think they will definitely be upping the pace next time around, as there's only about 40kms left once they are over the top.  

I think there will be some guys dropped, the pace will be very high last time up as there is only 10kms to go once they are at the bottom of the descent. Then it's about 5 minutes on the flat before the final little kicker that is so small on the preview, you can barely see it.. but it's going to be raced incredibly fast - Puncheurs and GC men will mix at the front, Inoes are probably going to try to rip it up as they will want to keep Bernal safe to the 3kms to go marker. 

This is where Peter Sagan needs to be right at the front coming up this hill, Bora can drill it again too to strip away the likes of Viviani and the other remaining sprinters. If he can get away with some puncheurs/climbers, he can win from the sprint. 

Davide Cimolai will be another who will be keeping a close eye on what's going on at the front, as will Nizzolo, I think he will be on the limit to get over the climb at the front, he had a tough day on the Zoncolan today, finishing XX down in the last group. 

Could Ineos try to pull a fast one with Gianni Moscon? I wouldn't be surprised to see them pull hard at the front to strip down the peloton, then near the top of the final hill he launches off the front and they stall a little to give him a gap that he holds on to down the descent and to the finish. He pulled today for a little bit on the Zoncolan, but not for long, he pulled off with some 7kms still to go, maybe he's got this in mind. 40/1 is worth a shot I think.

Other puncheurs like Brambilla, Visconti, Bettiol, Ulissi, Vendrame and Bilbao might try something on the first climb with 40kms to go or the final climb with Sagan. Bettiol could be freed now to go after a stage win, he clearly has good legs, but has been reigned in so far in support of Carthy.. But Carthy is struggling now a little in GC, maybe he should be let have a go on a stage like this.. But Carthy isn't out of it yet.. will he be let go.. he was interesting at 20/1, he's now just 12/1 and that's not big enough I think. 

Lotto Soudal have only 3 riders left in the race, with Kluge a DNF today, but I think De Gendt and Vanhoucke will save themselves for a stage next week, I don't think they will waste themselves on this one. Oldani could have a chance in the sprint though if it's a reduced group that come to the line, he wasn't far off Sagan in 4th place on stage 10 and was 6th in the sprint on stage 13. At 125/1 he's hugely overpriced. 

AG2R will be looking to get guys in the break and they could have a double chance with Andrea Vendrame.. he could go in a strong break and hang on to sprint for the win, or he could stay on Sagan's wheel if it becomes a peloton day and could fight for the sprint win. He's clearly got great legs at the moment. Tony Gallopin could also fancy it, but maybe he'll wait for a mountain stage next week. 

With Evenepoel now resigning himself to just fighting for the top ten and all but admitting that the GC is gone for him, DQS will also be looking at other options here - Remi Cavagna, Honore or Keisse maybe will be launching themselves off the front in the last 40kms, or even trying to get in the break of the day and see if they can hang on. Cavagna has been very quiet so far in this race, as he has been doing team duties, but this is the sort of stage you could see his power come in to effect and he could well solo to victory from the break or from a late attack. 

The betting shows just how open this is, at 6.30 as I write this Bet365 opened up with Sagan the 2/1 fav and then the next guy, Gaviria at 18/1! The betting is all over the place as I expected, with sprinters, puncheurs, GC men all mixed up and different guys being backed. It's a super hard stage to read, but I think we'll just play a few punchy, strong guys who might be able to shake things up late on.

But it looks like a great chance for Sagan to put the seal on the Ciclamina jersey and I think Bora will drill it all day in order to try to deliver him with as few opponents as possible on that final kicker. Or knowing Sagan, he'll just get himself in the break of the day, he's been threatening to get in breaks nearly every day. 

Update - 19:53: Davide Cimolai said before the race started that he was targeting this stage - "the dream is to win the Grado-Gorizia stage in my region (right)". Also, he will become a dad soon, the wife could well be at the finish, and we know how many times guys win when family are at the finish.. He has to be added as we'll be kicking ourselves afterwards if he is up there. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Gianni Moscon at 40/1 with 365

0.5pts win on Remi Cavagna at 50/1 with 365

0.5pts win on Mikkel Honore at 40/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Stefano Oldani at 125/1 with 365

0.3pts e/w on Andrea Vendrame at 28/1 with Betway

2pts win on Sagan at 3.8 with Betway. 

0.5pts e/w on Davide Cimolai at 22/1 with Betway - if you haven't had a bet yet and don't want to back all these guys, I'd drop Honore and add Cimolai. 

Matchbets:

To come