Stage 2 

 

Stage 2 - Ras al Khaimah Stage

Wednesday, February 1st, 188kms

Not a bad start then, with it almost working out perfectly - I named 5 riders to watch and they all finished in the first five, just Modolo was last of the five rather than up in 3rd for place! Kittel easily won the sprint to land the odds for us, Groenewegen wasn't far behind him though and Mark Cavendish was an admirable 3rd. Admirable, because he hit a pothole with 4kms to go and sprinted to 3rd with a flat tyre. (right)

You can see in the closing stages in the video below just how much his bike was sliding around as he was trying to sprint, it clearly cost him a lot of ground. John Degenkolb was 4th, not far off some bonus seconds, with Modolo in 5th. Viviani did as I expected him to do and finish around 6th, Drucker, Consonni, Von Hoff and Blythe rounded out the top 10.

 

 

Move of the day though came from Silvan Dillier who took the bull by the horns today and went out in the break of the day. In doing so he picked up 4 bonus seconds, to move him in to 6th in the GC. Nicola Boem did even better, picking up 7", putting him in 2nd overall, just 3" behind Kittel. And Thomas Stewart flies the flag for One Pro Cycling, sitting in 4th in the GC

Unlucky rider of the day no. 2 could be Sony Colbrelli, who managed to fall off his bike while they were crawling around the roundabout with about 3kms to go, taking him out of the sprint. He seemed to be right in the middle of the pack though so I'm not sure he'd have featured anyway. So with the matchbet double winning and Lobato and Alaphilippe doing exactly as I thought they would, we notched a nice 8.4pt profit on day one of the Tour.  

This is an all new stage, but not a lot to say about it really, it's flat, they spend a little bit of time in the desert, but quite a lot of time right on the coast, so if the wind does pick up at all there might be some splits. It's a relatively long stage at 188kms, so those who are feeling it out the back may well get detached if the cross-winds blow, so everyone will have to stay alert. It's highly likely to just finish in another high-speed sprint though in Ras al Khaimah, a town hosting a stage for the first time. 

So what do we make of today's outcome with a view to tomorrow's stage then? Well Quickstep looked ominous when they powered to the front inside the last 2kms, they still had five men in front of Kittel. Even then though, they seemed to fall away pretty quick, so that with 500m to go he was down to his last leadout man, and was let go with about 250m to go, which I feared for a while might have been too far out and he could have been mugged.. But he was just too powerful for them, no one could come around him, Cav hindered in his efforts by the puncture no doubt. I think they will only get better though and may well drop him off with less than 200m to go next time, and it will be the same story. 

Dimension Data seemed to do a lot of work out on the course, maybe too much, but they too should be better tomorrow. Cavendish should get closer too without another incident like today, but I am not sure he will be able to beat Kittel, I think Kittel may well have had another gear if someone had come in to his peripheral vision. Top 3 again, but not the win I think. 

Can Groenewegen get any closer? Possibly - he may have to wait for an uphill sprint finish though - it could be top 3 again for him tomorrow, but I can't see him turning the tables on Kittel either. The 4/1 with Paddy Power is almost tempting as one of my 'bet to nothings' each-way, but I'm not sure I'd class Groenewegen in the same league as Sagan yet when it comes to consistency of podium finishing, so I think I'll leave it. 

John Degenkolb looked to have been blocked in and took a while to wind up his sprint, but even then he didn't reall make a big impression on the front three, it will be hard to see him beat any or all of them based on today, especially if Cav can have a clear run, so the 14/1 is about right, it will take an incident to one of the top three today to see him podium I think. Modolo just wasn't good enough today, I don't know if Viviani or Colbrelli will be able to challenge either, and the likes of Blythe, Von Hoff and the rest are 2nd division compared to these guys, they'll be filling places 5-10 again. 

It's almost a no-bet day, but I think I'll play up some of those winnings today on Kittel - not a lot, just in case, but at 8/11 I think he's worth another shot. I know I made that mistake last year on the second stage when he was odds on, and I can see a bizarre case of Deja Vu, but I think this sprint finish is pretty straight-forward with no tunnels to negotiate like stage 2 last year. 

