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Published on Friday, 24 April 2015 23:03

Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2015

Liège to Ans

Sunday 27th April, 253kms

The 100th edition of Liège-Bastogne-Liège last year is one that I'll not forget for a while after landing one of by biggest results of the year on Simon Gerrans. Some said he couldn't possibly win, too much climbing in it.. My information said otherwise and we landed a right touch at 25/1. Not only that, but I had Dan Martin at 50/1 each-way, so as he headed to the final bend in pursuit of Moreno, with Gerrans not far behind I was just a little excited you could say.

It was around a 50pt winning day for the blog and even more so for me personally as I had forgotten I had placed a £15 e/w bet at 25/1 with Ladbrokes, it was a very nice surprise to find almost £500 extra in my account! It's amazing how motivated a rider becomes when in the middle of contract negotiations!

At 253kms long, 'La Doyenne' is 10kms shorter than last year but is still the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. The finish is of course a very tough hill, but not exactly from the same mould as the Cauberg or the Mur de Huy, but it's preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way, most notably the Côte de  la Redoute and the Côte de Saint Nicholas. This comes with just 5km to go and often sees a final selection before the last climb up to the finish in Ans. 

Who can forget 2014's race also when Daniel Martin rode away from Joaquin Rodriguez in one of the most exciting finishes of the year to take a sensational victory. It was a brilliant victory and one of my best results that year too as I had tipped him up at 22/1 (and just over 7/1 to place). 

The previous year's edition saw a valiant effort from Vincenzo Nibali fail with just over 1km to go, when Maxime Iglinskiy caught and passed him and rode away to a surprise victory. 2012 was another great race, one where the Schleck brothers came to the finish with Gilbert and still managed to lose out to him in the sprint. 2011 was a dopers podium with Vinokourov, Kolobnev and Valverde followed by Gilbert and Evans. 2009 saw probably Andy Schlecks finest hour as he rode away from them all to take a sensational win by 1'17" from Rodriguez.

This is one of the great races - one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly 2 times. Can Dan Martin emulate his compatriot and land his second win in La Doyenne? Can Valverde make it three wins? Can Rodriguez finally move off the second step of the podium? So many possibilities it's making my head spin thinking about trying to pick the winner!

The Route

The race may be called Liège-Bastogne-Liège, but in fact they finish in the town of Ans to the north west of Liège. The route follows a broadly familiar route, but this year sees a little change in the sector of climbs between the 200km and 230km or so mark.  

As they head south out of Liège there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for over 260kms with a relentless course of hills ahead of them. Although they will have crested several unclassified climbs along the way, the first classified climb comes after 79kms with the Côte de la Roche-en-Ardennes. As is traditional now though, the real action starts after 167kms on the way back to Liège, with the trilogy of quick climbs of the Côte de Wanne, Stockeu and Haute-Levée which come between the 161 and 182km point. Of the three of them, the Stockeu is the toughest - a nasty 12.4% for 1km with parts up to 15% and it is ridiculously narrow - barely the width of a car. Right at the bottom they hit a 90 degree turn on to the climb and it can be carnage as they all try to charge in to it together.

After that comes a change to the route from last year with the introduction of the Col du Rosier after 194kms which is 4.4kms at 5.9%, followed by another change to the route with the Col du Maquisard after 207kms, which is 2.5kms at 5% average. 

It's back on to the familiar run in though from there with the Côte de la Redoute next up after 218.5kms - another ridiculously narrow road that is barely wide enough for 4 or 5 riders to ride side by side. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills. 

Last year with 31kms left they hit the Côte des Forges but this year they go straight on to the Côte de la Roche aux Facons, another horrible climb considering they will have 234kms in the legs. It's 9.3% average for 1.5kms so it's really going to hurt and should reduce numbers even further, especially as the last 500m average nearly 11%. 

Then the penultimate test of the Côte de Saint Nicolas which was where Pozzovivo and Caruso attacked last year and where Betancur attacked in 2013 and kicked off the response which saw Martin, Scarponi, Rodriguez and Valverde break away in pursuit of Ryder Hesjedal who was up the road. When they joined up with Hesjedal he rode his legs off to maintain the 8" advantage over the chasing bunch who were struggling to bridge. It was enough to deliver the group to the final hill up to the finish in Ans with enough of a gap to allow them to fight it out for the win. 

The final hill to the finish is almost dead straight uphill and is one final, brutal, deciding test - 1.5kms at 5.6% with a left hand turn 100m from the line. Go too early and you could be caught late like Rodriguez in 2013 or Pozzo and Caruso last year. It can pay to attack it like Martin in 2013, it can pay to sit on the wheels and wait for the last 200m like Gerrans last year.

