Dubai Tour - Overall and Stages
Dubai, United Arab Emirates.
The inaugural Dubai Tour starts on the 5th February, with a quality field lining up to battle it out for honours in the desert. Some of the world's best time triallists and world's best sprinters are set to do battle, with some intriguing sub-plots worth keeping an eye on.
The Dubai Tour race is organised by RCS, the same organiser that runs the Giro D'Italia. in association with the Dubai Sports Council. And Dubai being Dubai, there is a touch of luxury, excess and extravagance to the event. The prize they are fighting for is the stunning 'Circle of Stars' trophy, designed by Pinanfarina, more commonly known as the designer of cars such as Ferrari and Maserati.
The jerseys too are more like something out of the Harrods' sports department, as they are Castelli jerseys designed by Versace! So there clearly is plenty of cash splashing around for the race. Probably explains why some of the best riders in the world have been 'persuaded' to go ride the Dubai Tour...
Having said that though, it does make a lot of sense to go to Dubai for a few weeks of training and racing, I certainly wouldn't turn it down if offered the chance! The temperatures are bearable at this time of the year and the races are not too hard, so riders can work on their condition for the bigger goals ahead in the season. This promo video sums up the OTT way everything is done in Dubai...
There are some time bonuses available during the stages, but they are so little it's very probable the opening 10km TT could see it's victor holding on to the leaders jersey right to the end. There are 3,2 and 1 seconds available at the finish of each stage bar the TT and a 1" bonus for intermediate sprints.
The parcours is pretty flat and straightforward for stages 2 and 4, with the only really challenging stage being stage 3 which sees the riders tackle 'medium mountains' reaching heights of 495m. This shouldn't really trouble the majority of the main contenders though as the climb is just a long drag, nothing steep. One thing it will be though is spectacular at times with some of Dubai's most famous landmarks being passed, including the Palm Island Atlantis and the Burj Khalifa skyscraper, the tallest building in the world.
One thing that they will have to be aware of though is the possibilities of cross winds splitting the bunch, the wind can really pick up out in the desert, as symbolised by their graphic above! If riders are caught napping they could miss a split and it could cost them time, but hopefully it shouldn't really be a problem for the protected GC men after the TT.
The Route
Here's a nice video preview of the race with close-ups of each stage
Click on each tab to read stage previews and recommendations.
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Individual Time Trial, Dubai, 9.9km
Wednesday 5th February
The overall winner could be decided inside these first 9.9kms of the race, as the time trial specialists will look to put enough of a gap between themselves and any sprinters to not have to worry about the small time bonuses. The circuit is perfect for the very strong men, even if some of them will only be getting in to their stride by the 10th kilometre. There are long, straight, flat stretches with only a few 90º turns and a 180º at the 4.8km mark where they double back on themselves and head back towards the start/finish area.
It is a fantastic line-up of TT talent that has turned up, with World Champion Tony Martin, Cancellara, Malori and Phinney (1 and 2 in the San Luis TT), Dowsett, Castroviejo and Moser to name some. Martin of course would prefer a longer challenge but is really fired up to win this first test of the season and is reportedly in very good condition, as always at this time of the year. He will love the long straight drags and will be pushing his usual massive gear and he is a really strong favourite to take this stage and put himself in a very strong position for the overall victory too. At 8/11 though he is pretty short for the win, if you think he will win it well you'd be better off backing him for the overall victory at 2/1 with Bet365 .
On paper his closest rival should be his arch-nemesis Cancellara, but Fabian is not on the same programme as Martin is. His targets of course are defending his titles at Flanders and Roubaix and this will be a nice tune-up but not much more I would think. In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he finished outside the top 3, but that's a brave call!
Malori and Phinney were my two picks for the TT in San Luis and they finished 1st and second.. but Phinney blamed a wrong choice of big ring at the front and a mechanical fault that stopped him from changing in to his 11 sprocket at the back for losing what was a big target for him. It might have cost him the 3 seconds and victory but that's history now. Instead, I can see Phinney turning the tables on Malori and taking 2nd place behind Martin. The only problem is that Paddy Power are only 2/1 on him and are paying 1/3 the odds for the first 2.. so that is even worse value than Martin! Bet365 are also taking a cowardly route with this one and offering win only betting at the moment, Phinney is 3/1 there.
