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Published on Saturday, 06 September 2014 22:06

Vuelta a España St. 15

Oviedo to Lagos De Covadonga

Sunday September 7th, 152.2kms 

A short stage, a pretty sedate stage, but one with a nasty sting in the tail on the climb up to the Cavadonga Lakes. This stage will really only become interesting you would think with about 40kms to go as they turn right in off the coast and head towards the hills. But with some 75kms along the coastline there is the possibility of echelons and splits to keep things interesting. 

So the break made it today, I had Niemiec in it to give a bit of excitement and he was one of the first to fold. Even more disappointment from a rider a lot was expected of. Louis Meintjes decided to tease me today by being in the final selection, it looked guaranteed that he was going to win to annoy me for not picking him at 66/1.

In the end it looked like Oliver Zaugg was going to get a rare win but Hesjedal really motored (get it?!) up the climb to pass him in the run in and take an important stage for Garmin. Typical isn't it - I picked him out yesterday as one who could go on the attack to prove that he can win without a motor, he only goes and does it today.. It was a brilliant ride from him and a brilliant way to silience the critics. 

Behind Chris Froome justified my tag as a dark horse for the stage, 'winning' the race amongst the favourites as he recovered once again magnificently to spin his way to the front and drop all the other main protagonists in a stunning display of spinning legs. It was a shot across the bows of Contador though as if he carries that sort of form in to the longer climbs of the coming days he could easily take back the 1'13" he is behind him, especially with a TT to come too.. He is now in to 3/1 from 10/1 (after hitting 100/1 a few days ago!) and could be the biggest danger to what looks like a tiring Contador and Valverde. Contador is back out to 1.6 from 1.3 and I wouldn't be backing him at that price..

No luck on the stage result today but once again we landed 100% on the three match bets to net a small profit on the day. Tomorrow's stage is going to be another crucial GC battle - this final climb is a brute - 12kms at an average of 7.2% with one final kick at the end for the last 200m at 17.5%. It's unlikely we'll see a sprint between a small group at the finish, I think it will be a solo winner, be it from a break or a GC man leaving the rest behind.  

The Route

Th. 

Contenders and Favourites

This will be a hard stage to work out whether a break will make it or not - Sky will now be going full gas for Froome as he could take 20-30" off Contador tomorrow and if he wins the stage, another 10" bonus, or maybe less if Contador chases him home to take the 2nd place bonus. I didn't think I'd be tipping Chris Froome up 3 or 4 days ago, but I really think he is coming in to good form and as I suspected, is going forward as others are going backward. 

This long climb will suit him a lot more judging by the way he has been climbing for the last few mountain stages, he is riding like a metronome to the power meter. It's a shame he rode so well today though because he has killed his price for tomorrow, I was hoping of being able to back him for this stage at double digit prices like he was today, instead he has opened the joint 4/1 favourite!!

I still think he is worth backing at that though. He kicked today, got a gap, they tried to come back to him in the last 200m and he kicked again - exactly what he needs to do tomorrow.. get them all 'on the rivet' as Séan says, 4kms or so out in the 10% sections, recover a bit on the downhill, to the 3km mark, kick again to go away from them inside the last 3kms, and again up the last 17% gradients. 

The other reasons I want to back him though is because I think the others are starting to struggle. Contador tried today, was easily pulled in and dropped on the run to the line. Rodriguez didn't really try anything, bar chasing down everyone and going after Froome on the run to the line and when Froome kicked again he easily distanced him again. Valverde is cracking and I think he will struggle again tomorrow and is poor value at 9/1. Froome, Contador and Rodriguez are all available at 4/1 and I really think Froome is the most likely winner out of the three of them. Bet365 have just gone 9/2 as I write this and that is my bet for this stage. 

Fabio Aru and Dan Martin rode great, brave races but were found wanting when the Froomedog accelerated.. It is not as brutal tomorrow and they may be close at the finish tomorrow. Dan Martin finished strongly today and could be fnding better legs finally, but again he lacked the kick and the power. As a result of their rides they both moved up one place on the GC to 6th and 10th - Dan Martin sneaking in to the top 10. It is very possible that he can pass Anacona, Gesink and maybe even Sammy Sanchez to move up to 7th in the coming days.

We could get a break tomorrow but I think Sky smell blood now and will be on the front all day tomorrow. They may get help from Garmin now that Hesjedal has got his stage win, he should be all about moving Dan up on the GC and maybe getting him in position for a shot at the stage win too. He will be feeling it after today's ride but then again so will most of the guys at the front of the race, It was a brutal stage today. Kathusha should help too as Rodriguez should also smell blood with Valverde looking vulnerable now, he must fancy his chances of moving up another place and in to the top three. 

Unless the break does stay away, I think this will be a battle between the top 10 in the GC again and maybe actually only between 5 or 6 of them as Anacona and Sanchez seem to be going backward again. I'm not really interested in trying to guess who's going to be in the break today - I can't imagine a lot of people would have had Zaugg or Erviti on their each-way betting slips this morning. Froomedog to set the washing machine to spin cycle and zoom away from them at the finish. 

The good news today for our 25/1 on Degenkolb for the points jersey was the abandonment of Bouhanni coupled with none of the GC men scoring points at the finish today. He is 36pts clear now with two very winnable stages on 17 and 19 yet to come with Sagan and Bouhanni out of the way.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Chris Froome at 9/2 with Bet365.

Match Bets 

1pt on Dan Martin to beat Alejandro Valverde at 3/1 with Bet365

1.8pts on Gesink to beat Sanchez at 5/6 with Bet365

1pt on Kelderman to beat Nieve at 5/6 with Bet365 (Nieve should burn himself out for Froome tomorrow) 

1pt on Chaves to beat Anacona at 5/6 with Bet365 

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