Details

Published on Wednesday, 05 May 2021 12:50

Points Jersey Betting 

Who will win the Points Jersey at the 2020 Giro?

The leader of the points competition in the Giro wears the Cyclamen jersey.. Cyclawhat? Cyclamen - named after the Alpine flower of the same colour, it was introduced in 1970 (changed from a red colour). 

The organisers switched back to red again in 2010 (it had been red from 1967-1969) and called it the Maglia Rosso Passione, but in 2017 they switched it back to Cyclamen in honour of the 100th edition of the race. It was won that year by sprinter Fernando Gaviria, in 2019 by sprinter Elia Viviani and in 2020 by sprinter Arnaud Demare. 

Despite three sprinters winning it in a row, the Giro's 'sprinters' points jersey can often be difficult for pure sprinters to win, such is the amount of climbing that needs to be done over the three weeks. It's difficult, but not impossible - as was clearly demonstrated by Elia Viviani last year and Fernando Gaviria in 2017. I didn't give either of them much chance of finishing to be honest, but both did, hanging in there over the mountains. 

So where does this route sit in terms of being climber or sprinter friendly? Well, they don't have many opportunities at all, with potentially only 5 pure sprinters stages, with maybe another two that could be a reduced sprint with some sprinters having being shelled on the hills in the run-in. Stages 2, 5, 7 and 10 look to be for the sprinters, and it could well be that we see some sprinters going home on the first rest day on Tuesday the 18th May. 

Those that hang around have stage 13, potentially stage 15 if they are able to handle some tough little hills on the circuit in Slovenia and possibly 18 too. Some of the tougher guys like Sagan and maybe Nizzolo could also survive over the final hill on stage 3 that comes 15kms from the finish. 

As the points are skewed more towards sprint stages it is designed to make it a little easier for sprinter types to win it again this year, hence we have mostly sprinters at the top of the market, and the betting is dominated by points competition machine, Peter Sagan, who is the 4/5 favourite, with Nizzolo, Merlier, Gaviria, Groenewegen and Ewan all near the top of the betting. 

How the points are awarded

The number of points up for grabs depends on the stage - the sprint stages offer more points in a bid to try to ensure the sprinters jersey is won by a sprinter! They changed the allocation of points in 2017, but have kept it exactly the same again this year. 

Category A+B stages (Stages 2, 5, 7, 10, 13, 18) they offer points for the first 15 riders in the following allocation: 50-35-25-18-14-12-10-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1. For the Intermediate Sprints (marked with a purple S on the route maps) there are points for the first eight over the line at the first intermediate sprint of the day, allocated as follows: 20-12-8-6-4-3-2-1. With 20 points up for grabs for each intermediate sprint, they could play a big part in the outcome of the jersey.. The second intermediate sprint awards points for the 'intermediate sprint contest' but is not tied to the Cyclamen competition. 

Category C stages: (Stages 3, 4, 6, 8, 12, 15) there are points for the first 10 as follows: 25, 18, 12, 8, 6, 5, 3, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first five: 10, 6, 3, 2, 1, same as last year.

Category D stages: (Stages 1, 9, 11, 14, 16, 17, 19, 20 and 21) offer points for the first 10 as follows: 15, 12, 9, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1. For the TV there are points for the first three: 8, 4, 1. 

The Contenders 

This is a really trappy contest to bet on at the best of times, as you are gambling on your rider actually staying at the race and making it all the way to Milan, as well as hoping that if he does stay he takes enough points to win the competition. You can either be a good sprinter and look to win as many of the pure sprints as possible, or else be consistent and place in all of the sprint stages, including the hilly ones the pure sprinters don't make.

Also, you need to pop up for intermediate points whenever possible - with 20pts available to the winner, they are worth trying to get in the break on some stages to try to take the points.. Stage 6 for example has a sprint after 55kms that a sprinter could take if he infiltrates the break, then sits back and rolls home at his own pace for the rest of the stage, same possibly on stages 8, 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 20, early intermediate sprints could be taken by someone in the break. But not only that, as there are points awarded to 8 riders on the Cat A+B stages and 5 for the C stages, if a small break has gone up the road there will still be points available for the peloton to fight for at the sprint. 

Peter Sagan (4/5) is the master at this competition, winning it at his leisure in the Tour de France for what seems forever, only Sam Bennett has been able to stop him in recent years. Arnaud Demare denied him a Cyclamin jersey last year on his debut in the Giro, he was just too good for Sagan in the sprints, winning four of them to amass 200pts from them alone of his 233pt total. Peter Sagan took one brilliant stage win when soloing away from his break companions, but other than that he was scrapping for points wherever he could, finishing 2nd four times

He showed us that he was back to near his best at Romandie, winning a stage and also showing on stage 3 that he can get over the hilly stages still, something that will potentially see him earn points on days when the sprinters are dropped here too. He is exactly the kind of guy who will know when to go on the attack for those intermediate points I mention above and there are several stages where he could be in with a chance of victory from reduced bunch sprints after lumpy finishes, like stages 10, 15 and 18. 

Giacomo Nizzolo (7/1) has won this points competition twice without ever having won a stage in the Giro, I would think he would happily give up the points jersey competition for a stage win this year.. but he might just be able to pull off both this time. He's a tough sprinter, almost in the mould of Sagan and Colbrelli, so he could make it to sprint out a finish when the likes of Ewan and Groenewegen have been shelled out. If he gets it right, and his legs are good, he could even take Sagan in a sprint.