Phinney though could be a real threat for the GC as he was flying in San Luis and getting himself involved in a number of sprint finishes, maybe with Dubai in mind, thinking he could do with some sprint practice! If he can stay within 20" of Martin in the TT he could cause him some problems out on the road. It may mean that Cavendish will be put on 'mind Martin' duties, sprinting for every bonus second that Phinney might go after.
Malori should be there or thereabouts too though given his strong showing at San Luis. He was more or less a minute ahead of Boonen, Van den Broeck, Nibali, Kangert etc so he should be well capable of a top 5, if not top 3 here. Paddy Power are 10/1 on him with the each-way betting, apparently he was 25/1 at one point but that quickly was snapped up. Instead I have taken 16/1 each way with Bet365 on their outright market, as I think he can put in a big showing in the TT and could well have 30"+ on some of the sprinters, which could be enough to see him hang on to a podium spot.
The only others that could trouble the top 3 could be Dowsett and Castroviejo, two more TT experts from the Movistar team. Dowsett likes a short TT, and may be worth a small bet at 8/1 to finish in the top 3 with Bet365.
Stage 2
Stage 2 - 'Sports Stage' - Dubai City Centre to Palm Island Atlantis, 122km
Thursday 6th February
Stage two is dubbed the 'Sports Stage' as it takes them past some of the most famous and iconic sporting venues that the incredible city of Dubai has to offer. But the riders won't be looking out for them, they'll be concentrating on staying upright on what is sure to be a fast 122kms. It is almost certainly going to finish in a bunch sprint on the spectacular Palm Island. The riders ride through the heart of the Palm Island before taking a left, then doubling back on themselves to line up for a long, slightly curved run in to the finish. Winds may play an important role towards the finish as they head towards the coast and the exposed stretches of road around the Palm Island. Leadouts will be crucial and there could be small gaps all over the peloton as they hit the finish line so positioning for the GC men may be crucial too.
It should be an interesting sprint to kick off the first of many battles between Kittel and Cavendish over the season. They started their year on opposite sides of the world but neither of them really enjoyed themselves, with Cavendish leading out Boonen in the uphill sprint finishes in San Luis and Kittel and his team screwing up a couple of the TDU stages. He did win the People's Choice race well though so maybe with a nice straight, wide run-in like this Giant-Shimano will deliver him better this time. It will also be interesting to see how Cavendish goes back together with his old HTC Colombia pal Renshaw for the leadout, they were a superb partnership back then.
Of course there is plenty of other sprinting talent on show with Sagan, Farrar, Viviani, Hushovd, Janse Van Rensburg and Nizzolo to name just a few.
**5/2/2014 - Taylor Phinney stormed to a sensational victory in the Dubai Tour time trial today to put himself in to a very strong position to take the overall too. There's a nice 16" gap down to Lasse Norman Hansen who put in a sensational ride for a neo-pro to finish in 3rd place ahead of a very disappointing Tony Martin and a better-than-expected Fabian Cancellara. I don't think BMC will be worried about Norman Hansen and the nearest danger is possibly Sagan in 6th place but he's a full 31" behind. BMC can control things, Phinney will keep himself towards the front and it's going to be very hard to dislodge him.
On to stage 2 then and the dynamic has changed now with the outcome of the TT. Before it started I fancied Kittel to out-do Cavendish in the sprint, especially if OPQS were defending a lead for Martin.. But now Martin has slid down to 4th place there isn't that requirement any more and Cav should have the full train at his disposal including Martin and his pal Renshaw, back with for the first time since their HTC Colombia days when they were supreme.
Cav did an ok Time Trial to finish in the top 30 so his legs are obviously going ok, but Kittel blasted him to finish in 11th, only 38" back from Phinney. So it's a real conundrum given the smaller teams and lack of early season form to go on, but I think I will still stick with Kittel. I feel that in an out-and-out battle to the line between the two of them Kittel has got more power and this finish seems to be a very straight, flat and wide, perfect for Kittel's power. The prices that came out tonight has Cavendish slight favourite over Kittel. Betvictor are taking no chances with Cav, going odds-on at 10/11, compared to best price of 13/8 with Paddy Power. Kittel is generally available at 7/4 and I have had a 3pt bet on that.
Sagan is 3rd favourite at around 6/1 but I'm not tempted by that at all for now. Yes, he did a good time trial but I'd rather back someone like Nizzolo who was winning form from San Luis at 12/1 E/W. Hard to find a strong case for the rest - Hushovd might have a chance in a power sprint like this but he just doesn't have the speed these days. Farrar will find 3 or 4 too good for him again probably and Petacchi and Renshaw will be working for Cav. Cancellara and Phinney may try to get involved in the sprint with their power on a long straight like that but places 5-10 are the best they can hope for I think. Andrea Guardini is also very fast in a sprint like this, he finished 3rd behind Kittel in last year's Scheldenprijs and won no fewer than 6 stages in the 2012 Tour de Langkawi, at 25/1 he is worth a small E/W bet.