One guy though that I want to have a small bet on, simply because he was up there today and he is a massive 200/1, is Simone Consonni. The Italian U23 champion is a decent sprinter in his own right, as was evident in his his 8th place today, despite leading out Modolo, maybe they'll give him a chance to go for it one of these days. He was 2nd in the U23 World's Road Race in Richmond in 2015 and has a number of decent results to his name over the last two years. 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Marcel Kittel at 8/11 with Skybet

0.2pts each-way on Simone Consonni at 200/1 with Ladbrokes

 

Matchbets

Groenewegen to beat Viviani and Degenkolb to beat Modolo - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365

Drucker to beat Blythe - 3pts at 8/11 with 365

 

Route Map

 

 

Stage 3 

Stage 3 - Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage

Thursday February 2rd, 200kms

A really messy sprint, but Quickstep rescued what looked like being a disaster in the last kilometre to set up another win for Kittel. They had to do it the hard way, even though they looked in good shape with 2kms to go, a left hand bend with 1500m left saw the six QS riders suddenly all over the place, with riders looking around for Kittel. He was brought back up to his two leadout men by a rider I couldn't make out, but possibly Trentin, but he did a great job to get him on the wheels of the leadout with just 500m to go..

Even then, it looked like he was not going to get up, as the (shoddy, again) camerawork focused on the left hand side where Groenewegen was bursting through. But Kittel showed his immense power and perfect timing to take it on the line. 

Dylan Groenewegen showed again that he is the 2nd best sprinter in the race, he might have just gone a little too early though, and Kittel mugged him on the line. Cavendish picked the wrong wheel and got boxed in and finished a disappointing and frustrated 7th. Jakub Marezcko took the 3rd spot with a smart sprint, degenkolb and Modolo were again 4th and 5th, but no sign of Viviani again. JJ Lobato sprinted again though to take 7th place, so his legs are pretty good too by the looks of things. Adam Blythe secured another top 10 for Aqua Blue. 

Jempy Drucker went in the break of the day and picked up 6" from the intermediate sprints, he was unable to hold his place in the sprint though, even though he was in about 5th place at one point, his fatigue saw him get bumped around a little and he eased off to finish outside the top 10. He has moved up to 4th on the GC though, 14" behind Kittel, and could well have put himself in with a shot at the podium now. Kittel extends his lead to 8" over Boem though and is looking pretty good now for the overall. 

The longest stage of the race at 200kms, in fact, the longest in the Tour's history, there also isn't a great deal we can say about this stage, other than it's a longer version of stage 1 of the last two years. They do spend quite a lot of it in the desert though as they head from the west coast to the east coast to the town of Al Aqah, and there is a little rise in elevation, at least compared to the pan-flat opening two stages, where dips in to tunnels and rises over bridges are about the only changes in elevation. 

As they cross the desert they go over the Hajar mountains, reaching 300m in height, before descending down to Fujairah, which was a stage finish town last year. This time though they turn left and head north along  the Indian Ocean coast. Their will be a reasonably strong westerly wind tomorrow, rising to around 22mph by the time they finish. This will be a tail-wind for most of the day, and when they turn left at Fujairah the wind will then be coming from their left hand side. They will be protected a little by the Hajar mountains to their left but it could still cause problems and splits so they will have to be on their toes. 

There is an intermediate sprint with just 18kms to go which is sure to be hotly contested too, and the run-in to Al Aqah isn't exactly flat either, as there are a few little hills to get over. The last 500m are pretty straight, but unlike the flat sprints of the first two days, this one rises at around a 2% gradient, to make it a little bit more interesting. 

It may be a day we see a break go, with the Hatta Dam stage the next day and the run through the desert and over the Hajar mountains, but it's most likely to finish in yet another sprint, albeit a slightly trickier run-in.

More of the same then? Probably - the rise to the line gives it a slight change, but will it make any difference to the outcome? Paddy Power priced up stage 3 not long after stage 1 finished, and even though Marcel Kittel was 8/11 for stage 2, they went 5/4 for stage 3.. Obviously there was a bit of premium in there that he may not win today, or he had an accident or something, but also maybe they are thinking some of the others might have a better shot at him with the uphill finish. Based on that sprint today though, and how strong Quickstep were, that had to be taken. I think it will be they will be doing the splitting in the wind, rather than being caught out. PP hadn't updated their prices, he probably should be 4/6 and not 5/4.  

