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Published on Thursday, 06 May 2021 10:30

Giro - Team Classification

Who can beat Deceuninck? 

Team classification - a tricky market to work out - you need to try to find a team that will score three guys high up the results in every stage, as it's the aggregate time of the top three finishers every stage added together that decides this competition.

So you will have teams who will work for their leader and then fade away a long way to the top of a climb, thus maybe having rider 2 and 3 lose quite a bit, and you will have teams who will ride steady and consistent and try to place several guys in the top 20 so as to score highly in the team prize. Then you have the teams who will have riders go in breakaways, if a break can win with 3 or 4 minutes in hand, that can help greatly too. Do that with different riders on different days and you can pull out a nice lead. 

Deceuninck Quick-Step are the 2/1 favourites and it's not hard to see why, with a squad packed with talent, 'the best GT squad in the history of the franchise' apparently. And they're not wrong. Remco Evenepoel could win this race if he's in top form, Joao Almeida and Fausto Masnada will be up there every day in the first 10 or 20 home in all the key stages, and James Knox won't be far behind if one of them falters. They will do well in the TTs too. 

As long as Remco is in the hunt, they are in the hunt for the team prize - Remco could be top 3 on a lot of stages, and Almeida and Masnada will be right there with him until late in the stage. Most days they could even finish in what's left of the peloton, if not, they won't be far behind. That consistent scoring will give them a big edge. If Remco should falter, or indeed any of the three of them, Knox is capable of some big rides too, and we could see Knox, Cavagna, Keisse and Honore in breaks which can also help. 

If Remco does struggle though, Almeida, Masnada and Knox could pick up the pieces to keep the team competition hunt going. The dangers to the bet is that if Remco is going well and gets himself in to a battle with Ineos, Yates and maybe Astana, then Almeida and Masnada might be put to work earlier on the climb than they would like to protect Remco and it could cost them later in the stage. If Remco is in Pink, then likewise, they will be asked to pull and chase down, which could hurt. 

Bahrain Merida were a bit of a surprise in 2nd place in the betting at 3/1 when I looked at first, I expected Ineos, but there's only a half a point in it, and when you think about it you can see why they are fancied. Mikel Landa, Pelle Bilbao and Damiano Caruso are Bahrain's three amigos like Remco, Joao and Fausto.. 

Landa will be up there in the first 10 on all the mountain stages, Bilbao and Caruso won't be far behind. Bilbao is capable of a stage win solo and Landa could hang on to the likes of Bernal and Yates on some of the tougher ones to help pull out some time on their rivals. They say that the whole team is 'all in' for Landa and that they will be working solely for him, but you'd think that the likes of Tratnik, Mohoric and Mader will be looking for opportunities to go in the breaks, if they stay away they could take big time, if not, they will be able to help Landa later on in the climbs and maybe finish high too. 

Ineos are 7/2 with Betway, so not much between them, and they too have their 3 amigos in Bernal, Sivakov and Martinez. Bernal, all being well, will be in the first 5 or 10 in all the key stages, Sivakov and Martinez not far behind. But they also have Moscon, Puccio, Narvaez and Ganna for breakaways where they could steal time. Ganna will be the only one in the top 30 of the TTs though, they won't be as good as DQS on that front, but they will go well in the mountains. 

They won this competition last year, and interestingly, it was partly down to Puccio of all people - he got in the break on stage 8 which won by almost 14 minutes, with none of their rival teams in the break. The next day, Castroviejo was the one in the break which finished over a minute ahead and Tao was 6th home, and suddenly they were 11 mins clear of everyone else.

DQS mounted a fightback, but the Ganna-Dennis 1-2 on the TT on stage 14 pushed it back to 13 minutes and it looked all over. Then on stage 15, despite Tao winning the stage, DQS placed Joao, Knox and Masnada in the top 11 and cut the gap to just 1'24". But again, bizarrely, it was Swift and Puccio who saved it for them, getting in the large break on stage 16 that finished over 12 mins ahead of the peloton, and with no DQS in the break, they were suddenly over 22 mins ahead again. 

Their mountain train is definitely the best in the race though, and they'll be pushing it hard at the front with Castroviejo, Martinez, Narvaez, Puccio and Moscon, with Sivakov and Bernal sitting in behind. If they can burn off the likes of Masnada, Bilbao and Caruso, and keep 3 guys going strong to the finish, they can start to make time on their key rivals for this. 

