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Published on Tuesday, 02 September 2014 23:56

Vuelta a España St. 12

Logroño to Logroño

Thursday September 4th, 166.4kms 

Stage 12 is quite an unusual one for a Grand Tour in that it is like a large Crit race - 8 laps of a 20km circuit in a loop around the outskirts of the city of  Logroño. There's a small little lump to get over at the southern point of the circuit but other than that it is a pretty flat and boring looking profile, almost certainly going to end up in a sprint finish. 

Well the drama doesn't let up in this Vuelta does it. No sooner had today's stage started it seems when news started to filter through on Twitter that Quintana had crashed again and had abandoned.. at first it was a 'hang on, do I believe this tweet or not?' kind of moment but then more and more came through and it was clearly the case. Hard to believe that another Grand Tour favourite had crashed out so early again. 

After that though it was a pretty exciting stage to watch with Froome pulling off an incredible performance to get back to the leaders repeatedly despite being dropped several times. Not only did he get back at one point with 2kms to go but he went to the front and started stretching it again until Navarro and Aru attacked. I dismissed Aru as not being at his Giro level but boy did he make me eat my words with a stunning attack at the perfect time, taking advantage of some looking at each other by the favourite's group. Behind, Contador, Valverde and Rodriguez, the three amigos, finished together fractionally ahead of Froome. 

Valverde picked up 7" from Contador today to cut his deficit to just 20" but Contador has shortened even further now to just 4/9. I still think Contador will have a bad day, but he's looking pretty solid so far. It wasn't a great day for me at all with only the Niemiec match-bet winning thanks to Nieve's disappearing act, very disappointing that he didn't even feature considering he was targeting the stage. Quintana crashing out also burned a few of the ante-post bets and there's little value now in trying to guess what's going to happen in the GC next.. will Contador hang on? Will Rodriguez/Valverde gang up on him? Will the likes of Uran or Aru sneak up and pass them all? Who knows, it's been a pretty wild and unpredictable race so far.

The Route

This looks like another penalty kick for Nacer Bouhanni and there isn't much to say about the route. I said above it is unusual for a Grand Tour, but in fact in 2012 there was an almost identical stage to this one around Logroño, just slightly longer at 172kms. On that day, John Degenkolb took the honours from Bennati (riding for Radioshack-Leopard at the time) and Meersman, with Bouhanni in 4th, Viviani in 5th and Mondory in 8th place. 

It was a brilliant sprint from Degenkolb, his surge in the last 50m was stunning to catch Bennati on the line. What you can see from the video below is that the finishing circuit is extremely fast - 60kmph average for the last 2-3kms, so it is imperative to get in a good position a long way out. If you are caught a long way back it is almost impossible to move up in the last 2kms. What the video also shows is that it is a mixture of narrow roads, wide roads, straight stretches and tricky bends with plenty of street furniture. 

Contenders and Favourites

Well done to Paddy Power again for pricing up a stage like this more than a day ahead of the stage - there is no reason why any of the other bookies couldn't do the same. It's going to be a sprint finish, it could be in one day or ten days, the probabilities and odds are not going to change much for those who are going to be involved at the finish, barring accidents or abandonments on stage 11. And if there are, you just void the bets on them and apply a rule 4 if they are significant withdrawals. 

The prices they have come out with though don't really make much appeal! This looks like an easy opportunity for Nacer Bouhanni to land the hat-trick you'd think, but he is accordingly very short at just 8/13. Unless I win a fortune on stage 11 I don't think I'll be playing much at those odds! We might get better on Betfair and if he appears around 4/5 anywhere I'd snap it up. *Edit - he has now been priced up at a more realistic 11/12 with 888Sport, even if it is a price I don't think I have ever backed anything with at a bookies before! It's even better on Betfair though with 11/10 available and I think that's worth a bet. 

John Degenkolb is just 4/1 to repeat his victory from 2 years ago, and on the face of that performance you'd have to say that has to be the bet, but Bouhanni has improved dramatically since his 4th place showing that day and is clearly going better than Deggers this year at the Vuelta. He is likely to take a top 3 place though, so if you fancy a relatively safe punt at him maybe turning the tables on Bouhanni, you could back him each-way to get your stake back if he places and 4/1 if he wins it.. 

There is a jump to 9/1 (now 10/1) then for Michael Matthews and on the face of his sprint on stage 8 to Albacete you'd have to think that's a far better value bet than Deggers at 4/1. He was flying at the finish and almost caught Bouhanni, the little flick by Bouhanni just distracted him as he was about to catch him. I think Bouhanni probably thought it was Deggers coming up beside him and tried to get revenge for the previous sprint when he got irked about being 'squeezed' (he wasn't) but also, I don't think Matthews would have got up, the line came too soon. With the battle for the Sprinters jersey still wide open I think Matthews will be going all out for the stage win or a top 3 at worst and I think the 9/1 is the bet each-way here.

Peter Sagan is 16/1 (18/1 now) and he got involved for the first time in a sprint on Stage 8 where he managed to outsprint Degenkolb for 3rd place! It was a messy finish with the splits and everything and I think Sagan was just in the right place at the right time for once and I'm not sure he'll be involved at the pointy end again this time. Guardini, Boonen and Debusschere will not be involved I think so I'm not touching them, but Roberto Ferrari at 40/1 could go close again. I tipped him each-way for stage 8, he finished close, but not close enough in 8th place! 

Or what about someone like Tony Martin soloing away in the closing stages? He is now in top gear with the TT win showing he is in great shape, and now that's out the way the pressure is off to go stage hunting! This may not be the stage for him, but I think at some point before the Vuelta is over we'll see Tony on the attack again. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Michael Matthews at 9/1 with PP

0.3pts each-way at 40/1 on Roberto Ferrari with PP 

3pts win on Nacer Bouhanni at 11/10 on Betfair

Match Bets 

Ferrari to beat Debusschere - 1pt at 8/11

Matthews to beat Guardini - 3pts at 4/6

Reynes to beat Guarnieri - 3.3pts at 10/11

Tony Martin to beat Cancellara - Martin should be leading out Boonen and should finish higher up than Cancellara who seems to have done his TT training and may well be just minding himself for the rest of this race.. 2pts at 5/6

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