Stage 2

Stage 2

Monday 8th September

Knowsley to Llandudno, 200.8kms

Finally they get out on proper roads after that boring 100km crit around Liverpool when they head west and in to Wales, finishing in Llandudno on the 2nd longest stage of the week at 200.8kms. There are quite a few lumps to get over along the way and it's possible we will see a reduced bunch fight out the finish. I say boring, but at least the result was the right one with Kittel landing the 11/10 bet for us. Sam Bennett seemed to be ideally positioned and then 

They head south through Chester until the reach Wrexham at the 100km mark where they then take a right turn and start heading north-west towards St Asaph. There are three climbs to get over in the last 65kms, starting with Glascoed first after 138kms,  Then a little dip down towards Llanrwst and the highest point of the day at Ty Gwen before the run to home which takes them out on the Marine Drive, Great Orme for a final little climbing test before a fast descent in to the finish in Llandudno. 

The Great Orme is not a very hard climb as they only rise 100m, but it is sharp and will really hurt after nearly 200kms. It will probably take the likes of Cav and Kittel out of the equation for the finish so it may be that we will not see their team's chasing to reel in the break of the day.

If Kittel and Cav are not there at the finish, who can take the reduced sprint? You'd have to fancy the likes of Ben Swift, Kwiatkowski, Bennett, Colbrelli, Blythe and Chavanel to be still there at the finish. Sure enough, when the prices came out just now Swift is the 9/2 favourite (too short for me). Sylvain Chavanel is interesting at 12/1 as is Nordhaug at 20/1 with Bet365, he's only 9/1 with PP. Michal Kwiatkowski is a ridiculous 6/1 with Will Hill but a more realistic 16/1 with 365. It looks like there will be a flurry of attacks on the Great Orme and it just depends on how many can go with the attackers as to whether it will be a solo win, a very small group of 4 or 5 or a small bunch sprint. 

I think it will come down to a small bunch sprint of maybe 20-30 guys and I would expect all of those named above to be there. Chavanel will probably be one of the instigators of the attacks given his form and the terrain and I'm tempted by the 12/1 for sure. I also think Swift might fail to deliver again, it wouldn't be the first time this year. Kwitakowski could well be one to go with him and he's one to consider also. 

Cavendish is 10/1 with Will Hill but 25/1 with PP and even if he was 50/1 I wouldn't back him for tomorrow - he'd struggle to get to the finish with the front group normally, but the fact he hit a car today and injured his leg means he's a no bet for me. Giovanni Visconti could go well on a finish like this but it's hard to know his motivation or interest. Heinrich Haussler won a stage in the Bayern Rundfart over a similar distance and course, beating Hutarovich with Bennett in 4th place and he almost won that stage in the TDF when they caught Jack Bauer on the line. The 14/1 with Bet365 might be worth an each-way bet, he warmed up with an 8th place today in the sprint in Liverpool.

This sort of finish will also suit Sam Bennett who I've been told definitely fancies a couple of stages this week. He should be able to get over the Great Orme with the front group and would probably be one of the best sprinters left. He's worth another chance tomorrow at 18/1.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Heinrich Haussler at 14/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 18/1 with William Hill.

 

 

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Stage 3

Stage 3

Tuesday 9th September

Newtown to The Tumble, 179.9kms

Close but no cigar today with Sam Bennett taking 3rd on the stage behind the surprise winner Renshaw and Ben Swift who came close to justifying favouritism but just came up short. As expected though Cav and Kittel were nowhere near at the finish with the Great Orme taking them out of the equation.

Stage 3 will be an interesting stage and we should see the first time gaps on the GC with the finish up the Tumble. The climbing starts early with the road rising upwards from the flag drop for the first 8kms to the 2nd Cat climb to Dolfor. From there it is downhill most of the way to Monmouth, but on the way they climb over two Cat 3 climbs at Knighton and Beggar's Bush. Three intermediate sprints come in quick succession then atfer 80, 115 and 138kms before they arrive at the foot of the Tumble.

