Stage 2 

 

Stage 2 - DIMC to Palm Jumeirah (Atlantis)

Thursday, February 4th, 188kms

Well that wasn't supposed to happen Thomas Vaitkus... A dislocated shoulder and he still finished 10th today. Ouch. At least the matchbet double landed to scrape a little back. Just hoping that by the time most of you read it the market had already been pulled by Bet365.. Bet their trader bought himself a new pair of underwear after seeing the result. 

Kittel and EQS were very impressive. I partly guessed he would wipe the floor with them, just didn't have the conviction that he would be back to his best. He is and the rest of the sprinters better watch out, he could clean up this year. Cav's train fell apart, he was left alone far too early and couldn't get near Kittel. Nizzolo sprinted well, Trek did a good job keeping him near the front for as long as they did. Guardini looked like he might take a good placing entering the last 500m, but he chose to follow Cav who was having his own problems, and then when he was in 3rd place he seemed to suddenly stop pedaling about 30m from the line like as if he slipped a gear or something, he finished 6th.. Viviani was all on his own, and finished way out of the places in 8th, they got it all wrong. 

Andrea Palini took a fine 5th place and Chris Opie took a fantastic 7th place for One Pro Cycling, but a split in the peloton at the 17th place point saw Gilbert, Cancellara, Boom and lots of other guys lose 5" to the winners. It may mean their race is over already. Gilbert stretched his legs inside the last few kilometres, going off on a kamikaze solo attack, but it looks like he is keen to race here. Cav will probably be favourite now as he should distance Kittel on the Dam, but he will need to probably pick up top 3 places on every other sprint finish too. Lobato is still in the hunt though thankfully, he was off the pace in 12th, but at the right side of the split. 

A very similar course to stage 2 of last year's race, it is just 1km longer and finishes in the same place on the Palm Jumeirah man-made island. The differences being that the route takes slightly different roads, heading anti-clockwise while out in the figure-of-eight middle section of the race, sticking closer to the city for the latter part of the stage. 

There are lots of wide-open, exposed roads out on the course and they will be heading north, south, east and west at varying points of the course so the winds could play havoc, if it happens to be windy. Head-winds, cross-winds could play a part in that box section around the mid-point of the circuit, and they will have a head-wind for most of the journey back towards Dubai.  

The finishing part of the course in the city could be quite tricky, several sectors are paved with stone slabs and can be quite rough, and there are lots of turns and roundabouts to negotiate before they hit the Palm Jumeirah. Once the last bend is out of the way with 3,500m to go it arcs its way along Crescent Road West but is almost dead straight from a sprinting point of view.(the course has actually changed now slightly because of roadworks, instead of going left after coming out of the tunnel and to the end of the road and back, they are not turning right and finishing just 350m after coming out of the tunnel. It will mean there will be a frantic dash to get out of the tunnel and in to that final right hand bend, something that Etixx will probably do better than anyone else.)

There is the possibility that a strong push at the front could cause splits if winds are high out in the desert, but the most likely scenario is that this stage will end in a sprint as before. So it's a short-ish list from which to choose from given that it's only the sprinters really we need to consider here. 

I may not be able to do an update later on as I am out at an event tonight, but I would imagine Kittel will be 4/7 or something like that, Cav 3/1, Nizzolo 7/1, Viviani 9/1 etc.. Based on what we saw today though it's hard to see anything other than an accident or incident stopping Kittel. I'll try to take a look at matchbets if I can but it's unlikely there will be much value in the winner market.  

 

Route Map

 

 

Finish

 

 

 

 

Stage 3 

 

Stage 3 - DIMC to Hatta Dam

Friday February 5th, 172kms

The dangers of backing at odds-on in a race like this were very clear today as Marcel Kittel got held up by Boy Van Poppel's crash inside the last kilometre. It was a messy end to the stage and with lead-out trains all over the place it just became a free-for-all in the last 500m, with Viviani leading home a quartet of Italians. Sacha Modolo, a little surprisingly, took 2nd place from Nizzolo who once again finished 3rd. Guardini was the fourth Italian home with Thomas Vaitkus continuing to defy medical logic by sprinting to 5th again with his dislocated shoulder. Cavendish never got close as he was badly positioned after the crash and took out his frustration on Stepniak with a head-butt as they approached the line.

So it looks like it is still all to play for as they hit the crucial stage 3 - Paddy Power have made Lobato their 9/4 favourite now to win it overall, with Kittel 4/1, Gilbert 9/2, Viviani 5/1 and Cavendish now way out at 20/1 as his chances look all but gone now.