Dylan Groenewegen might be the one who gets closest to him again this time, he doesn't mind an uphill finish as we saw in a number oif races last year, like his victory in the Tour de l'Eurometropole (1.5% for last 400m), The Het Ster ZLM, his second up the hill to Piccadilly Circus in the TOB and so on. It is only a slight rise, but it might turn the tables slightly in his favour. He was excellent again today and looks to be the one who may challenge Kittel the closest this week - looks like PP's traders were not in or watching the result of today's stage, as he was 6/1 with them after the stage, I think that has to be taken each-way too, he's a pretty decent shot at landing a podium again, and I give him a better chance of winning tomorrow than today, when he was just 4/1.

Mark Cavendish was unlucky again today, one of these days his luck will change and his anger will propel him to a stage win, but at 4/1 I'm not interested. John Degenkolb should also possibly go better on this slight uphill drag, but he seems to be missing that vital bit of zip to take him on to the podium.. Jakub Marezcko came very close today, he was still available at 40/1 with Paddies for tomorrow, and that was worth a nibble purely as he will probably be 20/1 or so once they re-price the market based on today's results. 

Lobato, Modolo, Colbrelli (unlucky again today with a puncture), Blythe, Drucker, Minali, Viviani - they will be fighting for places 5-10 again I think. 

So a great chance for a hat-trick of stage wins for Kittel, and to maybe put the GC to bed, but Groenewegen can land a top 3 again for us I hope. 

Recommendations:

4pts win on Marcel Kittel at 5/4 with PP 

1pt each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 6/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Jakub Marezcko at 40/1 with PP

 

Matchbets

Marezcko to beat Minali, Kittel to beat Groenewegen, Cav to beat Viviani, Degenkolb to beat Modolo and Lobato to beat Consonni - 2pts on the accumulator at 5.33/1 with Bet365

 

Route Map

 

 

Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Westin Stage

Friday February 3rd, 172kms

So we got some echelon action in today's stage, the wind, along with crashes saw splits come with still well over 110kms to go. At first Kittel was caught out in the 3rd group on the road as a result of getting caught up in the crashes it seemed, and as usual, Mark Cavendish managed to get in to the front group along with Renshaw and a few other team-mates.

Soon after it started to transpire that there was something more to Kittel's bloody face (right) when Patrick Lefevre tweeted that Kittel had been 'beaten' by an Astana rider, with later footage showing Kittel complaining to the commissaires and making an 'elbowing' gesture. The perpetrator was Andrey Grivko and he was duly booted out of the race for punching Kittel in the face, breaking his glasses and cutting his eyebrow. 

So for a while there were echelons and three groups, with a break up the road that contained Loic Vliegen, getting his supporters who picked him out at big prices a little excited for a while. But the main groups came back together pretty quickly again though, it all settled down, and once they took that left turn on the coast, there were no real further problems as they were a bit more protected. 

So it was all set up for a standard sprint then, with Quickstep looking like they were dominant with 2kms to go. Then they disappeared in to a tunnel, and it all seemed to fall apart for them again, with Quickstep all over the place, down about 30 places. They tried to get Kittel back to the front, but he lost the wheel of Sabatini and had to fight for himself to get up near the front, and with 50m to go he sat up, resigned to the fact he would not be competing. Cavendish was even further out of the picture, despite the confusion caused by the fact that a Dimension Data rider was sprinting for the win - everyone assumed it was Cav, but in fact it was Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg.

But John Degenkolb came late to nab him on the line, to land his biggest win since his accident, he and Koen de Kort are a pretty good team.. And not only were Kittel and Cav out of the places, so too was Groenewegen, who could only manage 8th place, with his team-mate Lobato sprinting separately and landing 4th, just outside the bonuses. Instead it was 40/1 shot Sonny Colbrelli who got up to take 3rd, to make up for two disappointing days before this. 

