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Published on Sunday, 24 August 2014 22:20

Vuelta a España St. 3

Cádiz to Arcos de la Frontera

Monday August 25th, 197.8kms 

It hasn't taken long for the Vuelta to hit the hilly roads, with only the second road stage of the race offering up a challenge to the non-climbing types. They head inland from the coastal town of Cadiz to the hills in the national park of the Sierra de Grazalema before heading back west again to the finish at Arcos de la Frontera. 

It is a challenging stage - it's long at 197,8kms and the temperatures are sure to be high again. It's a stage where we should see all the favourites come to the last 3kms together but it's not a day when there should be big gaps between the favourites at the finish. We may see some small gaps as they sprint up the final hill, but it may be down to people leaving the wheels go and small gaps forming which will give small time differences to the different groups as they come through the finish. The favourites may come to the finish together, but the rest of the peloton could be scattered all over the place given the finishing climb. 

It was almost an excellent day today on Stage 2 - Bouhanni won brilliantly as I expected him to, delivered superbly by Soupe who suddenly swept to the front just as it looked like they had burned their last match. Bouhanni was always in a perfect spot and finished it superbly, he was never going to be beaten. The one to take out of the finish though from the point of view of tomorrow was Degenkolb, who finished like a train, just was in a bad position in the last 200m. Hofland blew his chances with a bad bend about 400m from the finish when he lost about 10 places after initially being delivered to the front by his Belkin team-mates.

And that's why I say it was almost an excellent day, as Hofland was beaten by Boonen, but by one lousy place. That cost us the big match-bet and blew the treble, the other two landed. So it could have been a very profitable day, instead we'll have to settle for mildly profitable.. Contador did the business against Aru, tomorrow might be a different story though with the uphill finish, I'm not sure what kind of form Contador can bring to the finishing kick, but he does look up for it so far.. 

The Route

It starts off pretty sedately in terms of terrain, it's almost dead flat for the first 30kms before they go over a small, uncategorised climb after 34kms at Medina Sidonia. After about 68kms though, as they head in to the outskirts of the Sierra de Grazalema, they start climbing up to the first Cat 3 climb of the day. 

I think the action will be fast and furious right from the off on this stage - with three Categorised climbs to grab KOM points on, there is sure to be huge competition from the likes of Caja Rural, MTN Qhubeka and some of the other smaller teams to get a man in the break to try to take some early glory with the KOM jersey. If they can snag it today they could hold on to it for a good few days, possibly until stage 6.

After 83kms they start to hit the main obstacles of the day with first up the Cat 3 climb up to the Puerto de Gális and that's followed just 3.5kms later by the start of the second Cat 3 of the day, the 9km climb up to Alto Alcomocales. After a 20km tricky descent they start up the next Cat 3 climb to Alto Del Camino, a long climb at over 12kms long. About three quarter ways up it they hit a little plateau where they contest the first Intermediate Sprint. 

A small 10km descent follows to the fourth and final climb of the day, the Cat 3 climb up to Puerto del Boyar. Again, about a quarter way up they pass the second intermediate Sprint point of the day. A break is bound to go, and depending on the quality of it / or whether the bunch is really interested in chasing it, it should be either near the top of this climb or in the 50km descent to the finish once over the final climb.

There is a sting in the tail though at the finish with the kick up inside the 2km to go mark. With about 1700m to go the road kicks up at an average close to 6% until about 300m from the finish when it eases back a bit to actually a downhill finishing sprint. 

Contenders and Favourites

Now even though this is a very different type of sprint to stage 2, it will be useful to see how stage 2 pans out with the likes of Sagan, Matthews and Degenkolb also among the favourites for the flat sprint. If we see a big run from any of them then we can expect to see a big shift in their prices for the victory on stage 3. Fair play to PP for pricing this up nice and early, but we could see big changes come Sunday afternoon after the end of Sunday's stage. 

Is it worth taking a price now (Saturday night) against someone I fancy? No, I'd rather wait and see how stage 2 pans out. 

Peter Sagan is favourite for the stage at 4/1, followed by a little group of  riders between 7/1 and 12/1, including Gilbert, Valverde, Degenkolb, Matthews and Cancellara. It's like the lineup for a hilly spring classic..

Now after watching stage 1 today, it was interesting to see Peter Sagan finish in 45th position or something like that, way down.. looks like he led out Gatto for the sprint. Considering he was one of the favourites for stage 2 I'm glad I took him on. Where that leaves him for tomorrow's stage is hard to say, was he saving his legs for tomorrows finish which suits him more, or does he just not have the legs? Hard to say, but even though he is the favourite for the stage again I'm going to take him on with two riders - One who finished really fast today and the second who I picked just a little prematurely maybe for today's stage. 

John Degenkolb came from a long way back inside the last 100m today to steal second place, he finished the fastest of them all, although the job was done for Bouhanni at the time. Tomorrow is a much more suitable sort of finish for him and today's sprint said to me that he is in fantastic shape. He just got caught out in a bad position today. I think tomorrow the team will be much more dialled in to his chances and if he can finish like he did today he should go very close to winning. If he can hang on to the wheels of the leaders over the final 2kms, the last 300m or so are flat to downhill - there won't be many sprinters left in the race at this point so if he is still there, that sprint we saw today should be a winning one. He is a standout price of 8/1 with Skybet and that has to be taken, he is only 7/2 with Bet365 and Paddy Power. 

The second rider, I picked each-way today and he finished 12th, Michael Matthews. I thought he might have been up for it today, but it emerged from the team tonight that they weren't all that interested in winning the stage, just were going to see how it went and if they got a result it would have been a bonus. But as Neil Stephens said today, they are targeting a stage in the opening stages and they did deliberately ask him 'not to peel off' in the TTT so that he would have a shot at taking the jersey in the opening stages. 

Tomorrow's stage suits him just like Degenkolb - he should be able to hang in there on the final ramp and has the kick to get close to winning it at the finish. What we saw today though was Degenkolb just seemed on a higer level to Matthews, and if they come head to head in the last 500m tomorrow I think Degenkolb will take him, but he should be capable of coming close in the sprint to a top 3. 

Next in the betting is Philippe Gilbert, and although he has been in good form recently, I don't think he will get away from the pack on the run in to the finish and he doesn't have the sprint anymore to beat the guys named above. Nacer Bouhanni was head and shoulder above the rest today but he will find it much harder to stay at the front of affairs in the last 2kms tomorrow. 

The likes of Valverde, Cancellara and Evans, other Classics type men, as well as Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez, Quintana, Froome and Contador should be at the front of affairs but maybe not in a position to win it come the last 300m. 

I'm picking Degenkolb to come out on top tomorrow with Matthews chasing him home, and we could possibly see someone like Valverde taking 3rd spot in an effort to preserve his Red Jersey. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on John Degenkolb at 8/1 with Skybet (this has been chopped now but there is still some 7/1 with Stan James)

0.5pts each-way on Micheal Matthews at 8/1 with Skybet. 

Match Bets 

Degenkolb to beat Bouhanni, Matthews to beat Ciolek, 2pts on the double, it pays 0.77/1 

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