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- Published on Tuesday, 06 February 2018 00:53
Dubai Tour 2018
Dubai, United Arab Emirates
February 6th to 10th
The Dubai Tour is now in its 5th year and stays at 5 stages again this year after it was extended from 4 stages for the 2017 edition. No real change to the formula though, desert sprint stages and a charge up the Hatta Dam to decide it.
It has moved back over a week though in the calendar, taking the place of the now defunct Tour of Qatar, but it means it finishes just four days before the Ruta Del Sol.
Last year's race ended in a controversial manner, as the crucial stage 4 to the Hatta Dam had to be cancelled due to high winds blowing in the desert. Winds often play a factor in the races in the Gulf and stage 3 had seen a brief sandstorm that caused the peloton to break up into echelons. However, the local weather forecast predicted that there would be worse to come in the following days, and, following the stage, organisers made the call to amend stage 4.
To avoid the exposed desert, the new route brought the riders around two laps of a 51.1km loop before finishing on the Hatta Dam. Riders and teams headed to the start but it quickly became obvious they would not be able to avoid the strong winds. Videos and pictures from the start showed heavy winds blowing the trees and sand being dragged across the road. Riders convened for an impromptu meeting, with Bernhard Eisel lobbying the commissaires to cancel the day’s racing.
It meant that Marcel Kittel, who was already in the leader's jersey, had the race in the bag with only one sprint stage around the streets of Dubai to come. It was disappointing obviously to lose the spectacle of the only 5 minutes worth watching in the whole race, but it meant an easy win for our 13/8 Kittel. The previous two runnings were won also by sprinters, with Marcel Kittel also taking the title in 2016, following up Mark Cavendish's victory in 2015.
Taylor Phinney took the inaugural running of the race in 2014, thanks to the time trial, something that has been dropped ever since, enabling sprinters Cavendish and Kittel to take the prizes ever since.
The race is run by RCS Sports who run the Giro and Milan San Remo, but being Dubai, they add a layer of flash that is synonymous with the Emirate. The leaders jerseys in the past have been designed by Versace and Paul Smith (for Castelli), this year they have stuck with the plain Castelli jerseys, not that that's a bad thing, they make some of the best kit in cycling as far as I'm concerned.
2017 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcel Kittel | QuickStep Floors | 15h 08min 56s |
| 2 | Dylan Groenewegen | LottoNL-Jumbo | at 18s |
| 3 | John Degenkolb | Trek-Segafredo | at 20s |
The Route
The route is similar to the last two year's in that there's no TT and five road stages that will almost certainly finish in sprints. The slight difference to last year is that all stages start at the Skydive Dubai centre rather than the
Stage one will begin within the city before looping in to the desert and returning to Palm Jumeirah for what is likely to be yet another sprint there. The second stage runs through the United Arab Emirates – taking the peloton through Sharjah, Ajman and Umm al Qaiwain to before a finish in Ras al Khaimah.
Stage 3 travels the Arabian Peninsula, climbing to 500 metres, but it’s still likely to be a sprint finish. Stage four gets hillier, especially towards the end of the 172km course. The 4th stage up Hatta Dam will be crucial again, but as there are four sprint stages this year, with lots of bonus seconds, it's hard to see past a sprinter winning this race again. That's reflected in the betting, with Kittel the 5/4 favourite.
The trip up to the Hatta Dam is the only stage really with any sort of redeeming feature, and even then, that action lasts all of about five minutes as they charge in to the bottom of it and then sprint up it for 2 minutes.. It was the penultimate stage in 2016 too, won by Juan José Lobato, but there was an impressive ride by Marcel Kittel in 6th, to set up overall victory by winning the final sprint and the 10" bonus. We didn't get to see them tackle it last year of course as the stage was cancelled, fingers crossed we see them tackle it this year, to give us something worth watching in the whole race.
There are 10, 6 and 4 bonus seconds on offer to the top three on each stage and 3,2 and 1 seconds for the intermediate sprints. It's quite likely we'll see bonus seconds decide the winner again this year.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Nakheel Stage
Tuesday, February 6th, 167kms
The first stage is very similar to last year's first stage and should end up in a sprint on the famous Palm Jumeirah Island once again. It's always a fast and furious sprint, won by Elia Viviani in 2016 and 2015, with Marcel Kittel taking it in 2014 and 2017. Viviani jets back from the Tour Down Under, where he took a stage win and almost won the Cadel Evans GORR, to try to make it the hat-trick.