What it means now though is that the GC is really still up for grabs - Degenkolb is only 10" behind Kittel and tomorrow should suit him better than Kittel. Can he repeat his feat from 2015 and get a gap of 10" plus? If he does, as long as he picks up some time bonus seconds on the final stage then he could be our winner. There are still 59 riders within 20" of the lead though and 13 within 16" so it's still all to play for. 

A poor day for us bets wise, it's annoying that I got it right in terms of it finishing in a bunch sprint, but to not get either Kittel or Groenewegen in the first three was very disappointing. Almost back to scratch then after an 8pt loss today, but we're still 2.6pts up and the GC bets are looking pretty good too, with our three selections still in with a shot and the matchbet double looks like being a winner too. 

This was supposed to be exactly the same stage as last year's stage 3 to the Hatta Dam, but the organisers have decided this afternoon to shorten the stage and to start it at Hatta instead of Dubai. This was a decision taken as a result of the dangerous conditions today, and the fact that it was forecast to be even wilder crossing the desert tomorrow. So now they are starting in Hatta and doing two laps of a rolling circuit, before finishing up the Dam as usual. The route is not just 109kms instead of 172kms, but the finish is still the same, so the riders know exactly what to expect this time around again.

The stage now starts at Hatta and heads out west and then north on a circuit of 51.1kms that they do twice. The roads are quite rolling, but the climbs are the same sort of rolling drags we saw today, rather than anything too difficult - from a very rudimentary calculation on the profile, the climbs are around 4-6kms long, at averages of between 1-3%.

They still head towards Munay and through Huwaylat again at the end of the circuit and the final section of the race is exactly the same as previous years as they head towards the final climb up to the Hatta Dam. From the 20km to 5km to go mark the road is a rough concrete surface called Wadis, something to watch out for, as is sand accumulation on the desert roads. 

The final climb to the dam is quite gentle at first but then kicks up for the last 350m, hitting 17% average for the last 200m. It isn't very long though, so it is possible, as we saw in the last few years for sprinters to feature up here - it's all about an explosion of power for just 500m or so.    

Positioning is crucial - they come in to the climb around that bend on the right of the picture and up the road to the dam at the top left corner. As Degenkolb showed two years ago when he got a fantastic lead-in from his team-mates, a strong sprinter can outgun the climbers.

So here we go then - the decider.. Can Kittel pull off a ride like last year and seal the GC? Can Degenkolb repeat his charge up the hill in 2015, or will Lobato be phoning home with news of another win like last year? (on a non-Movistar phone this year though of course....) And one other thing to worry them ahead of tomorrow - rain is forecast, believe it or not, in the early afternoon. Not a lot, but with the slippery roads and the winds, it could add to the carnage..

Will the course change make any difference? Well, they are not going through the wide open desert planes any more, but still they are going to be buffeted by winds from all directions now as they are going on a loop. So there is still loads of chances of cross-winds splitting things up and echelons forming, westerly winds of 30-35mph are forecast. The stage is only 109kms now though so it is going to be fast and furious from the start and it will be difficult for a break to build much of a lead, as the GC teams will want to try to keep it together. 

Juan José Lobato has a big chance of repeating his win from last year. He looks to be in good form, helping lead out Groenewegen to two successive 2nd place finishes, yet has also sprinted himself in to a 12th, 6th and 4th place. Clearly the legs are good and it's a pity that Groenewegen is here as he may well have done even better in the sprints had LottoNL been leading him out instead in the first two stages.

As it is though, he is still in with a shout of at least a top 3 finish here. There's no guarantee that Marcel Kittel will stay within 10-20" on the Dam if he really lights it up, so we could see him leapfrog over Kittel in to the lead with the 10" bonus. Marcell Kittel looked tired to me at the end of the stage, the stress of the day seemed to have got to him and he might crumble again tomorrow.. Might, but also he is going for the overall, so he will be going eyeballs out to try to finish as close as possible to the front, and he has one of the best teams here to get him in to position.

If Lobato does win and gets himself in with a chance of winning the GC, LottoNL's tactics should change for the last stage to riding for him in the last sprint, including for the intermediates. It was encouraging to see him sprint in to 4th today, he looks ready for this. 

He should be there at the front hitting the last right-hander up the hill, and if he's in the first 4 or 5 it's unlikely he'll be beaten based on his ride up there last year. He's got the kick at the bottom to put them all under pressure, and the kick at the top to pull away from them.

