Details

Published on Friday, 08 July 2016 00:50

TDF Stage 8

Pau to Bagnères-de-Luchon  

Saturday 9th July, 184kms

This is going to be a Saturday afternoon treat for viewers, not so much for the riders, with one of the hardest stages of the race. At 184kms long and with four big climbs to get over this will be one of the first chances to see which teams and riders are truly in with a chance of winning this race.

So a pretty stunning result today then, Stevo Cummings rewarding his supporters who had backed him down to what I still maintain was a ridiculous 12/1 price. Should've known to pay attention when the money is down on a scouser though! We were unlucky/lucky with Nibali though, he got in the break, he helped split the break, but the former TDF and Giro winner was left behind by 35-year old Cummings. Luckily there were only four of them left at the front so he held on for fourth place to land the 33/1 each way and a small profit on the win bets. 

Rui Costa got in the early break that had 40" at one point, good to see he gave it a go anyway. The matchbets were a mixed bag, Cummings obviously blew the Gallopin one, I think Kelderman was unlucky to lose to Mollema, I think the inflatable collapsing cost us that one as I'm sure Kelderman would have been in pursuit of Yates to stop him gaining time. 3/6 of the matchbets landed to net us a small profit overall of just over a point...

Thibaut Pinot had a bad day, losing 3 minutes to the favourites, cracking with quite a way still to go on the Aspen - he said afterwards that he just didn't have the legs and that his objective for the year is ruined.. Alberto Contador was isolated for a while but managed to hang in there and not lose time. Warren Barguil attacked very early on the climb and ended up struggling out the back, he looks like he finished on the same time as the leaders but it may be that he caught back on when the Flamme rouge came down.. It might be adjusted later. Julian Alaphilippe tried an attack but was reeled in, as did Dan Martin at the top of the Aspin, but all in all, the GC men had a day off.

The Flamme Rouge inflatible collapsing was a bizarre incident, but imagine what it would have been like if they were sprinting for the stage win? It would have been chaos. As it was, Adam Yates was the biggest loser, he had '5-7 seconds' on the chasers, or more importantly, that lead over Alaphilippe meaning he was on the verge of taking the White Jersey off his shoulders. But as it turned out, even though Alaphilippe took the jersey on the podium, the commisaires gave the time gap to Yates at the point where the incident happened so Yates will start in white tomorrow.  

What a day for Greg Van Avermaet again though, getting in the break of the day in the yellow jersey and holding on for a fabulous 5th place, extending his lead to over six and a half minutes. It's unlikely he'll hold on to it tomorrow, but you'd never know, he might go on the attack again and get a head start coming to the last climb which might see him hang on to it by a few minutes, especially if the break is taking the stage win.

On to stage 8 then and the great classic of the Pyrenees has been reconsidered for this 2016 edition of the Tour. After the Col du Tourmalet, the race will, for the first time, head up the Hourquette d'Ancizan from a different side before taking on the Col de Val-Louron-Azet and Peyresourde.

In 1910, Luchon entered history by welcoming the finish and then the start of the first two mountain stages of the Tour de France, both claimed by Octave Lapize. For that reason, the city deserves the nickname of Queen of the Pyrenees.

A hundred years later, in 2010, a similar program was awaiting the riders of the Tour. Thomas Voeckler triumphed and he won again in 2012. A candidate for a third success in 2014, the Frenchman was finally beaten to the line by Australian Michael Rogers (right).

A bit like yesterday's stage, we are still going to be waiting for the first real summit finish, as this stage also finishes after a downhill section, with a flat run for more than 2.5kms before they reach the line. It is a similar sort of predicament we have then to stage 7 in that an early break, a late break on the last climb, a break on the descent, or a reduced GC sprint could decide the stage.

