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Published on Friday, 05 September 2014 22:56

Vuelta a España St. 14

Santander to La Camperona. Valle de Sabero

Saturday September 6th, 200.8kms 

As Celine Dion once sang 'This is getting serious, are you thinking about you, or us?' Well it is getting serious for sure in the Vuelta - but who will we be thinking about at the top of the GC come the end of today's stage? It's sure to cause another reshuffle in the top 10 and possibly even in the red leader's jersey if Contador suddenly and unexpectedly falters. 

I say unexpectedly, but we know by now that we should expect the unexpected in these races now. Just ask Froome, Contador or Quintana. Or even poor Steve Morabito who was hit by by a motorbike and had to abandon. You can see the motorbike hitting some riders on the left hand side of the video below in the amazing footage shot from the camera on the seatpost of Chris Anker Sorensen - this was also the crash that took out Quintana.

As is now traditional with the Vuelta they hit the peloton with a trio of hard mountain stages on the penultimate weekend to shake up the GC. Saturday's stage is probably the easiest of the three as although the final climb gets really steep at the finish, it's really only hard for the last few kilometres. Sunday's stage is on the iconic Cavadonga and Monday's is a particularly hard stage with a lot of climbing.

This is going to be a big day, no doubt about it, with two Cat 1 climbs and a summit finish that averages 17.5% for the last 2kms, hitting a max of 19.5%. There shouldn't be massive gaps between the main GC men though as it really only gets steep for the last 2kms or so and there should be a regrouping on the run between the 2nd last climb and the start of the final climb.

No good on the stage winner bets today, but two out of two on the match bets put me marginally ahead on the day as I also backed Matthews for 1pt in play at 10s and Aru for 0.2pts at 120s, so it resulted in a 0.55pt profit.

The Route

They start on the coast in Santander and head predominantly south-west for the 200km long stage - one of the longest stages of the race. There is an early intermediate sprint which could see Degenkolb looking to add to his Green Jersey tally. They hit the first climb of the day after 70kms - the Cat 2 Collada de la Hoz. This was the climb on which Contador attacked Rodriguez on the way to Fuente De in 2012 to steal the race off him. It's 7.1kms long at an average of 6%, so nothing too hard for the GC men to loosen the legs on and shake off some of the stragglers.

They hit the foot of the next climb at the bottom of the descent of the Hoz at the 90km mark and although the official distance of the climb is 20.9km it's actually closer to 40kms from the foot of the mountain, making it a very long and very tough climb. It's a Cat 1 that averages 5.8% but hits max gradients of over 11%, but the second half of the climb is harder than the first half which has some low to flat gradients for parts of it.

After an initial fast and twisty 10km descent it eases off a bit but still descends for around another 40kms until they hit the final climb of the day, the Camperona. The first 4kms are pretty easy, averaging only around 3%, but as they hit the 4km to go mark the road starts rising sharply - first up to around 8% average until the 2.5km to go mark and then suddenly it hits 15%, then 19.5% and 14.4% in a leg-breaking final 2kms through a few switch-backs. It eases a little to 'just' 8.5% for the last 200m or so but I think at that stage we will have a solo rider rather than a sprint finish.

Contenders and Favourites

There is a chance makes it tomorrow as the GC teams might be more worried about the next two stages that are coming up on Sunday and Monday and may fancy an easy day in the saddle. Having said that though, there are very few breaks let succeed in any of the Grand Tours this year, every break is chased relentlessly almost every time. I will pick a few wildcards for the break later on but for now I'm going to go through the chances of the GC favourites.

The steep ramps at the finish of today's stage are going to really test the best here and we could see some small time gaps here at the end of the stage. The climb isn't long enough to create large time gaps but it could definitely rearrange some of the top 10. The time bonus on the line for the winner could be very important and will be chased hard in particular by two riders - Rodriguez and Valverde.

Joaquim Rodriguez would have been a shoe-in for this stage for several years now, but we aren't seeing that Purito here so far. He has been strong, he has shown himself and he did chase Contador (with Moreno's help) on Stage 9 to close the gap to nothing on the line. He usually eats these gradients up with an explosive attack, something like he did in the Clasica just a month or so ago and if he can find his old legs tomorrow he should take all the beating. At just 5/2 though he is very short and I'm not sure I trust him to pull it off.

Alejandro Valverde has been riding very well most days of course, and won on La Zubia with a tremendous show of strength and stamina. He has said today that his legs are feeling great and is probably fearing the longer climbs of the next two stages when he could struggle, so a time gap and a 10" bonus are very important tomorrow. He might find the 15-19% sections a little hard but then again he has won Fleche-Wallonne.. If he can get over in the first little group, if a little group does come to the finish together, then he will probably outsprint most of them. Again though, is 7/1 value? Maybe each-way but I think he is a win or bust bet tomorrow.

