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- Published on Friday, 14 May 2021 19:30
Giro d'Italia St 8
Foggia - Guardia Sanframondi
Sat 15th May, 170kms
The first of two interesting weekend stages, with a stage made for a breakaway. They head west from Foggia and in to the Matese Regional Park, with a big, 20km lump to get over in the middle of the stage and an uphill run to the line for the last 12kms.
The stage starts with an uphill drag for the first 12kms, which might see the break go, but I would it expect to see it heavily contested and it might be that a break doesn't snap the elastic until they hit the steeper parts of the next climb from kilometer 30-35, where it averages over 6%.
You will need to be strong to get away and be able to climb, as there is plenty climbing ahead of them, including the near-25km drag up to the top of the hill that tops out just after the intermediate sprint at Campobasso, and shortly after the main event, the 20km climb of the Bocca della Selva, which averages just 4.5%, but has some sections in the 6-7% bracket.
And then, after a massive 40km descent they hit the final climb, which climbs for more or less the last 12kms, but the Cat 4 categorised part is 3.5kms at 6.8%, and seeing as the last 500m is just 4.2%, the climbing is closer to a 7% gradient - enough to probably see a solo rider go away or at least strip the remnants of the break down to make it a very small sprint group.
Stage 7 Review
Boring stage, Pozzovivo DNS this morning was the only news of note. Break was almost caught a long way from home, thanks to Bora and Qhuebeka ripping it in to the hill before the intermediate sprint, when Qhubeka got it all wrong and lost Nizzolo and Sagan and Oss kicked on and took the remaining sprint points available. It all settled down again though and the break's lead went back up from under a minute to over 2 mins.
The final catch was made 17kms from home and things kicked off in the last 3kms as we expected. Lotto Soudal were excellent, or should I say Jasper de Buyst in particular, to take Ewan in to the bottom of the hill, and he easily stayed in front, the puncheur attacks never materialising. De Buyst kept him at the front brilliantly in the last km, and they didn't panic when Gaviria launched a clever early attack with the tailwind behind him.
Gaviria got about 10m of a gap, but Ewan kept coming, with Merlier, who had to stop for a 'Dumoulin' earlier in the stage struggling to hold his wheel. Ewan came past him easily with 100m to go and easily held the chasers off to the line. Another brilliant sprint though from Cimolai, I'm a bit annoyed I didn't take him at 28/1 e/w, I thought about it and again this morning, but left it. More points in our matchbet with Kanter though for the points comp, I think that's sewn up as long as he finishes.
So a good winner with Caleb, annoyingly it was a -0.5pt day if you took all the bets, as Nizzolo, for once, didn't finish 2nd, he was caught out of position, coming through the bend with 900m to go he was in 21st place, about 30m behind Ewan and never really recovered. Consonni also had issues it seems, he finished 1'48" down with a small group, it looks like there may have been some issues behind as Hugh Carthy seemed to have been caught up in something that cost him time, but it was cleared because of the 3km rule.
The Route
They head west for most of the stage, rising gently from the start, going over a small hill after 12kms as they enter Lucera, then it continues on in to the Matese Regional Park, and climbs to 600m for the first real challenge of the day, and where the break's lead should shoot up.
The carry on west, descending to the lakeshore near Svinc. di Gambatesa where the road starts rising again, this time up an uncategorised rise, but it tops out at over 800m, making it a not-too-inconsequential obstacle along the route. A short and fast descent takes them to the foot of the big climb of the day, the Cat 2
From the summit they descend for 40kms to the foot of the final ramp to the finish - it might give some of the break who might have got dropped on the climb the chance to get back on, and possibly the chance for the better descenders up front to drop the slower ones.
There is one more intermediate sprint to get through with 162kms gone and they are already on the final climb to the finish. They turn left with just over 3kms to go and the road hits 6.8, 7 and 7.8% for the first 1500m, hitting 11% in one part with about 2.4kms to go. They weave through a few switchbacks and as they go through the last one they see the flamme rouge. It's still around 7.4% gradient here, so they'll be really feeling it, but as they head to the final bend right the road eases a little to just over 4% and stays that way to the line for the last 250m.
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Route Map
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Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
So again, break or GC? The course would suggest break makes it again, the fact that the next stage is a tough mountain stage also suggests the break makes it, and with the amount of strong guys still with fresh legs who seem to want to get in the break, that would suggest it makes it too. So it's another lottery day, let's hope we get another few guys in the break.
Bookies seem to agree too, they have break guys as their favourites for this, with the early prices from Betway anyway, they make Ulissi their 11/1 favourite. Not sure why he's SO short, I checked was he from the start or finish town, but he's from Cecina on the Tirreno coast, 650kms away.. so that's not it.
