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Published on Saturday, 26 June 2021 22:44

TDF 2021 Stage 2

Perros Guirec - Mur de Bretagne

June 27th, 183.5kms

Like stage 1, there are again 6 categorised climbs on this stage, but unlike stage 1 where they were spread out from start to finish, in this stage there are five of them packed in to the last 80kms, including the finish on top of the Mur de Bretagne.

Having said that, there is barely a flat metre of road from the start of the stage with rolling hills the order of the day, making it another stressful and tiring day in the saddle. The Tour last came up here in 2018, and like this year they made two ascensions of the finish, the first with 16.5kms to go, this year it's with 15kms to go. 

The one big difference is that this time they hit the bottom of the Mur for the second time out of a sharp turn so they are almost at a standstill starting it, and not the long run-in they've done in the past. Positioning will be vital and it could be that we see some GC contenders lose some time again, like we did in 2018 when some GC favs like Barguil, Uran, Froome and Bernal lost some seconds and Dumoulin lost 53" after suffering a puncture on the run in to the climb. 

Stage 1 Review

Well that was all a bit crazy wasn't it. Crashes marred and almost ruined the opening stage of the race, I say almost, because Julian Alaphilippe's attack and victory almost made up for the carnage that had gone before it. He was sensational - as Van der Poel put it "he attacked like a rocket" on the steepest part, and, incredibly, held it all the way to the line. Behind, Pogacar and Roglic didn't want to show themselves too much and didn't want to work together, MVDP jumped after them but he was disappointing, he had left it too late and never looked like bridging the gap.

Michael Matthews will be ruing a brilliant chance of a fantastic stage win, winning the sprint, about the only guy in the first group who wasn't a GC candidate. MAL, Richie Porte and several others saw their chance go up in smoke in the first day, others weren't so lucky, such as Jasha Sutterlin, Ignatas Konovalovas and Cyril Lemoine who didn't finish, and Chris Froome, Philippe Gilbert and Marc Soler amongst lots of others who were badly hurt and we may not see start tomorrow.  

The Route

A start on one of the northern tips of Brittany in Perros-Guirec, they head south for most of the day over the rolling hills of Brittany, skirting along the coast for most of the first 110kms. Although the profile looks flat enough, it's anything but, and they take on three Cat 4 climbs from between the 72nd and 115th kilometre. They are all pretty short and easy though, but they can start to tire, especially if the wind is blowing and the stress levels are up as it's still only the 2nd stage. 

As they head away from the coast after the 3rd Cat 4 the road continues to rise and fall, and they pass through the village of the Mur de Bretagne with 18kms to go, where they climb the Cat 4 Cote du Village de Mur De Bretagne, a little drag of 1.6kms at 4.1% to get things warmed up. Just a kilometre later they start on the Mur, and this is a little tougher. Officially the Cat 3 climb is 2kms at 6.8%, but there is a section for 500m after 500m that is 12% average, it was here that Martin kicked away in 2018 and Vuillermoz did in 2015. But they should take it all together the first time up, bar come attackers who might chance their luck with just 15kms to go. 

But they will be reeled in in the next 13kms or so as they chase back towards the start of the climb again, most of which is a descent back to Mur de Bretagne. This time they come at the hill from the east and turn sharply right, starting the climb almost from a standing start. The charge in to that final bend could decide where you finish the stage and whether you lose time or not. 

The final climb starts dragging up with 3kms to go, then kicks up to 7% with 2kms to go, 12% with 1.5kms to go, then eases back to 6.2% with 1km to go and is almost flat for the last 500m to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

Julian Alaphilippe is the 2/1 favourite, and you'd have to think if he attacks hard like he did today then he will be unbeatable tomorrow again. DQS were superb today and I can see them bossing the finale here again taking Alaphilippe to the turn on to the Mur right at the front of the peloton again, ready to explode away. It's a different sort of hill though, and it's unlikely he'll be given as much freedom tomorrow, especially now that he's in yellow and potentially capable of mounting a GC push..