Contenders and Favourites

One important point to bear in mind about this Sunday's race is that the weather is going to take a turn for the worst after what seems to have been weeks and weeks of dry, sunny races. It is expected to rain on Sunday with showers forecast for most of the day, reaching a max temperature of 15°. This could make the race more dangerous, and it could also give some riders who like the cold and wet more of a chance. 

This week has thrown up a number of clues and form guides from the Amstel Gold Race and Fleche-Wallone, most notably that Valverde is in ominous looking form once again. It's also thrown up a few points to cloud the thought process and confuse things with the crashes of several fancied riders on Wednesday and the disappointing ride by some, such as Michael Kwiatkowski who faded badly on the Mur de Huy. 

I have to start with Valverde as he is now rightly favourite at just 3/1. This is partly of course down to how well he has done this week with 2nd in AGR and his powerful win in F-W, but also because of what has happened to some of his biggest rivals, with both Dan Martin and Philippe Gilbert crashing and injuring themselves on Wednesday. He was boxed in at the bottom of the Cauberg so missed the Gilbert attack, but once he got out he easily got across to the leaders and looked very comfortable. 

Winner of this race in 2008, he has also finished 2nd twice and 3rd once. Last year it looked for a while like he might just win again, but thankfully Simon Gerrans was too fast for him in the sprint. He, like Gerrans, had hidden away for more or less the whole race, only appearing where it mattered most, in the final kilometre.

His form is obviously really good, three stage wins in Catalunya were followed by two top six finishes in Spain and then the 2nd and 3rd in this week's classics. He will probably wait for the sprint again and it's hard to see him out of the top three. 3/1 is short considering a break could make it or someone with a faster sprint, like Gerrans, could do him at the finish, but he has a big chance of winning in my opinion - he was 4.8 on Betfair on Wednesday night, almost 4/1, so I took some of that.

My favourite for the race just a few days ago was Dan Martin, but his ongoing run of bad luck has struck once again and it's looking unlikely he'll be fit enough to win. He was caught by a falling bike and rider on Wednesday in F-W, which is a real shame as it was absolutely not his fault and there was nothing he could have done to avoid it as it happened so fast - he was well positioned towards the front of the peloton at the time.

He looked in a lot of pain and for a while it looked like he didn't even want to continue, refusing a bike from a team-mate. He did eventually get going and with the help of more or less the entire team he was brought back in to the peloton. He didn't finish the race and I don't know at what point he called it quits, there has been very little information coming out of Cannondale or Dan since the crash. He has drifted in the betting now though from around 6/1 to as big as 12/1, 10/1 generally. Finally, today, on Friday there was an update from Cannondale to say he had some scrapes and contusions and a sore neck, but that he was hopeful of riding.. I'll watch the updates I think on him right up to the last minute, as that worries me, especially the sore neck part. 

Second favourite now though is Michal Kwiatkowski and the World Champ is also looking to go a few places better than last year when he finished third behind Gerrans and Valverde. Brilliant in AGR when he sprinted to victory, he let his supporters down with a rather limp finish to Fleche-Wallone, running out of puff quite quickly on the Mur and finishing way down in 33rd place.

It may be that his effort in chasing down the leaders and then outsprinting Valverde and Matthews in AGR took its toll on him and he hadn't recovered properly. But it does worry me a little that after another hard race like that on Wednesday and with only three days recovery time going in to one of the hardest races of the season that he might struggle a little towards the end again on Sunday. I may live to regret this but I can saying that he will not win and the 6/1 is a poor price for him. He may not even make the top 3. 

Joaquim Rodriguez has come close here on three occassions in the past, finishing second in 2007, 2009 and 2013 when he was outfoxed by Dan Martin in the famous 'Panda' finish. He has come in to some good form too in recent weeks with a decent showing in Pais Vasco to win two stages and finish second in the hill TT. He didn't have a great Amstel Gold but that was blamed on he being held up by a crash, he went better in Fleche-Wallone, finishing 4th, but as he said himself, they were all just hanging on to Valverde's wheel and when Piti kicked he had no answer. He clearly goes well on this climb but always seems to find one too good for him. He is sure to be at the front of the pack heading in to the last kilometre, but it will be very difficult for him to beat the likes of Valverde again. 

What about reigning champ Simon Gerrans? It has been a rough year for Gerro so far, firstly falling off his mountain bike in the off-season in Australia and injuring his shoulder. Then he comes back to a dangerous race in Strade Bianche and falls off and damages his elbow. As a result, he has had only raced for 8 days and 1,350kms this year so it's hard to expect him to be in top shape.

