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- Published on Thursday, 06 May 2021 00:13
Giro 2021 Contenders
The battle for pink
But of course it would be foolish to just confine any thoughts of the winner to just these three guys, you only have to look at the last two year's editions to see that 'outsiders' can and do win this race! Richard Carapaz was 80/1, Tao was matched at 340 on Betfair and Jai Hindley at 510..
What's it going to take to win this race then this year? Well, it starts and ends with a TT, but it's not got a lot of TT kilometres by Grand Tour standards at just 38.9kms. Having said that though, the majority of the top GC candidates are pretty evenly matched when it comes to time trialling, except for Remco Evenepoel who beat Rohan Dennis and Stefan Kung in the Volta ao Algarve TT last year over 20kms.. Joao Almeida is another who will like the TTs, he will see them as an opportunity to take time off his rivals, maybe even to win it on the final stage.
The race is going to be won in the mountains though, of which there are plenty. They will need to be on their guard as early as stage 3 with the late hills potentially a booby trap for any GC men sleeping at the wheel. Stage 4 will be the first hilly test though on a stage that finishes with 9-13% gradients up the Colle Passerino, we'll start to see if anyone is not 100% fit.
Stage 6 is the first summit finish of the race, up to San Giacomo, but it could well be that the break wins the stage and there might be a bit of a stalemate behind with the GC men. Stages 8 and 9 could be tricky for the GC men too, 8 has a short but steep final climb through narrow roads through olive groves, someone is bound to be caught out by a touch of wheels or a split. 9 is a really tough day in the saddle with 7 climbs to get over, including the final one to Campo Felice, which has a gravel surface on gradient of 8.2% for the last 1500m after they come out of the tunnel.
You just know too that stage 11 (above) could be a significant stage in this race, with it's 2,500m of climbing and 4 sectors of gravel roads totalling 35kms of the final 70kms! Someone is going to be a big loser and someone a big winner on this day. It could be a day that makes or breaks Ineos.
Stage 14 should see the first big shakeout in the GC though, with the summit finish on Monte Zoncolan. It may be the 'easier' side, but this is a horrible finish to a stage and we'll see a lot of guys suffering. There will be time gaps all over the place, but you'd expect the likes of Bernal and Yates to be to the fore.
Stage 16 has four brutal climbs, including the Cima Coppi, but I've a feeling that this could be one that is dominated by the breakaway and a bit of a truce is called behind, seeing as the final summit comes some 20kms from the finish. Stage 17 could well be the one with the fireworks though, we could see an all out assault by some riders on the San Valentino, knowing that if some riders get detached they may not get back on and could lose some serious time by the end of the stage. Expect lots of attacks on the final Sega di Ala climb too, it's hard from the start, 10.4% for the first 6kms and the section from 4.5 - 2kms to go averages 12.1%.
It's very possible that the entire top 10 is still up for decision as they enter the final 3 stages, and it is going to be a hell of a battle over stages 19 and 20 in the Alps. Alpe di Mera on stage 19 is a hard finish to a hard stage with gradients hitting 10% for the final half of the climb and stage 20's finish to Alpe Motta is tough, especially after they've already passed over the San Bernardino pass and the Splugenpass.
The race ends with what could be another crucial final TT, it could well be that we see the lead change hands on the final day again - if Evenepoel is within 30" of most other guys then he'll be able to take them in the TT.
In 2018 we saw Mitchelton Scott kill a lot of breaks as they went in search of finish line bonus seconds for Simon Yates. The tactic was to try to take as much time as possible from Dumoulin ahead of the final TT. And it was working, going in to the final TT on stage 16, his lead, a combination of time gaps and bonus seconds was 2'11" over Dumoulin, which Dumoulin cut to 56" after the TT, when he beat Yates by 1'15". Dumoulin pulled it back to just 28" after stage 18 to Prata Nevoso, but of course it was all irrelevant after stage 19 when Froome did his 'Landis' and Yates exploded, crashing down to 18th place.
Why raise this? Well, there are bonus seconds at the end of each stage this year again (10,6,4) and 3,2,1 for the first intermediate sprint in each stage. I think that we won't see the same chasing of the breaks like MS did in 2018 this year, as I don't think there's any GC hopeful really worried about his level versus the other guys in the TT. Ok, Remco and Almeida are a level above in the TT, but I think that Remco will lose time along the way somewhere and they mightn't have to worry too much about him. Also, it is in DQS' interest to let the breaks take the bonus seconds if Remco (and Almeida) are going well, they will prefer to not hand easy bonus seconds to the likes of Yates and Bernal.
