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Published on Thursday, 25 March 2021 21:25

E3 Saxo Bank Classic

Friday 26th March, 204kms

The E3 Saxobank Classic, or the E3 Harelbeke to most of us, kicks off the 'Flanders Week' with Gent Wevelgem coming two days later on Sunday and the king of the Belgian Classics, the Ronde Van Vlaanderen on April 4th.  

The E3 Harelbeke was one of the victims of the lockdowns last year, it's hard to believe we are now a year on from this all starting, but it's also hard to believe how much cycling has actually been allowed to continue, considering how much of the rest of life and sport has been put on hold. There were worrying signs for Paris Roubaix this week though when the prefect for the Nord and Haute de France basically hinted that the race was in jeopardy as a result of soaring infections in the area. It's looking unlikely, which will be a major disappointment, but what can you do.. 

The E3 has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, now known as the A14. The race has more or less kept the name, but now adds the name of the sponsor, Saxo Bank, who are making a return to cycling in a big way after a bit of a hiatus for a few years. They take over from Binck Bank who sponsored it last year. 

It is sometimes referred to as the 'baby Flanders' and is a fantastic preparation for the Ronde as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs, including the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont, althought they do them in reverse order in the E3.

We had another brilliant race in 2019, thanks to the power and tactics of DQS, who mastered the race from a long way out. Bob Jungels, fresh from his heroics in KBK attacked again, with 55kms out in fact, bridging to what was left of the break of the day. Greg Van Avermaet, Stybar, Sagan, Van Aert, Bettiol gave chase, making their move on the Paterberg with 42kms to go and started to close down Jungels.

Van Avermaet was super strong all day and attacked again and again, eventually causing even Peter Sagan to blow his lights and go out the back door on the Tiegemberg with 20kms to go. So a select group of Bettiol, GVA, Van Aert and Stybar caught Jungels and a tense game of cat and mouse ensued for the last 5kms. Jungels attacked and chased and attacked and chased, giving Stybar as easy a ride as possible, but it came down to a four-man sprint in the end and Stybar proved the strongest, ahead of WVA and GVA. 

QuickStep also won the race in 2018, when Nikki Terpstra took a superb solo win, riding away from his team-mate Yves Lampaert with 24kms to go. The race had been very dramatic, with a crash that involed Demare, Vanmarcke and Naesen causing a split that QSF were keen to take advantage of, and that helped queue up the eventual break that went on to take the win.

Greg Van Avermaet took a fantastic win in an action-packed race in 2017, outsprinting Philippe Gilbert and Oliver Naesen, the three having made a break for it a long way from home and reducing it to a final selection of three the final time up the Kwaremont.

The Route

Pretty much the same course as previous years - an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 110kms. It's usually the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to be blown to pieces all over the countryside over the last 100kms. 

The  Katteberg, which was replaced with the Wolvenberg as the first obstacle of the day in 2019 stays. they meet it after just 29kms (750m at 6%). The next obstacle comes after 88kms, with the climb of La Houppe.

There are then thirteen more Hellingen to get over in the 96kms between La Houpe after 88kms and the Tiegemberg which comes with just 19.5kms to go. It's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 124km gone that things really start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m usually causes the first real significant splits in any race that goes over it. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 2.8kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made, a reverse order to what they do in the Ronde, when the Kwaremont comes first.

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% and is particularly steep and rough near the top, while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. You reach the top of the Kwaremont near the cafe and could be forgiven for thinking that might be it, but the hill keeps going for more than a kilometre after that and the cobbles are particularly rough in the last 500m. It's sometimes the case that the real gaps are made in this section as some riders are on the limit after the pitch up to the cafe and the stronger men press on over the rough last 500m. 

The 26kms between the Kapelberg and the Tiegemberg will be crucial though, as it takes them over the Paterberg and Kwaremont.  From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke with the finish outside the E3 stadium.

Weather

It's going to be nice and windy, as one rider put it to me today "It's gonna be a battlefield!" There will be a SSW wind of 22/23kmph for most of the day, with gusts of up to 35kmph. This means a tail wind for most of the early part of the race, which should help the break to build up a big lead. There will be a tailwind leading in to the Taaienberg which will make the pace in the run in to it even higher, but for the most part, as they head towards the final 50kms it will be either a cross-wind from the their left or a headwind. It will be a cross-tailwind for the final sprint.  

