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Published on Thursday, 30 July 2015 18:04

Clasica San Sebastian  2015

San Sebastian, Spain

Sat 1st August, 219.2kms

Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa as it's known to the locals takes place on Saturday the 1st August, less than one week since the end of the Tour de France. It is the 35th running of the race, so it's not exactly the oldest classic in the world, but has built a reputation as a tough and challenging race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs.

There is an interesting mix of riders that take to the start line of the Klasikoa - the guys who are in flying form after the Tour de France and are looking at some redemption having maybe missed out on their chance for glory in the Tour. You also have the guys who are totally shattered after the Tour, but have had this on their schedule and need to stick to it. And then you have the guys who weren't selected for the Tour at all for whatever reason, who are desperate to try to take advantage of strong and fresh legs, having possibly trained specifically for this in the last few weeks. As a result, it's an incredible lineup this year, with five out of the top ten in the Tour taking to the startline. 

Alejandro Valverde came out of a disappointing Tour last year to win this race in superb fashion with a late attack on the Tontorro, he was the 5/1 3rd favourite behind Sagan and Gilbert who were around 9/2. It was a fantastic finish to the race, the climb up the Tontorro is steep, narrow, dark and packed with wildly excited fans screaming on their Spanish heros. It's was one of my favourite finishes to a race last year, the last 10kms were pretty exciting. Kolbnev attacked, teeing it up for a subsequent attack by Rodriguez, Nieve also went really well but they both faded as Rodriguez and Valverde came surging past. On the descent, which is equally as challenging as the ascent, Valverde showed his skills to dispose of Rodriguez and the rest, while an unfortunate Adam Yates took a bend too wide and smashed in to the footpath breaking his forks. Valverde soloed to a great win and behind Bauke Mollema was too strong in the sprint for Rodriguez and Nieve. (see below)

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year, like last, the final ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is further out than it used to be in the past, they crest it with nearly 54kms still to go.

Bauke Mollema was 2nd last year, Purito Rodriguez 3rd, they're back this year to try to better those results, but there's no sign of Mikel Nieve, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth since the 'prestigious' Tour of Slovenia in mid June. He must have pissed off someone in Sky, or he is having some passport issues or something.. Tony Gallopin was a surprise winner in 2013, from Valverde, Kreuziger and Nieve, 'surprise winner' isn't a tag we can use this year if he wins again, such has been his stellar rise in the last two years. Simon Gerrans was 2nd here in 2012, behind Luis Leon Sanchez, on what was the 'easier' finish without the Tontorro, but he of course is in rehabilitation again following his crash in the TDF. Luis Leon is a former winner that has a chance again, he comes here with a formidable looking Astana squad that includes Landa, Fuglsang, Taaramae and Scarponi.

The Route

It's a similar sort of affair to previous years, after starting in Donostia (the Basque name for San Sebastian), they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they start on the Alto de Itruburu after about 45kms. A Cat 1 climb of 3.5kms, averaging a very steady 5%, it may cause a little thinning out, but you would think all the main protagonists should have no problem with it. As they return back towards San Sebastian they start on the closing loop which is where the main action of the day will be.

With 120kms gone they hit the old favourite of the race, the Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.6%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 2 Alto de Arkale. This is much shorter but steeper so there may be some break attempts go again here. If last year is anything to go by, at this point there will be groups all over road attacking, chasing, counter-attacking, hanging on etc!

Once over the Arkale it's back to the foot of the Jaizkibel for another go at it, followed again by the Arkale. At this point though the route take in what was a new climb last year, the Bordako Tontorra, a nasty, short, sharp pinch with just over 7kms to go. It's less than 3kms, but averages nearly 10% and hits 20%+ on 3 different parts of the climb. This was the decider in the race last year, when only the very strongest pucheurs/climbers were able to pull away from the rest on the way up and charged downhill to the finish, there wasn't anyone able to come back as the last 6kms are just so fast, they are all going flat out. The last 4kms are flat though, so if a small group does come off the climb together, it will probably end in a very small bunch sprint. More likely though is it will be won by a solo rider or 2 or 3 at most. 

