Details: Published on Wednesday, 02 July 2014 00:30

Tour de France Stage1

Leeds to Harrogate

Saturday July 5th, 190.5kms

Here we go then! Stage one, in Yorkshire - the long awaited Grand Depart! A stage that on paper is supposedly one for Mark Cavendish to write the fairytale headlines for the TDF's venture across Le Manche. Mark Cavendish wins the stage in the town where his mother used to live and dons the yellow jersey for the first time in his career! If only it was as straightforward and simple as that!

Just like in 2013 there is no prologue Time Trial to start the race, instead a road stage around Yorkshire from Harrogate to Leeds. The neutralised start is scheduled for 11.10am with the official start near Arthington set for 12pm. Expect a large amount of riders trying to get in the break of the day to not only get the early exposure for their sponsors but also maybe to avoid any of the possible first stage crashes back in the bunch!

With everyone starting fresh and full of energy it could be a frantic opening 40kms or so until the break goes and I'd expect 6-10 riders to go up the road and fight it out for the first KOM jersey as there are 3 climbs to get over during the day, the Cat 4 Cote de Cray after 68kms, the fabulously named Cote de Buttertubs after 103.5kms and finally the Cote de Griton Moor with 129kms gone. It looks like it will be a day for the sprinters though and if the not-so-pure sprinters want to have more of a chance then they need to get their teams to try to drill it up the Cote de Buttertubs first to put them under pressure and then again on the Cote de Grinton Moor.

Chances are though that they will probably all get to the finish together though to fight it out for the stage win.

The Route

Not too long nor not too short, the opening stage is one that will ease the riders in to the race with a mostly flat day but has three short but sharp climbs to get over along the way. It's quite a rolling stage though and there could be some incidents along the way, especially if there is rain and wind, which unfortunately is forecast. The current prediction is for 60% chance of rain, with temperatures around 22 degrees.

After leaving Leeds they climb gently for more or less the first 65kms or so on a rolling route that takes them past Skipton and Threshfields in to North Yorkshire. After 66kms they hit the Cote de Cray, which is a short but sharp 1.6kms at 7.1%. Then they pass the Intermediate sprint at Newbiggin with 77km gone, but the likelihood is that the points will have been taken by the break.

The next climb of the Cote de Buttertubs starts with 99kms gone and is 4.5kms at 6.8% and is quite tough in parts and just 26kms later they are over the final major obstacle of the day, the Cote de Grinton, which is 3kms long at 6.6% average. From there it is a fast charge down towards Harrogate to the sprint finish. But it's a far from straight forward finish that they face in Harrogate. They come straight into Harrogate on the Ripon Road which is quite rolling coming in to town. They hit a steep rise before the short, sharp drop down towards the Spa, then another short, steep run up Parliament Street towards the Stray.

This finish is not one for the pure sprinters as far as I am concerned and it could make for a real messy finish. The last steep pull up tops out with 400m to go but it still rises slightly all the way to the line.

Route Map

Profile

Last Kms

TDF-stage 1-lastkm

Contenders and Favourites

As I mentioned above, this is not the straight forward sprint finish that everyone seemed to think it was when the route was announced first. Cavendish was odds-on favourite to win the stage and all everyone could talk about was how big it was going to be that Cav would win in the first stage of the Tour in Britain, near where his mum came from. There was the public banter between him and Kittel when Kittel said he fancied himself for the stage.

Mark Cavendish has been in good form this year as usual, winning stages in the Vuelta ao Algarve, Tirreno-Adriatico, Tour of Turkey, Tour of Cali and in the Tour de Suisse. He comes here with his powerful Omega Pharma Quick Step squad who are one of the best at leading him out at the finish. Sure he is going to be fired up for this one, sure he will be given every assistance to get him in the right place. And sure it would be a hugely celebrated victory if he does take it.