Contenders and Favourites

2019 saw a young Wout Van Aert outsprinted by Zdenek Stybar, after sterling work by Stybar's DQS teammate at the time, Bob Jungels, with Greg Van Avermaet in 3rd and Alberto Bettiol in 4th. You'd have to think if the same group came to the finish again tomorrow, there is only going to be one winner, such is the improvement we have seen in WVA since then. He is simply an incredible athlete that can do it all. Winning from sprints, winning TTs, climbing with the best in the world, and a monster on the cobbles too. 

Jumbo are not planning on chasing the break, which means they will have lots of guys around Wout when it comes to the crucial last 70kms or so. Maarten Wynants and Timo Roosen bring old head road captain experience, Pascal Eenkhoon, David Dekker, Nathan Van Hooydonck and Edoardo Affini bring power and youthful exhuberence, coupled with lots of cobbles experience also. I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 4 of them still with Wout when they head towards the Paterberg, that is, unless Wout has already blown it up on the Taaienberg or the Eikenberg. 

We should see a first softening up on the Paterberg, where the field will be strung out and whittled down, this is where GVA exploded the race in 2019, taking only a very select group with him, including Sagan and Trentin at the time. It's quickly followed by another on the Kwaremont, where those who were struggling at the back get cut off completely. I expect Jumbo to push hard on the run in to the Paterberg, get Wout near the front and let him start to break the race apart. If some of them can hang on and rejoin ahead of the Kwaremont, great, but Wout is very capable of just taking the race on from there by himself. 

The Karemelbeekstraat is tough at 1km at 7.1%, and I see some are saying with the tailwind we might see a big attack going here.. But the hardest part of the climb, near the top is very covered with trees and ditches, so the wind shouldn't play too big a part.. Having said that, this climb is where decisive moves come anyway, simply down to its position in the race, and how steep it gets at the top. It's where Bob Jungels rode away from his break companions, including one Marc Hirschi, in 2019. 

Where the race blew up again though in 2019 was the lesser regarded climb of the Tiegemberg, when the chasing group, including Gilbert, Lampaert, Benoot and Terpstra were about to join the leaders, but GVA stepped on the pedals again and shot Peter Sagan and Keukeleire out the back door first, and as they accelerated away only Wout, Stybar and Bettiol could stay with him. I expect something similar from Wout this year, and he will probably take a small group to the finish with him. And he would win that sprint you'd think. 

Of course, barring some sort of mechanical, you'd expect Mathieu Van Der Poel to be right there in the thick of the action too. I wouldn't be surprised to see him kick things off early, maybe even as early as the Taaienberg, a la Boonen, with some 80kms to go. I think he'll sit in on the Paterberg a little and save his push for the Kwaremont, where his power over a longer and less-steep climb could see him take only a handful of riders with him. 

He looked like he was suffering the effects of a hard Tirreno last weekend in Sanremo, but he's had another week to recover from that and we are sure to see him giving it his all again. Poor team with him of course, as we all know, but he can handle himself in most situations. What he can't handle though is multiple attacks on him in the last 20kms, especially if the likes of DQS have 2 or 3 riders still in the mix.. he can't chase them all. It might be that the one time he says "I'm not chasing them this time" will be the time when someone manages to sneak away and stay away. We've seen him lose Gent Wevelgem in this way. 

Trek have two superb chances too, with Mads Pedersen and Jasper Stuyven in great form. Mads has KBK to his name already this season and four more podiums, including a close 2nd in the Koksijde Classic last week behind speedster Tim Merlier. His win in KBK was pure power at the end of a tough day, sprinting from a long way out, as is his style. It made up for a disastrous day the previous day for Trek when as he admitted himseld "We fucked up" in OHN. 

Jasper Stuyven was poacher supreme last Saturday in MSR, a perfectly timed attack at the bottom of the Poggio, followed by a great bit of playing with SKA to make him work hard in the last kilometre to get a short rest before attacking away again and just hanging on. Both of them are going to find this a lot harder though to win, Pedersen will struggle I think to go with the big attacks on the hills, Stuyven would be outsprinted by the likes of Wout, should be make the final selection. 

