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Published on Saturday, 27 September 2014 01:46

World Road Race Championships

Ponferrada, Spain.

Sunday 28th September, 254.8kms

This has been one of my favourite races for years now and I have had three very profitable years in a row betting on it. Starting with a big bet on Cavendish at 6/1 in 2011, followed by the 1-2-3 with Gilbert, Boassen-Hagen and Valverde in 2012 and a massive 50/1 winner in Rui Costa last year. The pressure is on then in what is a ridiculously open race!  

Bradley Wiggins was the star of the TT, not only winning the Gold medal, but handing the triple world time trial champion Tony Martin an absolute hammering. It was only close for about the first 10kms and Wiggo just pulled further and further away. Martin seemed tired and lacking in power, the warning signs of the poor TTT turned in to big alarm bells as he struggled to match the man he beat by 46" last year. 

So on to the road race then and one of the most eagerly anticipated races of the year. Last year's race turned in to a farce for the Spanish who looked like they had it in the bag with only a few kilometres to go with both Valverde and Purito Rodriguez in the final selection. It made for a wildly exciting last 2kms for me as Rui chased after Rodriguez and seemed to be slowly gaining on him all the way to the catch in the final 500m. I loved the way he gave the old 'I've nothing left pal, off you go' to Rodriguez when he came up alongside and then outsprinted him at the end. 

This was just one of my bets on Betfair below, I was also on him at 50/1 with a bookmaker, I think it was Ladbrokes, but can't remember. The preview can be read here 

There are four former World Champions lining up this year - Costa, Gilbert, Boonen and Evans and you couldn't rule any of them out really from winning it again. Valverde has been 2nd twice, as has Alexander Kolobnev surprisingly, and Boassen-Hagen, Rodriguez and Breschel have also finished 2nd and the two Spaniards are possible podium candidates again but I can't see the others featuring.  

So who's going to be the big priced winner this year that we can get stuck in to? We'll come to that but first, let's look at the route that lies ahead of them. 

The Route

The course is 14 laps of an 18.2km circuit, heading out on a loop to the north-east of the city of Ponferrada. The total distance of 254.8kms is the shortest distance for a World's since 2001 in Lissabon. The course is a lumpy one though and will be a battle of attrition over 18 laps. The first 4kms are flat, but they hit the first climb almost straight away. This will no doubt see some furious action the first time up as the break of the day tries to establish itself. 

There are mixed opinions about how hard the course really is - some are saying that the longer climb isn't steep enough and the steeper climb isn't long enough! The two climbs in question are known as Confederación and Mirador.

Confederación is 5.2kms long, and the average incline is given as being just 3.3%, but that is very misleading as in fact the first 3kms average around 8% but the next kilometre averages less than 2% and the final kilometre is almost as much downhill as uphill. It should be manageable by most of the peloton for most of the race, but once they get over the 200km mark, the last three times up it should start to hurt. They are sure to be flying up it on the last lap, with the likes of the Spanish team, Australia, Belgium and France all looking to thin out the peloton ahead of the final ascent of the Mirador.

The Mirador comes with 7kms to go to the finish and the descent off the Confederación is sure to be fast and furious as they all look to be at the front hitting the final climb. The reason being that it is only 1.1kms long, so those intent on trying to get away on the steeper parts will need to be in the first 20 or they can forget it. It averages 5.7%, which still isn't very steep, but has parts inside the first 100m and last 300m that hit 10%, with a max of 10.7%. So not exactly small ring territory really, in fact, when the Italians tested the circuit back in April, Pippo Pozzato rode it at race speed and did the whole circuit in the big ring. 

The Italian coach, Davide Cassani took Oscar Gatto, Luca Paolini and Pozzato for the recce, riding three laps of the course. He said after  “In theory, 30 riders could finish in the first group, but that’s only on paper. The last lap, after 3,900 meters of climbing, anything could happen,” Cassani said. “You could see riders like Sagan, Gilbert, Valverde winning here. It’s also good for Degenkolb or Gerrans.”