The course is similar as I said to last year, but starts at the Skydive Dubai and heads out in to the desert for a while It takes in some of the Dubai landmarks such as the Al Qudra Cycle Track and the finish on the Palm Island.
So the first stage, the first sprint - whoever takes it will probably go on to win the overall, it may well set a precedent for how all the sprints will go.. It may well be the case, and Marcel Kittel has the form here to suggest it will be very hard to beat him. Looking at the video below of last year's stage, you can see it's a bit of a free-for-all along the curving last 500m or so of the stage, it was just pure power from Kittel charging up the right of the road, hugging the hoardings.
Hard to see past Kittel tomorrow isn't it, but he's very short for me at 11/10 with Ladbrokes. New team, first run of the season, others who have wins already and lots of race miles on the clock? It's risky backing Kittel at that price. I think, Groenewegen should be there or thereabouts and might interest some at 11/2 e/w. I'm not touching Cavendish until I've seen him sprint for the first time and Kristoff might be a little rusty too.
That leaves Degenkolb and Viviani, two riders with some fine performances already this season. Viviani has looked very fast and is very good in crazy, chaotic mass finishes, he'll weave his way through to challenge Kittel for victory I think. Degenkolb will be close too, but might have to settle for 3rd or 4th, but at 12/1, with a decent leadout, he might be worth a nibble.
I can't see Bouhanni troubling Kittel or Viviani and the likes of Colbrelli, Blythe, Consonni and the rest will be fighting it out for 5th to 10th.
Recommendations:
1pt win on Elia Viviani at 4/1 with various
0.5pts each-way on John Degenkolb at 12/1 with Bet365
Match Bets:
Blythe to beat Young, Degenkolb to beat Kristoff and Kittel to beat Cavendish - 2pts at 2/1
Add Zabel to beat Renshaw to make it a four-fold at 11/4 - 1pt on that.
Route Map
Finish
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Ras al Khaimah Stage
Wednesday, February 7th, 190kms
This is almost exactly the same stage as stage 2 last year, just 2kms longer. I said last year that there was not a lot to say about it, it's flat, they spend a little bit of time in the desert, but quite a lot of time right on the coast, so if the wind does pick up at all there might be some splits. And as it turned out, it was probably the most boring race you're ever likely to see, and it just ended with Kittel coming out of nowhere to steal another stage win in the last 100m.
It's a relatively long stage at 190kms, 189kms of absolute boredom, 1km of a chaotic sprint finish. It's highly likely to just finish in another high-speed sprint though in Ras al Khaimah, a town hosting a stage for just the second time.
So we got our usual break on stage 1, the only thing of note about it was Daniel Teklehaimanot getting in the break to give his new team Cofidis some early TV exposure. They got to about 5 minutes, QuickStep went to the front and started to control it and it was pretty straightforward from there. But the finish was anything but straightforward, in fact it was the mess I sort of expected it to be.
Kittel seemed to get a bump by Cort Neilsen as he started his run, but also says he suffered a mechanical, he sat up, so I'm glad I steered clear of that. Hats off to Dylan Groenewegen and LottoNL though, they shot to the front with 500m to go, catching QSF and Katusha off guard a little and when Timo Roosen jumped with 300m to go with Groenewegen on his wheel they got a lead that the others couldn't peg back. Roosen was awesome, powering up the middle of the road for his team leader.
Viviani was unlucky, he seemed to be sprinting the fastest but started too late, Groenewegen got the jump on them. QSF had done everything really well up until then, I think Viviani can still win a stage in this race based on how well they almost set it up. Groenewegen closed the door on Viviani in the last 100m, but there was nothing untowards, there was never space for Viviani to go up there anyway.
There was almost a major surprise winner though in Magnus Cort Neilsen who shot up the left hand side of the road on his own and only a better bike lunge by DG won it. MCN was 66/1 for today and I know of a few guys who have him at 66/1 for the overall. It will be a big ask for him to win it on the Hatta Dam, but he is looking very lean and fit.
Kristoff took 4th, not a bad result considering he had to avoid a slowing Trek leadout man and weave all over the place, Bouhanni was 5th, but there was a big surprise too with 21 year old debutant Jacob Hennessy taking 6th place, an amazing result in this illustrious company. Blythe, Degenkolb, Cavendish, Kittel and Drucker all finished in 10th to 20th, not a great sprint for them.