Recommendations:
Marcel Kittel to win the stage - 3pts win at 7/4 with Paddy Power
0.5pt E/W on Giaccomo Nizzolo at 12/1 with Bet365
0.5pt E/W on Andrea Guardini at 25/1 with Betvictor
Match bet accumulator - 1pt on Guardini to beat Lobato (11/20), Nizzolo to beat Farrar (1/2), Van Rensberg to beat Maes (2/5), Phinney to beat Hansen (3/10) and Renshaw to beat Veelers (9/20) - the five-fold pays just over 5/1 with Bet365
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Dubai to Atta, 162.3km
Friday 7th February
Stage 3 is the most interesting looking of the stages in that it isn't a flat criterium around Dubai city! The stage still starts in Dubai but slowly drags upwards for about 75kms until they reach Al-Madam, when it then flattens out for about 30km until the reach the feed-zone. It then starts the long drag up to the summit of the first climb at an altitude of 495m. Then it's a fast descent for about 15kms until they start up the final climb.
The first climb shouldn't really see things split up too much, it's not steep enough to cause too much damage, but there could be furious action on the last climb as there's only 7kms to the finish once they crest it. It may see the likes of Cannondale and Trek driving it at the front to try to shed some of the pure sprinters with Sagan and Nizzolo in mind for the finish.
**Update - 06/02/14, 22:00
I didn't get to see today's stage as I was at an event today in London and have only just had a chance to catch up on the highlights on Eurosport. OPQS made a right mess of the leadout, going from too far out and had nothing left to control it at the end. Kittel was really strong and as I predicted loved the power sprint, easily taking it in the end to land my tip at 7/4. Cav did his usual 'If I'm not going to win it I can't be bothered' and drifted out of contention in the run-in. Sagan was very strong taking 2nd, as was Phinney with a stunning 3rd place to add another second to his lead. I was unlucky with the match bet accumulator with Lobato comfortably beating Guardini and Nizzolo was just outside the places in 5th.
Stage 3 looks like it could well end in a sprint finish again even though they go over the 'medium mountains'. The bookies are certainly seeing it this way with Kittel the favourite more or less across the boards, ranging from 10/11 with BetVictor to 13/4 with Bet365. Bet365 are biggest about Kittel because they actually make Sagan favourite, I guess taking the opinion that the hills may just take it out of Kittel a bit more than Sagan.
Depending on the bookie Cav is 2nd or 3rd favourite but I can't be having him again tomorrow, I think if it does come down to a bunch sprint Kittel will take all the beating again and Sagan is the man who will probably get closet to him. You can actually back Sagan at 4/1 with Paddy Power and Kittel at 13/4 with Bet365 so it's a good strategy maybe to cover with an each-way bet on Sagan.
BetVictor have strangely gone with Martin, Cancellara and Phinney as the next three in the betting, as if they are maybe expecting the big men to attack each other towards the finish in a bid for the overall, something you can't put past Martin or Fabian!! But I can't see it, meaning that some of the sprinters further down the list are at pretty decent odds to get in the top 3 - Nizzolo, who won that uphill sprint in San Luis from Boonen and was 5th in St2 is 22/1 and Lobato who finished 4th is 50/1. If you fancy Pippo Pozzato to get involved he is 17/1 with Bet365 but 50/1 with Paddy Power.
WInds may well play a part in the outcome today but that was also feared about stage 2 and it didn't seem to have a major effect on spltting the race or anything dramatic like that, so I think they should be able to get to the finish together, all depends on how hard they push it on the hill, if it really is eyeballs out Kittel may struggle a little, but I think he should be ok and will make it two from two.
Recommendations:
3pt win on Marcel Kittel at 13/4 with Bet365
1pt E/W on Peter Sagan at 4/1 with Paddy Power
0.5pt E/W on Giacomo Nizzolo at 22/1 with Bet365
0.5pt e/w on Juan Jose Lobato at 50/1 with Bet365
**In Play Twitter bets - 1pt on Kittel at 14/1 and 1pt win on Pliuschin at 39/1 with Bet365
Match Bet four-fold: Van Rensburg to beat Pettachi, Kittel to beat Cavendish, Nizzolo to beat Lobato and Sagan to beat Phinney - the 4-fold pays 9/4 with Bet365.