So that's the question - is it hard then and a course for the climbers, or is it not and will we see a select group of the strongest climbers, puncheurs and strong-man sprinters coming to the finish together, or at least to the final climb together? Looking at the U23 races today and from what I am reading a lot of the managers and riders are saying I personally think it will not be as hard as some think and it will all come down to how it is raced. The race will be a big tactical affair with the big countries like GB and Australia looking to control things and the smaller country guys like Sagan looking to piggy back them and fight for the right wheels and moves. 

The conditions could also play a part like last year in Italy when the rain decimated the field early on with lots of crashes, one which took Nibali down, who then rode brilliantly to make it to the final selection. Rain showers are forecast for the afternoon, getting heavier as the day goes on, but hopefully the worst will come after they have finished. Those descents off the two climbs are very fast and quite tricky, and they could become treacherous in the wet if the showers do come.  

Contenders and Favourites

Where do you start here?! It is ridiculously competitive and it's hard to know how the race is ultimately going to be decided. Will we see a long distance solo ride? Not likely. Will we see a late solo attack over the last climb take it? Possibly. Could it be a small elite group of opportunists who spring away on the final climb and hold off the chasers? Possibly. Could it come down to a reduced bunch sprint? Also possible.

Let's start by price order then going through the favourites from the top down. From the moment Paddy Power opened first with their prices a few weeks back they had Simon Gerrans at the top of their market at just 3/1 and although he had come off two fantastic, dominant wins in Canada that price was far too short for me. He is a little bit more appealing now though at 6/1 on Betfair.

Gerrans has a superb chance though for sure - the course suits him perfectly - the climbs are not too steep and if it comes down to a reduced group heading to the last climb he has the ability to jump away with a few late attackers and outsprint them at the line, or indeed even win from a 'group' sprint from the remainders of the peloton. I'm a big Gerro fan after he landed me a very big win in Liege-Bastogne-Liege at 25/1 earlier this year and I am tempted to have something on him just in case he does it again!

Australia have an amazingly strong team here too - a whole bunch of top class riders who come here with one goal - to take home the rainbow stripes. Cadel Evans, Rory Sutherland, Adam Hansen and Simon Clarke bring the calm, experienced heads. Rohan Dennis, Henirich Haussler, Matthew Hayman and Michael Matthews bring the youth and the power. In fact, if Gerrans isn't on his game on Sunday or a misfortune befalls him, they have the perfect back-up plan with Michael Matthews. Bling announced this week after a recce on the course "I like this course, and I think it really suits me"! If it did come down to a bunch sprint with some good sprinters still in there they might change tactics and lead out Matthews who has a better sprint than Gerro, but not by much! 

Next in the betting, and a rider which has been backed a bit since the market opened is Fabian Cancellara. Cancellara avoided the TT this year in order to focus on this race, and in fact it looks like he has focused most of the latter part of the year on it as he seemed to be only at the Vuelta for a training spin, even pulling out before stage 18. 

Cancellara had a good classics campaign again, taking 3rd in Paris-Roubaix, 2nd in Milan San Remo and winning the Tour of Flanders. This is his big goal of the year though and could be one of his last shots at winning the world champions stripes as he may not get another course as suitable to his characteristics and style. On paper, he should be perfectly suited by the closing kilometres for a late attack - jump off the front near the top of the Mirador and rocket down the descent in time trial mode to victory. It certainly is in his capabilities, as is going with a small group and outsprinting them like he did to most of the sprinters in MSR and he did to the small group in Flanders..