Having said that though, he will be fresher than some and got in a good training race in Amstel Gold last week, where despite working for the team he finished only 1'32" down. He also posted on Instagram today after an LBL recon ride 'Looking forward to Sunday' with a picture from the bus (right). He may not be in top shape, but as a result he is a very tempting price at 66/1 with PP. If he can hide himself away like last year again, and get the likes of Durbridge, Clarke, Impey and Weening to do the brilliant job they did for him last year (especially Weening in the last 5kms) then you never know, he might just get to the last hill in a reasonably fresh state and pull off a repeat of last year.

Philippe Gilbert looked to be in poor shape after his crash in Fleche-Wallone and I can't see him playing a big part in the finish Sunday. Even if he hadn't crashed he wasn't on my short-list so he definitely isn't getting my vote after seeing how he limped away from his crash. That could leave the door open for other members of the BMC team to go for it. Tejay Van Garderen tested his legs in F-W with an attack in the last circuit. He may try a long-range attack again but it will be very hard to pull off an Andy Schleck I think. (there was an update from Gibert today where he has said he did 3 easy hours on the bike and the pain has gone down a bit, but that he can only push a max of 500w at the moment and he will need to hit 1200w at the finish on Sunday.. Phil doesn't win...)

Ben Hermans won the Brabantse Pijl very well a few weeks back but it's unlikely that he'll be involved in the finish, he'll be on domestique duties again I think. Samu Sanchez just isn't good enough any more so that leads us back to a man who has been one of the best riders of the year so far, has improved his climbing a lot and has a wonderfully aggressive attacking style that could pay dividends again and he doesn't mind the wet conditions... And he is a ridiculous 150/1 for the race.. That man of course is Greg Van Avermaet.. He is sure to be involved in attacks near the finish and I have to have a small bet at that price. (he's now 125/1 best price, still worth taking though..)

Vincenzo Nibali was fancied by some last year, I didn't think he was going to be involved and that's how it turned out as he finished in 30th place, 50" behind the winner, despite some dangerous looking moves at times. He has shown some flashes of form and desire to attack in recent races, going up the road and shaking things up in Amstel and being active in F-W also. It triggered a slide in his price again and he is now as low as 10/1, but 14/1 in a few places. That sort of price doesn't appeal to me at all, as like last year, I can't see him attacking and getting away from all these guys and if it comes to a finish like last year, he won't beat the likes of Valverde or Kwiatkowski.

Rui Costa has been quietly going well lately too. 3rd in the hilly final road stage in Paris-Nice to Nice, followed by 3rd place in the TT up the Col d'Eze. He was always to the fore in Pais Vasco, finishing no lower than 26th place, but took 9th on the tough stage to Aibar and then finished 8th on the hill TT. He took a brilliant 4th in Amstel last Sunday (left, behind Kwiatkowski) and for a while looked like he might have fancied it in F-W on Wednesday as Lampre came to the front to chase down Tim Wellens at the foot of the Mur.

It wasn't to be for him though as he slipped down to 28th by the finish, but Sunday is more his sort of race. He crashed out last year with around 76kms to go so we didn't get to see how he might have fared at the finish, but the year before he finished in 9th in the group 18" behind Martin. He likes the wet conditions, remember how horrible it was the day he won the World Championships) and I think he will be in the final selection on Sunday and he could pull off a big result at 28/1.

Tim Wellens has been very active in recent races, most notably escaping from the front of the flying peloton in the closing stages of F-W. To build the lead he did at that point in the race shows he is very strong at the moment..  He did go pop on the Mur, but that was to be expected, but he got a good bit of training in to his legs ahead of Sunday! The hills of LBL suit him a lot better though and he was targeting a good result in the Ardennes races, this is his last chance! I wouldn't be surprised to see him go on the attack on either the Redoute or the Saint Nicolas, possibly going with the likes of Nibali and Van Avermaet. It will take a supreme effort though to stay away - at 80/1 he was a bet, at half that price I'm not so sure. 

Lotto-Soudal have a few cards to play though, with Tony Gallopin and Jelle Vanendert, although Vanendert is also another crash victim from Wednesday. Gallopin though is going well, with excellent 4th place and 6th place finishes in his last two races in Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold. 6th in the World Championships hilly course last year, winner of that lumpy stage in the TDF, which had 3 Cat 3 climbs and a Cat 4 climb, he clearly likes it when it's hilly, but not Alpine-like. His two participations in this race have seen him finish around the 30th place mark, so it looks like he struggles to go with the best on the Saint-Nicholas, it could be the same Sunday.

Domenico Pozzovivo came close to winning this last year, only being reeled in by Dan Martin right at the very top of the hill before the finish straight. He had a strange week in Trentino, getting a hunger knock near the finish on the second stage and then sprinting away from Porte and co to take the victory the next day. He looks too short to me now, and I'm not just talking about his diminutive stature! I don't think he'll be let get away so easily this year and will find it difficult in a sprint to win.