This is a proper climb - long, steep at the bottom moving on to a more steady gradient nearer the top with open, exposed, sheep-lined roads near the top. They climb 432m in 6kms, making it an average gradient of 7.2%, a proper climb! The steepest parts are in the opening 2kms with one long straight stretch in particular where we should see things break apart. 

Nico Roche has been installed as the 4/1 favourite and I don't know what to make of that.. As much as I'd like to see him win tomorrow and possibly set up a tilt at the GC victory, he apparently is feeling the effects of the hard season he has had so far, but at the same time there are not a lot of guys with his climbing powers over a climb like this. I can't see many being in the peloton just a few kms in to the climb but he should be there. Can he ride away and take the stage victory? Possibly, he did it in the Route du Sud on a similar sort of climb. But his price is too short for me to really want to get involved. 

Michal Kwiatkowski is a similar price around 4/1 and again I think he should be there at the finish. We have seen though plenty of times that he struggles on long hard climbs, and although this isn't too long, 7.2% is still pretty steep, especially with parts in the double digits along the way. He tends to fade on the climbs in stage races, but this is only the third stage so he might be involved. Francesco Manuelo Bongiorno is a quality climber who has had a number of good results this season and of course came close to winning the stage on the Zoncolan before he was pushed off by the moron fan. Bardiani are always agressive and could have a few riders to help him on the climb tomorrow. He tends to just fall short of victory all the time though so I'm going to leave him. 

Brad Wiggins though is a Tour de France winner and top class on his day. He is always switched on and trying hard when in the UK and wants to win this race - if he does, he needs to do well tomorrow. If he loses more than 15-20" tomorrow it could be all over as there won't be big gaps on Sunday's TT. He is looking comfortable and is reportedly in great shape so we could well see him in the front of the pack tomorrow. Ian Stannard is a big loss but with Bernie Eisel, Henao and Lopez, Sky have come here with a squad capable of ripping things apart tomorrow on this to set up Wiggins. At 20/1 with Bet365, he is worth an each-way shot, it's too big.. he's only 6/1 with Paddy Power. 

Leopold Konig and Ion Izagirre should be capable of being close to the front in the closing stages here and Konig in particular is very strong for the slightly easier finish. 8th on La Planche and Hautacam stages and 7th overall in the TDF he could well podium tomorrow and he is backable with Ladbrokes at 10/1 each-way.

Recommendations:

0.75pts each-way on Bradley Wiggins at 20/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way at 10/1 on Leopold Konig at 10/1 with Ladbrokes

 

 

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Stage 4

Stage 4

Wednesday 10th September

Worcester to Bristol, 184.6kms

Stage 3 takes them south and back in to England with a finish in Bristol, passing through Cheltenham and Stroud on the way. It's another lumpy up and down day which finishes with an uphill kick in Bristol. There's a KOM just 2kms from home so it'll be interesting to see if we get two finishes here, one with the KOM challengers and shortly after for the stage win. 

Again, they start climbing after just 10kms or so as they tackle the Cat 2 Wyche Cutting, then there are two Sprints in quick succession in Evesham and Broadway, the sprint at Broadway coming while they are already on the climb to the Cat 3 summit at Snowshill. As they gallop through the Cotswolds and past Cheltenham they crest three more hills, which are uncategorised before arriving in to Bristol and hitting the 1km at 10% test at Bridge Valley Road. It does ease off a little on the run to the line, so if some of the punchier sprinters can hang in there it could still end in a reduced bunch sprint. 

Zardini pulled off a bit of a surprise today, outlasting Roche who made a brilliant, valiant effort but as I warned, isn't quite 100% at the moment and unfortunately faded at the end to be passed by Kwiatkowski. Brad Wiggins looked to be struggling but still rode well to limit his losses to just 14" and finished only two places off the podium in 5th place. Konig was a bit disappointing, not being able to go with the moves by Roche and, Zardini and co. when he really should have if he fancied the stage and the overall win here. He finished 2" further back in 10th place. Kwitakowski is now the evens favourite for the overall though after stealing time today with Wiggins 4/1, Zardini 7/1 and Roche 9/1. It's going to be interesting to see what sort of time gaps appear tomorrow and if some of those down the GC can grab some time back. 

