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Published on Monday, 25 August 2014 15:56

Vuelta a España St. 4

Mairena del Alcor to Córdoba

Tuesday August 26th, 164.7kms 

Stage 4 takes them further inland, in to the provence of Cordoba where they face a relatively short day in the saddle at only 164.7kms. It's dead flat for about 115kms until they hit a little speedbump in the road, the Cat 3 climb of the Alto de San Jerónimo. At the 135km mark they pass through Cordoba for the first time before going off on a 30km loop around the city. 

Stage 3 panned out half ways like I expected it and we landed a good winner in Matthews at 8/1, but unfortunately, although he was in a brilliant position with 1200m to go, Degenkolb just couldn't respond to the Katusha surge when it came up the left hand side of the road. Dan Martin and Michael Matthews could though and they were super strong to pull away from the rest like they did. Very encouraging signs for Martin's chances in Spain, he looked very strong today and was only passed by one of the best sprinters in the race in a situation like that. 

Encouraging signs also for Rodriguez as he got up to take 3rd and Kelderman who took 4th, encouraging signs for our 80/1 man! One of the performances of the day though, even if he only finished in 8th place, was from Nacer Bouhanni. He was not expected to be in the top 10 today, and certainly wasn't supposed to beat John Degenkolb and kill my match bet double.. Evans, Froome, Quintana, Contador, Gesink and Uran all finished in the front group, but Valverde lost 7" and Carlos Betancur's race is all over after losing more than 20 minutes. Valverde's time loss was as a result of a crash 20km from the finish, caused by a team-mate screwing up a musette grab and bringing down three Movistar riders. He said he hurt his back in the crash but was able to get up quickly and continue but it'll be interesting to see if it affects him a bit more in the coming days. 

The stage looks tailor made for a breakaway, a lazy Monday off maybe for the peloton. The break battle should rage for the first 20kms or so but when they do go they should be capable of building up 8 or 10 minutes lead on the peloton. The chase will be on in earnest as they hit Cordoba with 37km to go, but if there's a strong rider/ riders out front they may be able to hang on to two or three minutes lead or so going over the top of the final climb. With only 25kms to go of descending/flat roads they might just be able to hang on. 

The Route

Not a lot to say about the first 115kms as I said above, other than it will probably be very hot! The temperatures are expectd to rise throughout the day from 34º in the morning to 39º in the afternoon. They'll also have a tailwind all day more or less, which will help with any break's effort to build a decent gap.

It's almost dead flat, reaching heights of only 80-100m along the way. Then at the 106km mark they hit the start of the Cat 3 climb which lifts them to the dizzying heights of 440m. It's 4.3kms long at an average of 7% so it's a short, sharp effort that could hurt some of the sprinters, depending on how hard they press on at the front in pursuit of the break and the stage victory. 

On through Cordoba and the finish line for the first time, and shortly after, at 130km gone they start up the Alto del Catorce por Ciento, a Cat 2 climb which drags on at an average of 5% for 9kms, so it should be fast rather than steep and hard for the first part of the climb. As they near the top though there are the sections which give the climb its name 'catorce por ciento = 14%!) when it get quite steep. They then roll along a plateau for about 10kms before descending fast down towards Cordoba for the finish again. The last 5kms are almost dead flat with just an ever so slightly downhill slope, but then as they hit the 1500m to go mark or so it starts to rise gently again, rising about 25m in the run to the line. 

WIth about 2km to go they sweep around a roundabout taking a left hand exit, fly over the Rio Guadalquivir bridge before arcing right on to the Ave Conde de Vallalano. At the top of this road they sweep through a right then left in a chicane as they hit the final straight on the Paseo de la Victoria. The finishing straight is 400m long and dead straight, if it does come down to a bunch sprint (although possibly a reduced sprint) then it should be a reasonably straightforward sprint you'd think. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a hard stage to call as there are probably many of the pro-continental teams and the likes of Europcar who had a shockingly bad TTT who are desperate to get men in an early break for some TV coverage. There is a strong chance a break of 5-10 riders gets away and they could build up a big lead with a strong tailwind and almost dead flat parcours. The peloton will be a warmer place to be in and they could get bored and take it easy today. 

Who will be in the break is the great conundrum - almost impossible to pick - but you'd have to think they need to be able to climb too at the end of it to be able to handle a 9km long Cat 2 climb only 25kms from the finish. 