Then I thought maybe he'd said something in an interview today about saving the legs today and going for it tomorrow, but in an interview with him before the stage he said that he was working for Gaviria today and that the legs weren't great at the moment, getting there, but not there yet.. https://twitter.com/cyclingpronet/status/1393171165905031177. So I don't know. The stage might suit him, but 11/1 is just silly.
Bauke Mollema of course will be fancied to go again, but he had to dig deep the other day and was wiped out at the end, couldn't stay with Mader. Maybe give him a few days to recover, they showed him today at the back of the bunch and he was stretching his back and legs, I think he was still feeling it.
I'm going to give Molard, Storer and Vanhoucke another go, they tried hard on Wed. to get in the break, made the first one, but got pulled back. Like with our Nans Peters bet in the Tour last year, it's worth following the guys who tried to get in breaks and failed, they try again as soon as they can.
With Ciccone doing so well in GC I can't see Brambilla being let go, I was thinking the same for Guerreiro and Carthy, but he tried several times to get in the break two days ago, so it looks like he has been given the freedom to go and try to get in breaks. And if he wants the KOM jersey he needs to start taking some points soon, and this finish will suit him.
Luis Leon Sanchez tried on Thursday but was in the doomed break, he could try again, he seems to have good legs at the moment. This final climb is much more his sort of finish though I think, he might steal a march on some of his break rivals before it and could go close at 40/1 (scratch that price, as I wrote this he went from 40s to 33s to 18s). He is still available at 33/1 on Betfair though if you use that, that's worth taking.
I see Bettiol is being touted as a likely break candidate tomorrow, I can't see it, I think he'll wait for the Montalcino stage and gravel roads in his home area of Toscana. Especially as he's just 12/1.
Alessandro de Marchi could go again, but he'll be pretty exhausted I think after the crazy week he's had, let's let him rest a little more before he goes again. Also Mader could go again, especially if he fancies a run for the KOM jersey, a competition he now leads, but he looked pretty dead to me at the end of the stage on Thursday, he'll need Mohoric with him again I think (he could also have a chance though, especially with the descent down to the final climb).
Grosschartner hasn't been able to get out and do something yet, I haven't even seen him try, so I'm leaving him again for now. Androni boys - Cepeda possibly, but he seemed to have crashed a few days ago, his body might be hurting still after that. Eduardo Sepulveda could have a chance on a finish like this, but it's been a while since he put his hands in the air, 5 years in fact at the San Luis. Bardiani - could be time to go with Battaglin, who looks to be going well, and Bardiani may get a few guys in the break.
Movistar are sure to have someone up there, let's go for Einer Rubio, he was riding well in Asturias and if it comes to a sprint from a small group he hasn't a bad kick. Nelson Oliveira will like this stage too, it's very similar to the stage in the Vuelta he won in 2015, but that is the last time he's won a race. One for the 'place' bet with Unibet maybe when they finally open.
Some of the strong sprinter types *could* make it tomorrow too to the finish, and if a small group comes to the finish on that final climb, as it's not the most difficult, it could come down to who has the best kick. I see Sagan is being backed, but I'd rather be on Vendrame at the same price (66/1), he finished 5th on the stage to Sestriere last year don't forget, behind TGH, Hindley, Dennis and Almeida.
Hoping for a huge break, hopefully some of these guys get in it and we have shot at some top 3 or better at some decent prices. As for the GC battle, the final hill isn't very hard, I wouldn't be surprised if there's a bit of a stalemate behind, but I'd also not be surprised if Ganna and Ineos try to rip the race to pieces again to try to set up Bernal. Martin and Evenepoel probably won't be far behind him, Carthy, Yates, Ciccone too.
UPDATE 11AM - I was going to be holding back on Bouwan as I was told a week ago he was not going to try until after stage 11 to go in breaks, but I've been told this morning that he plans to go in the break today, I guess plans have changed with Dylan and George. Have to cover him at 40s.
Recommendations:
0.25pts e/w on Michael Storer at 125/1 with 365
0.25pts e/w on Remy Rochas at 66/1 with 365
0.25pts e/w on Rudy Molard at 100/1 with Betway
0.75pts win on Luis Leon Sanchez at 18/1 with Betway/365 (33/1 with Betfair)
0.75pts win on Harm Vanhoucke at 40/1 with various
0.5pts win on Andrea Vendrame at 66/1
0.25pt e/w on Enrico Battaglin at 150/1
0.25pts e/w on Einer Rubio at 150/1
O.5pts e/w on Koun Bouwman at 40/1 with various.
Matchbets
None interest me