So we could see a lot of breaks take stage wins I think in this year's race, there are so many stages that scream breakaway on paper. Could we see someone infiltrate a break some day that wins by 7 or 8 minutes and they suddenly become a GC threat? It also means that it will come down to man-against-man in terms of time gaps and less reliance on time bonuses. That should also lend itself to more attacking racing from the better climbers as they look to put time between themselves and their rivals on the road.
Contenders for Pink
Egan Bernal - Ineos (3/1 favourite with Betway)
Winner of the TDF, Tour de Suisse and Paris-Nice in 2019, Bernal was in superb form that year. 2020 was a mixed year for him, it started ok with a win in the Route d'Occitanie, then 2nd in the Tour de l'Ain behind Roglic (only 4" behind on the road, the rest was time bonuses).
Then in the Dauphiné we started to see some issues - after a strong 3rd place on stage 1, he tried to follow a Roglic attack on stage 2 on the Col de Porte, but couldn't follow and lost time. Again on stage 3 he couldn't follow the leaders and lost another 9". The next day he abandoned citing back pain.
The in the TDF it started well for him, as he moved in to 2nd place on stage 10, staying there until stage 13 when he slipped to 3rd, then the cracks really started appearing - he completely collapsed on stage 15 to Grand Colombier, losing 7'20" to Pog and Rog. The rest day wasn't enough and on stage 16 he lost a further 27', coming home in the grupetto. He was a DNS the next day, blaming the back pains again and also a knee issue.
2021 started slowly with 64th in the Etoile de Besseges, but then he went ok in the Tour de La Provence, taking 2nd on the key stage to Chalet Renard, but he looked ominous for the stage win until his team-mate Ivan Sosa took off and Bernal had to sit on and watch him ride in to the lead. His 3rd place in Strade Bianche behind MVDP and Alaphilippe was a stunning ride and a great sign ahead of the two stages with gravel sectors in this year's race.
In Tirreno there were some warning signs though too - stage 4 to the HC finish at Prati di Tivo saw him struggle to go with Pog and Yates, and lost 58", finishing behind the likes of Simon Carr and Matteo Fabbro.. not Giro winning form that.. Then the next day he also struggled on that crazy stage in the wet won by Van der Poel with Pogacar chasing him down, losing another 2 mins to Pogacar, but losing 2 mins was a reasonably good result on that stage, it moved him up to 4th in the GC, 3'30" behind the winner Pogacar and 30" off Landa's podium spot.
He has not raced in nearly 2 months since the end of TA, but is still top of the betting for this race. He has been an uneasy favourite in the last two weeks though, drifting slowly from below 2/1 at one point to around 7/2 now. A long break hasn't caused him problems in the past though, in 2019 he didn't ride from the end of Catalunya (31/3) to the start of the TDS (15/6), almost 2 1/2 months.. and he won that TDS in style before going on to win the TDF. Maybe a 2 month break is just what his back needs and I think Dave would not be risking him if he didn't think he was ready, there's always the Tour if he wasn't ready.
He comes here with a super-strong team, the strongest in the race, with Pavel Sivakov another GC hopeful and super-domestique if he needs him. They also have Castroviejo, Martinez, Narvaez, Puccio, Moscon and Ganna, a seriously powerful mountain train, should he call upon them to shred the peloton and thin it down to just the best climbers, from where he can make his move.
If he's on form, he should like stages 4, 6 and 9 ahead of the rest day, where we could see him put in some big digs to test the likes of Evenepoel. Stage 14 could be make or break though if his back isn't 100%, there are no hiding places on the slopes of Monte Zoncolan. Stages 17, 19 and 20 will either be his playgrounds or he might not even still be in the race, who knows..
And that's why he is unbackable (pardon the pun..) at just 3/1 or so at the moment - there are too many question marks over his back and whether he is 100% fit again. And not only that, but I'm hearing rumours that he's suffering from a lack of confidence and motivation at the moment, if he starts to struggle at all, it might start to fall apart for him.