Kwiatkowski has been active over the last two days, stretching his legs and testing the bunch on the descent off the Great Orme and then today looking one of the strongest, and significantly for tomorrow's finish, one with plenty left at the top of the climb to be able to catch and leave Roche behind. If he can get up in the front 10 or so tomorrow he will certainly be one of the favourites to take the stage as he has a powerful finishing kick on him. 

Nico Roche could be up there too but the difference is he doesn't have a finishing kick. Ben Swift could be up there, but can he be close enough to the front to use his sprint to win? Sam Bennett almost won up the hill to Kendal last year, only being passed by Ciolek in the last few metres, but then held on to the main GC men up Cearphilly Mountain to take a brilliant win on stage 5. He finished 3rd last today 11'15" down so he obviously took it easy up the Tumble after doing some work for Konig. There's no decent prices any more though on Bennett, only 8/1 with Bet365 and a bit bigger with PP at 11/1. Not sure I want to be taking that sort of price on him yet..

I think Chavanel will try but will not have the explosive kick to get away, Giovanni Visconti didn't have the legs to go with the attacks today, but over a shorter climb like this he could well do a lot better. And so on. Plenty could be involved, or in fact, very few could be.. I have a feeling that a break could make it today.. a day after the tough Queen stage we may see the GC guys settle down a little bit and a break could have a chance to stick. This is an up and down day that could see a break build up a big lead. 

The terrain will suit some of the local riders and we will probably see the likes of McNally, Ian Bibby, Sam Harrison and maybe Kristian House who said tonight that he would be looking to get in the break tomorrow as he also thinks it could stay away. Niki Terpstra could like tomorrow's rolling course, he could be baby sitting Kwiatkowski, but they might send him up the road to let OPQS have an easier day. Adam Blythe lost 7mins today so might be let go in the break tomorrow but can he win on that final hill? Possibly not. Linus Gerdeman, Bialablocki, Yanto Barker, Jerome Pineau - all could be in the break.. It's very hard to call this stage so I think I'll just hold back tomorrow and just have a few small bets for interest. If the peloton does contest it I fancy Kwiatkowski to sprint to victory (or Sam Bennet! Edit: 09.30).

Recommendations:

0.5pts win on Niki Terpstra 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts win on Jerome Pineau at 22/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Michal Kwiatkowski at 7/2 with PP

I couldn't help myself, this morning Coral's were 14/1 on Sam Bennett and I took 0.5pts each-way on him as I think the finish suits him too and I'd be kicking myself if he wins and I hadn't backed him. 14/1 is more accpetable. 

 

 

Stage 5

Stage 5

Thursday 11th September

Exmouth to Exeter, 177.3kms

The start and finish of this stage are really close to each other but in between they go off on a 177km trip around the Dartmoor National Park. It's got its fair share of rolling hills along the way, including the Cat 2 climb up to Mamhead after just 30 kms,  followed by the Cat 1 climb up to Haytor after just 50kms. 

Haytor was of course the scene of Simon Yates career changing victory last year, his victory ahead of Wiggins and Quintana sealing the contract with Orica Green Edge.  It was a completely different ascent of it last year though being the summit finish and it'll be interesting to see how they tackle it this year with 107km or so still to run.

The GC teams may look to split things and reduce the peloton, but it's not long enough to really create big gaps so they would need to drive hard for the rest of the day to hold the gains, and I'm not sure they'll want to do that. After Haytor they continue climbing to the highest point on the day, which is more or less the turning point to send them back downhill and towards the finish in Exeter.

Before they get to the finish though they have one more lump to get over though, Stoke Hill, the top of which comes just 2kms from the finish. 1.9kms at 6.7%, will it be enough to decide a solo winner of the stage or will we see a reduced bunch sprint?

It was a good result today with Kwiatkowski coming from way back to zoom past them all exactly as I thought he would - that finishing kick has been there for two previous stages, he just needed to be in the right place this time, which he was. Adding Bennett wasn't a great move, but we still ended up with 1.8pts profit to take on to stage 5.

