Details: Published on Friday, 04 July 2014 23:30

Tour de France St. 2

York to Sheffield

Sunday July 6th, 201kms

Stage 2 should be an excellent days racing - I hope to see some quality attacking action on possibly either Oughtibridge or Bradfield inside the last 25kms as I am heading up that neck of the woods for the weekend. The stage has been described in many places as being like Liege-Bastogne-Liege, let's hope for a day of classics-like racing!

In a historical context of opening stages of the Tour, this is pretty unusual, not least because it is finishing in Sheffield! There are no fewer than 9 listed climbs on the stage, but by my rough analysis of the profile there are another 9 uncategorised climbs on a very hard day in the saddle. It's a long stage too at 201kms, so the GC men need to be on their guard for this stage as anything could happen.

The day features as much climbing as a day in the Alps apparently, but these are very different climbs. There is a possibility of storms on the day so it could be wild, windswept and wonderful if things kick off early on some of the Cat 3 climbs around half way. Russell Downing trains on these roads and reckons this is going to be a seriously hard days racing for the Favourites.

If a break does go early they will be riding in to a headwind for the first 60kms and the peloton will probably just let them go. After 60kms when they start heading south the wind will now be coming at them from the side and they will need to be on their guard for splits forming on some of the narrow but exposed sections.

The Route

The stage starts to get really hard from Cragg Vale onwards. This is famous for being the longest continuos ascent in England but it only averages 3% so isn't too hard. It is very exposed at the top though so the GC favourites will need to be on their guard here too. We could well see T-S try to split things here and catch some guys out who are napping.

If echelons and splits do form there could be panic behind as the climbs come thick and fast and it will be hard to organise a chase. Ripponden Bank is up next and although it's only a mile long but you hit a steep bump right at the bottom of around 20% and it averages nearly 10%. It is just relentless from here on in and there should be splits all over the place by the time the race hits sheffield. Ainley Top is next, then one of the features of the day, Holme Moss.

holme-moss

This will really be where the big boys will split things up as it's 4.7kms at 7% average will put a lot of guys out the back. The GC men cannot afford to be caught out down the field as they could be left a long way behind come the finish if they miss the splits. As they reach the 'Strines' - that series of little sharp lumps on the run in to Sheffield we could well see some breaks for glory. Some of the final climbs on the run in have almost a standing start as they wind through small streets and could cause consternation again.

Orignally it was planned to be a flat finish in Sheffield, but Thierry Gouvenou, the TDF Route Director came to Sheffield and decided he wanted to add a sting in the tail - he added Jenkin Road.. This is a nasty finish, reminiscant of Fleche Wallone - it is an almost standing start and then it gets steeper and steeper, hitting 33% for about 200m! Will we see Fleche Wallone type guys attacking at the finish? Four out of the top 5 from Fleche Wallone are here, in Valverde, Kwiatkowski, Mollema and Slagter, with only Dan Martin missing. From the top of the Jenkin Road there's only a small bumpy descent and four flat kilometres to the finish for anyone who has got away to hold on.

Route Map

TDF-stage2-map

Profile

Last Kms

TDF-stage2-lastkm

Contenders and Favourites

UPDATE: First, an update on stage 1, a crazy, stupid manoeuvre by Mark Cavendish in thelast 200m was exactly the reason I was prepared to take him on today in the place market. I got a 4pt lay bet off to win 6 pts, so along with the each way on an unlucky Sagan it wasn't a bad start to the Tour. Also the back of Cav to win less than 2 stages is looking pretty good now, as is Kittel to win more than 3 stages. Significantly though for my preview, which I penned before today's stage, it was Simon Gerrans who Cav brought down in the crash, when Gerrans looked to be flying. Apparently he is ok and just has a few scrapes and bruises and will be ok for tomorrow but he will surely be affected by it. Hopefully not though as my bet is on!

What a stage this could be - climb after climb after climb will really soften up the peloton and we could have stragglers all over the road. The race is being described as being like Liege-Bastogne-Liege everywhere and you TDF-stage2-lastkm can see why. Relentless up and down all day with a sharp, hard kick just before the finish up Jenkin Road. The 33% max gradients and 11.4% average for 850m will certainly serve as the last decider - either a lone attack will get away, or like in LBL a small select group of puncheurs will get away from the remnants of the peloton and fight out the finish.

The gradient can be seen in the two pictures below, the second is just slightly farther up the road from the first. The angles of the walls on the pavement and the fact there is a handrail to help walkers gives you an idea as to how steep this is. Expect massive crowds on this climb as this is where the key action of the day should take place. There will be a lot of tired bodies hitting this climb after a really hard day in the saddle and there could well be bodies scattered all over the road by the end of the stage. We could even see some GC casualties if someone has a bad day.

jenkin jenkin2

So who do we think can win this stage? If we look at this stage like a LBL and with this sort of finish then it might be a good place to start with the LBL top 5 and La Flèche Wallonne and Amstel Gold too with their tough climbs right near the finish.

Simon Gerrans, Alejandro Valverde, Michael Kwiatkowski, Jelle Vanendert, Bauke Mollema, Tom-Jelte Slagter - they are all here. Dan Martin and Philippe Gilbert are probably the two big classics men that will not be here.