All are possibilities and it makes our job harder trying to read the desires of the GC teams as to whether they want to go for it on the Peyresourde or hold back for Sunday.  The four climbs are squashed in to 100kms though, so it could make for explosive racing over those four climbs, that is, if the likes of Movistar and Astana want to make it explosive. It's a big day for the KOM jersey though, we could someone in the break rack up a lot of points and hold on to the jersey for quite a while as we transition to the Alps. 

The Route

The city of Pau has been a host town for the Tour de France no fewer than sixty seven occassions, a number only surpassed by Paris and Bordeaux. A long drag south for 67kms takes them through Lourdes and to the foot of the first climb of the day, and what a beast it is, with the legendary Tourmalet. A Haute Category climb, 19kms at  7.4% average, It takes them up to 2,115m, the highest point in this year's Tour, for which the first rider over the top wins the Souvenir Jacques Goddet prize. It's a pretty steady 7-8% for most of the way up, but it gets steeper in the last 3kms, which average over 9%. 

The descent of the Tourmalet is equally challenging, being 17kms at a similar average gradient, and at the bottom they get straight on to the Hourquette d'Ancizan, a Cat 2 climb which is 8.2kms at 4.9%. Again a quick descent takes them straight on to the next climb, the Col de Val Louron-Azet, a Cat 1 climb of 10.7kms which averages 6.8%. The descent off the Val Louron-Azet is quite narrow and dangerous, and with over 150kms in their legs by now, tired riders will need to be on their guard. 

With 25kms to go they start the final challenge of the day, the Col de Peyresourde, another legendary climb in the Tour de France. 7.1kms long at an average of 7.8%, it's a very steady climb with the last 1100m averaging 8.6%, making it a particularly hard finish to the climb. From the top, there's only 15.5kms to go,  12.5kms of which are a tricky, twisty descent.

From the bottom of the descent there's only 2.5kms of flat roads to the finish, a lone rider doesn't have very far to hang on to take the stage victory. It may not be a day that you will win the TDF, but it certainly could be a day you could lose it as the old cycling cliché goes, so the GC men will have to be on their guard all day long. 

One thing to keep in mind though is that this stage is followed by a far harder stage with a summit finish in to Andorra, so it may well be that the GC favourites keep their powder dry for Sunday's stage. The weather is going to be good but they will have a slight side/headwind over the closing kilometres.

Contenders and Favourites

This is quite similar to stage 19 of the Tour last year, when Vincenzo Nibali attacked from a long way out and soloed to a fantastic stage victory. It was redemption for Nibali after a pretty disappointing Tour to say the least. He put in a massive effort today to make up for his bad start as I hoped he might, he just wasn't good enough for the win, but landed us a place. That day, last year though, Froome was cracking in the lead group, but Nairo seemed reluctant to attack him, waiting and waiting when clearly going well, until finally attacking. In 5kms he took a minute out of Nibali's lead, but he couldn't catch him. Quintana took 30" out of Froome.

That stage was different to this one though in other circumstances - it was the second last mountain stage, this is the first really big mountain stage with multiple big climbs. Nibali had nothing to lose, and Nairo had everything to gain. But left it too late.. This year, it's only at the end of the first week, so we might not see Nairo attacking so early, but you'd never know. Everyone says that he will come good in the third week, when Froome will start to tire, but why not mix it up a bit and surprise them? If he can gain some time, even if it's only 30", it will be a big pyschological boost for him going in to the 2nd week. 

It's likely we will see a break have a big chance on a stage like this again though, the parcours is perfect for breakaway riders - a flattish opening 50kms or so to get a big time gap going when the peloton decides to let them go (but it could be a big battle for 50kms if lots of guys want in...) and then four tough climbs one after another in 100kms. Also, the GC teams don't seem to care too much at all about stage wins, something that was hugely annoying in recent tours, it's all about the GC.. It makes backing the GC men a real lottery as you just don't know whether they let a break have a stage or not. 

