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- Published on Wednesday, 05 May 2021 14:20
KOM Betting Preview
Who will be the KOM at the 2021 Giro?
It's very difficult to predict who is going to be aiming to try to win the jersey and it often only becomes clear on the first mountainous stage when someone goes off in a break and tries to win every point available on the day.. Getting an early lead in this competition then turns the rider in to a points machine, picking up points all through the race to win the jersey.
Last year Ruben Guerreiro hadn't picked up a single point by stage 8, with Filippo Ganna leading the KOM competition thanks to his exploits on stage 5. Then suddenly, in one stage, he leapt to the top of the tree, picking up 84pts, thanks to being first over one Cat 1, 2nd over another and 1st and 2nd over the Cat 2 climbs.
Giovanni Visconti ran him close for a while, briefly taking over the lead on stages 15 and 16, but then Guerreiro got in the break of the day on stage 17, took 40pts in each of the first two Cat 1s and suddenly he was 50pts clear of Visconti, who unfortunately had to abandon the next day with tendonitis. Guerreiro also got in the break the next day and hoovered up another 37pts and it was all over.
The year before Chris Froome came from out of nowhere late in the race to steal the KOM jersey along with the GC and there was also a dramatic swing in 2016 with Damiano Cunego leading the competition and Mikel Nieve down in 6th place with just three stages to go. But Nieve also went nuts and picked up 48pts on stage 19 and 54pts on stage 20 to leapfrog over Cunego and take the jersey.
Like with the Points Jersey, the points are awarded in a scale depending on the toughness of the climb as follows:
The Cima Coppi - this is a special award for the highest point in the Giro every year, this year it is the Passo Pordoi on stage 16, where the first 9 over the top win the following points: 50, 30, 20, 14, 10, 6, 4, 2, 1. That stage 16 has a potential 170pts up for grabs with three Cat 1s and the Cima Coppi. With this stage alone offering such a large amount of points it could completely change the top of the mountains classification, but there are still plenty of points up for grabs in the last few stages.
If someone is targeting the jersey I would expect them to try to get in the break on stage 6, when the first Cat 2 out on the course appears (there is a cat 2 on stage 4's finish, but I think a GC rider could take that). Whoever takes the points on that and the Cat 3 just after it could take the jersey and try to hold on to it.
Then it might pay to just tick along picking up points here and there to stay in contention - the Cat 2 on stage 8 should be taken by the break too, and then going all-in on stages 9, 12, 14, 16 and 19 which offer a lot of points out on the course. A strong break should take the Cima Coppi points as the Pordoi is crested with 60kms still to go, and they could even hang on to the finish where they pass the Cat 1 Passo Giau along the way too. The climbs and points are as follows:
- Eleven 4th Cat climbs: the first three win 3-2 and 1 points respectively
- Eleven 3rd Cat climbs: the first four riders win 9-4-2-1 points
- Nine 2nd Cat climbs: first six riders win 18-8-6-4-2-1 points
- Twelve 1st Cat climbs: the first eight riders win 40-18-12-9-6-4-2-1 points
- Cima Coppi: The “Coppi Summit” for the highest point of the race. This year it is the Passo Pordoi on Stage 16. The first nine get 50-30-20-14-10-6-4-2-1 points
There are 688pts in total available in the race, 136pts more than last year. There are 585pts available out on the course compared to 239pts at the finish of stages, that's 105pts more than last year at the finish, swinging things back towards a GC winner slightly more than last year. When there are more points out on the course, the GC favourites tend to let others scrap out the climbs along the stages and just go hard in the final climbs.
The stage 16 is going to be crucial as I said in this with a massive 170pts up for grabs, but also, stages 17 and 19 have two Cat 1s, Stage 20 is another big one with the San Bernardino, Splugenpass and Alpe Motta offering 120pts, 80pts out on the road and 40pts at the finish. That's 80pts for the break to possibly snaffle up out on the course, or another 40pts if they make it all the way - the jersey could well be decided on the penultimate stage.
Contenders
Looking at the betting, it's a very similar market to two years ago, with a lot of the same faces!
We have Simon Yates the marginal favourite at 15/2 (he was 5/1 favourite in 2019) and he is sure to give you a good run for your money. He will be there or thereabouts on all the mountain stages, he'll be good for a stage win or more and we could very well see him take one or two of the final two stage Cat 1 finishes.
I can see him taking points possibly as early as stage 4 if it comes down to a GC finish, he could attack away on the Colle Passerino and take the 18pts on the way to the stage win. Stage 6 should see him score more points too, unless the break stays away and stages 9, 14 and 17 could well see him score at the finish.. maybe not winning all of them, but sure to be picking up lots of points along the way. Stages 19 and 20 could also see him take lots of points.
Stage 20 could even turn in to a GC day for all three of the big ones, if the GC teams go hard in the opening 80kms to keep the break on a leash and then reel them in on the 30km-long San Bernardino. That's 120pts potentially available on the second last day. If he's leading the race it's because he's the strongest in the race and could take lots of points on this stage too. If he's not, and maybe out of contention, he could well go for it to try to take the blue jersey home.
Giulio Ciccone is 8/1, the man who was on a mission from day 1 of the Giro in 2019.. He took it easy in the opening TT until the climb up the Madonna di San Luca, then went full gas in order to try to win the first KOM jersey, as there were KOM points available for the fastest up the climb part of the TT. He duly did and held it all the way to the finish, bar on stage 13 when Gianluca Brambilla briefly took it for one day.
