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Published on Monday, 01 September 2014 00:16

Vuelta a España St. 10

Real Monasterio De Santa María De Veruela to Borja

Tuesday August 2nd, 36.7kms 

Stage 10 comes after the first rest day of the Vuelta, which followed the most significant stage so far in terms of the GC. The pre-race predictions were that Froome would blow away all his GC rivals in this TT, but after his performance on Sunday when he was dropped by Contador and Quintana, what can we expect? 

Sunday's stage to Valdelinares was a great stage to watch, but a nightmare for the blog. 31 riders breaking away and gaining over 6 minutes - a break which contained good climbers like Winner Anacona, Hesjedal, Coppell, Javi Moreno and Arredondo. A break which contained a Movistar, Garmin-Sharp, Sky and Katusha rider, lessening their need to chase and pull them back. So the stronger men rose to the top on the last climb and Anacona was a deserved winner after looking the strongest from a long way out and my shouts never got a look in. 

Behind things were heating up - Sky drilled it for several kilometres with Cataldo dropping back to help Deignan and Kennaugh string things out until there were only about 15 riders left. Dan Martin tried an attack, it only served to kick things off as Rodriguez went after him. Then Contador exploded things, launching a blistering attack, with Quintana, Rodriguez and Vorganov going in hot pursuit, only just making the junction on the line to cut his advantage to 0". Significantly for the GC though Quintana gained enough time to take the red jersey and Froome struggled to go with them - he came home 23" behind with Martin, Uran and Valverde. Of course, just to make it a total whitewash on the day Martin rolled in half a bike length behind Uran to smash the match bet. Incredibly, 'Mr. Constant Top 10' Zubeldia had a disaster, blowing that match bet too. A jour sans for me, a day to forget and recover from on the rest day.. 

So where does that leave us with regards the rest of the race and the GC battle now? Well, the TT will be of huge significance now as Froome has lost time, but more importantly, despite all the Sky bravado just before, he was found wanting when push came to shove. 23" may not be a lot if he takes a minute out of Quintana in the TT, but Contador may not lose a minute to him and is clearly now a big danger. But what if Froome just doesn't have the legs and struggles in the TT? Then it looks like a shootout between Contador and Quintana in the mountains next week.. Froome is 2nd favourite for the TT and 3rd favourite for the GC so there is still plenty of confidence in him.

Quintana has started to kick in to life. Although he left it for quite a long time, he had the power to go after Contador, but not quite the kick to go again and bridge after Katusha had done most of the pulling. That kick will come though and when it does he could leave them all for dead on the big mountains to come. Uran, Aru, Valverde, Martin, they all looked lacking yesterday when Bertie and Quintana flew off the front. Anacona is sitting in 4th place now, just 9" back, but I don't think he is realistically a top 3 contender. He will lose plenty of time in the TTs and may struggle when he doesn't have a 5 minute head-start next week in the big mountains.

There is still only less than two minutes separating the top 16 though so it is still wide open on the face of it. Realistically there are probably only 4 or 5 who can win it though at most, and for some of those it will require a monumental effort to make up enough time to first make a break to take the jersey and then to hold it all the way. But as we saw in the Dauphiné (and you could say in the TDF too) anything can happen and no lead is a safe lead with the likes of Martin, Kelderman, Gesink, Aru, Barguil and Chaves all within touching distance of a top 3 who still aren't in top gear.

The Route

It's a pretty straightforward route with the first 11kms climbing and the last 25kms descending. Although they are climbing from the start, the categorised climb only covers 2.2kms of the hill. The total climb from the start ramp climbs 355m to average 3.1%. There are some downhill sections and some flat bits on the way up so the average of the climbing parts is closer to 4%. From the top of the climb though it's all downhill. It will be important to not go too hard on the uphill section as they will need to retain a lot of power for the homeward stretch.

The strong climbers will have a small advantage on the way up but the strong rouleurs will be able to really power down the hill for the last 25kms. It looks a course tailor-made for Tony Martin with his good climbing abilities on an easy climb like this and his immense power for on the way down. On a good day though it will also suit Froome who should go up the hill quicker than Martin, just depends how much he loses on the way down.   

They will have a head wind on the way up the climb as there will be a 10kmph south-easterly wind blowing in the afternoon, which will turn in to a side cross-wind on the descent coming from their right hand side, which will be a tail-wind for part of it in the way down the other side. 

Contenders and Favourites

The early prices for the TT were a bit split with regards Tony Martin's chances, with him being as short as 1/2 and as big as 4/5 to win the stage. If you could call 4/5 big! Well for Tony Martin it is big as he is often prices like 2/5 or 1/2 to win time trials. That didn't last long though and now 8/11 is the best price on Betfair, 4/6 with Bet365.