The KOM hopefuls will be in the break, there are lots of points on offer today, someone could take a big lead in to week two, a lead that they could continue to build on for the rest of the race with attacks in breaks. Guys like Thomas de Gendt - he's in the jersey, he likes a break, he could go and try to hang in there as long as possible over the first two or three climbs, maybe longer. Van Avermaet would pick up more points if he gets in the break but it's not going to be something he's able to win, and he also hinted today that he might start saving energy now for later when it's needed again. 

Daniel Navarro could try again as he picked up 8pts today, but that was a hard day for him today and he might be tired. Other guys like Daniel Teklehaimanot might try, but he has been pretty poor so far in the race, is over 49' down already. But of the 17 guys who have scored points already in the KOM comp, you couldn't really say any of them are pure climbers, or are likely to be targeting the jersey. 

Others for the break tomorrow? This is a profile that suits Ruben Plaza I think, it's a little bit like the stage in the Vuelta last year which he won, that was over 175kms with four Cat 1 climbs and a downhill finish, he landed the money for us that day at 66/1. When Cummings was interviewed before today's stage he picked out guys he thought might go in the break and he mentioned 'the tall one from Orica-BikeExchange' referring to Plaza. Orica are stage hunting now, came close with Impey today, and when Paddy Power opened they had Plaza at 66/1, which I took, as he was only 33/1 with Bet365. And he is being backed - he's in to 28/1 with Bet365 now and that's still worth taking, he's only 20/1 with Corals and I wouldn't go lower than that really. 

Rui Costa tried today, but despite getting about 45" at one point, they were reeled in - he clearly has an escape in mind and might try again. The problem is that the bookies are on to it too and he's pretty short at just 14/1 with Ladbrokes, but he is just 10/1 with others! He's worth a win-only bet at that price, he'll hopefully either come home alone or win a reduced sprint. 

Luis Leon Sanchez also attacked today and was reeled in, he might try again at a big looking 125/1, and other guys like Brice Feillu, Georg Preidler and maybe even Frank Schleck, an old friend from the Vuelta last year too when he won stage 16 for us at something like 50/1 (we actually landed the 1-2 that day with Torres finshing 2nd). That stage was 185kms, the same as this one, maybe he will give it a go tomorrow at a big price of 150/1. 

**One last one that I almost forgot, Stef Clement - I gave him a go today, he missed the break again, but not from lack of trying apparently.. He tweeted this after the stage: "Spent 3h feeling bad for not being in the break again, before I could enjoy 1h of good legs uphill @LeTour Forgive weakness, enjoy strength."  And then after he tweeted this:

At 125/1 I have to have a small bet on him, I'll go nuts if he gets in the break after backing him today, he sounds like he's up for another go.

I don't have much faith in the GC men to make a race of this tomorrow and so am reluctant to back any of them, they might be fighting for 5th or 6th place. The one rider I want to keep in the book though is Romain Bardet, he has looked frisky and keen and if there is a chance to attack over the top of the Peyresourde and on the descent to the finish, he might take it. (forgot to add the bet earlier, 20/1)

Overall though, it's not a day to get stuck in big at all, I think Sunday's stage to Andorra is going to be far more exciting and more likely to see a GC battle. It's almost a 'no-bet' day, but I'm going to scatter a few bets around on breakaway guys, it might work like today. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 28/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Rui Costa at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts each-way on Frank Schleck at 150/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.2pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 125/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Romaine Bardet at 20/1 with Skybet

0.25pts each-way on Stef Clement at 150/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

Matchbets

Not a lot appeal as the GC men might come in together, but one that interests me is Kelderman over Mollema at odds-against. I think this was unlucky to lose today as Kelderman would have been sprinting to close down Yates, Mollema would probably not have been sprinting as much. It could be the same tomorrow as the white jersey comp is so close. 2pts at 6/5 with Bet365

Bardet to beat Rolland and Meintjes to beat Frank - 2pts at 11/10 on the double with Bet365

Costa to beat Navarro - Costa might get in the break, and if not, Navarro had a hard day today. 3pts at 4/6 with Paddy Power