As I said already, this is going to be boring. No point in even tuning in probably until the last 5kms.. And we are likely to see the same characters involved as last year and in today's first stage sprint, but you'd expect some of them to go a little better than they did today.
Groenewegen and LottoNL looked very good today, I almost went for him at 11/2, I should have just backed him e/w, I expected him to be top 3.. Plus, I pointed out how he would have been extra motivated after the slight by the organisers to not invite him to the 'sprinters' table at the press conference, he had a point to prove..
Can he repeat it tomorrow? He has a very good chance based on today's sprint. LottoNL were excellent, he was very strong. He finished 2nd here last year on this finish behind Kittel, leading all the way until the last 50m when Kittel eventually got the better of him on the line.
Kittel and Katusha weren't great today, Kittel had problems, surely he'll go better though with a cleaner run - he says that everything was going well and he was feeling good, he is confident he can do better.. Bouhanni was a good bit behind even though he finished 5th and Kristoff was just ahead of him, they were a little gap behind the first 3. I'm not sure Bouhanni can get any closer.
Degekolb and Cavendish were disappointing, Degenkolb might go closer, he was 4th in this stage last year but I'm not sure Cav will. But what about Viviani? Do we give him another go? He seemed to be sprinting very fast, QSF got him in a great position, but he chose the wrong route and got bottled in. This sprint is a bit more straightforward and he may get a nice run this time and could go very close again. Jakub Mareczko was 3rd in this stage last year, but it will be a big ask to see him repeat that I think this year with the quality of the opposition.
But Kittel at 5/4 with Ladbrokes looks tempting enough for me to have a go, Groenewegen at 15/4 is a bit short and Viviani is too short too at 3/1. Over-reaction of the week goes to the 14/1 on Magnus Cort Neilsen from 66/1 for stage 1, if the other sprinters get their act together he should't be involved in the fight for the podium.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 5/4 with Ladbrokes
Matchbets
Kittel to beat Cavendish, Zabel to beat Renshaw and Kristoff to beat Bouhanni - 2pts at 2.2/1 with 365
Degenkolb to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at evens
Route Map
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage
Thursday February 2rd, 200kms
Again, an almost identical stage to last year's stage 3, a stage that turned out to be quite the oposite to the borefest from the day before. There were early crashes, and then there was chaos.. Gusting winds, sand storms, echelons, splits.. Race leader Marcel Kittel got caught out in the splits, and at one point was well over 2 minutes down and all looked lost for him. Not only that, but he had blood coming from an eye wound, and seemed to be claiming he had been hit by an elbow, from an Astana rider apparently..
As it turned out, it was Andriy Grivko who was supposed to have hit him and he was thrown out the race by the organisers. On the road, the race calmed down a bit and came back together, so Kittel retained his leader's jersey.
It's the longest stage of the race at 190kms, but is 10kms shorter than last year's stage, which was the longest in the Tour's history. On paper, there also isn't a great deal we can say about this stage, other than it's a longer version of stage 1 of 2015 and 2016. They do spend quite a lot of it in the desert though as they head from the west coast to the east coast to the town of Al Aqah, and there is a little rise in elevation, at least compared to the pan-flat opening two stages, where dips in to tunnels and rises over bridges are about the only changes in elevation.
As they cross the desert they go over the Hajar mountains, but only reach 300m in height, before descending down to Fujairah, which was a stage finish town last year. There will be a reasonably strong westerly wind , this will be a tail-wind for most of the day, and when they turn left at Fujairah the wind will then be coming from their left hand side. At the end of a long and dusty day in the desert it could cause problems and splits in a tired peloton if some teams look to push it, so they will have to be on their toes.
The surprise last year was that Kittel was outside the top 10 and John Degenkolb pounced to land his first victory of the season, powering up the middle of the road. What was even more of a surprise was that the Dimension Data rider that he came out from behind in the last 100m to just nail in a photo finish was not Mark Cavendish like everyone thought, but Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg. Sonny Colbrelli took 3rd to complete a bizarre podium.
The finish is pretty straightforward, the road bends around to the right a little with 350m to go, but it's a flat out, straight sprint on a wide road for the last 350m. It does slope ever so gently uphill though, meaning it is one that slightly favours the really strong sprinters like Degenkolb and Kittel.