This final climb that they have added to showcase the town of San Sebastian a bit more means that the Jaizkibel climb isn't as much of a race decider as it used to be, it's too far out now. Instead, teams will ride a fast tempo to strip the peloton down ahead of the big battles on the narrow roads later on. That's not to say we won't see early attacks go and try to stay away, but it does mean that when the teams start to really crank it up on the ascents of the Jaizkibel the gaps will start to tumble.

Contenders and Favourites

You have to start with the reigning champ, Alejandro Valverde, he just so happens to be the short priced favourite at 11/4 also for the race. He was excellent last year in taking this race for a second time, and that was after coming out of a poor performance in the Tour (for him) when he finished nearly 10 minutes down on Nibali in 4th place, after totally blowing the final TT. This year, he looks to be in far better shape, he was instrumental in helping Quintana wear down Sky and lift both Nairo in to 2nd and himself in to 3rd, finally taking a podium spot in the Tour. There were some days he looked like he was starting to tire, but the last mountain stage to Alpe d'Huez showed he still had some strength left as he attacked several times and helped pace Nairo as they tried to escape Sky's clutches.

He came across to Rodriguez very quickly last year and as they crested the top he found himself in a small group with Purito, Yates, Nieve and Mollema and it looked like it would be between the five of them. Valverde, as the best sprinter of the group would have been attacked on all sides over the last 5kms and would have had to chase everything, so instead he caught them all by surprise and attacked himself instead. He got his gap, descended like a rocket on rails and held his advantage to the line. 

He's got a seriously strong team here with him, probably the strongest in the race, with Nairo Quintana, JJ Rojas, Benat Intxausti and Gorka Izagirre among a power-packed squad. Given Nairo's climbing form on the Alpe, few might be able to stick on his wheel if he goes full gas up the Tontorro, the question is, will he want to from a view point of trying to win for himself, or will he try to blow things apart for Valverde to finish it off? It could be payback time from Nairo to Piti after the work he did for him in the Tour. If a small group comes to the finish, Valverde will be one of the favourites from a sprint, but if he's not up to it, they have another possible candidate in JJ Rojas. Intxausti and Izagirre are two guys who could try for longer-range attacks, or do a Kolobnev like last year, attacking early on the final climb, for Valverde to bridge up to later in the climb.

He has some serious competition from other TDF competitors, one of which was the man who finished 5th the year, Alberto Contador. Contador was one I was happy to stay away from in the Tour, I feared he would be found out, and it was proved right. He never looked at the races for the whole of the Tour and he was one of the first to suffer almost every single day when the pace really kicked up. Contador has only ever done this race twice, and was pretty average both times to say the least, finishing 47th in 2013 and 28th in 2008. I can't see him winning, or even coming close to winning again this year, he just doesn't have the punch any more to stay with the really fast guys on a finishing climb like this and if he does manage to get back on on the descent, he's not going to win a sprint. EDIT: Alberto is no longer starting the Clasica, he has not recovered from a fever and has decided to retire for the season.. 

Rafal Majka and Romain Kreuziger are two strong team-mates, but although Kreuziger has managed to win this in 2009 and finish 3rd in 2013, it was over the 'old' course and not with this finish. I think he will struggle to repeat a podium placing. Rafal Majka had a mixed Tour, I'd have to say mostly poor and disappointing, but he did snag a stage win. He didn't look in great shape to me overall though, and was heavily burdened with Contador duties. Maybe he'll be let off the leash here now with Contador out and could be a dark horse. 

Tony Gallopin won this with an audacious attack in 2013, quite a shock at the time, but given how he has progressed in the last two years he has shown it was no flash in the pan. That year he soloed to victory by 28" from Valverde, a pretty impressive result. He held a good chance of featuring in this race, but unfortunately he will not be here after all due to a knee injury.

Joaquim Rodriguez was very hit and miss in the Tour, he won two stages brilliantly but then seemed to fade right out of it on other stages. He was disappointing in the Alps, he looked like he might be going for the KOM jersey, but faded badly in some stages, not being involved in the final climbs where the big points were on offer. He did better on Alpe dHuez, but I'm not sure he's in the best of form. I think his two stages, while impressive, were almost fortuitious and I'm not sure he has the sustained power any more needed for the explosive attacks up the final climb. He did manage a big attack with Valverde last year, but was too exhausted at the top to be able to react to Valverde when he attacked on the downhill. I'm tempted to put a big red line through him based on form, but he has surprised in the past, and I felt similar about Valverde last year and he only went and won! Dani Moreno is here too for them but he has been a real diappointment to me this year. Maybe he is timing his form for the Vuelta or something but he has done nothing for me this year to suggest he will pull a big ride out of the bag on Saturday.  