He is the Italian road champion and European Road Champion and those jerseys add pride when riding the Giro, so I expect we'll be seeing a lot of Nizzolo. He's was in good form in the classics too, finishing 4th in De Panne and 2nd in Gent Wevelgem, but has been off training at altitude for a few weeks of the month he's been away from racing for. I think he could mount a big challenge to Sagan and he's one that should make it all the way to Milan, barring injury or a crash. 

TIm Merlier (10/1) makes his Grand Tour debut, and although Alpecin Fenix are ProTeam and not WorldTour, they punch well above their weight and win far more often than some of the WorldTour teams. Merlier and MVDP are two of the main men for Alpecin, Merlier has been in great form this year, winning some sprints with ease. Le Samyn, GP JP Monsere, Koksijde Classic and 3rd at DDV, he had a great spring campaign and showed he can handle himself on some hilly days as well as flat stages.

But will he make it all the way to Turin? What are his objectives in his first Grand Tour? The rest of the team don't look up to much, so a stage win might well be all they will want out of this race and might forego wasting energy on the points competition to try to achieve that goal.. the points jersey on the back of that would be a nice bonus I think. 

Fernando Gaviria just isn't good enough as far as I'm concerned and he's terrible value at 14/1. Dylan Groenewegen is back in sprinting again after his long ban, and comes here in great shape from what I'm hearing. But he will struggle on any of the hilly days, and a 3-week Tour after such a long layoff will be really hard on the body, so even if he takes 2 or 3 stage wins he might still not come close to winning the competition, or maybe even finishing the race. But I do think he is capable of winning a stage and have backed him for stage 2 at 6/1, sneak preview for you there on my thoughts on that stage :-)

David Dekker is also here and although he was in good form earlier this year, forget about him for this as I've been told he's only going to stay for 10 stages. 

Caleb Ewan is probably the best sprinter here and has Roger Kluge and Jasper De Buyst with him, two of the best leadout men in the business. He's sure to be taking a stage or 3, but apparently he wants to try to win stages at all three Grand Tours this year, so that probably means he'll be packing his bags early with some stage win trophies in his suitcase. 

Elia Viviani (16/1) finally won a race for Cofidis, but I can't see it kick-starting a big winning streak for him. He will not beat Ewan or Groenewegen in the sprints, maybe not even Sagan and Merlier, so it will be slim picking for him. And he'll struggle on some of the hilly ones, so not for me. 

With the new points structure leaning towards the sprint stages, it's hard to see any of the GC men mounting a challenge, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.. If Evenepoel is at his best he could run amok and win stages all over the race, including the TTs.. 

But it looks like it should be Peter Sagan's for the taking, he will be consistent all through the race, will place in all the sprints, should take a win or two or three and will also go on breaks on the mountain stages in order to hoover up those 20pts. And seeing as he is leaving Bora soon, a good showing here could add a lot more weight to his contract negotiations.. 

Giacomo Nizzolo should be there or thereabouts though, and if gets a bit of luck he might even land his first stage win and maybe even take the jersey. 

UPDATE: 7/5/2021, 09:30 - Crucial update. I'm reliably informed this morning (from my source that gave me the info re. MVDP not doing Omloop and Dylan coming back at the Giro before the news broke) that Nizzolo will be leaving the race early, potentially as early as stage 11. This is dynamite news and please keep it hushed for now. It changes everything with regards my bet on Nizzolo, if you can cash out, please do, sorry for misleading but I genuinely fancied his chances up until hearing this news just this morning when I woke up.

Instead, I've had a rethink on the other contenders and I think an e/w on Elia Viviani might just be the bet to have now. Viviani has had to choose between the Tour and the Giro this year, and with the Olympics coming up he will want to get a full race in his legs I think so is more likely to stay to the end. With Ewan going home early to try to win stages in all three Tours this year, and now Nizzolo going home too, then it leaves Merlier, Gaviria, Groenewegen and Viviani as the next sprinters after Sagan.

I'm not sure Merlier or Groenewegen will finish either, and I'd think Viviani might just outscore Gaviria in some stages, what with being on home roads. He's got Consonni and Sabatini, two of his reliable minders with him and even if he finishes 3rd behind Sagan and say Groenewegen or Gaviria, then the e/w lands at an acceptable price of 16/1. And who knows, Sagan looked a little ropey at times this season, if the bet on him goes tits-up Viviani might even win it.. 

Some matchbets have to be taken now too - Viviani to beat Nizzolo is 6/4 with Bet365, that is probably the bet of the race now, if Nizzolo pulls out, then Viviani only has to finish, if Viviani pulls out too, then stakes back as a void. The only danger is if Nizzolo happens to be in the lead, if say Sagan has had to abandon early and Nizzolo has been on fire, but the risk of that is extremely low I think. Max 10pts stake on that. 

Also Unibet are offering 7/20 on Sagan to beat Nizzolo and Viviani to beat Ewan - seeing as Nizzolo and Ewan are supposed to be going home, then the double on that pays a nice 5/4 and all we need is for Sagan and Viviani to finish for it to be a winner. And if one of them doesn't finish the stake goes on to the remaining bet so it should still be a winner. 5pts at 5/4 

Please don't mention the specifics of the news on Twitter if you do want to interact, the less that gets out about this the better, and the more info like this I can pass on as I get it.

Recommendations:

3pts win on Peter Sagan at 4/5

1pt e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 7/1

1pt e/w on Elia Viviani at 16/1 with various

10pts on Viviani to beat Nizzolo at 6/4 with Bet365

5pts on Sagan to beat Nizzolo and Viviani to beat Ewan at 5/4 with Unibet