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Published on Friday, 19 March 2021 19:05

Milano Sanremo

Saturday 20th March

Milan to Sanremo, 299Km

Back to the normal spring time running of MSR after the highly unusual August race in 30 degree heat last year. Wout was a great winner for us last year at 13/2, he's a lot shorter this year, can he make it two wins in a row?

He was superb last year, jumping after Alaphilippe's explosive attack, the only one who was able to do so, descended like Sean Kelly and caught him before the bottom of the descent off the Poggio. And there was only going to be one winner in that sprint, despite the fact Alaphilippe had won his MSR in a similar sprint the year before. 

Whichever way you look at it, MSR is a race to savour and look forward to. It's even more of an endurance challenge for riders and viewers alike this year at 299kms long, the longest race of the year by a long way, all of which will be broadcast, from start to finish.. They had to change the route away from the busy tourist-filled coastline last year, but this year they revert back to the traditional course that runs along the Liguerian coast, before its traditional finale over the Cipressa and Poggio climbs.

One other key point to note with this year's race is that teams are back up to 7 in each team, after it was reduced to just 6 riders per team last year - this could make it a tiny bit easier to control the race, as teams will have more riders at the pointy end when it comes to the crucial last 30kms. 

The Race

Luck plays a massive part in this race - an untimely puncture or one of the many nervous crashes can put paid to your chances. The series of climbs along the route, coupled with the monster distance, means that there are a lot of very tired legs before they even reach the 'climax' of the race over the Cipressa and the Poggio. 

First run in 1907, it is known as 'The Sprinters Classic' with the Giro Di Lombardia in the Autumn known as 'The Climbers Classic'. But as we know, it's not just sprinters win the MSR and it's not just climbers win Lombardia! In fact, in the last 5 editions, only Arnaud Démare could be classed as a sprinter winner, with the rest going to 'Classics' men.

Eddy Merckx has the most wins in the race with seven, more recently Eric Zabel has won four, but famously threw away a fifth title when celebrating too early, Oscar Freire mugging him on the line. Sean Kelly has two wins, the best of which was after his breath-taking descent of the Poggio in 1992, showing that the Poggio can decide winners coming down it, as well as up it.

John Degenkolb became the second German in two years to win the race in 2015 after Gerard Ciolek in 2013, joining Eric Zabel and Rudi Altig as the only German winners of the race. Before Vincenzo Nibali last year, Pippo Pozzato was the last Italian winner of the race in 2006, which marked the end of a good run for the Italians, with Petacchi winning in 2005, Bettini in 2003 and Cippolini in 2002. And in 2017 Michal Kwiatkowski became the first ever Polish rider to win the race with his lunge on the finish line beside Alaphilippe and Sagan. Vincenzo Nibali sent the home fans in to raptures in 2018 with his ballsy late attack and kamikaze descent off the Poggio to secure a fine solo victory, the first Italian winner since Pippo Pozzato in 2006. 

The Route

The route is similar to previous years, with a long, boring introduction to the key final part of the race. With 135kms gone they start climbing the first main obstacle of the day, the Colle del Giovo. It's not diffficult, but from Acqui Terme the road is rising for the next 36kms until it eventually tops out with 171kms gone. 

After the little bumps of the three Capos they hit the bottom of the Cipressa with 271kms gone and this is where it will start to get serious. The road is wide but there can be a lot of tension in the peloton leading in to it as all teams want to be near the front. The Cipressa is 5.6kms long at an average of 4.1%, we should see some early attacks go and should see the peloton lose maybe a quarter of whoever's left.

A quick descent and they are back on the coast again for the flat run to the Poggio. Any breakaway riders need to work extremely hard here as every second counts on the Poggio. With just over 10kms to go they turn right off the main coastal road as the road forks in two and start the Poggio di Sanremo. It's not that long as just 3.7kms, nor that hard at just 3.7% average (max of 8%), but the fact that it comes after 289kms of riding that makes it tough. It starts steady enough but rises in gradient at various points on the way up.