I think I'll forgive Kittel for his 11th place last year, out of the sprint, given everything that happened him that day, with being elbowed, being dropped, having to chase, complain to officials etc etc.. He had quite the stressful day. But can you forgive him two terrible sprints in a row this year? Day 1 he said he had a mechanical. Today, well he just couldn't be arsed to sprint when it didn't look like he would win it. He was close enough if he wanted it enough.
I think QuickStep and Katusha will both be worried in the winds of the desert about Viviani and Kittel respectively and should do a lot more this year to look after their men and protect them should things start to explode like last year. The wind isn't going to be as strong though and I think we may not see the carnage we saw last year. But having said that, even if there was some carnage out in the desert, they did all come back together long before the finish after some good multi-team coordination in the chase.
Can John Degenkolb pull off a repeat? Possibly.. He has been looking ok in the first two stages and is getting closer, he was 5th today. Trek will have to deliver him like they did last year though to put him in the first 3-4 as the final leg of the sprint starts. But it was Boy Van Poppel who was his last man in stage one, he's no Koen De Kort though who expertly guided JD in to position last year. Greg Rast is here though and he can help get him in the right place potentially.
Some riders who are possibly going to be looking forward to the winds are Groenewegen, Cavendish, Drucker, Colbrelli and Cort Neilsen. All are good in echelon type situations and could well look to get their teams to try to shred it out on the desert. Groenewegen was very strong on stage 1, the whole team looks to be in good shape, and with Bram Tankink, Tom Leezer, Bert-Jan Lindeman, Paul Martens and Timo Roosen they have a very experienced lineup of strong men who are well accustomed to riding in the winds.
They might look to push it hard out in the desert to see if they can cause a split, but also I think they will look after him well in the closing kilometres as the wind comes at them from their left side. He finished very fast today and almost won the stage.
Cavendish doesn't look in great shape, he couldn't hold Renshaw's wheel in the sprint on Tuesday, a pretty bad sign, and after being put in the right place at the right time by DD today, he just didn't have the legs and stopped sprinting with about 50m to go. But he is usually pretty good at being in the right place at the right time when echelons start, maybe he will get closer, but I'm not chancing him again.
Drucker and his strong BMC team will also be one looking to split things up I think, and Colbrelli was 3rd here last year so the distance, winds, chaos etc didn't seem to bother him too much. And of course Magnus Cort Neilsen.. His whole team more or less were taken out of the equation with that crash with 9kms to go on stage 1, yet he did his own thing, surfed wheels, dived out to his left to avoid Van Poppel and on his own almost won the stage. He's clearly in great shape, and unless some of his team-mates suffered some injuries in that crash then they too could be a team looking to split things up on the way in.
And Viviani - that was annoying to watch him win today after picking him yesterday, he and the QSF team got it spot on today, they were excellent. He clearly is going very very well, has lots of speed and power, he is very likely to be top 3 again tomorrow. But you know what? I am finding it hard to pick a winner for tomorrow.. They all seem to have question marks about them, or the only two that seem to be capable of winning are just prohibitively short at just 12/5 for Viviani and 11/4 for Groenewegen, when it could be another scrappy, messy affair.. And how can you trust Kittel at just 6/5 after what he has done to his backers for the last two days?
The only bets that I am interested in are Jakub Mareczko at 20/1 and Sonny Colbrelli at 33/1. Mareczko went too early today and ran out of steam, but Willier Trestina have been looking keen and if he can time it right he can get closer. Sonny Colbrelli waas 3rd on this stage last year and he has been 8th and 9th so far this week, he might get closer.
Recommendations:
0.3pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 33/1
0.4pts each-way on Jakub Mareczko at 20/1
Matchbets
Colbrelli to beat Drucker and Cort Neilsen to beat Bouhanni - 2pts at 6/4
Mareczko to beat Minali - 2pts at 6/5
Route Map
Profile
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Dubai Municipality Stage
Friday February 9th, 172kms
After the cancellation of this stage last year due to the high winds, we're back to the traditional run up the Hatta Dam. A run across the desert in a sort of S shape, ending with the charge up the Dam, one of the most bizarre finishes in pro cycling. The leave Dubai and cut through the desert for 87kms until the reach Al Madam, then after 22kms of heading north-east they turn right at Al Malahia and start their arcing run south to the Dam.
From the 20km to 5km to go mark the road is a rough concrete surface called Wadis, something to watch out for, as is sand accumulation on the desert roads.
