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Published on Sunday, 23 May 2021 21:12

Giro d'Italia St 16

Sacile - Cortina d'Ampezzo

Monday 24th May, 212kms 

Yet another 'Queen stage' according to the roadbook, that's the third I make it so far.. but this one probably merits more than the others so far, it's a beast and one that Simon Yates has said "looks filthy".. he's not wrong!

The Passo Fedaia, Passo Pordoi and Passo Giau are all on the menu, taking the total amount of climbing in the stage to over 5,700m over the lengthy 212km distance. The Passo Pordoi, which tops out at 2,239m is this year's Cima Coppi prize climb, the race's highest point.  

Racing through the heart of the beautiful Dolomites, and they don't have long to wait until the climbing starts, just 10kms. After the break goes on the first Cat 1 of the day, which they top after just 26kms, the race should settle down for the next 70kms or so on flatter to gently rising roads. After the two intermediate sprints in quick succession though they turn west and head to the Fedaia and the Pordoi, two brutal Cat 1s within 40kms of each other. 

After a brief respite for 30kms it's on to the 2,233m Passo Giau, just 6m lower than the Cima Coppi Pordoi.. From the top it's a very fast and tricky descent for 18kms to Cortina D'Ampezzo, where there's one last sting in the tail - a kick up to the line for the last 750m at 5.2% on paving stones.

What will be interesting to see is just how many make the break, as I'm sure most GC teams will want to place a rider or two in there in order to help later on on the Pordoi or the Giau as things start to kick off. It might even be that we see attacks on the Pordoi from some GC men who have helpers waiting on the descent to try to power them along the 20km valley before the Giau

Stage 15 Review

A break went, but only with Oldani in it, and he couldn't hang with the leaders over the climbs. Cavagna and Knox got caught out in and early crash that saw to their chances of going in the break but at least they were able to carry on. Emanuel Buchmann wasn't so lucky, he had to abandon the race, as did Guerreiro, Berhane and Van Emden. 

But the big news for us was the abandonment of Nizzolo before today's stage, a little later than I promised, but exactly as I promised.. hope you guys are after taking full advantage of that and loaded up on matchbets against him and sided with Sagan. 

Great win for Campanaerts, just reward for him re-inventing himself as a 'classics' rider this year instead of focusing on TTs, that was a real classics day today and he was superb. I didn't think he'd have the kick to win that sprint, but he easily took it. Ineos had a rest day today and took no chances in the rain, the peloton came home 17'21" behind Campanaerts, and with Mollema in there, Trek have now jumped to the top of the Teams' Classification by over 10 minutes from Ineos.. Let's hope they stay there for those on at 9/1, but we also have Ineos covered at 7/2 just in case. 

The Route

Starts quietly enough for 10kms, then suddenly shoots skyward with a Cat 1 climb as they head north in to the Dolomites. La Crosetta is 13.3kms at 7.2%, a spiteful start to the day, but it is pretty steady all the way up and never goes above double digits. A bit of a plateau follows for 10kms, a 6km descent and they start heading towards the nasty twin ascents in the north-west corner of the route. 

Along the way they pass through intermediate 1 at 91kms and intermediate 2 at 117kms, where the road has really started to get steeper at this stage as they are on the lower slopes of the Fedaia Pass. The first 5kms are relatively easy, with even a kilometre of more or less flat road, but from km5 to km9 it gets steeper, averaging over 6.5%, then gets really steep for the last 6kms, with 3kms at 11.8% average (hitting 13.4%), and 3kms at 10.5%. 

It's only a short and fast descent to the start of the Pordoi Pass, it will take them less than 10 minutes, so not much rest time. Although the Pordoi is a HC climb, it is much more steady, 12kms at 6.6%. They will go through no less than 28 hairpins along the way, but no real steep, backbreakers, they're great climbing roads. There could be a chance to attack with 2kms to go from the top where it steepens to 8% and 10% in parts and there's 8 hairpins in about 500m, for someone who maybe wants to take the Cima Coppi. 

The descent off the top isn't too difficult, but they face 20kms on flattish, rolling roads, where a team-mate or two can be a big help. With 27kms to go they start on the Giau, this one is another Cat 1, averaging 9.3% for 9.8kms, and it too is pretty steady all the way, but does poke up to over 10% in parts. From the top it's just 17kms to go, 16kms of which more or less are descending. There is a little rise up though from 750m to go to the line at 5.2%, and this is on pavé just to make it a bit more interesting, although they are pretty smooth and shouldn't have any impact on the outcome of the race. 

