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Published on Thursday, 04 September 2014 22:56

Vuelta a España St. 13

Belorado to Obregón. Parque de Cabárceno

Friday September 5th, 188.4kms 

Stage 13 takes the riders almost to the north coast of Spain and the city of Santander, but they stop short of entering the city by taking a right turn off the CA-142 and up in to the Parque de Cabárceno, where there is a nasty little climb up the hill to the park to stretch things 2.5kms from home. 

The Natural Park of Cabárceno houses a huge animal park, but is neither a conventional zoo nor a natural park (parque natural) in the normal Spanish use of the term. It is a naturalized space reclaimed from 750 hectares (1,900 acres) of a former open pit mine.

The natural park is home to a hundred animal species from five continents living in semi-free conditions, which are distributed in large enclosures where one or more species coexist. Except for food provided to them, the rest of the animal's activities are marked by their almost total freedom. Almost all of them trigger fights and mating season struggles for control of females. So says Wikipedia about the finishing area.. 

There will be plenty of wild animals on show on the road though, such as Chris 'The Giraffe' Froome, Alberto 'The Bull' Contador, Nacer 'The Rat' Bouhanni, Cadel 'The Crocadile' Evans and Alejandro 'The Cheetah' Valverde.. 

Stage 12 was spoiled by the crash that took out Bouhanni and held up Matthews, but I hope some of you took the 'free' win bet on Degenkolb as it would have been a nice winner for you!  Two match bets won to save the day a little, but not much you can legislate for with a crash taking so many out. At least Degenkolb has added to his lead in the points jersey, still a hard one for him but it's definitely looking possible now for at least the place money at 25/1. 

The Route

The course takes them north-west generally from Belorado where they descend gently for the first 50kms before then climbing gently for the next 60kms, the last 11kms of which are a Cat 3 climb. The climb of the Alto de Estacas de Truebla only averages around 2.5% for those 11kms but will probably still see the field whittled down as the sprinters and the fatigued form their own Park Tour Bus.

In fact, from the 100km mark the course changes to quite a hard hilly one, with first that Cat 3 climb, then a long, fast desent for 15kms which takes them straight to the foot of the next Cat 3 - the Puerto de la Braguia, which averages 6.1% over 6kms is a much shorter and sharper climb and we should see the next wave of fallers from the peloton.

After 141kms they start up the Alto de Caracol, a 2nd Cat climb which is longer at 10kms but not as steep, averaging 5.5%. This may be where we see the break of the day's strong man strike for home on a solo bid for glory with just 37kms to go, about 20kms of which are descending. After 16kms or so of rolling terrain heading along a big main road (with a light left side cross-wind) they take that right turn up to the Park and hit the final obstacle of the day...

In just 700m they rise 115m, making it an average of 16.4%, a brutal wall to hit them with after 185.5kms.. but it is worse than that - as it varies in steepness, there are parts that hit 24% apparently, (although it is hard to see a true gradient for the finishing hill anywhere) making this finish one for the punchy riders and snappy climbing specialists. Once over the climb though there are still about 1700m left to race, with a small descent, then a small rise and a small descent to the finish line for the last 400m. If there is a small bunch fighting it out and someone tries to go solo on the steep ramp they will also need to be able to push it all the way to the line and hold off the rabid pack.

Contenders and Favourites

This looks like a day made for a breakaway but with the very fast start we may not see the break form for a long time.. it could take 60kms or more, possibly only after the intermediate sprint after 93kms. It might finally get away then on the first climb of the day. Whoever wants to get in it though will need to be able to climb as the last 100kms are pretty hilly and pretty hard, right up to the final killer 24% ramp 2kms from home. With two brutally hard stages on Saturday and Sunday It could well be a day we see the GC men call a truce and let the breakaway men have their day, then scrap it out for small time gains on the final climb. 

And if a break is going to make it, it's back to being very hard to pick who's in it - so pick your lucky balls and see how you fare in the breakaway lottery! 

It could still come down to a GC/favourites battle though, maybe some of the teams fancy the stage win and will push really hard for the last 80kms when the break will be starting to feel it with a head-wind on those climbs.. There are lots of teams still without a stage win such as Katusha, Garmin-Sharp, Sky, Lotto-Belisol, Orica GreenEDGE, BMC and Trek Factory Racing, all big guns who will be disappointed with that. 

The bookies are pricing it up likes it's an Ardennes Classic tomorrow, I guess expecting the puncheurs to cope well with the final hill and fight it out at the finish. There's quite a difference in a lot of the prices though as it is a really hard stage to try to price up, very hard to know how it will shape up. Philippe Gilbert has been installed as 7/1 with Bet365 and Will Hill, but is 9/1 with PP. Gilbert had been finding some form before the Vuelta with some good rides in London and at the Eneco Tour. He has been going ok too in the Vuelta with a 4th and a 7th place finish but should he be favourite for this stage? Maybe not I think.. He still seems to be lacking the killer instinct.