If it is pulled back then it will be probably be because of the teams who have a rider who can survive the Cat 2 climb and arrive at the finish for a sprint. The kind of riders that spring to mind are the sorts of guys who were prominent on stage 3 - Michael Matthews, Bouhanni and the like. 

Is that final climb too tough for these sprinter types? Well, it probably depends on what's going on up front - if there is still a large gap to the break then they might have to go hell for leather up the climb in order to try to pull them back or they might make it with the fast descent to the finish. Also, if the climber types want to get rid of the sprinters for the likes of Valverde to try to win the sprint then the likes of Movistar could try to blow it apart on the final climb to get rid of Matthews, Degenkolb and the like. 

I think a break won't make it and the peloton will try to rip it up that last climb. Nacer Bouhanni proved today that he is very strong and can cope with steepish hills. But that was over 1500m at an average of around 6%, this is 9kms with parts that hit 14%, a far tougher task. Bling Matthews work on his climbing is paying dividends and he was superb today - to make it look as easy as he did to follow and pass Dan Martin, when none of the GC guys could go with him, shows just how strong Matthews is at the moment. At 7/1 with Paddy Power I think it offers a bit of value as I think he has a great chance to be contesting the sprint for the win. 

I think OGE will look to blow it apart on the climb and they may have help from Movistar and a few other teams like Cannondale who might want to try to set up Oscar Gatto for the sprint. With the lumpy terrain for about 10km after the top of the climb, if the pace is up it could be hard for stragglers to get back on. We could see a small group of 40 or 50 riders get away to contest the finish. If so, you'd have to think Matthews would be one of them, Bouhanni I'm not so sure. But it is hard to bet against Bouhanni in this condition at the moment - if he makes it over with the leaders then he should win. But I just think he might struggle tomorrow to stay with them if they really do their best to shake him off. 

John Degenkolb was looking very strong, was in a great position, then the explosive attacks started and he just couldn't respond. There will probably be attacks at the top of the climb with escape attempts trying to get away but the rest of the climb should be a lot steadier and maybe he'll be able to hang of longer than say the likes of Bouhanni. If he just gets dropped at the top on the 14% sections he may be able to get back on if his team surrounds him and works for him on the climb and chase. If they let OGE do all the work like today then they should be reasonably fresh coming to the last 25kms. Although I'd really like to back him as I think he might just do it, I think there are enough doubts about him to not want to risk it at 3/1 or so. 

One rider who impressed today was Belkins Paul Martens - 5th on the stage, just behind Rodriguez, but ahead of some big name puncheurs and GC men.  At the start of June the German rider won a sprint ahead of the likes of Van Avermaet, Terpstra and Gilbert in a tough, lumpy stage of the Tour of Belgium, which included two ascents of the Mur du Huy, so he can cope with steep slopes pretty well. He also won a stage of the 2012 Vuelta a Burgos, beating Dani Moreno, Simon Clarke and Nacer Bouhanni. Belkin looked strong today with Kelderman 4th, Martens 5th and Gesink 14th.

It looked for a while on TV like Gesink was in trouble but he looked to be going to fast to me to have been in trouble at the time, I think it must have been a mechanical as he had two team-mates with him. The 14th place probably backs that up. Hofland may struggle, but Martens should be able to get over these climbs and if Kelderman, Gesink and Co are with him he could get a super lead-out for the sprint. At 50/1 he is worth a shot. 

Of course there are several others who could get involved here - Oscar Gatto as I mentioned earlier now looks like the main man for Cannondale and Sagan could still try to get him in the right spot to win. Stuyven has been strong too but he struggled today and lost 48". Valverde, Debuscherre, Boonen and maybe Bennatti could be at the front of affairs. Overall though I think we might see Matthews taking advantage of some more excellent work from OGE to take his second win in a row to take the points jersey as well as the Red Jersey. Paul Martens will hopefully top 3 it for us at 50/1. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Michael Matthews at 6/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts e/w on Paul Martens at 50/1 with Paddy Power

Match Bets 

Contador to beat Uran - 1pt at 5/6 with Bet365

Philippe Gilbert to beat LL Sanchez - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Mondory to beat Reynes (4/11), S Sanchez to beat Rodriguez (4/9), Matthews to beat Gatto (4/11), Martens to beat Lutsenko (2/5) and Kelderman to beat D Martin (1/2) - 1pt on the five-fold pays 4.64/1 with Bet365

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