Alberto Contador is the joint 5/2 favourite alongside Purito and so far his ride in this race has been nothing short of miraculous. Will he show signs of weakness and fatigue at some point? It's possible. Can he deal with the steep gradients here? I'm not so confident. He has been very strong though and has shown himself to be one of the best climbers here with his attack on stage 9, dancing away in his trademark style while the others took a while to respond. He tried a little dig on stage 9 but was no match for Aru when he went and I think he could be caught for speed tomorrow too.

Dan Martin tried again today, twice, and again we saw that he just doesn't have the kick or the power to get away and stay away. What is obvious now too is that he is most definitely a marked man - every time he attacks now he is immediately chased down, more often than not by Katusha for some reason.. If he can show the kind of kick that sees him fly up the hill at Fleche-Wallone he could well be in with a big shout here, but unfortunately he has not shown that kick so far in this Vuelta. I'm sure he will try, but I'm not sure he'll succeed.

Chris Froome could be a dark horse for this stage - he has been resilient and dogged in his recent performances, and even had the audacity to try an attack off the front today with a few kms to go. That had the look of a leg tester though and it may be that he is riding himself in to form at the right time with the mountains coming up. With wins on mountains like La Planche des Belle Filles he has shown that he is capable on the really steep ones and we all know that he is well capable of explosive attacks, especially Contador - he can really get those legs flying. At 18/1 he could well spring a surprise tomorrow.

Fabio Aru has shown the most explosive burst yet though with his brilliantly timed attack on Stage 11 - he went so fast that Rodriguez said he tried to respond but couldn't, he was gone too fast. We're unsure about his abilities on the really steep climbs like this though, but if he can explode away with the same power it could well take him away from the others who seem to be just a little slower out of the blocks. Once he gets away he has great finishing power, like he showed in the Giro to keep it up all the way to the line. 12/1 with PP is tempting..

There are a few outsiders who could go close from the main favourites group - Dani Navarro showed today the legs are good and although it looks like he maybe took advantage of a bit of cat and mouse behind he was very strong in the steepest sections to catch Brambilla and leave him behind. We might see another attack from him tomorrow with Cofidis boosted by their first Grand Tour stage win in 3 years. Another similar rider who I quietly fancy for tomorrow though is the rider who chased him home today - Dani Moreno.

Moreno can take time to come to the boil sometimes, but the way he dragged Purito along on stages 9 and 11 were very impressive, he's got a lot of power there at the moment. He also exploded out of the pack today to chase Navarro and nearly caught him. It could well be that Rodriguez might not have the legs and they let Moreno take his chance on a finish that should suit him (remember he won on Valdepenas de Jaen last year with it's brutally steep slopes). There could be the situation where the favourites are all watching each other, watching Rodriguez, waiting for the attack and Moreno explodes away.. 25/1 each-way is worth a shot I think.

Others in the GC group that could go well, Esteban Chaves has been a bit of a disappointment so far and hasn't really got in a blow in any of the mountain stages. Being a young and inexperienced rider it is hard to know now if his legs are coming to him or whether he is starting to fatigue a lot but if his legs are coming to him, a rider of his style should dance up those steep parts. I can't see it though so I'm going to pass on the 66/1.

And so to the breakaway lottery - a few that could be involved - Dario Cataldo has been riding very strongly and may be sent up the road by Sky tomorrow to take a chance. He is 100/1 with Paddy Power and that is worth a tiny investment maybe. Przemyslaw Niemiec is still riding pretty strong but the race as a whole has been a disappointment for him and Lampre, even before it started with Horner's withdrawal. He could well get in the break of the day and would have the power to maybe finish it off on the final climb too. 100/1 with Ladbrokes.

Adam Yates has also disapponted, we were hoping to see more of him in the front groups but we've hardly seen him. He could well try to get in the break tomorrow too as if he can get to that final steep climb with some power left in his legs he could go close to winning this. He's 100/1 with Paddy Power. I've given up on giving Louis Meintjes chances, he's bound to go and win it tomorrow now.

It's a very hard stage to call but I think a few long shots and a few GC bets might get us a return.

Recommendations:

0.75pt each-way on Dani Moreno at 25/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Adam Yates at 100/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Niemiec at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Dario Cataldo at 100/1 with Paddy Power

0.5 pts win on Fabio Aru at 12/1 with Paddy Power

Match Bets 

Giampaolo Caruso to beat Landa - 1pt win at 8/11 with Bet365

Pardilla to beat Anacona - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Dan Martin to beat S Sanchez - 2pt at 10/11

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