He could well be up there in this at the finish, but I have my doubts he will make it to the decisive parts, I fear he could be caught out on the hills as they head towards the closing stages. As short as 6/1, even the 9/1 doesn't really get me excited. Instead though, I like the look of his team-mate at a far bigger price. Michael Albasini was on fire over lumpy terrain in the Tour de Romandie earlier this year, taking three stage wins. Just last week he won the Tre Vale Varesine in Italy, over a course with a finish not too dissimilar to this one - a circuit of around 14kms they went around 10 times at the end of the race, covering 200kms in total, with a 5% climb for 2kms to the 1km to go mark.

He was quoted as saying this week after a ride around the course "on the first lap, I thought this course is hard.. but on the third lap, I thought, this will come down to a sprint" - whichever way it turns out, he has the necessary tools to go well here - he can climb well, isn't afraid to attack from a few kms out and has a pretty good finishing kick also. He may well be given more rope than Cancellara and may be left slip the net as they watch Spartacus, expecting the 1-2 from them. At 150/1 with Coral, who are paying 4 places he is a big price for a small investment, but also if you want the extra safety of the 6 places Boyles are paying, he is 100/1 there. 

The Spanish, and in particular Valverde and Purito managed to blow it last year when they had the numerical superiority coming in to the decisive part of the race. There is huge pressure on Valverde this year from all angles. From the expectant home fans. From the Spanish team who are determined not to screw a good opportunity up on home soil. And from within Valverde himself - he blew it last year, and he probably knows this is his last chance to win a World's.

He had some mixed performances in the Vuelta, but on the whole he has been riding really well, taking that incredible stage win on La Zubia and winning the Clasica San Sebastian just recently too. He is backed up by a pretty decent Spanish team, but one that seems to think that the course is harder than it now appears to be as they have lots of climbing talent on the team, but only Valverde really for a punchy, sprinting finish. He of course has the added advantage of having raced here earlier in the summer when the Spanish national championships was held here.. On that day he was very strong, bridging across on his own to Izagirre who was off the front on his own. He worked with him but handed the victory to his mate, no doubt expecting lots of favours in return, possibly during the Vuelta, and mabe even for Sunday.

So it looks like the whole team will be riding for him and it may just get a bit all too much for them.. they will feel great pressure to be seen to be controlling the race and they may just crumble when things kick off near the end. I'm reluctant to rule him out, as he has made me look a fool before when doing that, but I definitely won't be backing him at 9/1. The Spanish team includes Purito of course who could also go well, depending on what team orders will be, but if he finds himself cast in to the position of team leader for any reason, he is sure to take a flyer last time up the Mirador. They also have Luis Leon Sanchez, who they might send off up the road in the early break to try to relieve them of some of the chasing duties, Samu Sanchez, Dani Navarro, Dani Moreno, Jesus Herrada etc who are all excellent riders but all individual, ambitious type riders so it will be hard to control that squad I think!

Peter Sagan has one of the smallest squads here for a favourite, with just Martin and Peter Velits with him from Slovakia. Sagan is a really hard one to figure out - he has looked like a man that couldn't care less since his switch to Tinkoff-Saxo was signed, riding an anonymous Vuelta before abandoning early. He has made this World's his big target though and has been training with just this in mind for months. As I speculated when advising to steer clear of him for every stage he was fancied for in the Vuelta, there may well be a nice big bonus clause in his contract with Oleg should he bring rainbow stripes with him for next season.. so that's his motivation sorted then!

I spoke with Sam Bennett at the Tour of Britain and when I asked him who he thinks will win the world's he said "It looks perfect for Sagan doesn't it? He's been keeping a really low profile, but if he is near his best he has a great chance". The course is absolutely perfect for him you'd think too, normally he should be able to cope with the climbing and would be very dangerous in the last 5kms, either attacking at the top of the hill or outsprinting most in the reduced bunch sprint. He is an expert at wheel surfing and hiding away, so the small team isn't such a big deal, but I'm a little bit worried the 4300m of climbing might just stunt his chances.

