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- Published on Tuesday, 09 September 2014 21:46
Vuelta a España St. 17
Ortigueira to A Coruña
Wednesday September 10th, 190.7kms
So there are five stages left and it looks like the GC is done and dusted now with Contador's powerhouse performance today. He is now 1'36 ahead of Rodriguez and a further 3" ahead of Froome, who once again put on a show. Stage 17 sees them back on the flat roads and it looks like a day for the sprinters, the few of them that are left in the race.
It was an exciting and dramatic stage Sunday which saw De Marchi almost making it all the way, just getting passed by the Froome/Contador train in the last 3kms. He held on well by 5" to deny us the each-way on Valverde, which is annoying. Froome beat Aru to land the evens match bet, but Contador bust the treble by beating Rodriguez, the other two won. A 3pt loss on the day.
We also saw the amazing punch-up between Rovny and Brambilla which saw them both ejected from the race..It reminded me of when I was racing in the Junior Tour in 1993, we were in the middle of sprinting for the finish of the stage to Clonmel in Tipperary when just in front of me one of my 'team-mates' was having a punching match not too dissimilar to Rovny and Brambilla today, fists flying.. It saw him get a time penalty as far as I remember.
He was a team-mate, but actually was a lad from Dublin who was looking for a team to ride the race with and we took him in.. He was a bit strange, I remember one thing in particular about him, he cut off his road handlebars just below the brake hoods, he didn't need the bit of bar from below the brake levers apparently, he sprinted and climbed on the hoods..
It turned out today then that Purito Rodriguez punched Philip Deignan square in the face and cut his lip when Deignan tried to hold his position looking after Froome while coming down a descent. Despite the fact that loads in the bunch saw it apparently and their DS marched him over to the Sky bus to apologise after, it doesn't look like anything is going to happen to Purito, which must make Brambilla and Rovny even madder than what they were with the situation..
The Route
An almost pan flat run along the coast to the finishing town of A Coruña for 190kms is almost certain to end in a bunch sprint. I don't think the break will stay today as Giant-Shimano have a green jersey to win and Degenkolb is the most likely winner today. I say almost certain to end in a bunch sprint but the one factor that could impact that would be the winds sweeping in off the sea.
It is forecast that they'll have a tailwind for the first 100km, which will help the break, until they reach the exposed coast around Sada and change direction where it will become a side wind. Expect some teams to try to split it in echelons here.
They pass through the southern suburbs of A Coruña after about 125 kms before going out on a loop south of the city. They'll face a headwind on the return back to the city though and that'll probably spell the end for the break.
The run in to the line is winding and dangerous with lots of roundabouts, one coming just 200m from the line. It will require a good lead out train controlling things for the last 5kms or so, G-S are capable of that as long as they aren't too tired if they've been chasing all day..
Route Map
Profile
Contenders and Favourites
I really can't see past John Degenkolb for tomorrow, it's a very easy stage after a rest day so the sprinters teams should be able to keep things under control and bring it all back together inside the last 20kms. Paddy Power once again show all the others how a market making service should be done by coming out with their prices on Monday for Wednesday's stage. They make Degenkolb the 10/11 favourite and that sounds about right, in fact I thought he would be closer to 4/7, I think he has closer to a 66% chance of winning this stage than a 50% chance.
Others have now come out tonight and there is evens available with Coral and 11/10 with Betfair, but he is generally 10/11. You are almost betting that there will be a 50% chance of a crash or a break makes it as I think if he hits the last 200m at or near the front he won't be beaten.
Two of his biggest rivals in recent sprints - Bouhanni and Sagan have gone home and Guardini just doesn't seem to be in his league at the moment, despite apparently spending most of today hanging on to the team car according to Nikolas Maes
To @AndreaGuardini in english; Next time get in the car instead of hanging on it the whole stage, desgrace for your @AstanaTeam@LaVuelta
— Nikolas Maes (@nikolas_maes) September 8, 2014
Michael Matthews is out of the running for the sprints jersey now so he will be chasing stage wins and he should be close tomorrow. The problem is he has been mixed on the flatter sprints and he is too short at 6/1 in my opinion. Tom Boonen has been sprinting well too, taking 2nd on stage 12 behind Degenkolb. He should get a good lead-out from the OPQS guys to deliver him on to Degenkolb's tail in the last 300m. I think he may be good enough for a podium spot tomorrow but I don't think he'll be winning it..16s isn't a bad each-way price though.
I've given Roberto Ferrari a few chances before and he has come close, but not close enough, but at 40/1 he might be worth another look tomorrow. 3rd on Stage 2 behind Degekolb and Bouhanni and if he can repeat that sort of performance he should go close tomorrow. The problem is that the last time there was a sprint on stage 12, he did some sort of crazy attack/rubbish leadout for Richeze was all a bit of nothing. He went too soon, he let a gap behind, it was useless whatever he was trying. Maybe tomorrow they will go back to a normal sprint with Ferrari going for it.
Recommendations:
2pts win on John Degenkolb at 11/10 on Betfair
0.3pts each-way on Roberto Ferrari at 40/1 with Bet365 (since I placed my bet they have cut to 33/1 which is available in a few places, that's still worth backing each-way I think.
Match Bets
Degenkolb to beat Guardini, Matthews to beat Debusschere, Boonen to beat Ciolek - 1pt on the treble pays 6/4 with 365.
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