There is a right mix at the top of the betting for this stage with the bookies, with Swift (a punchy sprinter), Kwiatkowski (a punchy sprinter), Cavendish (flat sprinter), Chavanel (punchy attacker), Battaglin (climber) and Roche (puncheur) the top 6. So which way it is going to go? The finishes have been chaotic and all over the place with few teams able to take control, they have been a real free-for-all.. It has made for exciting viewing as leadership changes hands repeatedly in the closing stages.Could it be the same tomorrow? 

Nico Roche is going to keep attacking all the way to the TT on Sunday, he wants to build his fitness again ahead of the World's, and it is within his capabilities to take a stage win before Sunday. He has been super aggressive but so far has just come up short but this finish is his kind of slope and much shorter at just 1.9kms. Manuele Boaro has been all over the race this week and he and Chris Juul-Jensen could drill it in to the bottom of the climb and let him fly off half way up it. He might be able to get the gap, but can he hold it on the 2km run in? That's his problem, he tends to fade after making the big initial effort. 

I can't see Cav being there at the finish so forget about him at the silly price of 10/1. Swift is way too short at 4/1, he came very close on stage 2 in LLandudno, just being foiled by Mark Renshaw, but he disappointed as a favourite yet again and this could be the case again tomorrow, I'm not interested in the 4/1.

Chavanel promised so much coming in to the race and although we've seen him near the front, we have yet to really see him make a big effort.. If he still thinks he can win this race he is running out of stages in which to pull back some time! He's 45" back, but a 10" win and a 10" bonus will bring him a lot closer to a podium chance. He is the kind of rider who if he gets a gap can hold or even extend it over the last 2kms, he is time trialling really well and it would be a flat out 2km TT for him! He has a chance tomorrow but I'd like to have seen more from him up to now to really commit.

I'm trying to get to the bottom of what happened Bennett today, not sure why he lost over 6 minutes when it looked like it would be a stage for him, but that final climb was a lot harder than many people expected I think. He is only around 12/1 for tomorrow and I don't think that's for me this time.

Kwiatkowski to me looks the most obvious winner yet again here though, he may lose a little bit of ground on the climb, but come flying past in the run to the line. He is looking very strong and very fast and I wouldn't put it past him to take two in a row. The other guys are going to have to attack him hard on the hill in order to get enough of a gap to hold him off, but I'm not sure that's going to happen.

Dylan Teuns has been a revelation in the race, the young (22yr old) Stagiare has only been with BMC since the start of August but has now had a 3rd and a 4th and sits in 3rd overall in the GC! But it's not like this was a major shock though if you look at his palmares, he won several races this year, including a stage in the recent Tour de l'Avenir, won the young riders competition at the Tour of Utah and finished 2nd in the Omloop het Nieuwsblad Espoire earlier this year. The way he has been riding could well see him crest this climb with the front group and edge a podium place again.. at 33/1 the answer my friends, is blowing in the wind, the answer is blowing in the wind..

Jack Bauer has also been very aggressive and almost made it count today, finishing in 4th place. He sits in 13th place on the GC and I'm sure he'd love to move up in to the top 10, he's 14" off from doing so. This sort of climb is up his street too and he also has the power to maybe hold it to the line, maybe this time, unlike in the Tour he won't get mugged 50m from the line. He is 25/1 with Ladbrokes (shouldn't that be 24?) and he may go close tomorrow too. 

Rick Zabel, Colbrelli, Izagirre, Konig could also be involved again, as could Peter Velits at a big looking 100/1 but I think it will be pretty scattered tomorrow and every man for himself, which could result in a surprise winner. Maybe that surprise might be our boy Bob Dylan, or agent Jack Bauer. Or else Kwiatkowski sprints past them all again!

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Dylan Teuns at 33/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Jack Bauer at 25/1 with Boylesports who are paying 4 places

1.5pts win on Michal Kwiatkowski at 9/2 with Paddy Power.