Giacomo Nizzolo came very close last year, so he showed that 'pure' sprinters can do well on this short power burst. He's not here this year, but the winner from the year before is in the same mould - John Degenkolb. That was a huge surprise at the time when Degs burst up the hill and left all the 'climbers' behind, but after a second year of results on the hill it wasn't all that surprising a sprinter did so well there after all. Degenkolb had been so close to a top 3 this week, with two narrow 4th place finishes, but he landed a superb victory today in a messy sprint. He had been clearly riding well, but no match for the speedsters on the flat in the first two stages. Will he be able to repeat that win from two years ago? It's very possible now.. I was beginning to get worried that he still isn't the John Degenkolb from before the accident. He seemed to lack that little bit of extra zip.. but today made me feel a bit better about his chances.

Silvan Dillier last year was the Degenkolb of 2015, pulling off a surprise 3rd place - such a surprise that the commentators were saying it was Gilbert who the BMC rider who rolled over the line in 3rd until they were corrected with the results screen. In fact, Gilbert, 2nd or 3rd favourite for the stage I think, was behind him in 5th place. Dillier seemed to set his stall out early in this race, going in the break on stage 1 and taking bonus seconds, so he now sits 16" behind Kittel. He could be good enough for a top 3 again, but I don't think it will be enough to move him in to the top 3 on the GC. 

I think Dylan Groenewegen, Elia Viviani, Mark Cavendish, Kittel and Drucker will struggle to break in to the top 5 here, but Sonny Colbrelli could be one of the sprinters that can kick it up the hill in the style of Degenkolb or Nizzolo. Winner of 7 races last year, most of which were on lumpy courses, Colbrelli showed he has good legs today with his fine 3rd place. He was unlucky on the first two stages with an innocuous crash and a late puncture taking him out of the sprints, but he was certainly up there today. Bahrain Merida landed their first win of the season with Navardauskas in the TT in San Juan, but they would certainly love to take this big win in Dubai. 

Daniele Bennati got closest yet today too, landing 10th place for Movistar, he was 8th on the Dam last year. That sprint from him today shows that he has good legs too, it was a messy finish, but he knows what you have to do on this climb and he could be top 6 as well.. Top 3 though is a big ask I think.

Julian Alaphilippe is 3rd favourite with the bookies at 5/1 and it's hard to know how he is going, we've not seen him all week.. He hasn't contested any of the sprints, so he's either not in great form and he's just staying hidden away, or he's been looking after himself for a real attack on this hill on Friday. We know he goes well up steep finishes, his two 2nd places on the Mur de Huy of Fleche-Wallone are testament to that. He could well be up there, but I fear he will be asked to help Kittel to get to the top as fast as possible, all the team will be looking after Kittel.. So with that doubt in my mind I can't recommend him at 5/1.

Reinhart Janse Van Rensburg could have a say in this climb, he sprinted very well today to almost take the win. It depends on whether he is asked to look after Cav I guess. Enrico Gasparotto has a chance based on his Ardennes Classics form of last year, but he may be asked to help Colbrelli - if Colbrelli isn't in the mix, he might have a shot at it. Samu Sanchez has gone well here, he might be top 10 again, but I don't know if he'll be good enough to podium - he should do better than his team-mate Dylan Teuns in the match bet though. 

And then you have the guys who might either go in the early, or late breaks, maybe looking to split it up in the winds and echelons and blow the race apart. Matteo Trentin is of course one that immediately comes to mind, he's excellent in the winds and echelons and may be sent up the road in order to try to give the rest of the team an easier run-in. But he's just 16/1 with Paddy Power, the 22/1 with Bet365 is a bit better.

Daniel Oss, Loic Vliegen (even though he was on the attack today), Floris Gerts, Dylan Teuns, Nelson Oliveira, Laurens de Vreese and so on, they could all try to make the breaks.Gianni Moscon might be Sky's best option here too. 