The opening TT won't tell us much, but he shouldn't lose too much time to his GC rivals, but I think it is definitely worth holding off on him until maybe after stage 4 to reassess and decide whether to back him or not, if he loses time there, he will definitely lose time on stage 6 and 9 and it could be all over for him before the first rest day. And according to some rumours out there, he might not even be starting the Giro.. let's see how that pans out..
Simon Yates – Bike Exchange (7/2 generally)
SImon Yates traded to something like 1/5 to win the Giro back in 2018, and it was all looking good for him, that is until Chris Froome did the unbelievable and not only pulled back a 3'22" deficit on stage 19, but went 40" in to the lead after his monumental solo ride.
Yates had his heart broken that day and cracked badly, not only slipping out of the leader's jersey, but slid all the way off the podium and down to 18th place. He came home in the grupetto 46' down the next day, a broken man, and ended up 22nd on the GC.
He recovered from that with a fine ride in Poland to take the tough final stage and 2nd in the GC, then went to Spain for the Vuelta with renewed confidence and gained redemption with an assured and powerful win, taking the lead on stage 9 and never really looking back, bar two days when Jesus Herrada borrowed the jersey after a big break gap win.
The Giro in 2019 started really well for him with 2nd in the opening TT behind Roglic, but it never really clicked for him and losing over 3 mins on the stage 9 34.8km TT really killed his hopes of a top GC finish. He went to the Tour with no GC ambitions but came away with two stage wins after two great breakaway rides. He finished 49th on the GC..
2020 was a mixed year for him, but he took a good stage and overall win in Tirreno, winning solo on the climb to Sassotetto, not too dissimilar to the climb to San Giacomo on stage 6 of this race. He then went to the Giro and struggled on the Etna stage 3, losing over 3 minutes to GC rivals, but after a surviving through some sprint stages he was forced to abandon after testing postive for Coronavirus after stage 7.
This year has been going well so far for him - 10th in Tirreno, with a fine 2nd on stage 2 to Prati di Tivo behind the machine Pogacar, 9th overall in Catalunya, but lost 1'10" in the 18km TT. He was just unable to stay with the likes of Thomas, Woods, Kuss and brother Adam on the final climb of stage 4 to Port Aine, the brutal 18km length just getting to him in the steep last kilometre.. he lost just 11" though to his main GC rivals and helped him to 9th overall at the finish.
Then he went to the ToTA and impressed with overall victory, secured by his impressive 23km solo victory on stage 2, when he beat Sivakov by 41", with Vlasov a further 17" back and Hindley and Carthy another 19" back. He was also really impressive on stage 4 when he went away with Vlasov on the Boniprati's steeper slopes, only for Bilbao to join them on the descent and outsprint them for the win on Michele Scarponi's anniversary.
Those rides impressed me, he was strong, composed, confident and looked ready for this Giro. He has more experience than his big rivals and is a former GT winner, with also the experience of having led this race for a long way in 2018, so that novelty factor and the stress and tiredness that comes with leading the race shouldn't affect him as much now.
His problem is of course his team - he has Mikel Nieve who is good in the mountains, but too often is not there when he's really needed, Tanel Kangert will be solid and reliable but will disappear on the harder mountains, Nick Schultz is turning in to a really good rider though and he could be his main domestique when things get serious.
Other than that, Cam Meyer, Callum Scotson, Mick Hepburn and Chris Juul Jensen will be there to look after him on the flat stages and the lower slopes, but won't offer much support on the climbs.. but... I expect to see some of them placed strategically in breaks on some key stages, in an effort to help Yates later on should he try a long ranger, maybe even as early as stages 4, 6 and 9.
Matt White has done extensive recons in the car ahead of the race and he feels that a victory is well within Yates's grasp. And you can be sure he'll have planned exactly when and where the break support have to be on those certain stages if they are to try to pull off a master stroke. A definite contender in my book.
Remco Evenepoel – Deceuninck (4/1 with various)
'Overhyped' is a word that is bandied about a bit in recent weeks with regards to Evenepoels' chances in this Giro. He hasn't raced since August and has had to recover from a very serious injury following his crash in Lombardia. He's 21, it's his first Grand Tour, how on earth is he vying for favouritism and is just 2/1 to finish on the podium?