The main reason he is not shorter is the presence of Chris Froome sitting at 5/2 in the betting behind him. In their only head-to-head this year, in the Tour de Romandie, Froome managed to beat Martin by just one second to win the TT over 18.5kms. In the Pays Vasco, Martin beat Contador by just 7" over a lumpy course of 25.9kms, not far off the type of course they have here. In the Dauphiné Froome beat Contador by just 8", with Jungels just 1" further back in 3rd. So it's all pretty tight form-wise from earlier in the season, add in the fact that Froome struggled yesterday and that Contador may find a solo intense effort like this hard going and it probably points to a win for Tony Martin. It's Froome's form is the big mystery though, if he really is not 100% here then Martin's price will have looked like a gift.. there aren't many others who will beat him.

There are a number of good TT'ers just below the top level though, with the likes of Vandewalle, Dennis, Cancellara, Malori, Kelderman and Kiryienka who could all do good time trials. We should see another big shake-up in the GC and some will move in to contention for a top 6 and some will slide further away.

Fabian Cancellara is an interesting one in that he has barely been visible for the whole of the race so far and sits in 122nd place, over an hour down. He is preparing for the World's while here, but if he fancies a shot at the TT title then he will need to be going full gas on this TT to really test himself and to see how the legs are. It's the kind of course that suits him too with a power climb in the first 11kms and then a downhill run for the next 25kms or so. It's not often you see Fabian available at a price like 12/1.

Rohan Dennis - Mr. 2nd place.. He has finished 2nd so many times in TTs, a lot of those behind Tony Martin! Now riding for BMC after his mid-season split, he was fancied by some at huge prices before the race started to perform well. But boy that was confidence mis-placed.. He sits in 109th place, some 55 minutes behind Quintana. He should go well on this course though and a top 10, possibly top 6 is achievable for him.

Vasil Kiryienka is a diesel engine who will power up that hill to start with and drive down the other side pretty fast. The question is though will he be asked to conserve his energy for his job of looking after Froome in the days to come, especially if Froome is not 100%? If so then he will not be challenging for a top 3, possibly 10th-15th for him.

Kenny Vandewalle is a rising star of time trialling and one that has recently won when I recommended him for the TT at the Tour of Poland. The Belgian national TT champion looks very big at 100/1 with Bet365, although that TT in Poland was dead flat compared to this hilly one. Rigo Uran surprised with a brilliant TT win at the Giro in Barolo, that was over a similar course with a climb for the first 12kms and then a descent for 20kms or so, but that kicked up again at the end with two little hills. He is obviously going ok as he has been finishing near the front on the mountain stages and we could see him put in a big show here tomorrow too. 

Jesse Sergent has been riding well this year too but I think this might be a bit too hard for him with the drag up for the first 10kms. One that might put in a big ride also could be Wilco Kelderman - he was 7th in that TT in the Giro and in the Dauphiné TT he was only 11" behind Froome and just 3" behind Contador. He has ambitions of a top 10 finish but after dropping 6 places after Sunday's stage to 16th place he will need to put in a big ride to put himself back in the top 10. He is a massive 300/1 to win but that is probably about right, I think 5th to 10th is probably where he is going to be again.

Overall though, it's hard to weight it up accurately when we don't know for certain what shape Froome is in. A solo ride here over 36kms will be hard on him if he is not 100% and you have to assume he isn't given he was in trouble a long way down the climb on Sunday and was unable to match the big moves when they came. 8/11 is tight on Martin you'd think but I actually think that is a great price as he should comfortably take this. Who will come behind him in the top 3 is a tough one to call but if I had to plump for the other 2 podium places, Cancellara at 5/6 to come in the top 3 with Bet365 and Rigoberto Uran at 4/1 with 888Sport for the top 3 (or 35/1 with 888 to win if you're feeling extra brave!) 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Tony Martin at 8/11 on Betfair

1pt on Cancellara to finish in the top 3 at 5/6 with Bet365

1pt on Uran to finish in the top 3 at 4/1 with 888Sport or Bet365

Lay Froome to finish in the top 3 at 2/5 on Betfair, risking 1pt to win 2.5pts

Match Bets 

Tony Martin to beat Froome, Contador to beat Quintana and Uran to beat Valverde - Match Bet Acca pays 7/4 with Bet365

Add in Cancellara to beat Dennis, it pays 3/1

Add in Kelderman to beat Kangert it pays 4.4/1 

all 1pt with Bet365

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