He was one of the favourites for the KOM last year too, but by the time he withdrew with bronchitis after stage 13 he had only scored one solitary point. He had tested for Covid in September which forced him out of Tirreno-Adriatico, and off the bike for two weeks, so he was nowhere near the shape he needed to be.
This year he had been going ok, with a number of top ten places, but then on stage 6 of Catalunya he had to abandon due to knee pains when sitting in 16th place.. something else to worry about, but it has been more than 2 months since, hopefully he's back to full health. But that puts me off backing him for now, that and the fact that he might be asked to work a lot for Vincenzo Nibali in the opening week or so if Nibali is still recovering from his crash.
Egan Bernal is 9/1, and he's similar to Yates, in that if he's challenging for the win, he will be scoring lots of points, especially on the stage finishes with the 40pt Cat 1s. There is the same risk though with backing him for this as for the GC, if he's not 100%, then it might be a very bad idea.. but also, on the flip side, if he starts badly and loses some time he might switch to going for the jersey. I think though if it's a back problem, he won't be continuing in the race, so that's a negative also.
Can Ruben Guerreiro retain his title as the KOM of the Giro? He's 12/1 if you fancy him to repeat the feat. He was flying last year and made all the crucial breaks that rewarded well, and after winning stage 9 and taking 84pts on the day he was off and running with a bang. He kept his powder dry until stage 16 when he started hunting points again, and pressed home his advantage on stage 17 when he racked up an impressive 80pts to move 50pts clear of Visconti.
His form looks good this year too, with a good showing in the ToTA, 13th was his worst result out of the 5 stages, on his way to 8th place overall. He took a fine 2nd place in stage 5 of Catalunya, but couldn't go with Kamna when he kicked on. The question is, like with Ciccone, will he be asked to aid Hugh Carthy's GC challenge?
Thomas de Gendt is over-hyped and under-priced these days, the bookies take no chances with him for stage wins or KOM competitions. But the fact is, he hasn't really looked like winning a KOM competition in about 3 years and his win in stage 7 of Catalunya this year in Barcelona was his first victory since stage 8 of the TDF 2019.
He came with a late charge last year in the Giro KOM, picking up 97pts on stages 17 and 18 from the break, but he was never going to claw back Guerreiro's advantage. I think at just 16/1 he is not worth backing at the start of the race, I don't think his price will shorten, if anything it will get longer as he is asked to babysit Caleb Ewan until stage 13, when he goes home and let's De Gendt get on with De Gendting.
Giovanni Visconti gave this a real good go last year too though, even taking the jersey for two days from Guerreiro. He was still in 2nd place, 50pts behind Guerreiro at the end of stage 17, with plenty points still to play for, but unfortunately for him he had to abandon before stage 18, due to tendonitis. His form last year leading in to the Giro was markedly better than his form this year and he hasn't exactly been taking part in big races either..
He has won this competition in the past of course, in 2015, and he does come alive at the Giro, but at 38 years of age, I think I'll give him a skip for now and see how the legs are in the first week before deciding..
There are lots of other guys who could, should they get in the right break on the right day, start to challenge - Bauke Mollema, Davide Formlo, Fausto Masnada, Jefferson Cepeda, and even the other GC guys like Carthy, Landa, Vlasov and Evenepoel, but the only other two guys I like the look of are the experienced Romain Bardet and Marc Soler at the prices.
Romain Bardet for the same reasons I picked him for the KOM at the TDF 2019, he is not good enough any more to compete against the likes of Bernal, Yates and Evenepoel if they are 100%, they leave him behind when they start attacking hard in the closing stages. So why not lose some time early on and go for the KOM, to add it to his TDF KOM jersey? A lot of the stages will suit him really well and they are spaced out well enough that he can go for it on one or two days, rest for a few days and go again and score enough points to win it.
There's also the situation with Jai Hindley, who will probably be going for the GC given his heroics last year. He showed last year though that he is well able to look after himself on his own and we could even see Bardet going on the attack on some stages, taking the KOM points out on the course and then easing back to help Hindley in the final kilometres as much as he can. His form has been pretty good this year too, with 8th in Tirreno and 9th in the ToTA, we could see him have some fun in this Giro.
Marc Soler seems to be coming in to form at just the right time and should get better as this race goes on. He is the Movistar team leader, but I don't think he's good enough to challenge the top 6, maybe even the top 10 if he tries to go for GC. No-one remembers who finished 12th in the Giro, so why not use his attacking instincts and climbing abilities to go for the KOM jersey?
We could even see several stages where Soler and one or two other Movistar team-mates infiltrate the break, in an effort to also take the team prize.. with multiple cards to play on the stage, Soler will have an easier job taking the points on the course and maybe will be able to save the legs to go for the final climb KOM points too. At 80/1 he's worth a shot.
Dan Martin and Alessandro de Marchi for Israel are two others that interested me a little, as they both seem to be climbing well but won't be in contention for the GC, but I will wait a few stages I think to see how they are going.
I think it's wide open again, it's a bit of pot luck with this competition sometimes, but I am happy to start off with Romain Bardet as one of my picks and a nibble on Simon Yates to start with, he might not get much bigger in price in the first week, and if anything could show how good his legs are early on. I'll be watching with interest though to see who is going well and who has lost time for potential KOM opportunities in the 2nd and 3rd week.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Simon Yates at 15/2 with Bet365
1pt e/w on Romain Bardet at 33/1 with Betway
0.5pts e/w on Marc Soler at 80/1 with various.