DQS are of course packed with power and potential winners, with previous winner Zdenek Stybar leading the team, joined by Yves Lampaert, Davide Ballerini, Florian Senechal, Kasper Asgreen and Bert Van Lerberghe. Personally, I don't see Stybar repeating his heroics of a year ago, that seemed to be a bit of a purple patch he went through in March of 2019 and he hasn't really reproduced the sort of performances that saw him take this race and OHN back in 2019. He's 35 now and I think he'll be working for teammates here. 

Yves Lampaert is a diligent and loyal teammate who works his socks off for the likes of Bennett and Alaphilippe week in, week out, will he be given an opportunity to go for it here? I would think so, he seemed to be building a bit of form in Paris-Nice and will be tuned up nicely for the weeks ahead.. But he will have to attack and win solo, which will be hard, but if they have Asgreen, Stybar and Senechal still in contention in the last 10kms, Lampaert is the kind of guy who can pull off a late solo attack. 

Davide Ballerini has been in super form, but like Bennett, he couldn't get over the Poggio with the leaders and finished with Bennett, 29" down.Comfortable winner of OHN, he handled the bergs and cobbles well that day, but this is a different sort of challenge and he has too many DNFs to his name in recent seasons in races like this to have too much confidence in him at just 18/1. 

And Florian Senechal - he has said that this is one of his 'key objectives' for the season, he's out of contract at the end of the season and is not in the starting line up for Gent Wevelgem on Sunday. With Paris-Roubaix looking extremely doubtful now, Senechal will be looking to impress and this should be a big chance for him. He is one of the better sprinters of the likely group that will come to the finish, and if he's on a really good day, and if Wout has done a little too much earlier in the race, he might just have the sprint to beat him. I think a top 3 is a good chance though for him. 

Lotto Soudal have Philippe Gilbert, and after all the hype about him trying to win his 5th monument in MSR last week, he never got in a blow really. They probably have a better chance with John Degenkolb, but he's very hit and miss these days and he's more suited to a flatter race like Gent Wevelgem or Roubaix. 

AG2R have their two-prong attack in GVA and Oliver Naesen, and GVA really loves this race.. his palmares shows three 3rds, and a 1st in the race, his win coming in 2017 when he outsprinted Gilbert and Naesen. And in 2018 he was outsprinted by Gilbert for 2nd behind solo winner Terpstra. He had been disappointing to me so far this season but looked much better in MSR and you would assume he has been timing his peak to come in the next 3-4 weeks.

He will find it very hard to beat Wout and MVDP, but he won't be far off, I would think he will top 10, so might be one to watch for the Bet365 'finishing positions' markets in play, for 4th to 9th, athough I'd expect him to be around 1/2. 5/6 to beat Pidcock appeals more though. 

Oliver Naesen has done this race three times before the cancellation in 2020, and in those three races he finished 3rd, 4th and 8th. From Oostende, just 60kms from Harelbeke, he knows these roads like the back of his hand and is sure to be in the mix too. He hasn't been in great form recently though and has only 4 wins in the last 4 years to his name, and I can't see how he can win this unless something bizarre happens. 

Ineos have young Tom Pidcock as their main hope, and he has been riding great this year with a 3rd in KBK and a 5th in Strade, but in his young career to date he won't have faced a race like this. As much as I hope to see him do well and continue his upward trajectory, I can't see how he can win either, but if you're a big fan I can't put you off backing him each-way, although there isn't much fat in that at just 14/1. Way too short for me. 

DSM have Tiesj Benoot as number 1 dossier, but I'd give Soren Kragh a better chance than Tiesj who doesn't seem to be in great shape lately. SKA was unlucky for us last Saturday, he made the late attack I was hoping he would, but just didn't have the legs. I was disappointed in him to be honest, I though he would catch Stuyven and just attack straight past him to try to solo to the finish. At one point I was thinking 'at least we have the place up here' but he was weak and a bit naieve to let Stuyven bully him in to doing the pulling, and he faded instead of going with Stuyven to fight out the win. 