 

Match Bets

Konig to beat Zardini - 1.2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

 

 

 

 

Stage 6

Stage 6

Friday 12th September 

Bath to Hemel Hempstead, 205.6kms

A longer stage at 205.6kms but an easier one in terms of climbing. After leaving the historical town of Bath they head north east towards Hemel Hempstead, crossing five counties along the way. As they get closer, the profile gets a little lumpier though with three Cat 2 climbs in the last 44kms as the ride over the Chiltern Hills in Buckinghamshire.

They may be Cat 2s but they aren't really difficult, each one only rising about 150m. The final categorised climb comes 14kms from the finish with the climb of Nashleigh in Chesham,  but there's another similar lump that they go over with just 5kms to go. From there though you'd expect them all (or most of them) to be there at the finish. It's a flat finish and you'd think one for the sprinters again? Maybe..

This has been a pretty interesting TOB from the point of view of how chaotic some of the finishes have been - no team is really able to take control. It could be the same tomorrow with that up and down run in to the finish. It was a surprise result today in that the break, which wasn't exactly made up of superstars, managed to make it all the way to the finish - but this was more down to the peloton again not really taking control and not reacting quick enough. I don't think we'll see the same tomorrow, the peloton will not let it happen two days in a row. 

The stage finish means that it is wide open with regards who could win this - I think it will be chaotic for the finale here, with riders attacking all over the place inside the last 40kms or so, the parcours is made for attacking. Looking at the prices it seems that the bookies are still slightly fancying a sprint, but they're not too sure - for example, Kittel and Cavendish are 8/1 joint second favourites.. these are big prices on these guys but to be honest I can't see them being at the finish, the lumpy parcours should definitely hurt Kittel, and Cav may struggle too. 

Ben Swift is the 4/1 favourite for the stage and if you look at the stage today, if he had been sprinting for the stage win for you if you'd backed him he'd have left you down again, finishing '2nd' to Colbrelli. He could be right at the front again tomorrow on the run in to Hemel, but I can't trust him at just 4/1. He is chasing the sprints jersey though and is just 3pts behind Kwiatkowski. Michal Kwiatkowski was '4th' today and is still looking very strong - this sort of course tomorrow should suit him well too and 8/1 looks tempting for an each-way bet.

Jack Bauer came close today in 10th and he should be active again tomorrow on the run in - 28/1 looks a nice price for an each-way shot, he seems to be trying hard at least and will give us a run for our money hopefully. Chavanel got closer too, finishing in 9th place and he HAS to make a move soon or this will have turned out to have been just a week's training ride for him. Surely he must give it a go at some point, especially considering the form he was in just last week. Is 16/1 worth a go?  

Sonny Colbrelli has been riding strongly with a 9th place and a 4th place and could well be right near the front again tomorrow. 5th in a stage in the Tour du Poitou Charentes with Chavanel back in 8th a few weeks back, he has had a number of excellent results this season, including 3rd in Roma Maxima. Bardiani are having a good TOB so confidence will be high in the camp. Zardini is still scrapping for the GC but he must know he's going to slide down the standings on Sunday and if they can take another stage win out of this race they'll be very happy indeed. 

Sam Bennett is sick as he explained in his stickybottle.com column, has had a sore throat and lack of power, he finished last on today's stage. He is probably just trying to get through these stages and hoping he recovers for the end of the race with Saturday's stage to Brighton and Sunday's sprint on the Mall in mind. No bet for tomorrow though until I hear he is feeling better. 

I want to pick a few British riders for the stage at bigger prices though as some will like this scrappy finish. Adam Blythe is one at 33/1 and Scott Thwaites might be given the protected rider status tomorrow as Bennett is not well and at 80/1 he might be worth a shot. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Colbrelli at 9/1 with Paddy Power

0.4pts each-way on Adam Blythe at 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way at 80/1 on Scott Thwaites at Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Jack Bauer at 28/1 with Bet365

 

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Stage 7

Stage 7

Saturday 13th September

Camberley to Brighton, 226.5kms

I didn't think it was possible but the peloton screwed up big time again today, but fair play to Dowsett, the guy was brilliant today. For a team that are normally so good at race reading and race tactics, Omega Pharma Quick Step were a little Slow Step today, leaving it far too late to take up the chase. To make it even more galling and frustrating, my main pick Sonny Colbrelli 'won' the bunch sprint for 4th place, I'd rather he finished in 50th!