The final climb to the dam is quite gentle at first but then kicks up for the last 350m, hitting 17% average for the last 200m. It isn't very long though, so it is possible, as we saw in the last few years for sprinters to feature up here - it's all about an explosion of power for just 500m or so.
Positioning is crucial - they come in to the climb around that bend on the right of the picture and up the road to the dam at the top left corner. As Degenkolb showed two years ago when he got a fantastic lead-in from his team-mates, a strong sprinter can outgun the climbers.
We have the 2nd placed rider from the last time they went up here in 2016, Giacomo Nizzolo here, and he has been keeping his powder dry all week as Degenkolb has been doing the sprinting.. Has he been saving himself for this? Can he repeat his run from 2016 and be the first of this lot home? Mmmmmm...
Next best of the runners that year that are here was Marcel Kittel, who came home an impressive 6th to seal the GC win. He has been in poor form this week though, his sprint today was very strange, he seemed to finish the fastest of all of them, but it was no good as he started his sprint in earnest with about 30m to go, way too late. I can't see him pulling a win out of the bag here.
Winner in 2015 John Degenkolb pulled off quite the shock to win, but he showed the likes of Nizzolo and Kittel that if you are well positioned and can just mash out some serious wattage up the climb then it is possible for sprinters to do well here. John has been up and down this week, getting close on stage 2 in 5th, but did a very poor sprint in stage 3 today, getting stuck behind a wall of riders with about 400m to go and never coming close to challenging the leaders. Can he repeat his win tomorrow?
Maybe he took his foot off the gas today as he is thinking only of tomorrow. He probably knows, or certainly knew when the sprint was in full flight that he wasn't going to beat the likes of Viviani or Cavendish, so why waste energy? He might have come here with the sole intention of winning on the Dam again.. But that puts Trek in a bit of a dilemma with two riders who could win here.. Who works for whom? I personally think Nizzolo will climb better than Degenkolb and it could be that John is like a decoy to allow Nizzolo some room..
Who else could go well here? Who else is in the mould of Valverde, Lobato and Gilbert who have gone well here in the past? Sonny Colbrelli can get up hills like this, he has won the Brabantse Pijl last year after all, with that steep last kilometre, similar to this finish here.. I was hoping for something like 8/1, but he's just 7/2 with Ladbrokes and 10/3 with Bet365. I like his chances though out of a pretty average bunch.
Dylan Theuns could go well, he will like this finish, and Elia Viviani will definitely be in the right place at the right time, thanks to a super-strong QSF leadout.. but can he finish the job? I'm not so sure.. He has said that he wants to win Milan San Remo this year, he'll have to show his climbing power here tomorrow to be in with a chance.. 12/1 doesn't really appeal to me, I think he'll be 5th to 10th.
Magnus Cort Neilsen has been riding well this week and almost won the sprint on stage 1, but how will he fare up this hill? His best results have all come in flat sprints, we don't really have a whole lot of good form to go on to say that he'll charge up this hill tomorrow to win it. I can't see Nacer Bouhanni being in the first six, same goes for Cavendish and Kristoff. Simone Consonni and Pippo Pozzato might go ok too, and it will be interesting to see how the Grand Tour riders like Nibali, Roche and Daniel Navarro, although Navarro isn't priced up by anyone.
Degenkolb is the evens favourite, and I just can't have him at that price. I'd rather be on Nizzolo at 80/1 though, given that he was 2nd here last time up. But Colbrelli is going to be my main bet, I think he will go well up here and might just have the kick to take the win at the top. One outsider that I want to have a nibble on too though is Ivan Garcia Acosta at 40/1, the young teammate of Colbrelli from Bahrain Merida could also go well on this finish and has an ok kick on him in a reduced sprint finish like this. He might stay close to Colbrelli and should their main man falter he could be on his shoulder to take it up.
The GC is still wide open and any one of about ten riders or more could still win this, even Nathan Van Hooydonck could as he sits in 3rd place thanks to intermediate bonuses.. He's 500/1 to win tomorrow though! As for the betting? Viviani is too short at 8/11, so is Degenkolb at 3/1.. but none of the others really appeal either, so it might just come back to Viviani not losing much time to his sprinter rivals tomorrow and then trying to podium on the final stage to win overall. A good run like the last time here by Kittel could see him still take time off his rivals and if he wins the last stage he might just take the overall again too. So the 12/1 with Bet365 is worth a point.. in for a penny, in for a pound with him now..