The weather looks like it's going to be foul - rain all day, clouds, cold.. really horrible.. so it will be a survival of the fittest from the cold and wet as much as who has the best legs. 

Contenders

This is going to be brutal. Zoncolan was brutal, but boring, but also only for about the last 5kms, and the last 3kms in particular. This is going to be full on for over 100kms. It's a long stage at 212kms, longer than the Zoncolan one, and there is a huge amount of climbing to be done. 

And descending... It's not just going up you need to be good at in this stage, but you need to be able to descend too - there are over 40kms of fast, hard descents off the Passo's late in the stage, with the descent off the Giau finishing with less than a kilometre to go - the stage could well be won by the best descender in the break rather than the best climber. And all in the rain, cold, wet, cloudy, miserable conditions.. Don't be surprised if some guys come a cropper on one of the many big descents tomorrow.

We could see Sagan try to get in the break, there are two intermediate sprints before the big climbs start that he should take and add 40pts to his tally and probably put the competition out of doubt. But he will have to get over that Cat 1 climb at the start of the stage first, and that's no easy feat as there will be climbers in that break going for the KOM points and also trying to put as much time between them and the peloton as possible ahead of the rolling next 75kms or so that drag upwards towards the first of the passos. 

The break has a big chance today, as Ineos seem to be prepared to let breaks go now and not bother chasing, like we saw again today, the break won by over 17 minutes. And it also looks like none of the other teams are really too keen on chasing, or are actually any good at doing it - Astana were at the front most of the day on Saturday and basically made no inroads in to the lead of the break.

I give it about a 70/30 chance of winning tomorrow, but then again, what if Ineos were taking it easy in the last few days just so they can try to blow it up tomorrow on the big Passes? I'm not sure.. if there are any doubts or concerns about Egan's back, they will just let him take it as easy as possible until he needs to go for it. 

Expect the usual suspects to be trying to get in the break, Mollema, Bouchard and maybe even Fortunato now that he has 40pts too after Saturday, Mollema though was in the break all day again today though and although he will maybe be looking to score a lot of points if he gets in the break again, it might be to the detriment of his stage win chances. 

But also I'd be looking out for Formolo. He is out of the running now and hinted in a Velon video after Saturday's stage that he might have to focus on other objectives now and that there were big monumental climbs coming up on Monday:

https://twitter.com/VelonCC/status/1396151923787587586

I see he is as short as 10/1 which is ridiculously short, but then again, all the odds are appalling for tomorrow, makes you almost want to sit it out and not have a bet - Hirt, Pedrero, Formolo and Bouwman all around16/1. But he's the kind of guy that will go very well on big climbs like this and could ride away from the break on the top of the Passo Giau and I've had him in mind for this stage ever since seeing him go out the back door Saturday. And he's not a bad descender either. 

There will be a lot of guys keen to get in the break though, and it might be that we see a group of 20-30 go up the road early on, with some teams having maybe two or three in the break. We might see some of the GC teams like EF, DQS, Ineos, Astana and Bike Exchange put some guys in there too to help out later in the stage, so it will be interesting to see the fighting that might go on if Ineos try to get someone in there.. 

Actually, now with Vlasov almost 2 minutes down and not looking like he's going to be pulling that time back any time soon, Astana might well start to send guys in the break. But Luis Leon has looked ineffective and I think these climbs are too hard for him. The only other two guys I think would be good enough to get over the climbs and possibly have it in them to win the stage are Gorka Izagirre or Harold Tejada. But Gorka hasn't won a decent race in 3 years and a Grand Tour stage in 4 years. And Tejada has only ever won one race, a stage in the Tour de l'Avenir in 2019. So you couldn't have any faith in either of them. 

Lotto might get De Gendt and Vanhoucke, they are two of the last 3 of the team left, De Gendt will surely do something at some point. Not sure Vanhoucke is good enough to win a stage like this though yet, he's probably tiring at this point, especially after being in the break all day today.  

Koen Bouwman is another that I fancied for this and my man has been saying Koen is going to try again to get in the break, but 14/1? That's really short too. George Bennett just isn't good enough at the moment either, he wasn't able to go with Tratnik on the Zoncolan, not exactly a renowned climber. Their best chance is with Bouwman though and he was climbing really well earlier in the race when he did go for it and finished 26th on the Zoncolan. 