The Belgians come here with a tremendous squad that includes two former winners in Tom Boonen and Phil Gilbert. Both of them might find it hard going tomorrow, but Gilbert could have a chance depending on whether there are some late attacks going over the top for the last time - he could well join a race-winning move and could sprint to victory. The Belgians have quite a few cards up their sleeves though - Greg Van Avermaet is in superb form at the moment, two top 7 placing in Canada were followed by two wins in 3 days at the GP Wallonie and the Primus Classic Impanis. 

GVA had a good Classics campaign but was the nearly man too often (denied me a 16/1 winner of the Omloop when outsprinted by Stannard. He seems to have turned a corner with killing off races and his attack at the finish at Wallonie just last week was very impressive indeed. He will like this course and we could well see him on the attack inside the last 7kms or so.

He will need to go solo though or be lucky with who comes with him as otherwise he may lose out to a better sprinter, but overall I think he has a solid chance of a big performance. He has a great team with him, with the likes of Jan Bakelants, Sep Vanmarcke, Johan Vansummeren, Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens, who are all capable of pulling something off, but you'd think the plan will be to work for the man in form, GVA. He is best price 16/1 with Boyles who are paying 6 places and I had to have some of that. 

Alexander Kristoff leads the Norwegian team, with Lars Petter Nordhaug and EBH in support. Kristoff showed in Milan San Remo he can handle long, hard days in the saddle with a superb win. Since then he has won lots of races, including stages in the Tour de France, the Tour of Norway and also took the Vattenfall Cyclassics. He didn't look in great form in Quebec and Montreal though a few weeks back and I wonder how he'll fare with so much climbing to do tomorrow. If he is there at the finish he is definitely capable of a top 6 finish in the sprint you'd think, so if you fancy him, take the best price out there of 20/1 with Boyles, who are paying out on the first six home. If you don't have an account yet with them, use this link to sign up and get €50 in free bets.

The German squad looked like they had a big chance here with the powerhouse that is John Degenkolb, who should have been able to get to the finish possibly for the bunch sprint. That plan was disrupted though by Deggers spending a few days in hospital after developing an infection following his crash in the Vuelta. He was put on anti-biotics and I can't see him featuring given the lack of training and the effect being on anti-biotics will have. They have André Greipel and Paul Martens, but I can't see them getting to the finish. Tony Martin may well be there near the finish but he has seemed a little off-form lately, culminating in his hammering by Wiggo on Wednesday. Simon Geschke might be the man for the plan given his ability to climb and sprint from a reduced group - he is 250/1 with the bookies and 320 on Betfair. 

Great Britain are on a high after Wiggo's heroics on Wednesday and are here for one man for the road race it seems - Ben Swift. The plan, as explained by Geraint Thomas is that G and the likes of Luke Rowe and Cummings look after Swifty early on, (Thomas doesn't even expect to finish) and as it gets towards the business end Chris Froome, Peter Kennaugh and the Yates brothers will try to look after him on the climbs and get him to the finish. Sure, if he gets there he will have a big chance, but as I said in the Tour of Britain, he's not a great finisher - he lets the side down sometimes.

Also, it may well be that if the race is fast and furious and he needs his climbers to drag him over the final climbs, they may well have nothing left to lead him out at the finish, they're not exactly a leadout train are they. They should do better than last year when not one rider finished, but as tempting as the 50/1 is (and I saw Dan Lloyd, who is a pretty good judge recommend backing him at that price), I think I'm going to leave it. I don't think he'll be involved at the finish. 

Poland come here with a bigger squad than they normally have and their leader Michal Kwiatkowski comes with a solid chance of winning this. Although they have 9 riders here though, I can't see many of them being there near the finish, so Kwiatkowski might find himself on his own. If he is to win it I think he will have to attack solo or with 3 or 4 others on the final lap, maybe even on the penultimate climb, rather than the last. He has been going really well lately, scoring some great wins in the TOB but I cannot bring myself to back him here, I can't see him winning it and 20/1 is not attractive enough for a go.. if he was 40/1, maybe. 