Bauke Mollema had a good Tour and really put himself through the ringer on some stages when he was not at 100%, he had the likes of Bob Jungels to thank for helping him finish in 7th place in the Tour. There were plenty of solid top 20 preformances in the Tour, but he never looked like coming close to winning a stage really. The Tour was a measured effort with the aim of a top 10 placing though, this is a different matter and he seems to go well here, so should be one of the front runners again on Saturday. 2nd, 9th, 5th in the three last years, he has finished in the top 10 every time he has entered it. He doesn't look so explosive, but on a short, intense effort like this he can be very strong. He also has a good sprint on him if he does come to the finish in a leading group. He is backed up by Julian Arredondo, who was one of the biggest disappointments of the Tour for me. If he wins I'm giving up betting for the rest of the year.. Mollema has said this week he loves this race and he has come out of the Tour very well, he was very pleased with his last two mountain stages. 

BMC come here with a very strong squad, with serious chances of taking home a victory. Hard to tell who will be the protected rider, if they decide to go with one, as Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert, Damiano Caruso and Samuel Sanchez are all capable of a big showing here. Greg Van Avermaet had an excellent Tour, culminating in his 20/1 stage victory in Rodez. He goes well in San Sebastian, with an 8th place last year, an 11th place in 2010 and a 2nd place in 2011. He was in great form in the Tour, he was sitting in a very impressive 6th place in the GC when he pulled out to go attend the birth of his baby. It has given him a nice rest (if he got any rest with a new baby!) for the last two weeks, avoiding the exhausting Alpine stages, and he could come here fresher than a lot of the Tour guys, but still with great legs from the work put in before he left. That is, unless he has been awake all night with a crying baby and neglecting his training!

There is also the old 'nappy effect' that could come in to play here too, when sportsmen seem to overperform after the birth of a child, it can inspire them to push harder than ever. We might have seen signs of that even before he left as his effort up the hill to Rodez to hold off Sagan was simply sensational. I think he has a big chance of a big showing again on Saturday, he should be right at the front as they start attacking the final climb and can win a sprint against most guys. If he is not 100%, then Gilbert has a pretty decent domestique to work for him!

Philippe Gilbert is going really well at the moment after skipping out the Tour de France, winning the Grand Prix Cerami, his first race back since abandoning the Tour de Suisse with a fractured leg. He was delighted with how he felt and said he is in great shape. And he followed up on his words with another win in Stage 3 of the Tour de Wallonie, and a 2nd place in the final stage today on the uphill finish on the Mur de Thuin. Winner of this race in 2011, he is suited to the punchy, sharp climbs, and we'll soon see just how good his form is in a far higher grade than the Tour de Wallonie. And then there's Sammy Sanchez and Damiano Caruso who could all have a go inside the last 15kms. Gilbert and Van Avermaet probably their best chance of success though and it's hard to split them, but GVA is 33/1 and Gilbert is 14/1, so he looks the better value.

Romain Bardet was 18th last year, coming home in a group of 10 43" behind Valverde. He was 20th the year before and 33rd in 2012, he just seems to not be 100% suited to the finish - he is there or thereabouts in the leadup to the finish but can't go with the race winning moves. He will need to be at his very best to go with the best guys on the final climb here but we know now after his recent wins in the Dauphiné and the Tour that he is an excellent descender. I think it will take an exceptional ride to be able to get away and stay away from this lineup, and he won't win a sprint if it comes to it.

Astana come here with a decent squad also, with former winner Luis Leon Sanchez, Jacob Fuglsang, Mikal Landa and Rein Taaramae their main hopes. LL Sanchez has lost a lot of his spark these days and was just a workhorse during the Giro, Landa had an exceptional Giro and went well here two years ago, when he finished 6th, attacking in pursuit of the Valverde group (while riding for Euskatel) but strangely he hasn't raced since the end of the Giro, that will be over two months, a very long time to be out of action. Based on his past showing here and his impressive Giro, he has to be considered as a possible protagonist here. Fuglsang could go for a long range effort as could Taaramae, but it's hard to see them winning it any other way, I think Fuglsang looked to be tiring towards the end of the TDF. 

