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Published on Saturday, 16 July 2016 22:12

TDF Stage 15

Bourg-en-Bresse to Culoz

Sunday 17th July, 160kms 

The race moves in to the Jura Massif on the east of France and the western fringes of the Alps with a challenging stage with barely a flat kilometre of road and 10 climbs squeezed in to just 160kms with a relentless series of peaks. 

Less said about today the better. Kittel just looks a shadow of his former self in this race and has been getting worse as the race has gone on. He once again started way too far out, let sprinting in the wind by his team-mates, and once again Cav sat in his slipstream and came out at the right time to comfortably take his fourth stage win of the race. Cav was brilliant again, I hope some of you took that 4/1 each-way with Paddy Power, I really should have recommended it, he's head and shoulders above the others at the moment. 

There was the suggestion for a while that Cav might be in trouble for deviating off his line and almost clipping Kittlel, Kittel threw his arms up in the air in a strop but I think that was more out of frustration that he was easily beaten again, and not only beaten but he wouldn't have even finished in the top 3 regardless of Cavs move. It was a very impressive sprint by Kristoff too, I'm also regretting not backing him each-way again but I thought 7/1 was a bit short. Sagan absolutely flew home again and took 3rd, just denying John Degenkolb a podium place, which would have been fantastic to see. 

Greipel and Coquard were disappointing again, filling 6th and 7th place, Laporte took 9th and Sam Dumoulin on his old training roads got up for 10th. But what about Sam Bennett?? He was right there in the mix coming to the last 2kms, was on Degenkolb's wheel in about 8th place in the last kilometre, but he suddenly got shouldered out of it by Kristoff or one of his leadout men, and he suddenly seemed to lose all momentum, almost as if he dropped his chain or something. He still held on for 12th place, a fantastic result considering what he has been through. Could be more to come from him yet in this race. 

The race culminates in the Grand Colombier twins, the Haute Category Grand Colombier and the Category 1 Lacets du Grand Colombier which follows just 23kms later. According to Thierry Gouvenou, the race director, 

"The Grand Colombier hairpins are tough enough to make the whole race explode, which'll result in a nervy day."

The stage takes place entirely in the Ain region and although they officially go over 6 climbs, there are plenty more uncategorised climbs and hills that will make this a very hard day. Once over the Grand Colombier they descend down to Culoz and pass through the finish line before heading out to tackle the spectacular Lacets du Grand Colombier, a little like the lacets du Montvernier from last year's Tour, the road winds its way up the side of the mountain for 8.4kms, then plunges back down towards Culoz with an 8.5km run on flat roads to the finish. 

The Route

They zig-zag their way south-east from  Bourg-en-Bresse to Culoz and after just 17kms they'll already have gone over three little climbs, then start on the Cat 1 Col du Berthland, a 6km tester to start things off at a tough 8.1% average. Over the next 77kms they go over plenty of lumps and bumps, it's just one hill after another. With 100kms gone they start on the biggest climb of the day, the Grand Colombier, a Haute Category climb averaging 6.8% for 12.8kms. At the top there are just 47kms to go, of which 15kms are descending off the Grand Colombier. 

As they descend off the Grand Colombier they joing the final circuit with 38kms to go and pass over some roads they'll be riding along later in the stage, through Bezonne and Anglefort. After a short run along the flat and a pass through the finish line in Culoz they start the loop that takes them up back the Lacets du Grand Colombier with 23kms to go.

The Lacets go straight up the side of the mountain, winding their way up one of the descents off the Grand Colombier, and at first coming out of Culoz the road is wide and well paved with long straight stretches. When they pass the little vineyard of the Domaine du Cellier de Bel Air the road suddenly starts to narrow and become not much more than a one lane farm road, and also gets a lot steeper around here as it winds its way up the mountain through a series of hairpins.

The road continues to rise up through spectacular countryside, along cut-out roads on the side of the mountain and the view back down to the valley is stunning (Above). With 14kms to go they meet the fork in the road which was the entrance to the circuit first time along, and they start to descend back through Bezonne and Anglefort and Champriond where they run alongside the Rhone on the way back in to Culoz for the finish, with a completely flat last 3kms.

