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Published on Friday, 25 June 2021 22:23

TDF 2021 Stage 1

Brest - Landerneau

June 26, 197.8kms

The Grand Depart of the 2021 Tour de France sees the riders visit cycling-mad Brittany and the race kicks off with an interesting stage that could be tailor-made for Julian Alaphilippe to pull on the first yellow jersey of the race.

This could be a cracking opener to the TDF, almost like a mini LBL or Strade Bianche (without the dirt roads) with six categorised climbs (and many more little lumps and bumps along the way too) within this near-200km route. With opening day nerves, relentless pace and possible cross-winds near the coast, this day could be carnage for some.

And then to cap it off, it ends with a cimb to the finish that averages 8.1% for the first 1.2kms, before easing a little for the last 500m. The fight to get to the bottom of the final climb will almost be as important as the last 500m, we should see a great battle, and it's likely we'll see someone's chances go up in smoke with a late crash/mechanical or just by being out of position at the wrong time.

It also opens up the stage to a whole range of potential winners, from the classics puncheur types like MVDP or Alaphilippe, to the GC men like Roglic or Pogacar, strong sprinters like Sagan or Colbrelli or even late attackers who steal a march as the favourites for the stage play cat and mouse. 

There is a possibility of some rain around 1-3pm, so that could add to the drama, but wind speed is projected to be low, around 3-5mph, so little chance of wind carnage.. 

The Route

Almost an out-and-back route, with the start and finish almost the same place. They head south for the first 75kms or so, taking in two Cat 4 climbs in the first 62kms, skirting the coastline as they go. After they pass through Quimper they turn back north and roll along for 30kms until the next Cat 4 after 115kms, turn east for 10kms or so, then north again until just after the Cat 4 Cote de Saint Rivoal (2.5kms at 3.6%). After that they are mostly heading in a north-westerly direction until the finish in Landerneau. 

There are loads of little hills on the run to the finish, which should see multiple attacks and a gradual wearing-down process that should see some of the sprinter-types dumped out the peloton. With just 4kms to go the turn back on themselves and head south to the final hill and it's a really interesting finish to the stage.

As they sweep along the harbour wall they suddenly take a sharp left around a very tight bend and on to a tight road that starts to climb (below).

It's not too steep to start with, but once they get out on to the Rue Jean Louis Rolland and on to the Route de la Fosse aux Loups it does get steeper, as you can see in the image below, where it averages 8.1% for 1.2kms.

The road does ease back quite a lot in the last 1.8kms to average around 3%, but actually there are lots of flat sections in the last 1500m which will possibly see a lot of the stronger sprinters get back on and maybe be able to challenge the likes of Alaphilippe and MVDP for the win.

Contenders and Favourites

Mathieu Van Der Poel opened as favourite and has just been getting shorter all week as punters have faith that he can smash it up that final hill. And it's not hard to see why - two stage wins in Suisse, beating Laporte, Alaphilippe and Matthews in one similar to this, but with a slightly easier finish, and beating Schachmann after attacking away late on in the flat run-in to the finish after getting over a Cat 2 8kms from the finish.

The TDS was his first race since finishing 2nd in the Ronde in April, his time between filled riding mountain bikes and training. Superb winner of Strade Bianche earlier in the year, that kick he showed that day on the steep climb up to Siena when he disposed of Alap and Bernal would probably see him win this by 10-20m or more. He also won two stages of the 2019 Tour of Britain with finishes like this, so there's no doubting his credentials to finish off the job, if he's in the right place at the right time. 

In fact, that could be the only thing that might beat him, his sometimes suspect positioning in the key parts of big races, especially when there's a big peloton full of GC teams fighting for position etc. If he's slightly out of position, stuck behind a wall of riders as they enter the tight turn left off the harbour road he might have to work hard just to get back to the front for the last kilometre. But there's plenty of time for him to get back on, that is, unless he's so far back there's a split caused by GC men up front and he might find it hard to bridge. 