Movistar might send some guys up the road again, but who? Rubio and Pedrero were supposed to get in the break  on Saturday, but they ended up with just Oliveira, which they were disappointed with, hence why they chased their own man. So Pedrero might try again, but again, he's just 18/1.. Rubio is a little bigger at 33/1, but seeing as Pedrero finished 17th on Zoncolan, between Vlasov and Almeida/Evenepoel, it looks like he's going the better.

Grosschartner and Fabbro could be two options for Bora, now with Buchmann gone, but we've seen nothing of Grosschartner so far in this race, and he's cost me enough money as a result.. But he's bound to go out and win tomorrow now eh for his mate Emanuel, and now that he's free of his bodyguard shackles. At 25/1, maybe it's worth a go so as we don't have that awful feeling tomorrow when he's crossing the line with his arms in the air. 

Vincenzo Nibali is reported to have broken ribs in a crash today, so it's unlikely we'll see him at the front tomorrow, even possibly at the start line. But Trek will be looking to Mollema again as I said, but also maybe Brambilla or Mosca, Brambilla will be smarting after his relegation to 4th on Friday, and will be looking to stick his two fingers up to Bennett. He rode well on the climbs Friday, but then threw away his chances after getting in to the spat with Bennett. 

Is it finally the day we see Rudy Molard get in a break? His failure to do so yet in the race, even once, when all sorts of lower level riders have been able to, suggests to me that he's just not very good at these flat out efforts at the start of a race, or just always picks the wrong moves. Having said that, the steep climb that starts after just 13kms will help him to get away a bit more than a long rolling or flat opening to the stage. 

Geoffrey Bouchard will be up there, but I can see him fading early in the three big ones, Mikel Nieve just doesn't seem to have the legs but will also be staying with Yates you'd think, and Reichenbach and Storer got injured in the crash today it seems. The only other guys at bigger prices I would have a small interest in are Lafay at 66/1 and Roche at 200/1. We saw how well Lafay has been climbing and Roche looks to have really good legs too and is no longer going to be required to stay with Bardet. He just might be the kind of guy that can hang in there on these climbs with a break and could pull something off on that finish. 

Of course it could all be in vain if Ineos decide that they want to take this stage, and set Bernal up for a glorious win over the Passo Giau, he could be teed up for an attack in the last kilometre or three of the Giau, just after they've caught the last of the break and then he goes over the top with a 30-40" lead which he holds all the way to the line while the others are all over the place behind.

Or could it be the day that we see Simon Yates hit out again and maybe even try striking for home early? Could he have team-mates in the break waiting for him for an attack on the Pordoi, where he takes the Cima Coppi and then they hammer it down the valley to the Giau, with Ineos in tatters behind and Bernal isolated and chasing on his own? It's a possibility.. but getting away from Egan is the hard part of it. 

It's hard to see any of the other GC men win it, if it comes down to a battle of who can get over the top of the Giau solo from a GC group, I can't see Bernal just letting anyone ride away in the form he is in at the moment. If anything, the best the others can hope for is that they reel in the break, but there are no attacks that stick and a small group of some 20 guys come to the finish together, and then we could see the likes of Almeida from the sprint, or Bilbao from a late attack down the descent.

Romain Bardet or Dan Martin could try their luck with a late attack at the top of the Giau, with maybe 2-3kms to go and hope that Ineos just ride tempo and Bernal stays in their wheels and isn't too bothered about them.. then we could have a fun two-up sprint between them.. 

So I'm leaning to the break but a lot of prices are shit. For that reason I can't back some I'd like to, but I feel I have to stick with Formolo since I spotted that intereview, it's been on my mind since. And Bouwman, Brambilla, Roche and Grosschartner, just in case. Surely we'll get a run for our money one of these days. The weather will make it even more of a lottery, but hopefully we'll get one or two of these guys in it. 

Recommendations:

1pt win Davide Formolo at 12/1 with Betway

0.25pts win on Nico Roche at 200/1 with Betway 

0.5pts win on Gianluca Brambila at 33/1 with Unibet

0.5pts win on Koen Bouwman at 18/1 with Unibet

0.5pts win on Felix Grosschartner at 22/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Antonio Pedrero at 18/1 with Bet365

0.25pts e/w on Victor Lafay at 66/1 with 365

Matchbets

Vlasov to beat Carthy - Vlasov I think just had a bad day on the Zoncolan, but otherwise had been riding better than Carthy on some of the climbs. Also Carthy isn't a very good descender and could be gapped by Vlasov on the way to the finish. 2pts at 4/6 

Caruso to beat Bardet and Martinez to beat Evenepoel - 2pts at evens, both with 365