Contenders and Favourites

It's hard to believe we are on stage 15 already, and it's also a bit strange to see that Monday isn't actually a rest day, like normal, but instead the rest day is on Tuesday, just before they tackle the crucial last four stages. Saturday's stage was a snoozefest though, almost like a 200km rest day, so a lot of riders will have used the day to recover, recuperate and maybe chat with some potential allies for the big break today. Plots will have been schemed and riders will be ready to go on a stage that looks perfect for the breakaway.

It's a short stage at just 160kms so it should be action-packed. The first 20 minutes of the stage should be absolutely frantic as riders try to get in the break before the first climb of the day which comes after just 17kms. The Col Du Berthiand is a nasty one to start the day with too, 6kms at 8.1%. It should see a strong break go, but also possibly a second wave of attacks on the climb itself as some try to bridge. I am keen on looking at a few break candidates to scatter around, but the prices are pretty awful, looks like everyone wants to be on someone for the break tomorrow and the bookies aren't taking any chances. 

And it really is a lottery tomorrow - there are literally a hundred guys who could try to get away tomorrow. And some are ridiculously short prices. I was thinking Rui Costa might be one for this stage, the early climbs are not too difficult, the Grand Colombier will probably be taken at a relatively stable pace and the final climb of the lacets will be right on his limit, but the rest of the break will be pretty shattered too. If he hangs in there untll the finish he'd have one of the better sprints to take the win.

He came very close on the stage to Andorra Arcalis won by Dumoulin, taking 2nd ahead of Majka, he made a bad mistake to let Dumoulin go though, he could have stayed with him I think to the finish if he'd not let him jump away. But 12/1?!  It's ridiculously short, he should be about 33/1, but at least if you back him with PP who are paying 5 places, then at least if he gets dropped or outsprinted by some stronger guys he might still take a top 5 placing. 

Rafal Majka will of course try to get away to steal KOM points, Thomas de Gendt has taken a 13pt lead in the KOM competition and we may even see both of them up the road in their own personal battle. Majka did get quite a smack off the road when he crashed a few days ago, he might be hurting from that still though, something to bear in mind. Costa is not far off in the KOM competition too, he's on 50pts, De Gendt has 90pts. Majka could go well on a stage like this, but it would probably suit him better if it finished on the top of the lacets rather than 15kms from the top of the climb and with a flat finish. De Gendt may go too but he had a tough day in the saddle on Thursday and may struggle towards the end of the stage, maybe after taking the points at the top of the Grand Colombier. 

Vincenzo Nibali is also only 12/1 and of course he'll have his backers tomorrow - a day of not overly difficult climbing until the Grand Colombier, a climb he should be able to hold his own on with second division climbers, and then an opportunity to attack away on the ascent, or the descent of the Lacets. He has looked like he is just doing his own thing in this race and justifiably so, Aru has clearly let down his supporters with a well below-par performance so far. 

Ilnur Zakarin is probably far enough down on the GC now to try something in the break, and this is a stage that should suit him. He did a good TT on Friday, finishing 19th, ahead of Quintana, Porte and Cancellara and we may see him try to get in this break. 18/1 with Paddies paying 5 might be ok. Jarlinson Pantano was on the attack on Thursday too but couldn't stay with Dumoulin, he struggled towards the end. He could try again and if he does get in the break and manages to go to the line with a small group then he would have a chance with his sprint. 

Diego Rosa has been riding well for Astana, but not only that, he seems to be the only one so far out of Fulglsang, Kangert, and most of the Astana team to actually go on the attack and try something. He was right there and looking strong on Thursday heading to Andorra, and suddenly he just disappeared. I'm not sure what happened to him, I didn't hear if he had a mechanical or what but he seemed to just completely disappear. He might try again and he looks a big price compared to some of those mentioned above at 66/1 with Ladbrokes. Serge Pauwels was on the attack on Ventoux, he looked stronger than De Gendt at one point but then he was outsprinted by the wily TDG at the finish. He could try again too. 

Ruben Plaza hasn't had his traditional long range attack yet in this Tour, but he tends to get stronger as races go on, this looks like a good stage for him to finally get up the road. He did a pretty good TT, something that I am looking upon as a good reflection of who is still feeling strong and who isn't. He finished in 26th ahead of Bardet, Martin and Aru. If he can get away he would have a good chance, and at 125/1 he's worth a small bet. 