Recommendations:
2pts win on Sonny Colbrelli at 7/2 with Lads
0.3pts each-way on Ivan Garcia Acosta at 40/1 with 365
0.2pts e/w on Giacomo Nizzolo at 80/1 with Bet365
1pt win on Marcel Kittel for the GC at 12/1
Matchbets
Colbrelli to beat Cort Neilsen and Roche to beat Nibali - 2pts at 1.29/1 with 365
Route Map
Profile
Final Climb
Stage 5
Stage 5 - Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage
Saturday February 10th, 124kms
Well that was more like it today, main bet Colbrelli did the job for us at 7/2, Nizzolo almost took at place at 80/1 and the matchbet double came in too. No sign of Dege, the even money favourite at all, he finished in 30th, 1'06 down. Great ride by young McNulty of Team Rally, I think everyone was willing him and Rally to take the stage and the overall.. But he underestimated the severity of the final climb and came to a complete standstill, while Colbrelli and the rest shot past him.
Magnus Cort Neilsen was very impressive, coming from a long way back to take 2nd on the line, with Timo Roosen pulling off an amazing ride in 3rd place, showing that he is much more than just a leadout man for Groene. Alexander Kristoff surprised me in 4th, hauling his big frame up that hill so quickly, and Nizzolo looked for a while like he might give us a 1-2 or a 1-3 but faded in the last 50m to 5th.
Elia Viviani did a Kittel though, finishing 6th, to hold on to his race lead and almost guarantee victory. I say almost, as there are still many guys in with a chance of winning this, particularly Cort Neilsen, who is only 2" back and Sonny Colbrelli who is only 4" back. Van Hooydonck, Bouhanni, Vliegen and Roosen are all just 10" back. Viviani's to lose, but the way sprints have been going this week, it wouldn't surprise me to see Bouhanni take it with the others out of the frame and he wins it by 2"..
Final Act
The final stage, a final sprint. It's a featureless criterium around the skyscrapers and famous landmarks of Dubai, but nothing to get excited about, route-wise. The stage might add a little extra drama if the GC is still up for grabs though, with intermediate sprints coming after 73kms and 97kms, and the final 10" bonus on the line. The last two year's has seen Kittel win the final stage to secure the GC win and we could well see a similar story this year
The route is basically the same as last year, only it is 5kms longer. They just need to watch out for the sharp right, then left with around 1500m to go and then the final right hander that takes them to the last 500m for the sprint on the City Walk.
What have we learnt from the sprints so far? Not a lot.. it's been very evenly spread about with no sprinter displaying any sort of dominance. And not only that, but no team seems to be dominating the leadouts and setting their men up perfectly. Leadouts have come there looking strong and coordinated, but the roads are so wide other teams just sweep by them on the opposite side of the road and then they get swamped. It happened to Katusha in the run-in on Thursday where they went from being front of the pack with 2kms to go to being shuffled out of camera shot in an instant.
And the sprinters - We had Groenewegen who won, finished 2nd and then was only 10th, never involved in the finish. We've had Viviani who finished 3rd, 1st and 6th, Kittel who has let down his backers in win bet and match bets at very short odds three days running, Cavendish who was way out of it on stage 1, gave up the sprint in stage 2 when he was not in a position to win, then wins stage 3! Alexander Kristoff has been right there but has not made the top 3 yet, Nacer Bouhanni who finished 5th, 11th and then nearly won stage 3, John Degenkolb has been off the pace and you get the likes of Minali and Cort Neilsen for Astana popping up..
All in all, where does it leave us? Well Cavendish seems to be hitting form and has the nouse and kick to jump past these guys in the last 100m, as he explained in his post-race interview on Thursday. He surfed the wheels brilliantly in the last kilometre, got himself on to Viviani's wheel, and as he said himself - "I know I can't beat him in a drag race, so I waited to just use my kick right at the end.. I knew my kick would give me the speed to pass him, I just had to wait as long as possible". If he can do the same tomorrow, he has a chance for sure, he won this stage in 2015 after all.
Marcel Kittel seemed to finish the fastest of the lot of them in stage 3, in just a few pedal strokes before the line he shot through the pack. Was he in too big a gear? He'll surely learn from that and improve, and he has won here for the last two years running. He was not as close as before on the Dam today, but he did still finish it in 22nd, some 18" down, but he barely got across the line, zig-zagging from side to side.