Stage 7 sees them leave Camberley early in the morning.. too early as we are heading to the start and I have to be up too early on a Saturday morning.. They head south towards Brighton taking them over the South Downs and a run along the coast that takes them over Beachey Head and the two Cat 1 climbs of Ditchling Beacon and Bear Road as they head to the finish in Brighton. It's a very long stage at 225kms and has a Cat 2 and two Cat 1 climbs crammed in to 57kms. It's the stage a lot of the riders were fearing before hand and there could be bodies all over the road tomorrow given the hard day some of them had today (when they eventually did get racing..)

After Dowsett's cracking performance today he now holds a 34" lead over Kwiatkowski with Roche 50" off in 4th place. I think though that Dowsett has a real battle on his hands and he could find himself losing the lead again tomorrow.. Tinkoff-Saxo and OPQS are going to really make it hard tomorrow you'd think and Dowsett is surely going to feel today's efforts in his legs tomorrow, especially when they hit Ditchling Beacon with just under 17kms to go. 

Dowsett isn't renowned for his climbing legs but he has an ok Movistar team with him and he will of course have the extra power in the legs that the yellow jersey brings. I wouldn't be backing him at 4/6 though, I'd rather have a go at backing Kwiatkowski to take back the time tomorrow and win it at 11/4 with Corals. 

This stage is going to be devilishly difficult to decipher. A break will go and I would like to say that they won't make it tomorrow, but that's a dangerous game after two days like we've had. I think though it is going to be so hard and fast tomorrow, and with the 10" bonus possibly being so very important that the break will not make it. Instead I am going to focus on the men who have been prominent and those who have yet to hit the front proper - Kwiatkowski, Roche, Chavanel, Zardini, Colbrelli and Bauer. 

They have shown themselves to be some of the strongest and most ambitious in the race and I'm pretty sure that some or all of them will be at the front coming to Ditchling Beacon with 19kms to go and could form a select group of some 20 riders or less. Chavanel could finally get his chance to attack on Bear Road, and I think that he could be right up there at the front tomorrow and with Kwiatkowski possibly having to work really hard to get the gap he might be able to mug him. Kwiatkowski can't play games tomorrow, he has to just go for it, drop Dowsett, get a gap and keep pushing. And although he has been clearly the strongest on some of the stages, especially for his stage win on Stage 3, I think that the yellow jersey chase could jeopardise his chances of the stage win tomorrow. 

Roche could top 5 it I think depending on how many get away over the final climb of Bear Road, and he has vowed to continue attacking and chasing time. Bauer came home in the top 20 again today and continues to look strong, the approach to Brighton over Bear Road and the descent down to the seafront suits his style. He's very short at just 9/1 with 365 but twice that price with PP at 18/1 and that's worth an each-way shot I think. 

Finally, the Bardiani boys finished 4th and 5th today with Colbrelli beating Ruffoni, but Zardini wasn't far off either and has shown how strong his climbing is. It's a different finish today with the toughest climb still quite a distance from the finish but if he can go hard up Ditchling Beacon he could shed a lot of the potential rivals for Colbrelli, as long as Colbrelli can hang in there of course! If he comes to the finish with a small lead group he should finally get his victory. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sylvain Chavanel at 16/1 with Bet365

0.4pts each-way on Jack Bauer at 18/1 with PP

1pt win on Sonny Colbrelli at 20/1

1pt on Colbrelli to beat swift in a match bet at evens with Bet365 

 

 

 

Stage 8a and 8b

Stage 8

Sunday 14th September

The London Stage, 8km TT and 88km Circuit race

Hard to believe it but it happened again - another breakaway winner, this time it was Julien Vermote who missed his turn repeatedly in the break, probably playing the old 'I'm waiting for Kwiatkowski' card to his companions, before jumping away from them and soloing to victory. It was a remarkably strong performance to hold the gap like he did as the pack were chasing hard behind.