Well, let's look at what he did prior to Lombardia last year.. at 20 years of age he had entered four week-long stage races - San Juan, Algarve, Burgoa and POland - and won them ALL. San Juan he won the TT over 15kms, beating Ganna by 32" and easily held on to his lead for the rest of the race. Algarve, he attacked away from a strong group of climbers in the closing stages of the climb to Alto da Foia on stage 2 and flew to a superb stage victory to take the leader's jersey, then finished 3rd on the hilltop finish on stage 4 behind Lopez and Dan Martin (2.6kms at 9.4%), before destroying all his rivals in the final, flat, 20.3km TT to win by a comfortable 38".
Then on to Burgoa where he beat George Bennett, Mikel Landa, Esteban Chaves, Joao Almeida, Richard Carapaz and Simon Yates on the final climb to Picon Blanco on stage 3 (8.5kms at 8.9%) by wide margins and again he held on to it comfortably, even taking 3rd place on the final mountain stage (4.2kms at 11%) behind Sosa and Landa, with Almeida 27" back and Simon Yates over a minute back.
Then in Poland he waited until stage 4 before unleashing his power, soloing to an incredible victory by 1'48" - he was solo for over 50kms and no one could lay a glove on him! Looking at his results for 2018 when he was a junior is just amazing - he won almost every single race he entered, it's a stream of 1s. So 'overhyped' he certainly is not, he's an unbelievable talent, in the mould of Pogacar, Bernal and Pidock, winning big young.
In a recent interview he said "being my first race since August means we'll need to see how my body will react. We will need to take it day by day and see how things go." That injury though was really serious and the fact he hasn't raced in 9 months is testament to that - just how will his body react, especially in the second or third week of a tough Giro? He will be way ahead of all his GC rivals in the final TT, but will he even make it that far? And if he does, will his advantage be tempered by 3 hard weeks?
History is also against him in terms of turning up at your first ever GT and winning it - Bernal had ridden the '18 Tour before winning in '19, Pogacar had ridden the '19 Vuelta before winning the Tour last year. And if you look further back in history, only 8 riders since the war have won a Grand Tour on their debut, with Bernard Hinault in 1978 the last one to do so when he won the Vuelta.
Looking at the last 30 years, riders who went on to win a Grand Tour, only 17 of the 48 (35%) actually even finished their first GT. Only 4 finished in the top 10 (8.3%) of their debut GT and only 3 riders won a stage (6%). Damiano Cunego won the Giro when he was just 22, but again, he had ridden it the year before too.
Also there is the team dynamic - apparently Joao Almeida is the team leader, following his superb performance in 2020 when he led for such a long time. Almeida is only 1 year older than Evenepoel, but has that extra experience, and is good in the mountains and ok in TTs.
The rest of the team is apparently the 'best GC team in the team's franchise', but frankly that isn't saying much, they've never been a GC team. James Knox will be a big help in the mountains, he's turning in to a superb rider, and Fausto Masnada, Pieter Serry, Mikkel Honore and Iljo Keisse will also be there to help when needed on the flat and the earlier parts of climbs.
His results probably say yes, he can do this, history and his injuries and long lay-off say no.. and at 4/1, I'm not willing to invest to find out if he can do it, too much of a risk. But he will be fascinating to watch!
Alexander Vlasov – Astana (14/1 with various)
Vlasov abandoned last year's Giro on only the 2nd stage with stomach problems, there was footage of him throwing up beside the team car. He recovered to start the Vuelta 3 weeks later, but was never really able to fight for the win, finishing just outside the top 10 in 11th place. He lost 4'31" on the very first stage to Arrate and never really recovered from it, maybe he hadn't been able to train enough as he recovered from his illness in the Giro.
He had two good days on stages 11 and 12 though in the mountains, when he finished 5th and 2nd, the 2nd on stage 12 was impressive and noteworthy as it was to the finish on the Angliru, which isn't too dissimilar to the Zoncolan with gradients of 13-17%.
This year he has finished 10th in Provence, 2nd in Paris Nice and 3rd in the ToTA behind Yates and Pelle Bilbao, the three of them proving the strongest on stage 4 when Bilbao caught them on the descent and beat them in the sprint. In Paris Nice he climbed well but was no match for Roglic, and would have finished 3rd only for Roglic's ill-timed crash on the final stage.