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Dubai to Burj al Khalifa - 120.5km
Saturday 8th February
The final stage is just a tour of the Dubai city landscape once again, taking in the old city and the sparkling new. It is a little bit more twisty than the TT course with plenty of bends and turns to negotiate but there is little chance again of it finishing in anything other than a bunch sprint finish.
**Update - 07/02, 17:30 - Early preview tonight as I am going out celebrating a friends 40th and celebrating a fantastic result in today's stage for me! Kittel backed beforehand at 13/4, and then when I logged on in-play, Bet365 were offering him at 14/1, with about 40kms to go and a 'hope in hell' break about 
2'30" up the road. I couldn't believe it - so he was just over 3/1 before the race and now he is 14/1? Had the hills got steeper? Was he hanging off the back? No, not that I could see. So had another point at 14/1 in-play.
As it turned out he put in an incredible performance - he went 'DEEP' as he tweeted afterwards to not only hang on to the main bunch, which had been reduced to about 40 riders, but also to come through and comfortably take the stage again. A brilliant win and a brilliant result for me, compounded by Lobato taking second at my 50/1 recommended each-way and Sagan 3rd at my 4/1 each way. Lobato did bust my match bet though again, the only one letting me down for a second day running, should have left him alone!
So on to the final stage and it looks like Kittel's to lose again. Cav may have something to say about it and will be desperate to at least get his train practicing a proper lead out and sprint before they leave Dubai, but I still think Kittel will be too good for him. He is full of confidence but what will today's performance have taken out of him? It was an incredible effort to win that stage given the uphill profile towards the finish, he used to get dropped on motorway sliproads not so long ago.. But then again Cav also put in a big effort to hang with that group, but he didn't have anything left at the finish and rolled in last of the first group.
At the time of writing Paddy Power were the only bookie with prices up and they went evens Kittel, 5/2 Cavendish and 6/1 Sagan, neither of which really offer any interest to me, but how about Phinney at 50/1, he is clearly flying and I wouldn't put it past him to give it one last effort to work on his sprinting training which he says he has been working a lot on over the winter. The boy clearly has bigger targets in mind and I for one am looking forward to seeing him involved at the business end in some of the classics this year, couldn't resist a little 33/1 on him for Paris-Roubaix today with my winnings.
Phinney's a great guy, might have told this story before, but we met him after his 4th place run in the Olympic TT in Hampton Court, and although tired looking and dragging a large USA suitcase behind him he stopped to have his pic taken with my boy.. he posed and then said "Hey, nice bike dude" to my son, which he was blown away by.. Phinney's mum, dad and younger sister was also there, they could be twins they look so alike, but such a cool, nice family, just mingling and chatting with people outside Hampton Court like normal fans. Needless to say my boy is a massive fan since and trains now in a BMC kit like Phinneys.. If only he had kept his eyes open for the photo!
Recommendations:
4pts on Kittel at evens with Paddy Power (or better if it comes out later)
1pt e/w on Phinney at 50/1 with Paddy Power
Overall Contenders and Favourites
At the time of writing this on Tuesday evening only Bet365 had come out with their prices and there was nothing really too attractive in their prices, although Tony Martin at 2/1 did look like the most likely winner and may look like massive value once the TT is over and he is 35" ahead of his nearest rival! Looking down the list though I did like Molari at 16/1 as I have already explained in my preview of stage 1. That was before I guess Bet365 figured out the small difference time bonuses are going to make and they had taken a few bets on Martin and Malori.. They closed their overall market around 10pm and reopened it later with Martin now 6/4 and Malori at 7/1. Phinney is now 7/4 from 3/1 I think it was beforehand so they have strangled most of the value out of the market now.
I'll watch for other bookies to open their markets and update here accordingly - make sure you keep an eye on Twitter too as that is where I can update on odds etc the quickest. Ladbrokes opened their market on the 5th with Phinney their 11/8 favourite and Martin at 9/4 and that was too tempting so I had another point bet on that too - he was 6/4 generally elsewhere.
Recommended Bets:
Tony Martin - 3pts win for the Dubai Tour overall at 2/1 with Bet365
Tony Martin - 1pt win for the Dubai Tour overall at 9/4 with Ladbrokes
Adriano Malori - 1pt Each-Way for the overall at 16/1 with Bet365
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