Once over the top it's the frightening descent back down to Sanremo, there's only 5.4kms to go once they go over the top. At the bottom, there are just over 2kms left to the finish on the Via Roma, so not much time to get organised, it's every man for himself. There's that infamous right-hander with 750m to go, but after that it's more or less dead straight to the line.

The Weather

It's going to be a little chilly, around 10 degrees only, with a small chance of rain, but mostly sunny. The main thing to concern the race will be the wind speed and direction, it's going to be a NNE wind of around 15-16kmh which means it will be a tail wind for most of the day, but a cross wind coming at them from their right as they hit the crucial part of the Poggio where the attacks come. In places it might even feel like a headwind. But then they have a tailwind again all the way to the finish. 

Course Details

Contenders and Favourites

This time last year the betting saw Wout at 13/2, Caleb at 7/1, MVDP and Sagan at 8/1, with Alaphilippe a massive-looking 16/1 in hindsight. I was very confident in a big result from Wout and I wasn't disappointed, landing the odds for us in style. Caleb Ewan didn't last the pace and he finished almost 14 minutes down, VDP finished in 143th, with Sagan an unlucky 4th for the e/w backers. Between Sagan and Alaphilippe was Michael Matthews, filling the last podium spot at 16/1.

So how's it going to be run this year? Well, you'd think similar to last year, in that we'll see the big attacks come at the top of the Poggio, then it's just a matter of who makes the final selection and who doesn't. The guys at the top of the betting are so strong, that if two, three, four or five of them get away, it's unlikely they'll be pulled back. But with the way racing has been going this season so far, will we see some other tactics come in to play and riders try something else? 

Mathieu Van Der Poel took off last Sunday in Tirreno Adriatico because he was cold.. and rode over 50kms on his own before falling over the finish line. Could he try something similar here on the Cipressa? Could some other strong outsiders decide to gang up and try something, a little like the 'Plot Belge' we saw in Paris Nice when all the Belgian mates went off the front on a boring, flat stage? It's possible. I think we will see attacks earlier than usual, about 95% of the peloton know that if things kick off at the top of the Poggio with the top three they will not win, so they have to try something else. 

Can it end in a sprint? It's possible too.. This race used to be one for the sprinters, but the last sprinter to win it was Arnaud Démare back in 2016. DQS have two options if Alaphilippe isn't feeling 100% and it comes to a sprint, with Ballerini probably more likely to hold on over the Poggio than Bennett. Should the top 3 guys mark each other out of it like in Gent-Wevelgem last year, then it's possible a slowing at the front will allow the peloton to come back at them - remember, they are back to having 7 on a team again so there will be more bodies willing to pull and chase. 

Wout Van Aert - 7/2 best price 

Not much to say about him that hasn't been said already. I was all over him last year, thought he had a superb chance based on his form coming in to the race, and he did not disappoint. Arguably he's in even better form this year, after beating off the sprinters, climbing with the best of them and winning the TT, beating Ganna to boot in Tirreno-Adriatico. He came in to Strade a little under-cooked, and was unable to match MVDP's accelerations, but he hit TA with all guns blazing, winning two stages and finishing 2nd, 3rd twice, 9th and 13th on the other stages. He's got a decent team here with him, but really they are only here to look after him should he have a mechanical or need food/drinks, he can do the rest himself. Should it come down to a 2, 3 or 4 man shootout at the finish, he's probably got the sprint to beat them. 

Mathieu Van der Poel - 13/5 best price

All eyes will be on him again to see if he can repeat what his grandfather, Raymond Poulidor, did in 1961 in winning MSR. Absolutely devastating in Strade Bianche, he put out enough watts to launch one of Elon Musk's rockets in to space when he attacked Alaphilippe on the final hill. He couldn't go with the attack of Alaphilippe and Wout last year though, got caught a little flat-footed. Will he be the one attacking this year at the top? Or will he go early on the Cipressa to shake things up a bit? Would not be the least bit surprising if he does. 