His TT is really poor though, he lost 2'17 to Roglic in the Vuelta TT last year over 33kms, but even the likes of Dan Martin, Woet Poels and David De La Cruz went a minute faster than him. And in the 15km TT in the Giro he lost 1'20" to Ganna, but 31" to Yates and 58" to Almeida.
He has a decent team here with him though, stacked with experience and climbing ability, with LL Sanchez, Gorka Izagirre, Harold Tejada, Fabio Felline and Matteo Sobrero. Pronskiy and Battistella are just making up the numbers you feel though.
I think he is a solid top ten, possibly a top 6, but will struggle I think to break in to the top 3. He isn't good enough on the climbs and his TT'ing will cost him 30" to a minute on his rivals, possibly up to 90" to Evenepoel. And his descending isn't the greatest, Bilbao easily caught him and Yates and shot past him on the descent to the finish in the ToTA, and as there are a few stages with downhill runs to the line, he might find himself losing valuable seconds to better descenders.
Hugh Carthy - EF Edu Nippo – (16/1 with various)
The lanky Lancastrian has now ridden 7 Grand Tours in total, with his 3rd in the 2020 Vuelta his best result to date. He's also ridden the Giro three times, in '17, '18 and '19, as well as the 2020 TDF and the 2016 Vuelta.
The TDF didn't go to plan for him last year, he lost almost 4 minutes on the 2nd stage, another 1'21" on stage 7 when the race split on the run in to Lavaur and nearly 9 minutes on stage 8, and his race was all over.
He DNF'ed at the Worlds, but went to the Vuelta a few weeks later and started well this time, 7th on the first stage, moving up to 2nd overall by stage 6. He was remarkably consistent after that, never falling below 4th place, and eventually taking 3rd spot on the podium, just 1'15" behind Roglic, taking a famous win on the Angliru in the process as well as 7 other top ten finishes.
He even pulled off a superb TT on stage 13, the 33.7km test that finished in the 1.8km climb at 14%, taking 4th place, ahead of Remi Cavagna and Mattia Cattaneo. He's not normally renowned for his TT abilities, but he has pulled off some decent rides in the past, including 8th place in the 35km TT in the Giro in 2019 won by Roglic.
This year he has finished 8th in Catalunya, 12th in Itzulia and 5th in the ToTA, again, consistency being the key. He should go well in this Giro too I think - maybe not good enough to win it, but he will be close to challenging for a podium spot. His team will be a weak point though, he doesn't have a great team here with him, but in Ruben Guerreiro, Jonathan Caicedo and Simon Carr he has some strong legs for the mountains, plus the experienced heads of Tejay Van Garderen, Alberto Bettiol and Jens Keukeleire.
Mikel Landa – Bahrain Victorious) (16/1 with various)
Almost the forgotten man yet again, I seem to write this about him quite a lot.. He has been in good form this season so far, taking 3rd in that hard Tirreno Adriatico, despite losing over a minute in the final TT. The damage was done on that brutal stage to Castelfidardo when WVA went off solo and Pogacar chased after him, he couldn't go with them and lost over 2 minutes.
In Itzulia he finished 8th, again losing time in the opening TT, he was 49" behind Roglic and 21" behind Yates after the 14km test. But he rode well for the rest of the race, taking an 8th place, 5th and 9th to finish 8th overall at the end.
14 Grand Tours to his name, he has more experience than the top three guys in the betting put together, but to date, 3rd in the 2015 Giro is the highest he's finished, but he's also finished 4th in the 2019 Giro and 4th twice in the TDF (2020 and 2017).
Knowing that he will lose probably a minute or more in the final TT, Landa will have to go on the offensive and try to gain a decent buffer, which should make things interesting. The problem is that his attacking prowess has waned in recent years, so his explosive attacks are more like token efforts that peter out very quickly, sometimes resulting in him going out the back door..
Damiano Caruso and Pelle Bilbao are two super-domestiques capable of a top ten showing themselves, and they'll be there to help him in the mountains, unless the tables have turned and they are de facto team leader based on their GC positions. They also have strong men in Tratnik, Mohoric, Valls and Mader but they won't be great help in the high mountains, it will be up to him to do the talking.
I think he will be there or thereabout though - he looks to be in good form and Caruso and Bilbao will be valuable assets. He will lose loads of time in the TTs though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him finish in 4th place again.