Elia Viviani needs to time it right again, QSF have been the best team it seems in the final leadouts, they maybe need to take it up as late as possible and deliver him with a bit of a headstart on the others when they start their final kick and he might just hold on. He's been 2nd here for the last three years running, to Cav and Kittel, he will want to stop that run of 'almosts'.
Dylan Groenewegen started the first stage on fire, but has come off the boil a little since. Can he get back on top? LottoNL's train has come off the rails a little in the last few stages I thought, he's been very much left to fight for himself in the closing stages and he hasn't been as succesful as when Roosen dragged him to the last 200m on Tuesday. They will need to get their act together for this sprint in order to see him go close again I think.
Degenkolb just doesn't seem to have the kick, which is strange seeing as he has won two races already this season, but then again he wasn't up against anything like the talent on display here. Bouhanni did a much better sprint in stage 3 than he had done previously, it looked at first glance like it was going to be a photo finish when they crossed the line, but he side-on view showed that Cavendish had about a half bike-length in hand. He did have to swing wildly out to his right to try to come around Cav, it cost him some ground and momentum, with a better run tomorrow, and with the race on the line, I think I might give Bouhanni a good shout at getting the win.
Colbrelli, Cort Neilsen, Minali, Colbrelli, Blythe - they will all be involved again of course, but I think they'll be fighting it out for 5th to 10th.. Viviani probably deserves to win as he has been the best sprinter so far this spring, but anything can still happen in this race, it will be a fascinating climax to the race, but probably a very boring stage to watch.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 10/1 with Skybet
Matchbets
Viviani to beat Groenewegen and Bouhanni to beat Cort Neilsen - 2pts at 7/4
Marezcko to beat Hennessy - 2pts at 6/5
Blythe to beat Drucker - 3pts at 5/6
Route Map
Overall Contenders and Favourites
It's hard to see this race going any different to the past three runnings and that means it's almost pointless looking beyond the top five or six sprinters in the betting. Basically, the exact same thing I said last year. And if we were being completely realistic, it's hard to even think about anyone other than the top three or four in the betting.
It is quite the collection of sprinters that are here though, with Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, Elia Viviani, Dylan Groenewegen, John Degenkolb, Alexander Kristoff and Nacer Bouhanni all present. Add in Sonny Colbrelli, Jakub Mareczko, Jempy Drucker, Magnus Cort Neilsen, Adam Blythe and Rick Zabel and almost all the best sprinters in ther world are here, bar maybe Gaviria and Bennett.
This race has favoured the sprinters since they made changes to the route for the last three years, and even since last year it favours them even more, given that there is an extra sprint stage in which to earn bonus seconds.
Of course we could see something different happen - there might be a break make it some day, there might be a split in the winds later in the week that sees the top sprinters detached, like in stage 3 last year, there could be a late break before the Hatta Dam that sees someone take 20" and the bonus and that might be enough to steal the race. But let's face it, it's pretty unlikely.
Usually I say that the one thing that could shake things up is the wind - but it looks like it will not have any impact this year. It will be generally around 6-8mph and only getting up to highs of around 11-12mph. A far cry from the 30mph plus winds that they struggled in last year.
Marcel Kittel - Can sometimes be a danger backing him at short odds, he seems to let you down a lot... Hard to know what sort of form he is in either, given it's his first start of the season, but how will it go for him in his first season with the Katusha leadout? They have not always been great at getting their men in position, but you can rely on them to be rough and determined to get their man as close as they can.
Winner of three out of the four stages and the overall last year, winner of the first and last stages the year before, taking the race overall also after a powerful sprint up the Hatta Dam to finish in a very impressive 6th place. He started the season well for the last two years running here, as he seems to prepare well pre-season, and when he is in form, he's the best sprinter in the world by a long way.
But, he may be a bit rusty with his new leadout on the first stage, but it would be a surprise if he doesn't win a couple of stages here at least, and as we saw 2 years ago, he can power up the Hatta Dam close enough to the winner to possibly hold on to his race lead.
Elia Viviani comes here in decent form from his trip down under, he looks and sounds relaxed and confident and has a win under his belt already with his powerful finish in stage 3 of the TDU. He also almost won the CEGORR, coming from a mile back to almost catch McCarthy on the line. Quickstep have a powerful team here and know how to win in the desert, they just need to get Viviani close enough for him to surf the wheels and possibly steal a stage win. But how will he fare on the Hatta Dam? I don't think he'll do as well as others, so I'm avoiding him for the overall.