This is a very similar route to last year's stage, but they've knocked 33kms off the total distance by not going out on to the Khalba road tunnel climb this year. Instead, the stage starts again at the DIMC and heads out on the same roads as far as Al Madam after around 80kms and again take the hard left on to the E55. This year though, instead of cutting diagonally across the desert they carry straight on as far as Al Malaiha and join the Sharja Khalba Road. 

They then head on to Munay and through Huwaylat again and the final section of the race is exactly the same as last year as they head towards the final climb up to the Hatta Dam. From the 20km to 5km to go mark the road is a rough concrete surface called Wadis, something to watch out for, as is sand accumulation on the desert roads. 

The final climb to the dam is quite gentle at first but then kicks up for the last 350m, hitting 17% average for the last 200m. It isn't very long though, so it is possible, as we saw last year, for a sprinter to win on it - it's all about an explosion of power for just 500m or so.    

Positioning is crucial - they come in to the climb around that bend on the bottom right of the picture and up the road to the dam at the top. As Degenkolb showed last year, when he got a fantastic lead-in from his team-mates, that a strong sprinter can outgun the climbers. It also helped Degenkolb that the leadout man he had coming around the final bend, and Lutsenko from Astana both stopped dead as Degs accelerated away, blocking some of the chasers. I think as well that riders didn't realise how quick it would be over, they'll know better this year and I think it will be even more of a dogfight in to that final bend. 

 

 

It will be a mix of climbers and punchy sprinters that might fight this finish out, and behind them there will be the battle of the other sprinters to try to hang in and take the overall GC. As I said above, positioning is crucial and it may be that whoever gets the best leadout in to the final steep part could hang on all the way to the top. Behind there will be carnage as riders suddenly come to a stop - last year Lutsenko came to a halt almost as if he unshipped his chain (as many of us know can happen sometimes when you slam it from the big ring to the small ring..) and he obstructed Gilbert and a few others (look at the video above at the 1'32" mark, Gilbert is obstructed by him). Other riders will have done their leadout job and will be dead on their feet and come to a stop.. being near the front is vital; if you're not in the first 10 with 200m to go, forget it.

Degenkolb showed last year you don't need to be a 'climber' to do well here - and that was backed up by 'sprinter' Lobato in 3rd, Pozzato in 4th, Canola in 5th and Gilbert in 6th. It's just all about explosive power. Having said that, I think that the explosive sprinters here may struggle with this hill this year. Cavendish doesn't like them as steep as this and could lose 20" plus this year, and I can't see Kittel faring much better. In fact I wouldn't be surprised to see him shelled out on the hills before the Hatta, if Movistar, BMC and Trek put the hammer down, he struggles on the slightest of gradients.

JJ Lobato has a serious chance of winning this year with Valverde and Degenkolb missing. He knows exactly what's required to win here and came very close to doing so last year, he had to negotiate heavy traffic and came from a long way back in the sprint last year and almost passed Valverde on the line. If he gets a better run this year, with him being led in to it as opposed to Valverde, he could well take this and potentially win by enough to win the GC. He hasn't been sprinting great this week, just outside the top 10, but this is the big one for him. Bet365 make him their 2/1 favourite, but PP go 10/3, with Gilbert their favourite..

Any other sprinters who could pull off a Degenkolb? Giacomo NIzzolo has a bit of a reputation of being one of those sprinters who can get over the hilly stuff when many sprinters fall away, he should be near the front approaching the Dam if Trek want to ride for him. The question is though, who has more of a chance of exploding up that hill - Nizzolo or Cancellara?! I'd think Cancellara, so it's quite possible we'll see Nizzo working for Cancellara. If he wants to be able to explode up the Paterberg in two months time he can get some good practice in here. He's 7/1 third favourite but that's too short I think, I was expecting double digits, I fear he may fade near the top and get passed.

Philippe Gilbert was very unlucky last year, he got blocked off by Lutsenko first and nearly went in to the barriers - you can see him taking evasive action in the video at the 1'34" mark and in the picture on the right. 2 seconds later he again had to take evasive action as Lobato shot across in front of him as he too was trying to avoid the traffic. His race was over by then but he still shot up the hill and finished just behind the leaders. A clearer run from him this year should see him go close.

He is 9/4 favourite with Bet365, but was 3/1 with Skybet and I took some of that, I think it is between Lobato and Gilbert. Lobato could still win the overall with a decent gap over the sprinters and the 10" bonus so he'll desperately fighting for victory, but I'm hedging it a little here with Gilbert. 