Simon Gerrans was good to me back in April when landing Liege-Bastogne-Liege at 25/1 - I had heard that time that he was in brilliant shape and really fancied himself for LBL, despite his doubters and detractors. He proved them all wrong with a stunning ride - I was getting more and more excited every time I saw a glimpse of him tucked away while everyone else was chasing and racing their legs off in the last 10kms.

The word is similar for this stage - he is targeting this stage, and why not? The winner of Liege-Bastogne-Liege targeting the stage everyone says is very similar to the great race! He hasn't done a lot of racing though since LBL, with just the 5 stages in the Bayern Rundfarth and 8 stages in the Critérium du Dauphiné since the end of April. The Critérium was a training spin for him by the looks of things as he pottered around for a week.

The word is now though that he is fit and ready to go. OGE have a strong team here with him and their target is stage wins with this one marked down as one that they want. Let's hope the problems with Darryl Impey's withdrawal hasn't affected the morale in the camp too much. I was really hoping for double figures for him, maybe 12 or 16/1 but he's nowhere near that unfortunately, the early prices has him the 6/1 second favourite behind Sagan. I think though if he gets to the finish with Sagan and a few more he will outsprint him. He is my main bet for this stage at 6/1. (The crash will have an effect on him though but hopefully he will be ok.

Alejandro Valverde was a monster early in the season, destroying the opposition in the Vuelta a Andalucia, winning three stages and the overall, with the stage 1 to Jaen having a similar sort of profile. He also won Roma Maxima well after getting away with Pozzovivo and then followed that up with a very impressive Ardennes Classics trilogy with 4th in Amstel Gold, 1st in Fleche Wallonne and 2nd in LBL, three results that will stand him in good stead for a stage like this one. He will look to steal any time advantage he can on Froome and his GC rivals and I expect him to attack on the Jenkin road, if not before further out in the countryside. It all depends on who goes with him, as the likes of Gerrans will outsprint him like he did in LBL. I think he has a good shot at the podium though.

Michael Kwiatkowski is another who could well jump on the wheel of Valverde or whoever makes the move on the Jenkin Road. The Pole started the season very well but has been a lot quieter of late, culminating in a disappointing showing in the Polish Nationals, relenquishing his jersey with a lowly 21st place. He did win the TT though but the opposition there were pretty average. I think he may not be just good enough for this one, he will not get away on his own and will possibly be left behind when the accelerations come. It may even be, given his poor climbing performances recently that he could be left behind somewhere out on the course.

Peter Sagan is the favourite for the stage though at 9/2 with Paddy Power (is only 7/2 with Skybet). He should love this finish too. It has a similar profile to the E3 Harelbeke which he won in March from Terpstra and Thomas. This stage though below of Tirreno-Adriatico probably matches the profile of the finish quite closely, with a ramp coming inside the last kilometre and Sagan doing the business after the race got stretched out in one long line.

He is bound to be involved but may be the follower rather than the instigator like in the video, lurking in 4th or 5th wheel and pouncing near the end. If he does, he will be hard to beat in the sprint, with only a few like Gerrans and maybe Degenkolb if he gets over with the leaders, that are likely to beat him. That is a big ask though for John Degenkolb, but they've done their recce of this course back in May and think that he could be involved. At 16/1 he might be worth an each-way bet.

Others who could be involved? André Greipel has a knack of getting over these sorts of climbs but I fear that the amount of climbing all day before it will have taken too much out of his legs. Tony Gallopin is capable possibly too of latching himself on to the end of the leading group and would be a candidate in the sprint. The likes of Roche, Albasini, Bakelants, Chavanel, they could all have a go in the closing kilometres. Forget about the pure sprinters, they won't get over Jenkin Road with the leaders.

I think though Gerro will be very hard to beat - he's a lot shorter than I was hoping for but will take it nonetheless.

Update: After looking at today's stage though it probably has swung the balance back in favour Sagan. Indeed he has shortened up to 5/2 from 9/2 whereas Gerro has drifted from 6/1 to 12/1! On the positive side Valverde has halved in price to 12/1 from the 25/1 first tipped up at here. Two others that might feature I think at big prices are Greg Van Avermaet and Samuel Dumoulin. GVA said today he was feeling really good and would have done better than the13th place he finished in as he had to avoid the crash. He also said he was looking forward to tomorrow, says the stage suits him well. At 50/1 with Paddy Power he's worth an interest.

Samuel Dumoulin is very capable on these sort sharp climbs and did well today, finishing in 15th place. If he can get over with the leaders tomorrow he could have a chance to use his fast sprint at a massive 200/1. I also think Sagan is worth a saver with Gerro's problems.

Recommendations:

Simon Gerrans - 2pts win at 6/1 with Skybet (12/1 now, have smaller stakes now if you want to still back him..)

Alejandro Valverde - 0.5pts each-way at 25/1 with Paddy Power

Peter Sagan - 2pts win at 5/2 with PP

Greg Van Avermaet - 0.3pts each-way at 50/1 with PP

Sam Dumoulin - 0.3pts each-way at 200/1 with PP

Match Bets

Roche to beat Arashiro at 5/6 with Skybet, Roche should finish in top 40, not sure Arashiro will as he got dropped today on a far easier stage.. 3pts

Van Avermaet to beat Chavanel at evens with Skybet, 2pts

Albasini to beat Riblon at 1.73 with Skybet - 2pts