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Published on Tuesday, 02 September 2014 19:56

Vuelta a España St. 11

Pamplona to Santuario de San Miguel de Aralar

Wednesday September 3rd, 153.4kms 

After a dramatic Time Trial on stage 10 which indeed saw a major re-shuffle of the GC we move on to a tricky little stage with a hard finish to the Santuario de San Miguel de Aralar. Nairo Quintana is going to be feeling sore, Froome is looking worse by the day and Contador is going to be cock-a-hoop after a strong TT when he wrestled the red jersey off Quintana. 

Today's TT was an excellent result for me, with almost a clean sweep, only Kelderman letting the side down and denying us the final 4.4/1 acca. All the other results came in and I am particularly proud of my shout on Froome, only wish I had laid more of him at 2/5 for the top 3! He clearly isn't fit and was struggling badly on a Cat 3 climb which was incredible to see. Martin was supreme as always, killing the downhill section with his 58-tooth chainring.. he stayed strong all the way to the line while all others started well and faded badly.

Cancellara and Uran did the business to land the top-3 bets to return a total profit of 13.26pts on the day. I also added a point on Martin at evens in-play which I tweeted at the time, so a nice 14.26pts profit today to make up for the crappy breakaway stages at the weekend. What an incredible crash by Quintana though, I was saying 'what are you doing, leave your shoe alone' as he came to that bend, they cut the footage and next minute he was on the ground.. amateur stuff out the wee man.

The end result of it all is Contador is now 8/13 to win and that looks a little short to me.. who's to say that leg injury doesn't start affecting him in the next two weeks at some point and he has a bad day? His lead is only 27" and there are six riders in total less than 2' behind him. A big ask to usurp him as he seems to be in great shape (and should go well tomorrow) but at that price it's worth a small lay of 3pts to lose 1.8pts.  

The Route

No bull jokes about Bertie's steaks please, but tomorrow's stage starts in Pamplona and heads south in to a head wind for the first 60kms until the hit the first intermediate sprint. Shortly after as they head north-west it turns in to a tail wind which will help the break of the day. At 96kms they take in the 2nd intermediate sprint of the day, and as it has been a relatively flat stage up until now I wouldn't be surprised to see the likes of Matthews or Degenkolb in the break of the day in order to try to snaffle up Green Jersey points and then drift back in to the peloton. 

The road starts to rise soon after with the first categorised climb of the day, the Cat 3 Puerto de Lizarraga which they start after 103kms and it goes on for a pretty long 18.3kms although it is not a very steep climb, only getting steep at the very top. After a quick descent and run along the valley for 20kms they start on the final climb of the day up to the Alto de San Miguel de Aralar. This is a proper brute of a climb right at the end of the day - 9.9kms at an average of 7.5%, hitting maximums of 14%. It's a pretty steady gradient all the way up with some small respite in parts which drop to 3%, but the hardest parts are in the last 3kms where a hairpin rises up at 14% and there are some sections at 8-10% before it eases slightly in the last 500m to 'just' 5%.

One thing to bear in mind about the climb is that the surface is appalling - there are huge cracks in the concrete surface, and it is so bad that motorised vehicles are restricted to speeds of just 20kmph when driving up it. If Contador was moaning about the road surface today, he is going to hate tomorrow! 

Contenders and Favourites

Of course, there are two main ways this stage could be won - either the break of the day makes it again or it doesn't and the GC guys battle it out for stage glory. I wasted a lot of time and effort (and money!) doing the preview for Sunday's stage only to see it completely worthless as 31 riders got away in the break of the day.. It could well be something similar tomorrow.. We could see a lot of competition for the break of the day and as a result the first hour or so of racing could be very fast indeed. 

It's needle in haystack time again in trying to find the breakaway guys and we can't back every guy who may be in the break, but a few who could well be involved are the likes of Jérome Coppel (rode a pretty good TT and was in the break on Sunday), Javier Moreno (the Movistar sacrificial lamb), Mikel Nieve (more on him below), José Serpa, Louis Meintjes, Arredondo, Sicard, Tschopp, Ellisonde and Van den Broeck. 

Mikel Nieve is an interesting one for this stage as it has been reported that he has been training quite a bit on this road in the past few months. The road has never been used for a pro race so no one will know the climb like Frosty will. Add in the fact that he is going really well at the moment and that he may be allowed go in pursuit of stage glory as Froome is clearly not 100% and he looks a tasty bet at 80/1. He could either get in the early break of the day or could be there at the finish with the GC guys and go on the attack as they watch Froome. 