Again, like with Remco for DQS and Landa with Bahrain, their chances really hang on Bernal's fitness and his performance. If he's not 100%, then they will have to babysit him in the opening stages, if he slides out the back with 3-4kms to go they will drop with him and try to get him to the finish without losing too much time, and that will hurt them. If he's going well, it will lift the team and the likes of Martinez, Sivakov, Narvaez and Castro will push hard and will be finishing in the top 10-15 on stages. 

Movistar are the Team Classification kings, or at least they used to be. 9/2 now to win this competition, it wasn't long ago they were the DQS in this market, being 7/4 or shorter to take the title, with their three amigos of Quintana, Landa and Valverde and/or Carapaz. But this is a very different-looking Movistar team these days, with Marc Soler their only real standout GC challenger. And even then he's a long way from looking like winning this Giro. 

Rubio and Jorgensen are young but talented climbers, but will find it tough in this company, especially in the latter parts of the race. Pedrero is a top 40-50 kind of finisher, not a top 10-20 and Oliveira and Cataldo aren't much better. Their only hope really I think is if they are to go nuts on the break nearly every single day and try to get 2 or 3 guys in the breaks, and hope they stay away to take big time gaps.A break that wins by 8 minutes with two guys in it and no Ineos or DQS gives them a big advantage.

But that's a big ask too, I just can't see how they will finish even in the first three in this competition. I would like to take them on in a h2h with another team, but no one is offering team classification h2hs at the moment. Surprisingly they are the 4/1 third favourites with 365, with Ineos at 9/2, that I can't understand, if someone offers odds against on Ineos beating Movistar I'll be all over it. 

Trek Segafredo are 9/1 and they can only win this by being super-aggressive almost every non-sprint or TT day. They will need to get Mollema, Brambilla, Ciccone, Ghebra and Mosca in to breaks and hope they stay away. Nibali will be trying for GC probably, but if he struggles early on and loses time then we could see him on the attack too in the second and third week. 

Mollema says he is here to target stages, and he will be aggressive, you can count on that, Brambilla too should be looking to try his hand at breaks on select stages. Ciccone is also likely to be up the road a lot, especially if he's targeting the KOM jersey, but targeting the KOM could see him go hard mid stage for points and not always be near the first home at the finish. 

But what if Nibali mounts a serious GC challenge? If he's hanging in there in the first week and not too far off the lead, knowing he will probably get better in the last half of the race, as is his style, then the team dynamic will definitely shift to one of protecting the Shark. Ciccone, Mollema and Brambilla will have to reign in their ambitions, and that could be curtains for their hopes in the team classification.

But overall, they might offer a tiny bit of value, as I think Nibali is potentially not going to be able to mount a serious GC challenge. It could be all over for him by stage 6 if he can't stay with the young guns on the climb to San Giacomo and then we could see Trek cut loose. Ciccone, Brambilla, Ghebrei and Mollema - 2 or even 3 of them could make some of the big breaks that win stages, Nibali could go on the attack in week 3 too. I think a lot of stages will be won by the break, some by possibly a big margin, and Trek might be involved in a number of them. 

What about Team DSM at a big looking 28/1? Well Bardet and Hindley should go well, but after that they will struggle to consistently place 3 guys high up. Roche, Storer, Hamilton might be trying to get in the break some days, but they will struggle most days to finish in the top 30, so Hindley and Bardet's efforts might not be enough to get them in to contention here. 

And that's about it - Bike Exchange will be all-in for Yates, with Nieve, Schultz and Kangert giving all they can before dropping away on the big stages, Bora might get a lot of guys in breaks like Grosschartner, Sagan, Oss, Fabbro, Bodnar and Benedetti, but they will lose serious time on the big mountain stages when Buchmann and maybe Fabbro will finish in the top 20, but I can't see them in the top 5-10 on all the key stages so they will slip down the rankings. Israel SUN look a tad big at 1000/1 if the likes of Martin, De Marchi, Neilands, Dowsett, Bevin and Brandle start infiltrating every break, but they lack the GC backbone to make the big time gains. 

Overall though I think it's a battle between the top 3 in the betting, I can't have Movistar. DQS look to have a lot of the bases covered and might just have the edge with overall consistency. At a bigger price, if you can get e/w betting, Trek might be worth a punt at 9/1, but at the moment all the bookies are win only. They could do like Ineos last year, I think there will be lots of stages won by the break and they will have guys in lots of breaks, which could take 8, 10, 12 mins on some stages. 

I'll also be looking at opportunities in the h2hs if they ever open, come back for updates on that maybe Friday afternoon. 

Recommendation:

2pts on DQS at 2/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts e/w on Trek at 9/1 if you can get e/w betting