Emanuel Buchmann - Bora (14/1 with various)
Emanuel Buchmann wouldn't appear on many people's shortlists for this Giro, he's not one of the special new generation or a consistent performer in big races.. But it's hard to ignore the 4th place finish in the 2019 TDF, when he finished just 25" behind Kruijswijk's podium spot and 45" behind Thomas in 2nd place.
2019 was an exceptional year for the German, with 4th in UAE, 3rd in Itzulia, 7th in Romandie, 3rd in the Dauphiné and his 4th in the Tour. He was ahead of Adam Yates, Pogacar, Landa and Dan Martin when he won superbly on stage 5 of Itzulia up the climb to Arrate, taking the lead in the process, only to lose it the next day when Adam Yates, Dan Martin and Ion Izagirre got away on the Cat 2 climb 15kms from the finish and Izagirre took the overall in the end.
2020 was a major disappointment compared to 2019, and this year has been steady if unspectacular, but he's not raced a lot. Just 14 days and 2023kms of racing, he finished 12th in UAE and 13th in Itzulia, but was 10 mins and 5 mins down respectively. The team will be focused on Sagan and his bid for stage wins and the points competition, which means that Buchmann will just have Fabbro, a young, inexperienced guy and Felix Grosschartner in the mountains with him, with Daniel Oss and Cesare Benadetti to add experience and look after him on the flatter roads.
I think we will see another steady but unspectacular performance from him, 10th to 20th for me.
Pavel Sivakov - Ineos (18/1 with various)
Now this guy interests me a little if we're thinking that Bernal is not 100% and could drop away or even abandon the race. Sivakov oozes class on a bike and is a real quality alternative should Bernal falter.
He DNF'ed his first Grand Tour at the Vuelta in 2018, losing 10 mins on the first stage and it never got any better for him.
Then he had that disastrous opening to the TDF 2020, when he crashed twice in the very first stage and had to ride wrapped up like an egyptian mummy for over a week.. He recovered slowly and took a fine 4th place on stage 16 to Villard de Lans, but that was all the consolation he got. He did finish it though which shows how tough he is.
But in between he showed what he is capable of with a fine 9th place in the 2019 Giro. He moved up to 9th after a fine ride up to Lago Serru on stage 13 and held 9th all the way to the finish, taking 2nd in the young riders behind Lopez too. He's been steady, if unspectacular too so far this year, but stepped it up a gear at the ToTA when he took 2nd on the big stage 2 finish won by Simon Yates, but slipped down to 5th when he lost time on the stage 4 won by Bilbao after crashing on the descent too. I've been told though that the crash wasn't bad and that he's fully recovered from it.
He does seem hit and miss though, rather than someone with that relentless consistency like Pogacar, so it's hard to trust him fully - but if anything should happen to Bernal, then the 28/1 you can get on Betfair might be a good trading bet for later in the race.
Joao Almeida - Deceuninck (20/1 with various)
The guy who led the Giro in great style on his GT debut for 15 stages and finished 4th overall is available at 20/1? Well that's the Evenepoel factor - like Bernal and Sivakov, he's that price because of this fancied team-mate.
But Almeida makes a lot more sense in terms of value, he has the experience of leading the Giro for so long, he can TT (finished 2nd, 6th and 4th in the three TTs last year) and isn't bad on the climbs either, hanging in there on some of the toughest stages last year to defend his jersey (4th on Piancavallo being a prime example) and he has a knack of picking up bonus seconds.
He also has a strong team to support him on the flats, and should Evenepoel have a bad few days and fall out of contention, he also could then have a super-domestique ready to work for him.
His other results in 2020 were excellent too, 3rd in Burgos, 7th in Tour de l'Ain, 3rd in Coppi e Bartali and 9th in the Algarve, he continued in to 2021 in that strong vein of form, taking 3rd in the UAE Tour, 6th in Tirreno and 7th in Catalunya with a number of strong showings in TTs.
He is a really interesting runner for me and I fancy his chances to go very well - as long as he isn't called upon to work for Evenepoel and loses lots of time after working hard for him. If you're willing to take a punt that Evenepoel doesn't last the course, then he could be a great bet - he'll take a minute or more off some of his big rivals in the TT and with no Pogacar or Roglic and maybe a sub-par Bernal, the climbing opposition is around his level too, or not far above him.