Unfortunately, too hard for Dowsett, and as I suspected he crumbled today on the tough climbs heading to Brighton. This race continues to surprise though, and although we didn't even see him crossing the line in 3rd and despite everyone assuming Kwiatkowski had taken the leaders jersey, Dylan Van Baarle emerged as the new leader of the race, leading Kwiatkowski by 19". This TOB has been a bookies bonanza with three breaks in a row winning and now an unheralded outsider who was probably not even listed by most bookies could well take the overall victory. 

Two stages tomorrow, the TT in the morning and the Crit in the afternoon. I think it's going to be quite a while until we get prices for the two stages tonight but my initial thoughts are that the top TT'er in the race are Wiggins, Kwiatkowski, Chavanel, Barta, Izagirre, Terpstra, Cummings Velits and Dowsett. 

As for the afternoon road race, I think that it will be a showdown between Cav, Kittel, Ruffoni, Swift, Farrar and Colbrelli. I'll update this later when there are some prices out. 

Stage 8a: So the prices are out now and there isn't much of a surprise at the top of the betting, Wiggins is the red-hot 4/9 favourite and I think that is the most likely outcome given the opposition tomorrow. It looks like a penalty kick for the man who won the TT last year on the way to overall victory. So that leaves us trying to find who will fill the other two podium spots and there isn't a great deal of value out there.

Alex Dowsett is bound to be trying to finish on a high after the disappointment of losing the yellow jersey and is a master of shorter time trials around the 10mile distance.. this is much shorter though at just 8kms. A good TT could see him move up several places tomorrow and a top 5 finish on the GC isn't out of the question. He is 10/1 second favourite after Kwiatkowski and if I was to pick one of the two of them to win a match bet I'd side with Kwiatkowski given how hard Dowsett had to ride again today, he had to bury himself for a 2nd day in a row. Kwiatkowski is going for the GC win and is going to be going flat out to take as much time as possible ahead of the afternoon stage. 

Jan Barta is a powerful TTer and has been riding really well in this race, sitting in 13th place in the TT. He'll be hunting a top 10 finish in the GC and is capable of a big ride here. 15th, 16th, 17th and 17th in 4 stages here shows he is in great form and he could go close at 12/1 with Paddy Power. Sylvain Chavanel should have been TT'ing to possibly win this I was thinking before the week started and he has been very disappointing - who knows how he will go tomorrow in his training ride for the World's.

I have one other rider I am looking to have a speculative bet on but he isn't listed by the two bookies with prices out. I have enquired and will update this once I see what sort of price they offer me.  Overall though, there is very little value to be had in what could really be a lottery on the short tricky streets of London. If I was to pick my top three I'd lean towards Wiggins, Kwiatkowski and Barta, with my mystery man possibly going close too. The Mystery man, for those of you who hadn't worked it out is Ryan Mullen, and despite there being some 125/1 available if you called Boyles apparently (I'm limited to £1.25 e/w so no good to me) I had to settle for 66/1 each way for a half a point with Paddy Power. 

Stage 8b: This is Kittel's for the taking you'd have to think but he's no bet at just 8/11 - I was thinking that the way to have a bit of fun for the afternoon is to have a treble on the three favourites for the three races on - Malori at 2/1, Wiggins at 2/5 and Kittel at 8/11 - it should pay 6.8/1.. but none of the bookies are currently allowing you to place a double on the two TOB stages so that isn't happening at the moment. Maybe they'll change it tomorrow, but they may be doing that as they may think they will be linked depending on how the TT goes, that is, if Kwiatkowski needs just a few seconds to take the GC his odds will be slashed for the stage as OPQS will work for him and not Cav. 

There could be any one of about 10 guys could scrap it out for second or third but I'm not really taken by any of them, none really fill me with confidence and things could change a little depending on how the morning TT goes. So to do some of what I wanted to do I fancy a double on Kittel and Malori, it pays 5.9/1 with Paddy Power. A double on Wiggins and Malori pays 4.78/1

Recommendations:

1pt on Wiggins/Malori double at 4.78/1 with PP

1pt on Kittel/Malori double at 5.9/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Ryan Mullen for the TT at 66/1 with Paddy Power