Cannondale-Garmin also bring a squad packed with quality and it will be interesting to see if Dan Martin has recovered from his illness at the TDF. He seemed to have good legs, and should have won a stage, if not two, but got them wrong. He will need to be in the right place at the right time when the move goes on Saturday on the final climb, something you can't really trust him with these days. Ryder Hesjedal, as usual, got better as the Tour went on, with his superb 3rd place on Alpe d'Huez the highlight of his three weeks. I don't think he'll be a player here though. Tom-Jelte Slagter missed out on the Tour and will be desperate to try to make a point, he was right up there with Rodriguez last year as the moves started going on the Tontorro, he just couldn't go with them. He was sent to the Tour of Austria where he was pretty average, and he has been pretty average for the rest of the season too, a 7th in a stage of the Giro his best result, which is a pretty poor return for the season. Andrew Talansky is here too, but he won't be winning, he's a slow grinder rather than an explosive puncheur which is what you need here. 

Sky's squad is pretty light, although Nico Roche has done well here in the past, he has finished no lower than 22nd in the five times he has ridden, including and 8th and a 5th two years ago. He worked really hard for Froome in the Tour, but he was more of the diesel variety than a sprightly climbing type. Sky have said they told him not to lose weight, to save his power, something that Chris Froome doesn't seem to have to worry about. He is coming in to his time of year in August/September though, but I still can't see him being able to live with the really fast guys when they take off. Seb Henao might be able to though, but like Landa, he hasn't been seen since the Giro, where he performance was average to say the least. 

Rigoberto Uran, Zdenek Stybar and Julian Alaphilippe represent Etixx-Quicktep and I'd think Stybar and Alaphilippe could be right in the mix in the last 15kms. Stybar took his stage very well in the Tour, attacking away from a pretty decent bunch, including Sagan. This is a very different sort of finish though and he might find it a bit hard for him. Julian Alaphilippe has a good chance based on his year to date, he has been consistently scoring great results for months now, including 5th place in the French Nationals a month ago, his last competitive race, but he also won a stage in the Tour of California, 2nd and 3rd in stages of the Tour de Romandie and 2nd in both the Fleche-Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He is a decent climber and a good finisher, if he can go with the leaders on the last climb, or even stay within 10 seconds or so, he might be able to go to the finish with them, where he'd have a good chance of a podium.

And then there are some outsiders like Alexis Vuillermoz who scored an excellent 33/1 win for us in the Tour, he might find the final climb a little too long, he's better over something a little shorter. Thibaut Pinot is also here, not long after his fantastic win on Alpe d'Huez, but I think he probably hasn't come down off his cloud yet and I don't think this is a race for him either. Rui Costa probably isn't back to 100% after his injuries in the massive smash on stage 3. The two Yates brothers represent OGE and Adam has some unfinished business after his accident last year with less than 5km to go. Simon might hold the better chance though, I'm sure he'll have his supporters at 33/1.

This is a wickedly hard race to predict - Valverde is a strong favourite, and although he is very short at 11/4, he has to be backed as a saver, as he is sure to be involved in the finish. Joaquim Rodriguez doesn't appeal to me at all at 7/1 and Philippe Gilbert has a great chance of a big result, that is, if he can stay with the fast guys all the way up the Tontorro. His team-mate Van Avermaet could continue his excellent year though by giving a nice present to his new born baby Fleur. Julian Alaphilippe could go well for Etixx, as could Jelle Vanendert, Landa, Nico Roche and Bauke Mollema, others with form in this race. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 33/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Julian Alaphilippe at 14/1 with Corals

0.3pts each-way on Mikel Landa at 40/1 each-way with Paddy Power

2pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 11/4 with Ladbrokes 

Matchbets:

Landa to beat Moreno - 2pts at 4/6 with PP 

Bardet to beat Costa - 3pts at 4/6 with PP 

Nordhaug to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365