Jai Hindley and Romain Bardet - DSM (25/1 and 50/1 with various)
Bundled the two DSM guys together, one of whom is twice the price of the other. Hindley was brilliant last year and took advantage of the chaos and dropouts to almost win the Giro at an astonishing 500/1. Hindley had a steady intro to his season with 18th place in Paris Nice, but had to abandon Catalunya after 3 stages because of illness and then crashed out of the ToTA when sitting in 11th place, crashing on the same descent as Dan Martin as they charged after Yates, Vlasov and Bilbao.
He had to get stitches in a knee injury, but he says that he's 'all good' and he's not stressed about losing out on the chances in Catalunya and ToTA to fight it out to the end. They were initially not down to ride the ToTA but the Italian national team withdrew and DSM were allowed step in and bring the bones of their Giro squad who had just come back from altitude training. He went to the ToTA still in need of race fitness after the altitude camp and was feeling like he was getting better and better each day, so he thinks that he's on track to start to peak in week two and three of this Giro.
DSM are saying there is no 'pre-ordained heirarchy' before the race, and like with Kelderman on the Stelvio and Sestriere last year, it will be the road that decides who team leader is. There are also rumours flying about that Hindley is on his way out of DSM, with Trek-Segafredo supposedly his next port of call once his contract is up at the end of the season - a good showing in the Giro could well add some weight to any conract negotiations.
Bardet has never ridden a Giro, which is pretty surprising, given he is 30 years old, but he has ridden 8 TDFs and a Vuelta. He has a super record of high GC results at the TDF though, with a 2nd, 3rd, two 6ths, a 9th and two 15th places to his name over the years. He's been going well this year too with 9th at the ToTA and 8th at Tirreno, he's been up there and consistent.
He has been one of my favourites for years, especially since he took the KOM jersey for us in the 2019 TDF at 66/1.. Could he do the same here? It's possible, but also he's very capable of a top ten. It's been a long time since he last won a stage of a GT, four years in fact with his win on stage 12 of the TDF up the Peyragudes.
Others
I'm only putting Pelle Bilbao down here because he's as big as 50/1 to win this. I backed him two years ago at 300/1 and he hovered around 10th place for quite a few stages but had a bad day on stage 12 to Pinerolo, losing 18 mins and fell out of contention. He had a really good 2020 with a fine 16th place in the TDF and an excellent 5th place in the Giro, taking a number of top 10s along the way.
He has been in excellent form so far this year, with 6th in Itzulia and 2nd in the ToTA taking a stage win too with his heroic descent and sprint win versus Vlasov and Yates. Yes, he will be asked to look after Landa, but I think he will be left ride his own race too and could well catch a few by surprise with his late attacks. There are a few stages with downhill finishes and we could see him fly again. At 50/1 I'm going to have a nibble and a little on him to finish in the top 10 also at 5/6.
Daniel Martinez is 33/1, but with Bernal and Sivakov ahead of him in the pecking order at Ineos, it will take extraordinary bad luck or good form on him part for him to feature.
Dan Martin feels out of place way down here in the 'Others' section, but he is 80/1. He was well in contention in the ToTA, sitting in 4th place, but couldn't go with Yates and Vlasov when they accelerated away towards the top of the final climb on stage 4.. as he chased hard trying to catch them on the descent, he had a weird, slow-motion crash that finished his chances.
A veteran of 16 GTs, he's done the Giro only once before in 2010, but he has finished 4th in the 2020 Vuelta and 7th in 2014, and 6th, 8th and 9th in the TDF. I think he will be stage hunting and I think top 10 at best for him.
George Bennett (50/1) gets a rare opportunity to lead Jumbo Visma with no Roglic, Van Aert, Kruijswik or Vengegaard here, and he's off the radar completely when it comes to fancied picks for this race. He can't be discounted too lightly though, he might only have an 8th place in the 2018 Giro and 10th in the 2016 Vuelta as his only top 10s in 13 Grand Tours, but he's always been working in the services of others, sacrificing his chances and GC ambitions in the process.
He had to abandon Catalunya due to illness after 3 stages and had a pretty average Paris Nice after returning from Australia, but I think he has the quality to possibly mix it for a top ten place, and if not, we could see him lose time and go stage hunting. The time trials will hurt his chances though, so he'll have to be offensive, and with a team built to half support Dylan Groenewegen it's looking a little weak in terms of support in the mountains, with only Bouwman likely to be near him at the end of stages.
Marc Soler (40/1) gets a chance too to finally lead Movistar in a Grand Tour, with no Valverde or Enric Mas, and with Landa, Quintana and Carapaz having moved on to pastures new. He didn't start this season in great form, but sparked in to life with a brilliant solo victory from a late attack on stage 3 of Romandie, securing him 4th spot overall. He did lose 53" to Woods on the steep climb to Thyon 2000 the next day though, so he'll have to avoid that inconsistency which seems to be a feature of his career if he's to feature in the top 10 here.
And finally, the Shark of Messina himself, Vincenzo Nibali (50/1). Nibali crashed in training a few weeks back, putting his participation in the Giro in doubt, but he's been wearing some new fancy carbon-fibre wrist brace thing which seems to have performed miracles and he's down to start the race Saturday after all.
A veteran of 23 GTs, no other rider in the race has done so many, he has of course won four of them, including the Giro in 2013 and 2016. He also finished 7th here last year, 2nd in 2019, 3rd in 2019, 2nd in 2011 and 3rd in 2010 - an astonishing record of results in the Giro. Another who has been going steady this year too, 9th in Tirreno, 17th in UAE, he hasn't raced much this year (22 days) or last year (just 53 days), compared to 76 days in 2019 and 2018 and 81 in 2017.. It might be just what the 36 year old needed, an easy year to recharge the batteries a little and prolong his career.
He's got a decent Trek team here with him, with Ciccone, Brambilla, Mollema, Mosca and Ghebreigzabhier here to support him in the mountains, and if things come off the rails we could see Trek going stage hunting on multiple fronts. I would love to see Nibali challenging the young guns here and pushing for a podium spot, but I think he might have to settle for 4th to 10th.
Fausto Masnada will be an interesting one - he's 100/1 in the betting, but that's down to the quality of the two guys above him in the pecking order in the team, Remco and Joao. He finished 9th last year as a result of his consistency - he didn't finish lower than 39th in any road stage. He lost time to his rivals in all three time trials though, and struggled a little on the really tough mountain stages, so it will be difficult for him I think to mount a serious challenge, especially if his two team-mates are going well.
He is in great form though, finished Romandie in 3rd place after a fine 5th place up to Thyon 2000, just 37" behind Woods and ahead of the likes of Porte, Soler and Kelderman. He also must have been TT training with Cavagna since last year as he rode a brilliant TT on the final stage, finishing 6th, just 21" behind his team-mate and ahead of Dennis and Ganna!
He'd be tempting for a top 10, maybe even a top 6 if it wasn't for the fact that he will be riding support more than likely for Remco and Joao, but also I think he will be a key part in their push for the Team competition, his consistency will be key to getting a third rider home every day in a good placing. Maybe later in the race, if he's lost time, he could be one to watch for a break, but I'm struggling to find an angle to bet on him at the moment.
And that's about it, there are other guys like Ciccone, Formolo, Pozzovivo who could go well, but I can't see them challenging for the top 10, let alone a podium spot.
The first TT will give us a glimpse of who's hot and not, stages 4 and 6 will give us a clearer picture and there should be no doubts about where we stand come stages 9 and 11. I'm willing to take on Bernal and Evenepoel at those prices, and I'm even tempted to lay both of them - I'm not sure they will even both finish. Taking them away makes Yates a no brainer, he's got the ability, the experience and the form, with a very smart, wiley Australian DS in the car that will call the right shots at the right time for him.
Pavel Sivakov can be a trading bet and at a bigger price of 20/1, Joao Almeida can mount a big challenge this year too I think, if he's close going in to the final TT he could land a podium spot at worst given how much better he is than all his rivals on a TT bike. Pelle Bilbao could also go really well in this Giro, he's got the form and I think the course suits him really well.
Recommendation:
3pts win on Simon Yates at 7/2 with various
1pt each-way on Joao Almeida at 20/1 with Skybet
1pt on Pavel Sivakov at 29 on Betfair as a trading bet in case Bernal falls away, will update as race goes on.
0.5pt e/w on Pelle Bilbao at 50/1 with Paddy Power
Matchbets
To come