As for the GC men, if the break is reeled in, there are more questions and doubts about a lot of them still.. Chris Froome will not be winning tomorrow except by some 'old style' miracle, he is not fit, he is lacking power and has been dealt a hammer confidence blow today I think. Nairo Quintana took a horrible fall today and although he seemed to finish well enough I think he will be feeling the effects of that tomorrow. If he is feeling ok though he will probably be sent on the attack on the final climb so Valverde can take it easy as others chase him down. I think though that he will wake up tomorrow stiff and sore and I can't see him in the first three. 

On the other hand though, Alberto Contador is flying at the moment and is getting better day by day. He was great on Sunday, lighting up the race and going on the attack only to fade a little and be reeled in by the three chasers who had to work really hard to only just catch him on the line. He did a great TT to finish 4th and this sort of finish is perfect for him. As that leg could well cause him problems yet in the race, or Froome could recover and finish strongly I think he has to take every opportunity, every bonus second and strike hard while he is going well and his opponents are weakened. He opened at 11/8 with Paddy Power and that didn't interest me, but Bet365 went 11/4 and that was far better! I had two points win on him at 11/4 as I think if the break is caught Contador has a great chance of winning the stage. 

Joaquim Rodriguez also looks to be getting stronger as the race goes on, riding well at the finish of stage 9 to chase down Contador and doing an excellent TT for him to finish in 17th place, just 1'10" behind Contador. He too will like this finish but it may be just a bit too fast for him if Bertie goes in the last 2kms. He will have Moreno probably to chase for him again though so he would be in with a good chance of a top 3 placing I think. 

Alejandro Valverde will be the interesting one to watch tomorrow - with Quintana now out of the picture you'd think, he is now the official team leader again. Even Quintana tweeted today that he will now be working for Alejandro.. Does he go on the offensive straight away and try to win the stage and the bonus seconds? He's only 18" and a clean win bonus away from taking the jersey back off of Contador! Tinkoff-Saxo look to have a weak team here so it doesn't look like they will be able to ride him off their wheels, it might be up to Katusha and Garmin-Sharp to try to do that. I think though he might struggle to go with Bertie when the attack comes like on La Zubia, but if he gets to the finish in a small group he probably would win the sprint. 

Fabio Aru doesn't seem to be at his Giro level and I think 5th to 10th for him tomorrow.. Dan Martin has been disappointing in terms of his efforts on the climbs, but he is still moving up slowly, now up to 13th place. If he wants a top 10 placing here he will need to go on the attack again but it doesn't look he is capable of gapping these guys right now. We'll see tomorrow again what his shape is like but I am not backing him after getting burnt a few times now. 

Esteban Chaves has also been very disappointing, cracking 3kms from the finish on Sunday and crawling home nearly 6' down today in 156th place. Can't see him featuring tomorrow again. Adam Yates has been invisible, hasn't been involved in any of the final scraps, so again with him I am staying away until I see some glimpses of form. 

I could go on - there are others riding well but not quite good enough I think - Anacona, Evans (great TT today), Samu Sanchez, Mas Bonet etc and others who are really yet to show their hand - Barguil, Kelderman, Pinot, Van den Broeck (good TT today too), Landa, Ellissonde, Niemiec (did an ok TT today, finished 2nd on a similar stage in the Giro del Trentino with a final climb of 15kms at a 6.9% average) etc. But I think Contador will take all the beating tomorrow with a shot at some big priced outsiders for break possibles. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Alberto Contador at 11/4 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Mikel Nieve at 80/1 with Bet365 (also took 1.25pts each-way with Boyles at 100/1)

0.2pts win on Jurgen Van den Broeck at 100/1 with Boyles

0.2pts win on Luis Mas Bonet at 300/1 with PP

0.2pts win on Louis Meintjes at 150/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Niemiec at 100/1 with Ladbrokes 

Match Bets 

Nieve to beat Gesink - 1.5pts at Evens

Niemiec to beat Arroyo - 1pt at 8/11

Contador to beat Rodriguez, Nieve to beat Gesink and Valverde to beat Aru - 1pt on the treble pays 3.39/1, all with 365 

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