The reigning world champion Rui Costa has 5 team-mates with him, but let's face it, he'll probably find himself on his own with a lap or two to go. That didn't stop him from riding brilliantly last year to outfox Valverde and Nibali and reel in Purito to take the win. He hasn't had a great year in the stripes, but he does seem to be coming in to form at just the right time with a good 2nd place at the GP de Montreal behind Gerrans.

This course may not have the steep or long climbs that might give him more of an advantage but he is a very canny rider and knows which moves to go with and when to attack. After landing some big bets on him last year I couldn't leace him unbacked this year to pull off a repeat so when he opened at 33/1 with Paddy Power I had some of that, they promptly cut him to 22/1 but I see he is available at 33/1 still with Ladbrokes or 28/1 with Boyles for the 6 places. I think he could well be one of those late attackers that could get away in a small group and if so has a good chance of a high placing. 

The Italians have come here with a team packed with climbers, they seem to have over-estimated the climbs on the course. They have quality throughout the squad though, led by TDF Champ Vincenzo Nibali. The course isn't hard enough for Fabio Aru, but they also have the two Carusos, Visconti, De Marchi and Colbrelli. I think they should have a few riders still there heading in to the final two climbs but it may be that we have lost their sprint hope by then, Colbrelli and the others aren't suited to the finish I think. I can't see Italy on the podium. 

Ireland have a quality trio in Dan Martin, Nicholas Roche and Philip Deignan at this year's World's. A lot of people are tipping up Dan Martin, and as much as I'd love to see him take it considering the amount of bad fortune he has had this year, I really can't see it happening. We saw in the Vuelta that he just doesn't have the kick this year to drop anyone. He should be well able to hang in to the last lap, but then what? He won't get away on his own, he might jump with the likes of Gerrans or Costa, but they would outsprint him, I just can't see a scenario where he can win it. 

Nicholas Roche on the other hand might well be able to slip away with the right break near the finish - we saw in the TOB how aggressive he was and he looked very strong at times. He was working very hard that week to reduce his weight and get fit for the world's, Sam Bennett told me he asked him had he lost weight during the week as he physically looked thinner on Sunday than he did at the start of the week. He had in fact lost between 1-2kgs by reducing what he ate that week and obviously attacking hard too!

I had a fascinating chat with him about the antics of OPQS that week and how they refused to let Boaro go in the break on the stage to Brighton, and as a result T-S refused to help in the chase when they were trying to pull back Van Barle's group. They only put two men on the front to chase, and as Roche said, two men against 5 strong men in the break, they were never going to catch them. He was perplexed with their tactics and even asked Kwiatkowski not to sprint against him for bonus seconds as he would beat him in the TT, Kwiatkowski ignored him and took the sprint, so that gave Roche even more reason not to help and they ultimately lost out. He said he went full gas on the Tumble as he didn't want Wiggo or Kwiat to come with him, if he was winning this, he was winning alone.. so he was on the limit with Zardini came across and he said he couldn't believe it when he rode away from him again, he had nothing left. 

Roche is reportedly on the verge of signing for Sky and it will be interesting to see how he goes Sunday beside his possible future team-mate Deignan.. I think he is well capable of being in the front group hitting the last few climbs, and if he has sat in and sheltered all day he may well be able to spring a surprise attack, or go with the decisive move. It's a long shot, but he could well surprise a few, I really hope he does - at 200/1 I'd rather be on him than Martin at 40/1.

The French took a punt on bringing Nacer Bouhanni and I think they did the right thing. As we saw in the Vuelta, he is capable of getting over some pretty lumpy terrain when he wants to and is a real street fighter as we will no doubt hear over and over again on Sunday. If he can hang in there, and they can look after him throughout the day, he has to be one of the strong favourites to take that sprint - 600m of dead straight, wide roads, it's perfect for him. 

