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- Published on Tuesday, 11 May 2021 20:54
Giro d'Italia St 5
Modena - Cattolica
Wed 14th May, 175kms
This stage could quite possibly be one of the most boring races we're going to have to endure all year. And it's live from the very start! The highest point on the course is 67m and it's almost pan flat and dead straight all the way from Modena to Cattolica.
The stage follows the Via Aemilia Roman road which dates from the second century BC and ran for over 250kms from Piacenza to Rimini. The only thing that might light up the stage is when they hit the coast at Rimini with 30kms to go, if there's a wind blowing.. Some teams might want to try to split things up before an inevitable sprint finish.
Stage 4 Review
Crazy start to the stage today as expected, with one of my late picks Hermans and Campanaerts getting away from km0 and lots of attempts behind that went nowhere.. they dangled at 20" for a long time until eventually a few larger groups got away and eventually caught the front two and we had our break of the day.
And what a break it was, with 25 riders, including two of our late additions (Taaramae and Hermans), De Marchi and Tratnik who I considered but left on the tips, Oliveira, Conti, Valter, Gavazzi, Edet, Serry and lots of guys from the smaller teams. De Marchi and Valter went 6/1 fav with Taaramae just after them at 13/2. With Ganna pulling at the front though the gap dropped back from 6'27" to 5'42" as they passed through the feed zone with 111kms to go but once the leaders knuckled down again after a feed they pushed it back out to well over 6 mins.
Juul Jensen attacked on a descent and took Hermans and Taaramae with him and for a long time it looked like we'd have a good result at last, with Taaramae trading in to odds on with 40kms to go when they held a lead of around 2 mins on the chasing group that included De Marchi, Vervaeke and Dombrowski.
Hermans got dropped, Taaramae and Jensen looked to have the stage between them as they hit the final climb, but De Marchi was coming.. suddenly he was favourite for the stage as Taaramae and CJJ tied up. But out of nowhere it was Joe Dombrowski who emerged to attack just after the front two were caught, De Marchi couldn't go with him and it was all over. ADM paced himself to ride in to Pink though, as they finished 1'37" ahead of the first GC men home.
And what drama we had behind as well - Landa attacked, bridged to Ciccone who had attacked a little earlier. Vlasov went in pursuit, followed immediately by Bernal and suddenly there were gaps all over the place. Hugh Carthy got across to them and they pushed on. Evenepoel and Yates were caught out a little and ended up losing 11" to Bernal, Vlasov and Landa. Others were bigger losers though, Joao Almeida had a nightmare and lost 4'11" to Bernal's group. Nibali, Sivakov, Buchmann, Hindley, Soler and Bilbao lost 23" to them.
Impressive out of Landa, Bernal, Carthy and Vlasov, but I think we can also take today's stage with a bit of a pinch of salt, the weather conditions were awful and some might have underperformed. But still, it started to sort out the men from the boys and it's only stage 4. Throroughly disappointing day betwise, the Wanty boys were looking really good for a long time, and Landa beat Carthy in the matchbet by a half a wheel. Hoping for better luck from now on.
Great day for 500/1 shot Dombrowski though, but as someone joked on Twitter, I feel like I have backed him all the other 499 times he's not won.. Two 500/1 shots winning in a row though, it's getting silly now. Great day in the end for De Marchi though, he rode in to the Maglia Rosa for the first time in his career. And look at Fiorelli in 3rd place, he was 1000/1, not a bad each-way if you had him..
The GC betting has had a major shakeup, with Bernal diving from 4/1 to 6/4 favourite again, Evenepoel is now 6/1 and Vlasov and Yates are 13/2, with Landa in to 10/1 and Carthy in to 9/1. Sivakov is a big faller, down to 40/1, but not as bad as Almeida who is out to 150/1. It's very early in the race and a lot of racing to be done yet, but the 11/2 on Yates looks like a nice price to top up with, he did pop out briefly to 7/1 but it didn't last long. Adding another 1pt at 11/2 on Yates though.
No real change in the sprinters or KOM competitions, but Vlasov moves to the top of the white jersey comp (ignoring Valter who will fade away), with Evenepoel and Bernal 4" and 15" behind him. Bahrain take the lead in the team competition, from Ineos and UAE, but again it's early days and lots of racing to be done, we know how one break can change things massively.
The Route
Long, straight, flat, nothingness, then they hit the coast and it might get interesting. Otherwise, a boring sprint stage.
It's going to be raining again, especially in the afternoon with the heaviest rain falling in the 3-5pm window, just as they're finishing. Looking at the wind though, it looks like it will be coming at them from inland, from the west-south-west, meaning it will be a slight headwind all day long.. will make the stage even longer and more boring than originally feared.. With wind speeds of 9-11mph, I don't think it will be strong enough to cause problems, but if it starts gusting on the coast, we could see some teams push it to try to cause some splits.
As they enter the last 4kms things get a bit interesting though. Coming through the city streets of Cattolica there is lots of street furniture and roundabouts to navigate. With 2.7kms to go there is a tight left-hander, a long straight for 500m, then another tight 90 degree left-hander, as they descend slightly down towards the beachfront.
There's another tight left with 1.7kms to go, 600m of a straight, another 90 degree left-hander, straight for 100m then a 90 degree right-hander, so they almost come full circle and back to the road they came in on, sprinting parallel to it for the last 950m. It rises ever so gently to the line, but it's dead straight and wide, but they will be facing a slight cross-headwind, so coming late will be important.