Alexis Vuillermoz is another who could go well today, he has tried a few breaks but hasn't had much success so far, he could try to get away again in this stage and would be suited to the last sections of the Lacets, he may even be able to attack away at the top. Also, if he doesn't and it comes to a reduced group sprint, he'd have a chance. 

I was going to suggest the likes of Eduardo Sepulveda, Mikael Cherel, Markel Irizar, Winner Anacona and Arnold Jeanneson, but they all did pretty poor TTs and that is putting me off them. Frank Schleck, Antoine Duchesne, Paul Voss, Alberto Losada - the list just goes on of possibilities. But that's it for my break analysis for now, what about if the break doesn't make it? 

Well, I give the break about a 60-70% chance of making it tomorrow, who is going to want to chase it down? If it is a big break goes of 15-20 riders, then most teams will be represented. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Sky put Landa or Poels or someone like that in the break just so they don't have to chase so much. Even if they don't have someone in there, and if there are no dangers to the GC then it's unlikely they will push very hard. Froome would like a steady pace for most of the day and then see if he can fight off all comers on the last two climbs should the attacks come. 

BMC might chase, as they might want to try to a 1-2 punch with Porte and TVG, the Lacets look a good sort of climb for Porte, he could well try an attack - he was flying on Venoux and looked to possibly be starting to stretch Froome a little bit when he had his unfortunate run in with the motorbike. He didn't to a brilliant TT though, but this could be an opportunity for him to try to claim back some time. 

Movistar might chase as they are going to have to try to do something to get Quintana back in the race, but at the same time, this finish won't suit him with a 15km run to the finish from the top of the Lacets. Unless they manage to put Froome under enough pressure that he cracks and a small group rides away from him. But that's unlikely to happen. If the GC men do catch the break on the final climb though, and a group goes to the line together, then Alejandro Valverde would have a big chance then too of course, he would win a sprint amongst most GC men. 

Dan Martin was under pressure unexpectedly on Ventoux, he seemed to be going so well in this Tour, then bang, he gets dropped on a climb that wasn't even all that difficult. Can he recover and try to attack tomorrow? It's a climb that should normally suit him and he is a very good descender so could hold it to the line. That's a long shot though I think. 

And Chris Froome - it looks like he can do anything these days, attacking on the way up, attacking on the way down, attacking on the flat. He just seems to be so strong, has he any weaknesses this year? Will he start to run out of gas at some point? Well if he's going to, it doesn't look like it will be any time soon, he did a superb TT to destroy all his GC rivals and he'll be full of confidence at the moment.. But I don't think this is a stage that he'll go all out on again. It could be just a waste of energy to try attacking on the Lacets as there is the long run in to the finish. But you'd never know, he has done it before!

Bauke Mollema is also looking superb at the moment, let's hope he keeps it up through the last week and can mount a strong challenge to Froome to make a race of it. He could try attacking tomorrow too, Froome can't cover every move, and he might just get away. Adam Yates is riding so well at the moment too, it was overlooked somewhat in the choas of Ventoux that he led the remains of the GC group with Quintana, Bardet and Aru. I don't think it's a perfectly suitable finish for him, but if it comes to a sprint finish amongst GC men, he could land a top 5 place. 

A ridiculously difficult stage to predict though and it may be that we watch it in-play opportunities too if it looks like the GC men might catch the break. As it is though, I think the break has a chance of making it and am scattering some bets around on long and not so long shots to see if we can get some of them in the break. 

Recommendations:

0.2pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 125/1 with Sportingbet

0.2pts each-way on Diego Rosa at 50/1 with PP paying 5 places

0.4pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 33/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places

0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 12/1 with PP paying 5 places

0.3pts each-way on Ilnur Zakarin at 18/1 with PP

Matchbets:

Dan Martin to beat Meintjes - 2pts at 5/6

Adam Yates to beat Aru - 2pts at 4/6

Zakarin to beat Pantano, Costa to beat De Gendt, Henao to beat Moreno - 2pts on the treble at 15/8, all with Bet365

Zakarin to beat Pantano - 3pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes