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Published on Thursday, 20 May 2021 21:30

Giro d'Italia St 13

Ravenna - Verona

Thurs 21st May, 198Km

This stage looks like a boring waste of 5 hours, but should the winds blow in off the Adriatic, we could be in for a more interesting stage.. But it's unlikely we'll see much drama with the mountains looming on the horizon, most will treat this as a rest day, before a bunch gallop in Verona

Nothing really of note about the stage, other than the fact that the race passes through the town of Bagnolo San Vito, home town of Learco Guerra, the first rider to wear the pink jersey some 90 years ago. Not only did he win the Giro in 1934, "The Human Locomotive" won 31 Giro stages in his career. Not bad at all. 

Stage 11 Review

Huge battle for the break, it took 64kms of furious racing before a break finally was let get up the road. Loads of our guys tried over and over to get away, including De Gendt, Molard, Bouwman and Tratnik, but none were able to get away with the move that counted. Seems to be happening a lot. 

An early crash in the peloton saw Marc Soler suffering off the back, and it wasn't a surprise when he abandoned soon after with back pain. What was a surprise was our man De Marchi tried to join a break and crashed badly on a descent, and he ended up being taken away in an ambulance. Masnada, Dowsett and favourite for the stage Mader also abandoned. 

Up front, Brambilla of course got in the break the day after we picked him, Bennett was there instead of Bouwman, along with Ulissi, Bouchard (aided by Vendrame to take the KOM points), Edet, Visconti, Hamilton in a group of 16. They built a lead of over 9 mins eventually as the peloton just set a steady tempo.

Gradually the group was whittled down to just 4 guys, with Bennett, Brambilla, Vendrame and Hamilton left up front, with Visconti chasing 50" behind. Then we had the bizarre situation in the last 3kms as Bennett and Brambilla bickered with each other and let Vendrama and Hamilton just ride away from them to contest the win. Vendrame easily won the sprint, as you'd expect from a 'sprinter', annoying when you've backed him several times in this race already. Good for the points bet with Bevin though I guess at least. 

Nibali attacked, Moscon crashed, but otherwise it was a pretty uneventful stage for the main GC men. 

The Route

Not going to waste much time on this one, it's dead flat all day, we might get a little bit of action if the wind blows as the terrain is so flat and open, but it's 1/100 that we'll get a bunch sprint in Verona. The final 3.5kms are arrow straight with very little to hamper them, other than a roundabout with just under 3kms to go, and another with about 500m to go. 

Contenders and Favourites

So here we go then, the last chance for the pure sprinters with still eight stages to go! It's a very weird end to the Giro for the sprinters, and I'm sure many of them will go home after this one, not a lot to keep them here unless they're prepared to fight Peter Sagan for the jersey. Tim Merlier and Caleb Ewan have already gone home, the two fastest men in the race, so how will this sprint go then with two sprint trains less to control the race? I've been told that Nizzolo has stayed in the race a little longer because Pozzovivo crashed out, I'd expect him to go home after this one, nothing to keep him in the race.    

Is there a chance that with Merlier and Ewan out, the lack of chase power might allow the break to make it all the way? I doubt it. We still have plenty of teams interested in sprinting for the stage win and Alpecin and Lotto still have guys who could sprint instead - Vermeersch and De Bondt sprinted to 5th and 6th on Monday and Oldani sprinted to 4th.

But it looks like it will fall to Cofidis, Bora, Qhubeka and UAE to do the most of the pulling, as they will have the main favourites for the sprint. Cofidis have probably the fastest leadout men in the peloton now, with Consonni and Simeoni, but boy were they let down by Viviani in that last sprint on Monday. After getting detached because of Kanter's crash in the last km, Consonni did a brilliant job to shoot Viviani back to the front group just as they were about to start the final kick for home.

Consonni came with great momentum around the left side, but rather than stay on his wheel and be dragged up to the front at speed, from where he could have launched a sprint in full flight, he stalled, pulled in behind slow wheels and got bumped twice which knocked all his speed off, and that was that, his sprint was dead. It was the sprint of a man low in confidence, not just in himself but in what his leadout man was doing.

He didn't want to go to the front too soon and didn't trust his kick with just 300m to go. If they can come with a burst through the pack again like that off the roundabout with 500m to go, and if Viviani kicks hard with 200m or less to go, then he could win this sprint. 

Fernando Gaviria should also be disappointed with his performance on Monday, he looked to be going the best of all the sprinters on the hills, where even Sagan looked like he was suffering. Molano actually did a brilliant job to accelerate up the barriers on the right hand side just as the pace knocked off a little bit, and he should have been the perfect launchpad for Gaviria who was on his wheel. 

But instead of following his lead man through on the inside and getting the jump on Sagan and the others, he stopped and pulled in behind Sagan. Sagan saw Molano come through at speed and thought "I'm having that wheel" and jumped on to Gaviria's leadout, before kicking inside the 200m to go sign. I think Gaviria panicked a little and thought that he really should take Sagan's wheel, maybe arrogantly thinking he'd take him in the final sprint to the line. But Sagan held him off easily, he never looked like passing him. 

