Details

Published on Thursday, 06 May 2021 11:00

Giro - Other Markets

A selection of other bets 

I love the Grand Tours for a lot of reasons, one of which is we finally get a wide selection of 'other markets' to bet on, where I try to find some value bets for you!

There's a lot of different bets available for the Giro and I've taken a look at the ones I'm interested in. I'm not saying by any means back them all, but have a look through, see which ones you agree with and stake accordingly! I may add some more bets here as the race goes on and we start to get a picture of who's going well and who's not. 

Top 10 Finish

The interesting thing about this market is that Mikel Landa is the shortest price favourite at just 1/5, he's the most certain according to the bookies to finish in the top 10! In contrast, Remco is 4/6 to finish in the top 10, even though he's 4/1 to win and Landa is 16/1! That's the bookies basically agreeing with my thoughts on both that Remco will either win, or will not finish. Hence the short win odds and long top 10 odds for Remco, and long win odds on Landa and short top 10 odds. 

As you'd expect, most of the favourites are otherwise really short for a top 10 bet, so there's not a lot of value. Pelle Bilbao interests me though, I've laid out my thoughts on him in my main GC preview, I think he will have a great Giro. He is in form, he will do well in the mountains, will TT well and could take time from rivals with a daring descent on one of the stages with a downhill finish. At 5/6 he's worth a shot I think. 

The other one at the moment I like is Pavel Sivakov for the same reasons I gave in my overall preview, I think he will have a good Giro and will be riding alongside, rather than working for Bernal, so should consistently finish highly. I've been told by a pro I speak to that Sivakov has told him he's fine after his crash in the ToTA, so nothing to worry about there. He's also close to even money at 4/5 and I think he has a good chance of a top 10, possibly even a top 6. 

Overall Head to Heads

None of the head to heads really appeal to me on their own as they are either too tight to call or I agree with how they are priced and offer very little value on their own. So I'm going to put some in some doubles and trebles to try to create more attractive bets. (that is when Bet365 start allowing multiples...)

Hugh Carthy to beat Dan Martin (4/11) and Yates to beat Evenepoel (4/11) 3pts on the double at 1.86

Add Hindley to beat Nibali (1/4) to make it a treble at 2.32

Almeida to beat Bilbao (8/13) and Masanada to beat Caruso - 2pts at 2.33

King of the Mountains Head-to-Head 

Hugh Carthy to beat Landa - 2pts at 11/10. I think Landa will have a good Giro, but I also think Hugh will go well. I also think that there is more chance of Hugh having a big day one day where he scores highly on a summit finish, maybe even winning a stage, and he should go well on the Monte Zoncolan, better than Landa I think, so he might just outscore him on the whole. 

Points Competition Head-to-Head 

Sagan to beat Gaviria (2/9), Nizzolo to beat Viviani (1/2) and Vendrame to beat Battaglin (2/7) - 3pts on the treble at 2.35 (BASED ON THE NEW INFO I REVEALED IN THE POINTS COMPETITION, REVERSE THE NIZZOLO AND VIVIANI BET IN THE TREBLE INSTEAD)

I've thought a lot too about this one, probably more than I should have, but Cimolai Vs Kanter was a weird matchup to put up and it got me pondering it. Cimolai is a veteran of 8 Grand Tours and has finished every one of them. Max Kanter is only riding his second Grand Tour after finishing the Vuelta last year. Kanter is a better sprinter than Cimolai these days (their head to head stats in the same race is 2/1 in Kanter's favour) and very often Cimolai works for others.

Based on form, Bevin will probably sprint for Israel, but Cimolai will probably be his last man. But Bevin has started 5 GTs and only finished 1, so he might not last past the first rest day. Then Cimolai will get an opportunity to sprint in the two remaining sprint stages. My gut feeling is that Cimolai will actually be allowed sprint some days, he's the Italian on home soil after all. And in the hustle and bustle of a Giro sprint stage, I'd fancy him to finish in the top 15 a few times, Kanter might well get lost as he doesn't have a great leadout at all, maybe just Nick Arndt, he'll miss Jasha Sutterlin here.

And if you are betting on the likelihood of both finishing the Giro, my money would most definitely be on Cimolai over Kanter. There's a small edge then I think on Cimolai, who is the 19/20 outsider (3/4 for Kanter) so I'm having a go on that. And also based on my train of thought re. Bevin not finishing 80% of the Grand Tours he's started, I'm backing Vendrame to beat him in their points matchbet, he's 21/20. Vendrame has started three TDFs and finished all three. And a double on them while I'm at it. 

2pts on Cimolai to beat Kanter at 19/20 ( with Unibet

2pts on Vendrame to beat Bevin at 11/10 (boosted) with Unibet

2pts on the double at 3.1/1 (boosted)

Team Finishing Position

DQS - Joao Almeida is 5/4, Remco is 9/10.. Joao is the bet if we don't think Remco will stay the course. 2pts at 5/4

Movistar - Marc Soler (1/2) and Bahrain - Mikel Landa (4/9)  - 2pts on the double at 23/20

To win/not win a Stage 

Patrick Bevin to NOT win a stage - short I know, but this looks free money - 5pts at 33/100 with Unibet

David Dekker to NOT win a stage - free money again, I've been told he's doing 10 stages only and will be riding for Dylan. Even if he does get a shot at sprinting he won't beat Merlier or Ewan. 8pts at 1/8 with 365 (he's 1/18 with Unibet and that's what he should be). I know it's not for everyone backing at that price, but it's an open goal. 

Elia Viviani to NOT win a stage - no chance, not with Ewan and Groenewegen here. 7pts at 2/7

Marc Soler to win a stage - 6/4 - he looks to be coming in to good form and might be let get a gap like he did in Romandie while other GC men look at each other, especially if he's lost a bit of time. If he's lost a lot of time I can see him going in breaks and he's capable of outlasting the others to take a stage win. 2pts at 6/4

Mikel Landa to NOT win a stage - he will be up there every big stage, but I can't see him winning one. If he comes to the line with ANYONE they will beat him in a sprint. And I can't see him riding away from Yates, Bernal, Almeida, Evenepoel, Sivakov etc to solo to a win, he hasn't won a race since March 2019. He has only 15 wins in total to his name in 11 years as a pro, that's just over one a year and they are getting scarcer.. 4.5pts at 4/9

I was tempted by the 4/1 on Quentin Hermans to win a stage as he's been riding well this year and Wanty are sure to be on the attack a lot, but I think I'll just wait and back him on certain stages at odds of over 50/1 probably.