His big rival Wout Van Aert (11/2) is sure to be up there too, and may even have a better sprint finish after a final 2kms like this. Jumbo will be all around him and he should be well protected, maybe even led out by Roglic, and he comes here on the back after winning the Belgian road race title, his first race since winning Amstel Gold in April. His results this year have been phenomenal - he has finished no lower than 13th in the 13 races he has started this year, with 5 wins, two 2nds and two two 3rds also. He will be happy to just sit in and wait for the sprint, letting VDP and Alaphilippe burn matches trying to attack

Julian Alaphilippe is also right up there in the betting at 13/2, and he'll be a man full of motivation to try to win this stage and take the first yellow jersey of the race. The finish looks good for him too, but maybe not steep enough for long enough.. He'll probably make a move near the bottom, but unless he gets a good group of committed strong guys with him who all give it everything to stay away, I fear they will be reeled in before the finish and there might be faster sprinters than him at the finish. 

Then you have the strong sprinters who wil be doing their best to hang on to the coat-tails of the guys above - Sonny Colbrelli, Peter Sagan, Michael Matthews, Christope Laporte, and at a real push Caleb Ewan, Arnaud Demare and Davide Ballerini. Of those, Sagan is sure to be there or thereabouts, and will be looking to get a good start in his fight for green, but I'm not sure he'll be winning this.

Sonny Colbrelli is my dark horse for Green in this TDF and he could just about hang in there I think, helped by Bilbao, Poels, Teuns and Haig and could well be one of the best sprinters left at the finish. He's been in really good form lately, taking a first and three seconds in the Dauphine and followed that up with his first win in the Italian nationals just under a week ago. He was superb on the uphill finishes of the Dauphine, and he could well be sitting on the wheels hitting the last 300m ready to go. 

The other that I like at the prices is Christophe Laporte at 33/1 he has a knack for sticking in with the punchy guys on finishes like this and has a decent sprint on him at the end of a tough finish like this. He's 8/1 with Unibet to finish in the top 3, but also he's 33/1 with Boyles who are paying 1/5 the odds for 5 places, and maybe that's the bet, five places give us more chances. 

Then you have all the GC guys - Roglic, Pogacar, Thomas, Carapaz, Martin, Valverde, Woods, Yates and Lutsenko - all will be looking to not lose any time in splits, so they'll be pushing it hard in the last 3kms, and their teams will be powering it with 10kms to go to to try to get them to the final hill without meeting trouble. I don't think any of them will be pushing it to the extreme on just the first stage, they won't want to waste any unnecessary energy for the sake of a few seconds. Martin, Yates and Woods might give it a go though from the bottom, they don't really have GC ambitions and could fancy a dig. 

Magnus Cort, Marc Hirschi, Ivan Garcia, Omar Fraile and Greg Van Avermaet are others who will be up near the front but it'll be hard for them to take a podium place I think.

The break has a slim chance, the route is quite lumpy and the peloton will be looking to take it careful on the first day, a strong break of committed rouleurs could build up a nice lead by the time it's time to start reeling them in. There may be some crosswinds though along the route, so it will be quite nervous and they may look to keep the pace pretty high to see if they can cause echelons and catch the unwary asleep. I think they will be reeled in early enough so that things calm down a little bit before the finale though, and then it will be a free for all up the final hill.

Van Der Poel is the obvious favourite, Alaphilippe also, but I've a funny feeling it might come back together in the last 2kms, well at least 30-40 guys might come back together, with GC men pulling hard to try to close gaps and team-mates of the likes of Colbrelli, Sagan, Laporte and Matthews will be trying to get them back to the front in time for the sprint. And Colbrelli and Laporte might just be able to land a decent result for us.  

I'm going to do as many previews as I can for the next three weeks, but it might not be every night.. And I haven't had time to do overall previews, but I'll try to add some of my thoughts here over the coming days. Pogacar is my main fancy for the overall though, I've backed him and backed him in doubles with France to win the euros, so all eyes on France for the next three weeks!

Sagan for green, with Colbrelli an each-way, haven't a clue about KOM, will have a think about it in the coming days too. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Christophe Laporte with Boyles at 33/1 paying 5 places

1pt e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at 10/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Valverde to beat Aranburu - 2pts at 5/6

Laporte to beat Matthews - 2pts at 13/8

Sagan to beat Ballerini and MVDP to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 4/5 all with Bet365