Again, Gav needs to trust Molano to pull him through to the front in the last 300m like he did Monday. But it's hard to blame Gaviria's lack of trust in him with how he had ridden the previous sprint leadouts, he was more a hindrance than a help. But they looked like they might be starting to get the understanding going, it was Gaviria's fault that he didn't follow his man through, if they get it right this time, they could well take it. 

Peter Sagan rewarded the team after a brutal demolition job on all the sprinters on Monday, he showed great speed to launch early and hold it all the way to the line. He had taken the sting out of the legs of the other sprinters it would seem, as Vivani and Gaviria looked a bit flat-footed in the finale. This will be different though, with the pan-flat course, I don't think Bora will be able to cause any sort of damage like that this time. And as good as his sprint was on Monday, I'm not sure he'll be able to beat all of these sprinters on a flat sprint like this. 

Davide Cimolai has been a revelation in this race so far, he's like a rider reborn! I thought he might go well in this Giro, he's definitely doing far better than Bevin is, and our pts matchbet with Kanter looks pretty good at the moment. But I didn't expect THIS good. Two 2nds and a 3rd, plus a 9th and a 10th in the sprints isn't a bad return for the week. His best results though have come on the tough, hilly days, whereas the 9th and 10th came on flat sprints. He continues to surprise though, he certainly has surprised me with his two 2nds, but do we really want to back him at just 16/1 for the stage win?

Dylan Groenewegen won't have to worry about getting dropped on this stage you'd think, this is the sort of dream stage for him to maybe finally land that win. It was incredibly disappointing and frustrating the way it turned out on Monday, particularly as the info I'd received was that he was climbing really well and that they'd wait for him if he got dropped.. it didn't turn out that way, and their 'reserve sprinter' Dekker didn't fare much better, he too was dropped on the hills outside the town.

With a dead straight finish more or less, and no hills on the route, maybe he could go close this time. It's really hard to trust him as he's cost us so much already in this race, but if Dekker, Jos and Affini can get it right this time he could be placed nicely in the first 5 hitting the last 300m and could well kick to a top 3. He would normally wipe the floor with these guys, but how's he feeling after 12 stages after so long out? The bookies fear him though, they opened with him as the 3/1 favourite.

Andrea Pasqualon, Andrea Vendrame, Stefano Oldani, Gianni Vermeersch, Dries de Bondt, Matteo Moschetti, Max Kanter and Manuel Belletti will all be up there too, but it would be a big surprise to see any of them winning it. Max Kanter owes his team-mates though after they did a lot of work for him in the last 5kms, to have him in a great place, only for him to fall over inside the last kilometre. Andrea Vendrame was brilliant today, will he be contesting a sprint tomorrow too, or resting and recovering for the rest of the race? Dries de Bondt also had a tough day today in the break today. 

The bookies can't really split them, and it's understandable - any one of about 5 of these guys could win it, and it could all come down to a bit of luck in the sprint, taking the right wheel or jumping at just the right moment. There are no weather concerns tomorrow, a slight tail wind on the dead-flat finishing straight, so jumping early isn't such a bad thing. So you'll need a good leadout with that long straight and to come with speed in the last 200m.

I don't think Nizzolo has the speed to win, but as this could be his last stage of the race I think he'll be giving it absolutely everything and can land a podium spot. Viviani has shown less speed than Gaviria in previous sprints so I'm reluctant to back him, but Gaviria, if everything falls in to place, could well have what it takes to win this. He can be launched by Molano early and if he hits the last 100m at speed I'm not sure any of the others will be able to get past him.

I'm waiting to hear how Dylan is and whether there is any confidence in him for tomorrow, I'll update this in the morning if I hear anything, but for now I'm not sure he's capable of the win, but a place is very possible given his pedigree. 

UPDATE - 10:25am - Quick note - the Ladbrokes trader is asleep and they haven't updated their Team Classification market after yesterday's stage and Brambilla's 10 min gain for Trek and Bahrain's calamity with Mader abandoning. They are still 4/1 Trek, Bet365 have them at 5/4, which is more accurate. Bahrain are still the 10/3 fav with them, they are 33/1 with 365. They also have DSM at 12/1, they should be 7/2, have a point on them too as a saver. 

4pts on Trek at 4/1 with Ladbrokes, 1pt on DSM at 12/1

Recommendations:

1pt win on Gaviria at 9/2 and 2pts place at 7/5 with Unibet

2pts on Nizzolo to place in the top 3 at 17/20

Matchbets

Gaviria to beat Cimolai and Bernal to beat Vlasov (Bernal almost always finishes high up in stages, even sprint stages, he's finished ahead of him in every sprint stage so far) - 2pts at evens with Unibet (boosted)

UPDATE - 11.05am - Minali to beat Lawrence Naesen in the sprint - Minali is from just outside Verona so should be given the sprint duties today ahead of Pasqualon. I am also going to look at the finishing positions market on 365 once the stage goes in play, I might have a go on Pasqualon to finish 10th or worse depending on the price. Will update around 1pm once the markets are up. 3pts on Minali to beat Naesen.