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Published on Monday, 18 August 2014 23:30

Vuelta a España St. 2

Algeciras to San Fernando 

Sunday August 24th, 174.4kms 

 Stage 2 sees the riders hit a Cat 3 climb inside the first 6kms, but after that it is almost entirely flat for the rest of the day and should be a stage for the sprinters to do battle, one of only five potential stages for the fast men so the pressure will be on their teams to drag back the break of the day before the finish. 

What an incredible start to the race in Stage 1 with the top three favourites in the betting all finishing outside the top 3. A real shock that none of them could finish in the top 3 at odds of 1/5 (Trek), 4/11 (OPQS) and 4/6 (BMC). Instead we had one of my selections at 10/1 coming home in first place, and Movistar were 7/4 to finish in the top 3! 

The shock of the day though was Cannondale who almost pulled off a massive result, leading right until the very last team crossed the line - they were 25/1 to finish in the top 3!! Rounding out the top 3 were Orica Green-Edge who were 7/1 to finish in the top 3 and finished in the same time (0.01 of a second behind Cannondale).

Sorry if some of you didn't see my matchbets, I added them about 25 minutes before the TT started but it looks like it didn't publish. One was a winner (Trek to beat Movistar at 4/6), but the treble was a loser. So all in all, not a bad start to the Vuelta, +4.58pts, with our headline selection Quintana also getting a fantastic head start on some of his rivals, as much as 27" on Chris Froome who had a disappointing ride with Sky. Contador's Tinkoff-Saxo looked ok, he only lost 19" to Quintana. Joaquim Rodriguez lost 38" and Dan Martin lost 41", quite a lot to lose on the very first day - but hey, at least we didn't have any first day casualties like at the Giro and the Tour. 

I was wondering why there was a gamble on OPQS today, it didn't make sense to me, backed in from 4.8 to 3.4, but I realised soon after it was because the ENTIRE Trek Factory Racing team came down in a TT warmup today, and it must have affected them a little today because 4th was a very disappointing result for them. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about this stage in terms of any vertical challenges, the run along the coast is almost entirely flat bar a 6km climb they get over inside the first 6kms as they leave Algeciras. They run up along the coast and go past the finishing town of San Fernando as they head north and out to a sprint point at Puerto Real which comes after 132.5kms.

They head further north out to El Puerto de Sta Maria and do a little loop around the town before heading back past the stunning castle at Cádiz. They dart across the spit that joins Cadiz to San Fernando for the run in to the finish. There are plenty of nice straight sections up until they reach the last 2kms where they face a sharp right, sharp left and two more rights before hitting the finishing straight which is a nice wide stretch of road, perfect for a big sprint (see tab 'Last Kms')  

Contenders and Favourites

I don't think there is much chance of it being anything other than a sprint tomorrow. Ordinarily you'd think this would be a straight-forward sprint win for Nacer Bouhanni, the fastest flat course, straight line sprinter in the race. I say ordinarily as we all know by now how chaotic and dangerous the opening sprints of any Grand Tours are, especially when you have some tricky bends inside the last few kilometres. One very important factor to bear in mind is the course once they head back out to the coast around Cadiz on the run in to the finish. There could well be lots of wind sweeping in from the sea and we could see splits and crashes.

As they head under the kite they meet a sharp right, sharp left and two more 90º turns inside the last kilometre. The important thing though is that the last 400m or so is a fast, straight, slightly downhill run to the line so we should see a really fast sprint, one where you can start the sprint almost as soon as taking the final right hand bend if you're strong enough. 

I backed Nacer Bouhanni yesterday with Paddy Power at 7/4 as soon as I saw them come out with the prices. It was short, but I just felt that he was probably not going to get much bigger than that. He is 6/4 generally now, but PP are still 7/4... I think he is the fastest man in this race by a long way and should easily out-sprint all of these guys. FDJ should be able to deliver him to the kite in the right position and he should surf the wheels for the next 500m until the sprint kicks off out of the last bend. Even if he is 6 or 8 wheels back he should be capable of passing them all in 400m. 

John Degenkolb is probably his biggest danger, and indeed is the 9/2 favourite with PP, 7/2 generally. I think Degenkolb will have a good Vuelta, but think that this flat out, technical sprint is not one for him and he will have his sights set on stage 3 with the uphill finish a bit more to his liking. He may well use tomorrow as a prep and give it a good go, but I can't see him outsprinting Bouhanni on a finish like this. 

Guardini was sprinting well in Poland, taking a stage, but I think that was more down to luck than anything else and I took him on later in the race in some sprints where he completely lost his way again. I think we won't see him in the top 5 tomorrow, 5th to 15th for me at best. 

Michael Matthews could be a big danger to Bouhanni though, I think he will be very keen to get off to a good start, and as I have backed him at 50/1 for the Points jersey I'd like to see him do well tomorrow! He has come back from his crash pre-Tour de France to ride well in Poland, taking a 2nd and a 3rd and was unlucky not to win a stage as he won the 'sprint' but Vakoc had won solo ahead of them. Although he likes an uphill sprint he is getting better and better at flat sprints too and he should feature prominently tomorow. With the Orica team only finishing 6" slower than Movistar today, the time bonuses at the finish could see Matthews take the red jersey if he wins the stage, what a year that would be after wearing pink in the Giro too!

Peter Sagan I think has the upcoming tougher stages in ihs mind and the likes of Boonen, Hutarovich, Debusschere and Pelucci might just find this too fast for them. One 'outsider' if you could call him that, at a big-ish looking 22/1 is Moreno Hofland of Belkin - the Dutchman has been riding well lately, winning two stages of the Tour of Utah just last week, albeit against inferior opposition, but you can only beat who's put in front of you as the saying goes. He finished over a minute behind today in the TTT, looks like he did his bit and then rolled in at his own pace to save his legs for tomorrow. He could be a big price to finish in the top three.

I think Bouhanni has a super chance of winning tomorrow, and I'll put my dislike of him aside when there is a bet to be won! Michael Matthews and Hofland can fight it out for 2nd and 3rd. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Nacer Bouhanni at 7/4 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Michael Matthews at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Moreno Hofland at 22/1 with Paddy Power.

Match Bets 

Michael Matthews to beat Peter Sagan - 2pts at 4/5 with Paddy Power

Moreno Hofland to beat Tom Boonen - 1pt at 4/7 with Bet365

Contador to beat Aru - 2pts at 10/11 with Paddy Power (Contador tends to finish towards the front of pelotons when it's a bunch finish, Aru tended to be much farther down the bunch at the Giro..)

Hofland to beat Boonen, Matthews to beat Sagan, Bouhanni to beat Degenkolb - 1pt at 3.16/1 with Bet365

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