He too packs a superb sprint, we've seen that already this season with his wins in the UAE Tour and Tirreno, so he can also win from a reduced sprint at the finish amongst puncheurs. Not the worst team with him, has lots of experience in Sbaragli, De Bondt and Vakoc, but once things hit the fan half way up the Poggio, you'd imagine he'll be on his own. Another with a massive chance, another superstar we will have the pleasure of watching rip the race up on Saturday. 

Julian Alaphilippe - 13/2 best price

Runner up last year, winner the year before, Alaphilippe knows when to press the button at the top of the Poggio, in the way Peter Sagan used to not so long ago. An explosive attack last year saw him pull away, Wout nearly caught him, but he kicked again approaching the summit, and it was almost enough to see him home solo. But he was unable to hold off a charging Wout, the chaser always has the advantage over the escaper on the Poggio I feel. And he was unable to outsprint him.

And I fear it will be a similar story this year - he can attack, but there are 2 or 3 guys who will chase him down, and would be faster than him in a sprint.. so does he persist with the attack and hope that he just has the legs on them this time, or does he play the team game and calm things down at the front to give his sprinters a chance of winning.. He did win a group sprint among a group of 10 in 2019, but the fact that Oliver Naesen finished 2nd tells you all you need to know about how much easier that sprint was compared to trying to beat WVA or MVDP. 

Sam Bennett - 16/1 best price

And one of those sprinters is of course Sam Bennett.. you are basically taking about 14/1 that he will get over the Poggio with the leading group, because if he does, he'd be about 2/1 to win the sprint. He was right there one minute last year, looking ok, then suddenly he was in a world of pain at the back fighting just to hold the wheels until eventually cracking. It was a similar story to stage 6 in Paris Nice, he was 50/1 to win it, but suddenly as they got over the Cat 2 climb he was still there and his price tumbled to 3/1 in play.. And he was hanging in on the final kick to the line before exploding badly again and coming to a standstill. 

But, he has shown he can get over hills harder than this before.. he has got some great training in in Paris Nice, including going in the  break one day, and he is the best sprinter in the field so far this year. If, and if it's a big if, the race is a little calmer than people expect, and if he's on a really great day and DQS put a man or two with him, he might just get over the top within catching distance of the leaders. 

Davide Ballerini - 16/1

Not a bad back-up, second sprinter to have in your lineup, along with Julian Alaphilippe..Ballerini has also been in superb form this year, winning Omloop for me at 22/1 and two more stages in Provence. He was also 3rd in the tough uphill stage 3 finish in TA behind Wout and MVDP, but never looked like passing either of them. He's very good at getting over the hilly stuff, probably better than Bennett, so it will be interesting to see who gets the team support up the Poggio if both are in contention and one is struggling a little more than the other.. 

He's done this race twice - he was 19th in 2019 while riding for Astana and 140th in 2017, but everybody knows that riders get better when they join DQS.. He had a tough Tirreno along with all the rest who rode it, but seemed to finish it strongly, coming 2nd to Merlier in the final sprint (but the break had won the stage). 

Michael Matthews - 20/1

Matthews always seems to be around 16-20/1 to win this, and has been close on a number of occassion. In 2015 he was outsprinted by Dege and Kristoff, in 2018 he could only finish 6th in the sprint for 2nd behind Nibali, and last year he won the sprint for 3rd behind Wout and Alaphilippe. He's also finished 12th twice. We know of his prowess in getting over hilly courses like this one, and he's sure to be there or thereabouts again on Saturday, but it worried me that he couldn't finish off that stage 6 in PN, when hot favourite to take it.

He never looked likely to get to the front, he couldn't even get past Laporte, but Roglic was too strong for both of them. I'd have liked to have seen him win that to have more confidence in him, he's never been the best at a flat sprint, especially in recent years, but he has some decent, strong guys that might be able to help at the finish should it come down to a bunch sprint. 