Next is Alejandro Valverde at 11/1 best price and there is no need to explain in too much detail why he has a great chance - he should cope with the hill no problem and will be going all out to steal time on Contador to move closer to the red jersey - the 10" bonus on the line will help greatly. He is definitely capable of a top 5 here I think.

Michael Matthews - how is he after the crash today? Did he hit the ground? Until we can get more info on whether he might have a knock or not it might be wise to hold off for now on him if you were thinking of taking the 10/1 with Bet365 (he opened at 12/1 though). If he is ok then he has a great chance tomorrow - he should be able to cope with the final climb and if it comes to a small sprint he should be one of the favourites.

Peter Sagan is also around the 10/1 mark and he has started to show himself more and more over the past few days after looking completely unfit and uninterested for the first week. 4th in the sprint today and 3rd on stage 8 to Albacete this is the sort of finish that he loves if it was in March or April in Belgium! If he decides to get involved tomorrow he could well podium again but 10/1 is too short for me.

Joaquim Rodriguez must be desperate for a stage at this point, he always wins stages in the Vuelta! But he is not the Purito of old, the kick just isn't there. He is still very strong though finishing near the front of all the hilly stages, but he neither has the kick to get enough of a gap on the hill nor is he a good enough sprinter to win from a small group.

Dan Martin has been riding strangely - dropped on La Zubia when favourite for the stage, doing little attacks which haven't really gone anywhere.. he seems to be strong but like Rodriguez is lacking the kick to really get away from them. Compare his attack inside the last few kms on stage 11 to Aru's attack - he got about 20m, Aru just blasted away from them all. He should be at the front of affairs again, but I can't see him getting enough of a gap to win solo and he will not outsprint the likes of Valverde or Matthews.

We're faced with the same conundrums again as regards who really has good legs when it comes to the GC men. Chris Froome was a human yo-yo on Wednesday, I don't think I've ever seen someone look so much in trouble, so often and then hit the front with 2kms to go! He gets caught out with the quick accelerations but just grinds that power meter to the precise numbers and just keeps going. He will be better on longer climbs than this and I think he will be caught for speed again tomorrow.

Contador also will not be good enough I think, he tried a little attack just before Aru and was blown away by Aru - he may be showing some fatigue which wouldn't be surprising, he has been superb so far. This is not really his finish, he is similar to Martin in his capabilities at the moment. Can Cadel Evans show the form he had in Utah on a finish like this? He has been almost anonymous so far but did ride a surprisingly good TT.

If the break manages to stay away though, who could be in it that could take this stage? Alessandro de Marchi was superb on stage 7, even managing to beat Hesjedal and his motorised bike (!). This is another stage that suits his abilities and I wouldn't be surprised if he was on the attack again. Peter Sagan could also try to go on the attack maybe, but I think he'll wait in the bunch. After a day of controversy, I wouldn't be surprised to see Ryder Hesjedal go on the attack to try to prove some sort of a point (I can win without a motor!). He's 40/1 with PP and that might be worth a small e/w bet.

Adam Hansen could also go on the attack, he has been pretty active compared to the poor TDF he had when I don't think he went in one break.. he is 70/1 with Will Hill but I might wait and see if we get 100+ on Betfair. Julian Arredondo has not really lived up to the hype in this race and has been pretty disappointing - Trek tried to set him up on Stage 11 going in to the final climb and his contribution was pretty pathetic. Maybe a stage like this is better for him with a couple of toughish climbs on the way to the finish where he can maybe whittle down the break and then attack on the final ramp.

Rinaldo Nocentini has been active recently, getting in the break on stage 9 and finishing 23rd, but last year on stage 13 he was on the attack and 'won' the stage behind breakaway winner Barguil on a similar profile to this stage. He could well get in the attack again and has a fast finish if he can stay away to the finish. At 125/1 he is a long shot, but a decent price. Javier Moreno was let off the leash in that same break as Nocentini on stage 9 and he could well be left go again, he is 200/1 with PP.

I think it is one for a few shots at big prices for the break as I give them a good chance of staying away as teams are going to be trying to save energy ahead of the next three mountainous stages. But also watch the in-play as I think if it looks doomed you might still be able to back Matthews around 10/1 in play.

Recommendations:

0.4pts win on Alessandro de Marchi at 40/1 with Will Hill

0.25pts each-way on Rinaldo Nocentini at 125/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts win on Julian Arredondo at 100/1 with Paddy Power

0.1pt win on Javier Moreno at 200/1 with PP

Look to back Micheal Matthews in-play if the break is looking like it will not make it.

Match Bets 

Cadel Evans to beat LL Sanchez at 4/6 - 2pts win

Pardilla to beat Anacona - 2pts win at 5/6

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