It's a tough one to call though - the winds could blow everything apart again, but I think we will still see the usual group finish and the battle up the Dam. I think Lobato might just have the edge over Degenkolb, Deggers is just too short for me at that price, I actually thought Lobato would be favourite, so I am ok with taking 5/2. Sonny Colbrelli might offer a touch of value at 14/1 each-way, and I also think Dillier will be going all out here again, he showed on stage 1 that he has good legs, he got a good training day in that day.. at 18/1 with Paddy Power he might also be worth keeping onside. 

 

Recommendations:

2pts win on JJ Lobato at 5/2 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Silvan Dillier at 18/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 14/1 with Paddy Power  

 

Matchbets

Dillier to beat Alaphilippe - 2pts at 6/5 with 365

Daniele Bennati to beat Van Rensburg - 1pt at 13/8

Samu Sanchez to beat Teuns, Colbrelli to beat Consonni and Groenewegen to beat Cav - 2pts on the treble at 1.8/1 with 365 

  

Route Map

 

Profile

Final Climb

Stage 5

Stage 5 - Dubai Silicon Oasis Stage

Saturday February 4th, 124kms

Well that was all a bit disappointing, extreme weather protocol saw the stage blown away, with the riders seemingly coming together as one and forcing the organisers hands to cancel it. It seemed like the right decision based on the footage of the sandstorms that were raging all around them. The right decision, but Degenkolb could barely hide his annoyance when tweeting to say they respected the decision. And of course, despite it being the right decision, it was bloody annoying that we didn't get to see the only redeeming feature of this race, and I'll never know if the hours put in to writing a preview would have paid off!

Just a point of note though from watching the various clips doing the rounds from the likes of Quickstep, Julian Alaphilippe didn't look like a guy who was fired up and focused for today's stage, he was clowning around, massaging Bob Jungels legs and getting piggy backs and so on.. I'm not sure his backers would have been collecting today on him.. 

And so it looks like the GC is sewn up more or less, unless something bizarre happens tomorrow. Kittel just needs to place in the top 3 to guarantee victory, unless someone like Degenkolb or Groenewegen collected maximum intermediate bonus seconds. Or unless a break goes and wins with someone leapfrogging in to the lead.. but that's pretty unlikely. If Degenkolb wins and Kittel is out of the top 3, Degenkolb will go level on time with him, but wins based on they having two stages each, but JD has a better countback with two 4th place finishes. 

If Groenewegen wins and Kittel is outside the top 3 then the Dutchman takes the title. If it stays as it is, we will finish with a nice 13/8 winner in Marcel Kittel and the place on Degenkolb in 3rd. Together with the matchbet double on Alaphilippe and Groenewegen that should add another 9.2pts to the pot this week, so taking us up to 11.8pts excluding tomorrow's results.

The final stage, a final sprint. It's a featureless criterium around the skyscrapers and famous landmarks of Dubai, but nothing to get excited about, route-wise. The stage might add a little extra drama as the GC is still technically up for grabs though, with intermediate sprints coming after 73kms and 97kms, and the final 10" bonus on the line. Last year's win by Kittel in the final stage secured victory for him and we could well see a similar story this year as a victory, or even a top 3 finish, wins the race for him

The route is almost the same as last year, but the finish is slightly different, they just need to watch out for the sharp right, then left with around 1500m to go and then the final right hander that takes them to the last 500m for the sprint on the City Walk.  

I was hoping to be writing a preview here where Degenkolb or Lobato had put it up to Kittel on the Hatta Dam and it really came down to a massive sprint battle for the overall.. As it is, it is still a sprint battle for the overall, but Kittel has that little buffer. Kittel and Groenewegen need to win, and hope that Kittel gets lost again in the sprint and he scores zero seconds.

Marcel Kittel has opened though with Paddy Power at a ridiculous 8/13.. Ridiculous in that he completely fluffed it on stage 3 and almost blew it on stage 2. He looked shattered at the end of stage 3 after a hard and stressful day in the sand, the punch to the head clearly had rattled him quite a bit. How can you back him with confidence at that price after that? Ok, he looked super-impressive when winning on stage 1, and rather than busting a gut up the Dam today, he had an unexpected rest day, but I just have a small feeling that he might be there for the taking. He knows 2nd or 3rd will give him the overall win, so he should be contesting, but he could be vulnerable. 