Route Map
Profile
Contenders and Favourites
So I've found out yesterday that Dylan Groenewegen's gears were jumping in the last part of the sprint, that's why he stopped pedalling and cost us the top 3 bet, which is hugely annoying. If you watch the last 100m or so you can see his bike has issues. He is feeling great, the legs are good and he was positioned brilliantly in the end, so I think we were very unlucky there, the price was good.
Also though, I felt that he didn't get the best protection before the sprint, he was quite isolated in the last 4kms and had to do some accelerations himself to get in position before Affini and Dekker finally came up. It was the first time he's ridden with them though so they can be forgiven in such a messy finish, there were no teams really got it anywhere near perfect, just look at Lotto for example. He said he was happy with them after though, they did ultimately deliver him to a great position on Merlier's wheel with 300m to go.
Sagan followed Groenewegen but just didn't have the speed in the end to get past the front guys. He was also beaten in the sprint for 2nd place yesterday by Cimolai, not a top-level sprinter, but he did beat Viviani and Gaviria, although Viviani did claim Cimo cut him up in the sprint, causing him to lash out at him after the finish line.. I gave Sagan a go in the first sprint, but looking at Nizzolo, Viviani, and maybe even Gaviria if he gets a clear run, I am not sure Sagan will be on the podium this time, one for the 4th-9th place market on Bet365 in play.
Elia Viviani continues to be Elia, sprinting to 3rd and 4th place, fighting with opponents, being grumpy and sulky. I remember being at the finish of the TOB in 2013 after the finish line and Bennett and Viviani stopped almost right in front of me.. Viviani was shouting abuse at Sam and tried to hit him but Bennett, at just 22 years of age, was having none of it and pushed him back.. Viviani was pissed that Bennett had taken Cavendish's wheel in the sprint and finished ahead of him in 2nd place behind Cav.
It does show though that he is disappointed with 3rd and 4th places, which is good to see, he must feel he has the legs to do better, he did really well to hang on Monday on the hills to get to the sprint. If we get Merlier, Ewan or Groenewegen in top speed though I don't think he can beat all three of them, so he might have to settle for podium again.
Giacomo Nizzolo was closest to Merlier on stage 2's sprint, but then really struggled in stage 3 on the hills, he was dangling for a long time before eventually cracking on the Manera, 35kms from the finish. He was fancied to do well on stages like this too, so that was a bit of a surprise. He also was dropped very early today, along with David Dekker and Groenewegen. This is a different stage entirely though so should be right in the thick of the action of the sprint again, but can he beat Merlier this time? Or Ewan or Groenewegen with better runs?
Matteo Moschetti sprinted brilliantly on Sunday, taking a fine 6th place just behind Sagan, but you'd have to think that's about the limit of his abilities, if Ewan and Gaviria were sprinting properly they are likely to finish in front of him. And look who finished 7th on Sunday, none other than Filippo Fiorelli, sprinting to a top ten on Sunday, then finishing 3rd on a mountain stage today.. proabably 1000/1 for both stages, absolutely bonkers. I doubt he'll be up there again, but you'd never know, maybe he's on some good vitamins or something at the moment.
Davide Cimolai sprinted to a fine 9th place on Sunday, but followed that up with an even more impressive 2nd place on Monday, ahead of Sagan and Viviani. He clearly has great legs at the moment, but can he repeat that impressive result and challenge for a top 3 here? I'm not sure, but he could be another for 4th to 9th in play.
So do we give Dylan another chance? Well at 11/2 he offers a tempting e/w price, if he can sprint like he did on Sunday, and not skip gears, then he has to go close again and should podium. I think he will be all over the back of Merlier's wheel this time, if not, Nizzolo's, and if Merlier goes long again maybe he might be able to pick him off in the last 50m, especially as it's in to a headwind, it will favour those coming late.
Coming late might also favour Viviani too so he could nip a podium spot at 9/4. Groenewegen, Merlier, Ewan and Nizzolo have all struggled in the last two stages, Viviani was 3rd last finisher alongside Consonni and his brother today though, he must have either taken it REALLY easy or he was suffering a lot in the cold and wet conditions. Caleb Ewan did finish just 8" ahead of him. Groenewegen finished over 7 minutes ahead of him in the Gruppetto though with Merlier, Sagan and Nizzolo, they must have felt a little better.
A tough sprint to call again, today might affect a lot of guys in different ways, so maybe one to have small stakes on and we wait for better opportunities.
Recommendations:
1pt e/w on Dylan Groenewegen at 11/2 with Betway
1pt on Viviani to place at 9/4 with Unibet
Matchbets
De Buyst to beat Molano - I think Molano will be staying well and truly out of Gaviria's way tomorrow and will drop him off on to the wheels early, whereas De Buyst will likely be driving Ewan on their own line and will keep going. 2pts at evens.
I think Pasqualon to beat Dekker also looks like a good bet at 11/10 as Dekker will drop off Groenewegen with 700m or so to go, whereas Pasqualon should be sprinting.. But I will confirm in the morning or later tonight if I find more about team orders. UPDATE - Haven't had an update as such, but my man agrees with my selection, we think Wanty will still be buzzing and going for it again today, whereas Dekker's job will be done quite a way from home on that tricky finish. 3pts at 11/10 with Unibet
I also like Naesen to beat Fiorelli at 6/4, Fiorelli had another hard day today to finish in 3rd place on a really tough stage, will he be up to sprinting again? AG2R backed Naesen in their pre-race meeting on Sunday to go for the sprint, I can't see why they wouldn't do so again given he finished in the top 10 last time. 2pts at 6/4 with Unibet