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Published on Thursday, 06 May 2021 11:00

Giro - Young Riders

Who will be king of the kids?

The first two in this competition last year finished 1-2 in the GC, with only 39" separating them, with Joao Almeida just over 2 minutes further back in 3rd. A pretty amazing stat that 3 of the first 4 home were under 25 years of age. 

And it's not much different this year, with three of the top four GC favourites also at the top of the betting for the young riders', with only Yates being over 25 years. 

Egan Bernal is 3/1 to win overall, but 2/1 to win the young riders classification, he's seen as the next best to Yates obviously and thus should be first under 25 home if he finishes 2nd to Yates. I've written all about Bernal in my GC preview, he could be brilliant, he could fade out of contention and may not even finish, who knows. He says he's feeling confident, but also that his back pain has eased because of his lighter load recently. But how will that hold up on the tough second and third week? 

Similarly Remco Evenepoel is 3/1 and he could be unstoppable or stops completely, we won't know until maybe 4 or 6 stages in. He might start very well, he could even win the opening TT, possibly by 30" or more to some of his rivals for this, and his price may shorten. If he goes well in the first week his price could shorten further, so he could be a good back-to-lay bet on Betfair, but there currently is no liquidity at all, it might pick up Friday and Saturday though. 

Alexander Vlasov is 4/1 and again, is that a price worth taking not knowing how the top two above will go? If either, or both go well, then Vlasov will not win, he won't be good enough on the climbs to beat Bernal and not good enough overall to beat a fully fit Remco. 

Pavel Sivakov is 5/1 and his chances revolve around Bernal really. If Bernal is going well, then Sivakov will be working for him, but is also capable of a high finish on most of the big mountain stages. If Bernal is not going well, then Sivakov could well be riding for Ineos's GC chances and so will be their man for GC and thus this competition. One for an e/w bet I think if a bookie opens up an e/w market, 365 are win only at the moment. 

Joao Almeida is the second best GC rider as per the ProCyclingStats rankings behind Simon Yates, yet he's only 6th favourite to win this at 9/1. I fancy him to go really well this race, so it would make sense to back him here too no at that price? Well, again, I will if e/w betting comes out, I think he could be one of the top 3 U25 riders. 

Jai Hindley is the same price, and to be honest I see that as a no-contest in terms of a matchbet, but 365 have decided that isn't a good h2h to put up, even though they're the same price, instead they have Hindley Vs Vlasov and Almeida Vs Sivakov. Maybe someone will put up Hindley Vs Almeida and I'll be backing Almeida. Hindley will go well for sure, but I can't see him in the first 5 and that will not win him the Young Riders. 

Of the rest, Jefferson Cepeda might go well, the young Colombian was really strong in the ToTA, finishing 4th overall and won the young riders, although they must have a lower threshold than the Giro as Vlasov finished ahead of him on the GC by a minute. But this is only his second GT, his first was last year's Giro and he finished 78th overall and 26th in the young riders, so I wouldn't be holding too much hope on him challenging the top guys for this. 

So this is another conundrum, simpy because of the doubts around the key protagonists as to whether they are fully fit or not. IF they are, Bernal probably wins it for me, his experience should edge it for him over Evenepoel. I'm not sure Evenepoel will sustain a challenge for the whole of the three weeks though, so Bernal is definitely the better option of the two if they both start well. Vlasov and Sivakov won't be far off either, nor will Almeida, and out of the lot of them, Almeida probably offers the best odds, so I'm going to have a small bet on that and if we get e/w betting I'll add an e/w bet and an e/w on Sivakov. 

Recommendation:

1pt win on Joao Almeida at 9/1 with various

1pt e/w on Joao Almeida and 1pt e/w on Pavel Sivakov at 5/1 if e/w betting is allowed.