Can Dylan Groenewegen finally land his stage win? He's come very close so far, and now with Lobato's chances out the window, he should be asked to help out with the leadout for Groenewegen who is going for the overall. All the team's focus should now be on DG, and he could well deliver. He is 4/1 with Paddy Power, but like I said last time, I'm not sure he's a locked in cert for a place yet for a 'bet to nothing'.. He did fail on stage 3 at similar odds. If you get 6/1 or bigger elsewhere he might be worth a shot. 

Mark Cavendish was leading the cheerleading today to get hthe stage cancelled, he didn't look like he fancied a day in the wind and a dash up the Dam, and I can't blame him. He just wants to move on to this final stage and try to put things right after three days of frustration and disappointment. He looked like he might well have the speed based on his 3rd place in stage 1 , despite a puncture, but then disappointed in 2 & 3. He seems to have let RJVR have a go at the sprint on stage 3 and he sat up with 100m to go, so maybe he wasn't bluffling beforehand when he said his form wasn't great. 

But you can never write Cav off - a wounded and annoyed Cav usually tends to come out swinging until he lands a win. He will be desperate to get something out of this race for DDD, and he should be up there fighting for a podium position I think. But no value at just 5/1 given all the doubts about him.  

John Degenkolb isn't completely out of it either, he can win this race if he wins and Kittel and Groenewegen get lost on the way and don't podium. So he has every incentive to go full gas to the line as it may be that those two fail to get a podium spot behind him. He had been close on the first two stages, but was super-powerful to come from a losing position to winning in the last 50m. He is coming more and more in to form and Koen de Kort is doing his thing for him down there, getting him in the right positions. He looks big to me to be fighting for a podium spot at 10/1, I think he has a lot more motivation than most and a lot of anger in him too maybe that the Hatta Dam stage was cancelled as it could have been his chance to win the race overall. 

Can Elia Viviani finally do something in this race? He has been completely anonymous this week and has not troubled the podium at all, but he surely has one good day in his legs on a course that suits him a lot better? Sky have done nothing in this race really, there has hardly been a mention of any of the team other than Viviani. He will like this twisty and turning finish, and if he can jump on the wheel of Kittel or Cav he might be up there. 

And then we have all the second tier sprinters - Jakub Mareczko, Jempy Drucker, Sacha Modolo, Roberto Minali, Sonny Colbrelli and Adam Blythe - it's a lottery trying to pick one of those who might go week on this stage. Adam Blythe has been very consistent with his top tens, he might like this circuit too, he looks huge at 250/1  for a guy who has been pretty close this week, anything can happen in a chaotic sprint like this and he might take advantage.. 

And that's about it, there's not a lot to get excited about and I don't want to give back too much of our profits as we should finish the week over 10pts up which is satisfactory.. Just one or two guys at big prices caught my eye, just in case it doesn't come down to a sprint, or if things get a bit crazy in the last few kilometres. Matteo Trentin might be given a bit of rope tomorrow, he could go on the attack or try a late charge off the front.. at 200/1 with Paddy Power he was worth a few quid.

Reinardt Janse Van Rensburg almost won on stage 3, he was 250/1 with Paddy Power when they opened today and that was massive seeing as how close he came in the last sprint.. If Cav isn't up for the sprint again tomorrow or if something goes wrong with him, RJVR might step up again. 

Kittel will probably win, but at the same time, I can't have any confidence in him at odds on. He has drifted from 8/13 to 5/6 though this evening, so it looks like he is friendless and all the others are being backed. Groenewegen at 11/2 with Bet365 looks like an ok e/w bet, but Degenkolb at 10/1 looked more interesting to me. He's 8/1 now though, but I think that's still worth a small bet. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on John Degenkolb at 8/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Adam Blythe at 250/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Matteo Trentin at 200/1 with Paddy Power

0.2pts each-way on Reinart Janse Van Rensburg at 250/1 with Paddy Power

 

Matchbets

Blythe to beat Von Hoff, Kittel to beat Groenewegen, Modolo to beat Colbrelli - 2pts on the treble at 13/8 with Bet365

Degenkolb to beat Cavendish - 2pts at 5/4 with 365

 

Route Map