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Published on Thursday, 30 June 2022 20:23

TDF 2022 Stage 1

Copenhagen ITT

July 1, 13kms

The Grand Depart of the 2022 Tour de France sees the riders tackle a fast and furious individual time trial in the Danish capital Copenhagen. Here's a quick and dirty preview of the first stage.. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about the route, dead flat, but with lots of twists and turns. Plenty previews and websites out there with images, maps, profiles etc, https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2022/stage-1/today/profiles gives you all you need probably. 

Contenders and Favourites

A quick run through the main contenders in descending price order:

Filippo Ganna - 11/8 best price. Ganna is rightly the strong fav for this one, it's 50/50 according to the price whether he wins or loses, and I actually think it's probably closer to 60/40 if not 70/30. Italian champion this year again and winner of 5 of the 6 TTs he's started this year, only losing out in the UAE on the short 9km course to Bissegger.

He won the Italian TT by 37" from Cattaneo and 50" from Affini, quite the demolition job over 35kms. This is just 13kms long though and is bordering on the edge of being 'too short' for his diesel engine, but he has won over 14kms at Tirreno, beating Evenepoel, Pogacar and Asgreen and won the TTs at Bessege and Provence over 10.6km and 7.1kms respectively. He is fearless when it comes to attacking corners and accelerating hard out of bends and his power will be more than anyone else over the long straight stretches. The 11/8 boost price with Bet365 has to be taken. 

Stefan Bisegger - 7/2 general. Bisegger has beaten Ganna this year as I mentioned above and has become one of the best TT'ers in the world in the last 2 years. Feted for his abnormally low CDA, he backs up his aerodynamicism with serious power too. That TT he won in the UAE was done at an average speed of 55.575kmph, an unbelieveable pace, considering it probably took him about 5% of the course to get up to that sort of speed off the start ramp.

He didn't start the Swiss TT champs though after his issues at the TDS, and his only other TT this year saw him finish only 8th in that lump TT over 13kms at Paris Nice, with even Pierre Latour finishing in front of him, that doesn't instill one with confidence he can beat Ganna here. 

Wout Van Aert - 7/2 general. Van Aert can do everything, and we will probably see him do everything during the next 21 stages.. but can he win this TT? It will be hard to see him go faster than Ganna on a flat course like this, especially if the stories about him injuring his knee are to be believed. Winner of that TT in Paris Nice and just 2" behind Ganna in the Dauphiné, his TT credentials look pretty good this year. 2nd again to Ganna at the World's last year, he was just 6" behind him, a superb performance given the next rider, Evenepoel was 38" after him.

His results are peppered with wins and top 5s over all sorts of courses and distances and he looks nailed on for another top 3 placing here.. but I've had it confirmed to me that the knee injury was indeed real and not just a story, so I'm reluctant to get involved with him too much for now. 

Mathieu Van Der Poel and Stefan Kung - both around 14/1. Will give it a real go, but I can't see either of them winning this. Kung should have the beating of MVDP, who might well have his eye on the stages to come instead. Kung is 8/11 to MVDP evens to win that match bet, and I think Kung is worth a bet in that at that price. 

Mads Pedersen (20/1) will be trying his heart out in his home country, but it will take an extraordinary performance for him to top 3, let alone win it.. He'll do well to stay close enough to try to give it a go for the yellow jersey in the coming days, but he's just not good enough. Geraint Thomas could be a dark horse for the podium at 25/1 if Wout or Bisegger have an off day, but he should be around 5th or 6th. Kasper Asgreen should be well fired up as well though to get a good result, and he might be a little bit of value at 2.1 to finish in the top 10. 

And that's it, no one else is going to get close, it's Ganna's to lose, with Wout probably the biggest danger, depending on his knee. 

Recommendations

3pts win on Ganna at 11/8 (boost price) with Bet365 - you'll need 2.5 almost on Betfair to get the same price after commission, and that's not likely to happen as the market is currently 2.34-2.36

2pts on Kung to beat MVDP at 8/11 

2pts on Asgreen to finish in the top 10 at 2.1 with various