This could be his chance to attone for it. He won't be watched as closely as the main favourites and could attack away late in the race to take the win. But... he has way too many DNFs and bad results in these sorts of races in the last two years to have much confidence in him, so I'm going to leave him for another time.  

Israel Start up's best chance is Sep Vanmarcke, but he's going to struggle to beat the top two, but should be top 10, he has 6 top 10s to his name in 9 attempts. UAE Emirates have three possibles in Alexander Kristoff, Matteo Trentin and Fernando Gaviria. Well, we can rule out Gaviria, he won't be involved, Alexander Kristoff will struggle I think to stay with the accelerations over the Paterberg and Kwaremont, but Matteo Trentin won't be far off and could well come back to the front group. 8th in OHN, 4th in KBK and 12th in MSR, he's in great shape and has finished 3rd, 7th, 11th and 12th here in the past. 28/1 is a bit tight though, you'd be hoping that one of MVDP or WVA didn't make the winning move and he did.. He tends to blow good opportunities more than any other rider I know.. 

Michael Matthews is another that seems to be blowing good opportunities a lot lately, whether it's in Paris-Nice or in MSR, The only time he did this race, in 2018, he missed the main move and came home 2'52" down and I think we could see something similar tomorrow. 

Dylan Van Baarle, Stefan Kung, Anthony Turgis, Alberto Bettiol, Ivan Garcia Cortina and Sonny Colbrelli are others who could get involved but it's hard to see how any of them will even podium, let alone win. 

So as I said above, apparently Jumbo are not going to chase the break, which means that Alpecin and DQS probably won't chase either, which means the break might get quite a lead and might go quite far in to the race before they are caught. And it also means that the pace will explode when the top three teams press the button, as they will have lots of power and reserves left. The wind should be a factor too and don't be suprised to see some splits caused by well-timed pushes in the windy sections that could catch some guys out. 

Some break hopefuls at big prices that I'm going to throw some darts at at Dimitri Claeys at 200/1, Mads Wurst at 400/1 and Michael Gogl at 250/1, there is a slim chance they'll make it, or be caught late and maybe stick in there to hold on to Wout and MVDP.. 

But it's likely we will see the race come alive with 80kms to go, as they hit the Taaienberg, when I can see Wout and MVDP push it hard at the front and we could see the first real splits. Then we'll get a further whittle down at the Kappeleberg, but most likely we'll get a major separation on the Paterberg, with a final, decisive selection on the Kwaremont. If we get Wout and MVDP in that group, it's likely there might only be 6-10 at most that can stay with them. Then it's up to the Karnemelkbeekstraat and Tiegemberg to maybe see a solo winner go clear, or else it will come down to a small group sprint. 

And unless Ballerini has hung in there, then it's hard to see anyone beating Wout in the sprint. MVDP might have to try to solo away in order to win, which is entirely possible, he might even go from the Kwaremont. Of course, he could beat Wout in a sprint, he did it in the Ronde last year, but I think Wout has the edge this year. What could beat them is themselves, if they look at each other and play brinkmanship too far, then someone could escape.. and that could be Senechal, so I'm backing him too.

In fact, any of 3 or 4 DQS could get away if they play their cards right, I saw someone post that some bookie on the continent was offering 8/1 I think that a DQS would win, if you can get that it's worth a bet, otherwise Senechal and Lampaert are worth a small interest. Given Greg Van Avermaet's strong showing in MSR and his love for this race, he might just be able to stick with the top two and nab a podium place at 8/1. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Wout Van Aert at 9/4

0.5pts e/w on Florian Senechal at 28/1

0.25pts e/w on Dimitri Claeys at 200/1

0.2pts e/w on Mads Wurst at 400/1

0.2pts e/w on Michael Gogl at 250/1

1pt on Greg Van Avermaet to finish in the top 3 at 8/1

Matchbets

Michael Matthew to beat Ballerini - 2pts at 4/6

Teuns to beat Serrano and Pedersen to beat Kristoff - 3pts at 11/10

Van Avermaet to beat Pidcock - 2pts at 5/6