SImone Ponzi might do ok for CCC Sprandi, but it's been two years since he last won a race and I don't think he'll be winning this one either. Movistar have two back-ups in Gorka Izagirre and Gio Visconti, but it will take a problem for Lobato I think for them to get the nod. Davide Rebellin is here and at the age of what, 55 or something, he will probably be close to the front on a stage like this.. He won the Coppa Agostini last year, beating Nibali, Bonifazio and Nizzolo, so he's still got the legs it seems. As three-time winner of Fleche-Wallone, there is no doubt that he is capable of a big ride on a hill like this one, he may surprise a few here and 50/1 was tempting.

Andrea Palini could hopefully be closer this year, he lost 9 minutes on this stage last year but this year the stage is 33kms shorter, with a lot of the climbing taken out of it as they don't go over the climbs of the Khalba Road Tunnel. If he can come to the finish in the front 10 or 15 he has a chance of a top placing. I think though his chances of finishing in the top 3 overall are gone now and I took the opportunity tonight to cash out my bet with PP.. they let me take 0.3pts of the 0.5pts staked back on the cash out. Better than leaving it there eh.. I was thinking earlier in the week that Owain Doull might go well here, but he's been struggling all week and I can't see him being involved. 

Ben Swift is only 22/1 with Bet365 and just 12/1 with Paddy Power, I think he'll be tasked with looking after Viviani so that makes no appeal to me at all.. Matteo Trentin ranges from 9/1 to 16/1 for this so a very confused set of opinions on his chances from the bookies. Well I would lay him at any of those prices, I can't see him finishing in the top 3 tomorrow. The fact that he doesn't even attempt races like Fleche-Wallone will tell you that he knows what he can and can't do. Lars Peter Nordhaug could have a shout here, Sky seem to be going particularly well at the moment with Kennaugh, Froome, Poels and Viviani all going so well in the last few days. I can't see him winning here though. 

And that's about it - Ben Hermans might go well if Gilbert isn't up for it, Nelson Oliveira at 66/1 appeals a little as does Lieuwe Westra at the same price. But I think it will come down to a head to head between Lobato and Gilbert and I'm hoping Lobato takes it by 20" or so from the sprinters to take over the leader's jersey, but as Gilbert is his biggest danger I think I'm backing him tomorrow. 

 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Philippe Gilbert at 3/1 with Skybet

0.3pts each-way on Davide Rebellin at 50/1 with PP

 

Matchbets

Matchbet treble - Cancellara to beat Bennati, Izagirre to beat Dillier, Ponzi to beat Modolo - 1.5pts on the treble at 6/4 with Bet365

Rebellin to beat Costa - 2pts at 5/6 

 

Route Map

 

Final Climb

 

Stage 4 

 

Stage 4 - DIMC to Burj Khalifa

Saturday February 6th, 132kms

Story of the day has to be Kittel, who pulled off an incredible ride to finish 6th on the Dam and in doing so has put himself in the driving seat now to win the race overall. Lobato did as I expected him to do right from the outset and won the stage in style, just annoyed I deserted him on the day! Gilbert got the perfect leadout to the base of the climb, but faded pretty quickly as Lobato accelerated away. Well, almost perfect, he probably could have done with Hermans to help him out at the finish, but unfortunately he hit a pothole with 12kms to go and never got back on. 

Giacomo Nizzolo continued his great start to the season with a very fine 2nd place, with Cancellara getting some good training in on the hill and still taking 4th place. He faded towards the top like I feared he might, unlucky for his each-way backers. The 3rd place was also a big surprise with Sylvan Dillier popping up to take the third podium step, the IAM man confounding me as I was pretty confident that Izagirre would beat him in their match bet. Instead, Izagirre managed to take a good 7th place and still lost the match bet, busting the treble, the other two won.. Rebellin beat Costa easily though so the match bets made a tiny profit. Rebellin wasn't that far off in 9th place, especially considering he did a crazy suicidal break with around 15kms to go. 

Cavendish was the big loser on the day, puncturing with 25kms or so to go, he was never to get back in again, even with the drafting assistance of multiple team cars. He was in the leading group after getting over the tougher final climb, so it's a pity we didn't get to see him go toe to toe with Kittel on the Dam. Viviani struggled on the climb as did Modolo and Guardini rolled in 5 minutes down with Cavendish. Bernie Eisel crashed and fractured his clavicle, so a bad day all round for Dimension Data.