It's a good French squad this year too, with several other potential winners on the day, so they will have to balance carefully looking after Bouhanni, as he may not make it, and preserving their other weapons such as Chavanel, Gallopin, Bardet and Barguil. I think the course is not hard enough for Bardet and Barguil but that probably won't stop Barguil from attacking! Chavanel has been going ok lately, but I wasn't that impressed with him at the TOB, but then again it did look like a training spin for him ahead of the World's. As soon as the prices opened apparently Bouhanni was 100/1.. I missed that but got the next best price I think at 66/1, he now ranges between 22/1 and 50/1 with an average around 33/1 so make sure you shop around, but I think he is definitely one to keep onside.. 

There are loads of others of course who could feature - I haven't even mentioned the Dutch squad, of which I think Tom Dumoulin, Bauke Mollema and TJ Slagter are all capable of big rides but I don't think they will podium. Of all the remaining riders to pick from, two more I like at big prices are Ramunas Navardauskas of Lithuania and Daryl Impey of South Africa. 

Nava is a real dark horse as far as I'm concerned and as soon as PP opened with their prices I snapped up the 50/1 that was available. I'm glad I did now as he is generally 33/1.. Also, I have heard that a number of pros really fancy him, and some shrewd names in the media are also backing him. He was superb in Canada, finishing 2nd, 6th, 2nd, 6th and 3rd in the five stages of the Tour of Alberta, taking 4th in the GC and the Points Jersey. He followed that up two weeks ago with 3rd place in Quebec and 4th place in Montreal so basically, in the last seven road races he has started, he has not finished worse than 6th place. He should have no problem with these sorts of climbs, he can attack late solo or with a small break and he has a good finishing kick too with could well get him on the podium. 33/1 with Boyles paying 6 places looks the place to go. 

Finally, Daryl Impey has come back from his drug ban hiatus in scintillating form, looks like he is riding full of pent up anger and emotion having missed out on much of the season. He came back in the Tour of Alberta and only went and won a stage, took 2nd on another and the overall GC win too. He followed that with a 4th in Quebec, but was working for his team leader Gerrans (who won) and again in Montreal. He looked very strong in both those races which were over very lumpy territory. He is free to ride his own race tomorrow and I think he could be a dark horse also, one that will not be watched too closely either. I got him at 100/1 with Bet365 just over a week ago but he is still available at 100/1 with Corals who are paying 4 places. 

I haven't even mentioned Van Garderen, Talansky, Uran, Kolobnev, Mezgec, Morkov, Stybar, Hutarovich, Richeze, Bauer or Quinziato. It just goes to show how devilishly difficult it is to call this race this year. It could be chaos on Sunday, there could be splits all over the place and there will be a lot of luck involved in getting to the finish. Let's hope we get lucky with these selections below! I'll also be live tweeting during the race so if I see some opportunities in play I'll post them up. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each way on Greg Van Avermaet at 16/1 with Boyles (6 places)

0.5pts each way on Ramunas Navardauskas at 50/1 with Paddy Power (take 33/1 with Boyles)

0.3pts each way on Michael Albasini at 150/1 with Corals (paying 4) or take 100/1 with Boyles if you want the 6 places.

0.3pts each-way on Daryl Impey at 100/1 with Corals (4 places)

0.25pts each-way on Nicholas Roche at 200/1 with PP (paying 5 places)

0.5pts each way on Peter Sagan at 14/1 with PP (5 places) 

0.5pts each way on Nacer Bouhanni at 66/1 with Bet365 (take 50/1 with PP)

Match Bets

Peter Sagan to beat John Degenkolb - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Kolobnev to beat Grivko - 1.2pts at 4/6

Mollema to beat Dan Martin - 1.5pts at evens

Gerrans to beat Gilbert, Impey to beat Bole, Navardauskas to beat Breschel, Sagan to beat Degenkolb - the 4-fold pays 4.64/1 with 365

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