You'd think Roglic and Pogacar will be keeping a much closer eye on him and after keeping their cards close to their chests today, they might look to lay down more of a marker tomorrow and look to put a few seconds in to their rivals. You could say that Roglic was vindicated in not giving it too much going after Alaphilippe as he recovered enough to sprint to 3rd and take some bonus seconds. There were good rides and a good start too for the likes of Jack Haig, Wilko Kelderman, Thomas, Chaves, Gaudu, Higuita and Mollema who all finished in the top 10. Nibali, Quintana, Lutsenko, Fuglsang, Uran and Mas weren't far off either and didn't lose any time. 

Can any of them challenge for the stage tomorrow? Mollema seems to have good legs and he's the kind of guy who could attack and maybe be given a bit of leeway, but it'll be very hard for him to hold off these guys. Richie Carapaz could have the kick needed to get away with the likes of Alaphilippe, but the fact he lost 5" today as he wasn't able to go with the front guys doesn't bode well for that. 

So it comes down possibly to the puncheur guys again - MVDP is 2nd fav at 11/2, but to be honest, he looked like he struggled with the steepness of that hill today and tomorrow's is just as bad, maybe his heavier carcass is too much versus the featherweights. 

Michael Matthews is 12/1 and could well pull off a monster ride like he did today, but I think there might not be enough road after the steep parts for him to recover and ready himself for the sprint again. Wout Van Aert didn't look great today either and I don't think this is a finish for him.

Dan Martin has been here, done it, bought the t-shirt, can he do it again? Well he lost 5'33" today so he was obviously caught up in the crashes, but according to their race report he didn't go down so that's a good thing. Michael Woods wasn't so lucky though, he went down and we're waiting to hear on his condition, he lost over 9 minutes. 

Benoit Cosnefroy changed bikes about 4 times today, it was a very frustrating day for him, but he didn't look like he had gone down badly, he didn't look injured, although he did lose almost 10 mins. If he isn't injured, this is a finish he might like too, he has a good kick on him and might be able to go with the likes of Alaphilippe when they kick.

David Gaudu did well today to finish in 7th, and he was going really well earlier in the season, his 3rd behind Pogacar and Alaphilippe in LBL one of the highlights, his win in the final stage of Itzulia ahead of Roglic being another one. He could be a dark horse tomorrow at 33/1 to land a podium spot.

The other Frenchie that might go well is Pierre Latour, he was the only one today to really give it a go to go after Alaphilippe's attack, but faded and was dropped by a few seconds by the finish. In 2018 he finished 2nd here behind Martin, he could well go close to a podium spot again, or even the 4th place with Boyles at 25/1, let's hope he didn't go too deep today. Bauke Mollema finished 9th today, he finished 7th on this stage in 2018, he looks a big price at 66/1 to potentially go close again, and he could well finish ahead of Kelderman at a nice odds-against price of 11/8.

It's really hard to make a case for anyone else other than Alaphilippe, but he did go very deep today as he even admitted himself after.. will he be able to go that deep again tomorrow, with the yellow jersey in mind? He might, he looks in terrific shape and DQS will get him to the right place at the right time you can be sure, like they did so expertly today. I just can't back him at that price, and instead going to go for a few guys at bigger prices who might chase him home, or if he's left a bit too much on the road today, they might just win it. Roglic shouldn't be far off either, it's very likely he'll be fighting for bonus seconds again. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Dan Martin at 25/1 with Boyles paying 4 places

0.5pts e/w on David Gaudu at 33/1 with Boyles paying 4 places

0.5pts e/w on Pierre Latour at 25/1 with Boyles

2pts on Primoz Roglic to finish in the top 3 at evens with Unibet

Matchbets:

Matthews to beat Colbrelli, Roglic to beat Pogacar and Alaphilippe to beat MVDP - 2pts at 17/10

Mollema to beat Kelderman - 2pts at 11/8 with 365