But what can you say about Kittel? What a week it looks like he's going to have - bosses the first sprint he takes part in, denied the chance to sprint  in the second stage (so we'll not know whether he would have made it two) and then he shoots up the Dam to take a fantastic 6th place, limiting Lobato' s gain to just 4". It will probably have had more of an effect on him psychologically, than winning the first stage, he showed the power is definitely back and with that team around him he could have a very good year indeed. He's 6" behind the new race leader Nizzolo, but he should take care of business tomorrow and win the stage to seal the overall victory. Lobato looks safe enough in 3rd place to land the place money at least.

Almost the same course as last year, just some different roads taken but it is still essentially a crit around the streets of Dubai for three hours or so. That is three hours of not a lot to watch and then 5 minutes of excitement as the sprint leadouts do battle.

Kittel is odds-on to take the stage at 8/11 with PP, and he is probably going to win. But as we saw Tuesday, anything could happen. It's going to be a frantic last 10kms I think as trains battle for position - there are still three riders in with a chance of winning this - possibly even more if they can break away. But it looks to be between Nizzolo and Kittel for the overall and with just 6" between them, there are a number of possible outcomes. If Kittel wins and Nizzolo is worse than 3rd, Kittel wins the GC. If Nizzolo finishes 2nd to Kittel he wins the GC by 2". If Kittel wins and Nizzolo finishes 3rd, they are both on the same time and there's a bit of confusion here - I think that Nizzolo gets it as he actually put a proper time gap between him and Kittel on the Dam, others think Kittel gets it as he would have better head to head results.

The spanner in the works will be if Lobato comes and wins it or finishes 2nd to Kittel - if he wins, he wins the GC.. Can't see that happening based on his sprinting so far, but you'd never know, there could be another crash or something. If he finishes 2nd to Kittel, then it's the same situation - they will be level on time and I think Lobato gets it. So there is a massive incentive for Lobato and Movistar to do a big sprint. I think they are at an advantage in one sense in that it will be expected of EQS, Sky and Trek to control the race.

Movistar can hide away until the last 2kms and it will need a monster effort from Dowsett again to pull Lobato in to a good position - he did it brilliantly today in the last 3kms to help get him to the bottom of the Dam at the front and away from trouble. If they can produce a leadout like that again and get on the wheel of Kittel he could come close.

Mark Cavendish was the closest to Kittel on stage one, but was held up by the crash on stage 2 so couldn't get close enough. Even still, when he tried his sprint he was pretty poor I thought, taking out his frustration on Stepniak, headbutting him as he dared to try to hold Cavendish off. The Dimension Data leadout was already a mess on the first stage and now they have lost Eisel too he might struggle to get a good position tomorrow.

Viviani's Sky team made a mess of it on the first stage but were far better on stage 2, with Swifty doing a great job for him. He has the beating of Cav these days and will be full of confidence following his win. Cav on the other hand will be full of frustration after a puncture took him out of the race today.

Nizzolo just can't seem to get his head in front, no matter who he comes up against and it will probably be the same tomorrow. I think he will be 3rd to 5th. Andrea Guardini has disappointed so far in this race, but took a day off today, rolling in 5 minutes down, he could well have been saving his energy for another crack tomorrow while Kittel, Cav, Viviani and Nizzolo were in a stressful and energy sapping battle. He might just sneak in to the frame at a big looking 25/1 with PP,  he is only 12/1 with Ladbrokes.

Sacha Modolo has been sprinting well this week too and took a good 2nd place on stage 2. I think though that back to a normal sprint now, he won't be able to beat the top sprinters so will probably finish 4th to 9th, one to look for for the in-play market at Bet365. Swift, Vaitkus, Palini, Kolar and Stepniak will all probably be battling for a top ten place too but it will be from places 5-10 I think. 

Kittel will probably win the stage, he's the fastest here and with the best leadout, but Viviani could run him close and Guardini might be the value 'outsider' here. I think it will be very close in the GC and we may even see the likes of Trentin doing his best to try to obstruct and get in front of Nizzolo! If Kittel wins it and he's followed home by Viviani and Cavendish, Nizzolo could be the one to lose out once again. The last 5kms are going to be interesting, that's for sure.

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Elia Viviani at 8/1 with various

0.25pts each-way on Andrea Guardini at 25/1 with Skybet/PP (Skybet are going 1/4 the odds, PP are 1/5 the odds the first 3 so go with Skybet)

 

Matchbets

Viviani to beat Cavendish - 1.5pts at 6/5 with Bet365

Bert de Backer to beat Chris Latham - 1.2pts at 5/6 with Bet365

 

  

Route Map