Dylan Groenewegen might have a point to prove after being left out of the 'sprinters' press conference today, attended by Kittel, Viviani, Kristoff, Cavendish, Bouhanni and Degenkolb (right). He finished last season with 8 wins in total, not a bad return at all, including that stage win on the Champs Elysees in the TDF. He will go close in the flat sprints, he might do well with the LottoNL boys if it gets windy, but I think he will really struggle on the Hatta Dam.
Mark Cavendish is always a big danger here, one of the best sprinters in the world.. Winner of two stages and the overall in 2015, he's not had a look-in because of Marcel Kittel in the last two years. He was unlucky in stage 1 last year, sprinting with a puncture that had his wheel sliding around on the paving. He had a terrible year last year of course, he won just one race in the whole year in the Abu Dhabi Tour in February, but was diagnosed with Epstein Barr virus in April which basically set him back for the whole season.
He came back in June, but a 2nd place in Slovenia was the best he managed. He will be desperate to get back to winning ways, but I think Kittel is too good for him these days, and if he's a bit rusty, the likes of Viviani and Degenkolb might have the fitness edge on him. He has Eisel, Renshaw and Vermote here with him, but I don't think they will be able to match Katusha and QS and he will be battling for 3rd or 4th place finishes I think.
Can anyone dethrone them and lift the fine trophy for the first time? John Degenkolb was 7/1 last year and I backed him each-way, his stage win on stage 3 helped him to 3rd overall. 2nd in the GC three years ago, he owed that to a fine stage win up the Dam, but if he'd have managed to sprint to 2nd on the final stage he'd have finished on the same time as Cav, but Cav would have still won on countback.
He's had a good start to the season this year, winning both his starts to date in the Challenge Mallorca races, but let's face it, he beat nobody's compared to the sprinters he'll face here. He's still got a way to go I think to be back to his best of a few years ago, but Trek have a decent team here that can get him close in the sprints. I don't think he's going to score highly enough often enough to win overall though.
Dylan Teuns could be a danger to Kittel though in that he could well win the stage up the Hatta Dam, but I think he will need to win the stage by over 10" to give himself a chance of winning the overall, and that's a big ask, Kittel only lost 4" to Lobato in 2016, who is a specialist on that sort of finish. Teuns could get in to breaks to steal bonus seconds though and might help cause splits with his strong BMC squad, but I think I'll pass on him at just 16/1.
Alexander Kristoff will also be with a new team after his move away from Katusha to UAE Team Emirates, and he will be looking to carry on where he left off last season when he took 8 victories. Three of those wins came in the Tour of Oman, so he clearly can go ok in the desert, and he also took a stage win and two 2nds in the Etoile de Besseges in the first week of February. He'll find it tough going against Kittel and Viviani though I think and will struggle to get his big frame up the Dam.
Giacomo Nizzolo has finished 2nd on the Dam and 2nd overall in 2016, he could be a good backup plan for Trek should anything happen to Degenkolb or if he just isn't at 100%.. Nizzolo has kicked his season off in San Juan, where he took a 1st, 2nd and a 4th place over there, not a bad start to the season.
I don't think Nacer Bouhanni is good enough to win stages here, and he will probably get lost, get dropped, start a fight and lose time on the Hatta Dam, so have no interest in him. Sonny Colbrelli is a division below the top sprinters here, so it will take a stroke of luck I think for him to win a stage, let alone two or gain a time gap. Jempy Drucker might try to get in breaks like he has done in the past and take time bonuses, but he won't be winning any sprints.
And that's about it. Nothing very exciting, a stage race of four of the most boring sprint stages imaginable and 5 minutes worth of action up the wall of a dam. Original I know, but I'm going to stick with my pick from last year, Marcel Kittel, he should win 2, maybe 3 or more stages and will stay close enough on the Dam to secure the win. Nothing else appeals to me on the win market front at the moment, but a few matchbets caught my eye.
Recommendations:
4pts win on Marcel Kittel at 5/4 with Ladbrokes
Overall Matchbets:
Kreder to beat Pozzato - 2pts at 13/8 with Bet365
Teuns to beat Vliegen, Viviani to beat Kristoff and Nizzolo to beat Consonni - 3pts at 2/1
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