The thing is, I don't think he will take it though. In fact, I don't know if he will even be in the first 3 here. A crazy, hectic finish (possibly in rain) could see some problems for some, and Cav is no stranger to coming a cropper in the last few kms of sprints. As they come up the Ripon Road, the road does rise in a long drag which I can see Cannondale, Katusha and Giant Shimano really drilling it in an attempt to derail Cavendish's charge.

But even then, when they get to Parliament street for the last 800m or so, it kicks up in a manner that might just be too much for Cavendish. He may just down tools and save it for Monday on the Mall. I will be looking to lay him to place on the day as I think that might be a nice bet indeed.

kittel-wins-dublin-giro-stage3 Giant Shimano have two cards to play here. I was in Dublin when Marcel Kittel came from an absolute mile back past us at the 125m to go mark and won an impossible stage victory on the pull up hill to the finish, denying Ben Swift. If he can reproduce that sort of finish Saturday, no one will beat him. If Kittel doesn't fancy it and it seems like he has said that it isn't a great finish for him, then they have John Degenkolb to step in and go for it. He looks an interesting price at 27/1 with William Hill (he was as big as 50/1 earlier in the week).

Peter Sagan will surely fancy this finish too - the drag up the Ripon Road will stretch the sprinters. The pull up to the Stray will be perfect for him to launch one of his trademark blistering attacks and he should be able to hold them off in the 400m run to the line. The 9/1 with Coral looks an interesting each-way price.

André Greipel has also been winning regularly this year, taking 11 victories in total, most recently in the German National road race last weekend. He has avoided all the big races though this year, not doing the Giro, The Criterium or the Tour de Suisse so we haven't really seen him against any of his big rivals yet this year. I am not sure he will like this finish too much either and I think he might be outside the top 5 even.

Arnaud Démare is another who could well enjoy this stage. He likes a lumpy finish and has a great finishing kick on him. His problem though is his team - FDJ have a habit of screwing up lead-outs and often blow great winning opportunities for Démare. I can't be trusting them to deliver Arnaud in the right place at the right time so I am skipping over him.

Kristoff-milansanremo2013 Finally we have two more live chances in Alexander Kristoff for Katusha and Micheal Matthews for OGE. Kristoff has been firing in the wins this season as well, none bigger and better than his win in Milan-San-Remo. Three stages in the Tour of Norway and Tour des Fjords and an unlucky fourth in stage 5 of the Tour de Suisse when he seemed to be full of speed but got boxed in. He too should like this finish and should be able to fight for the right wheels (Giant-Shimano's or Sagan's) and could be involved in the finish at a big looking 25/1.

Michael Matthews specialises in these kinds of finishes and comes here with a very strong OGE squad who are here to hunt stages. SImon Gerrans could well be one to win a stage like this on another day, but I think Matthews will be given the nod and led out by some super strong lead-out men in Hayman, Durbridge, Clarke and Keukeleire. His form is good too, surprisingly winning the ITT in the Tour de Slovenia recently, showing that his legs are strong. At 50/1 with Corals he could be a dark horse for the stage win. Let's just hope the news of Darryl Impey being caught for a positive sample for Probnecid, a banned substance won't upset the harmony and spirit in the team too much.

It's a really hard one to call though and maybe one to keep stakes low on as there really could be any one of about 10 who could realistically win the stage. I haven't even mentioned the likes of Coquard, Modolo, Goss, Rojas, Van Poppel or Farrar! I am happy to take on Cavendish though and once a bit of liquidity comes in to the market I'll be looking to lay him to place, hopefully at 1.6 or shorter, but I will possibly go up as far as 1.8 if I need to.

As for the win, Peter Sagan has to have a real chance of winning I think and the 9/1 looks a stand-out bet, he is only 6/1 in places. I think Marcel Kittel might be bluffing a little and if he is in a position to challenge coming in to the last kilometre he will be right up there and the 3/1 on him looks worth a small nibble if you don't fancy Sagan.

Recommendations

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 9/1 with Corals

Lay Mark Cavendish to come in the top 3 6pts win to lose 4pts (laid him to place at 1.66)

0.3pts each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 25/1 with Ladbrokes.

Match Bets