Caleb Ewan - 22/1

Short one this, I don't think he makes it over the top with the lead group. 

Arnaud Démare - 28/1

Former winner, he's also finished 3rd and 6th, he's not quite clicked in to gear yet this year and might find this a bit out of reach again this year. Beaten by Ballerini in the first stage of Provence, beaten by Bennett in stage 1 of PN, and nowhere to be seen for the rest of the race, he missed the main move in KBK, but did win the group sprint.. for 37th place. I just don't think he has the form to win it this year either. 

Others

They're the main favourites above, but there are others who could get involved. I like Soren Kragh Andersens chances, he's just the kind of guy to try something a little early or possibly to jump just before Alaphiippe does and maybe be able to hang on to him when he comes past. 50/1 each way might interest some. Filippo Ganna is one that could try something from afar and time trial his way to victory like he has done in a number of races in the last 12 months, but I can't see him holding this field at bay. 

Matej Mohoric has finished in the top 10 twice, 5th in 2019 was a great result, finishing just behind Sagan and ahead of one Wout Van Aert. He seems to go well at the end of a long race, but unless he attacks and gets away early I can't see him getting away on the way up the Poggio.. but if he's near the front going over the top, he might be able to get away on the way down, being one of the best descenders in the peloton. 

Giacomo Nizzolo, Alexander Kristoff, Nacer Bouhanni, Matteo Trentin and Magnus Cort Neilsen are other sprinters who will be hoping it comes back together on the run in to the finish, of that lot, Bouhanni seems to be coming in to a bit of form lately and could well be near the front going over the top (he has finished 4th, 6th and 8th here in the past) and Magnus Cort showed in the final stage of Paris Nice that he has good legs.. but that was over 97kms, this is a different game altogether. 

Greg Van Avermaet is a huge price at 150/1, but he looks like a fading force at the moment, same with Vincenzo Nibali. The only other guy I fancy a little bit at bigger prices is Alex Aranburu - I tipped him last year at 33/1, he finished 7th (or 5th in the sprint) and he's 80/1 this year.. He looks Astana's best chance for a win and should be able to get over the Poggio in the first chasing group and could have a chance at the e/w.. Boyles are paying 5 places and that's worth an interest. 

So - just like last year, almost an impossible race to call again. So many factors to take in to account, but to almost repeat exactly what I said last year, I'm going with the guy who looks to be one of the fittest and strongest at the moment - Wout Van Aert. I think we might get a similar scenario to what we had last year with JA attacking and only a very small, select group going with him.. including Wout.. and he might just be the best of them when it comes to the sprint finish.

He had a tough race in Tirreno, but so too had MVDP, and judging by how he destroyed Ganna et al in the final TT, he is in seriously good shape at the moment. Alaphilippe had an 'easier' Paris Nice, and has had longer to rest, so he's obviously a massive danger to the top two, and if things don't fall in to place, and the marking starts too early, we could see DQS with 2 or maybe even 3 guys in with a chance at the sprint. I took some 18/1 on Sam Bennett a few weeks back, I'm still not hugely confident, but if he can be within 20" going over the top, he might just be in with a shout. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Wout Van Aert at 7/2 with various

0.5pts e/w on Alex Aranburu at 80/1 with Boyles paying 5 places

0.5pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 14/1 with various

0.5pts e/w on SKA at 33/1 with Boyles paying 5 places

2pts on Alex Aranburu to finish in the top 10 at evens with Betway

Matchbets

Aranburu to beat Kwiatkowski, Laporte to beat Trentin and Kristoff to beat Gaviria - 2pts at 13/8 

Felline to beat Van Avermaet - 2pts at 7/4 (Felline rode really well in that crazy stage 5 of Tirreno, Van Avermaet has been going ok, but the price differential is too big, I think they'll be close)

Alaphilippe to beat Schachmann and Bouhanni to beat Viviani - 2pts at 6/5 with Bet365