His best chance might be to wait until the final climb and try a Dan Martin, but he doesn't seem to be explosive enough for that. He's as low as 18/1, but even at 33/1 I'm not backing him. It looks like AG2R could have a few cards to play here as well, Romain Bardet has been targeting this race and is really looking forward to it. He rode Trentino purely as training and preparation for Liege and is happy with his form. He has said that he plans to go on the attack near the finish and the climb of the Col du Rosier is one he is pleased they added as that could be the one where they try to isolate some of the other leaders. Top 10 last year, he has big hopes of finishing top 5 on Sunday, and he has a good chance of going close at 40/1, but maybe the 10/1 for a top 3 finish with 888Sport might be the play. 

AG2R also have the other little pocket-rocket Rinaldo Nocentini, and Bardet mentioned him as another option for them as he is 'in shape'. 12th in both AGR and F-W, he has excelled on courses that aren't really his cup of tea, so he must be 'in shape'! 2nd in the lumpy Milano-Torino race last year (ahead of Rodriguez and Contador), he missed this race through injury but the year before he finished 14th, and in 2011 he finished 11th. You have to scroll way down on the odds sheets to find him, he's 150/1, but maybe the 40/1 to come in the top 3 might be worth a small poke. 

Dani Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso could go well for Katusha as number 2 and 3 card to play, but I don't think either of them will win. Tom Jelte Slagter and Nathan Haas could be thrust in to action if Martin isn't 100%, Slagter in particular looked good in F-W on Wednesday, not knowing Martin was out when I caught a bit of the action, I thought for a moment it was him at the front of the race on the Mur. In fact it was Slagter, who was among the first 10 for most of the way to the top and finished a creditable 9th. 6th last year in his first attempt at the race, he could be a surprise package at 50/1.

And there are just so many others that could go well - Dumoulin, Gasparotto, Henao, Alaphilippe, Mollema, Rolland, Albasini, Arredondo, Scarponi (5th in 2013), Quintana, Yates.. there are just so many potential winners in the race, I could write another thousand words on them. But I think that's enough for now, time to make my mind up.

Valverde is my number one favourite again, after a good win in F-W on Wednesday - I think it will be a real race of attrition, especially if the weather conditions are poor and the roads slippy and he is a master at hiding away and being in the right place at the right time at the finish. He has a decent team with him, he can even call on the services of Nairo Quintana if he needs someone to string things out on a climb. If it comes to a reduced group again, there aren't many that will beat him. 

After that, I really want to back Dan Martin, just in case his injuries aren't too bad and he is involved going in to the final climb. If he arrives there with a similar group to last year or the year before, he will ride through the pain barrier in order to try to avenge last year's fall. I might wait until Sunday morning before deciding whether to back him or not based on more information, but that might mean missing the prices that are available now for him.

And then I am going for a number of long shots and not-so-long shots that I think could give us a run for our money at the finish.   

*UPDATE - 25/4, 22:00*

It seems Dan Martin is suffering from a little whiplash from the crash but says his legs are perfectly fine.

“I’m definitely fit enough, it’s just seeing where this whiplash I’ve got is. It’s improving every day [but] I also don’t know what will happen during the race tomorrow. Six hours like that on a bike, it could make it worse and I’ll have to stop. At this point in time we’re optimistic that I can be competitive tomorrow.”

I think with that in mind, and the fact his legs are fine, I am happy to keep my bet on him on Betfair at 15/1. I see also that he has been backed a little too, the 14s with PP last night is gone, now 10/1, but he is 12/1 with BetVictor and that might be worth an each-way bet. I also spotted on Betfair that a massive £1377 was matched on Martin at 11/1 - that's a huge chunk laid by someone, risking £7500 or so that Martin will not win, but equally, someone (or several people more likely) took the opposite side of the bet. So it's either the layer knows something about how bad he really is, or it was someone taking a stance that he'll be too injured to win, and someone else out there knows more about how well he actually is and piled in!! 

Another update on my bets is that GVA is no longer a starter, which is a shame as I thought that was a decent outside shout. We'll get the stakes back on that bet though. Valverde is still coming in for support, is a solid 3/1 on Betfair now, Gilbert has drifted to 30s, Nibali is drifting a little but Costa has been backed from 30s in to 20s and Gallopin and Bardet are shortening up a little too, lots of people out there like their chances it seems. The 66/1 on Gerrans is gone, it's now 40/1, but there is 50/1 available with Boylesports, who are paying out on 4 places. 

Recommendations: 

2.5pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 3.8/1 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 25/1 with Betfred who are paying 4 places

0.5pts win was matched for me at 29/1 on Betfair on Costa also

0.2pts each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 125/1 with Paddy Power who are paying 4 places (no longer on the startlist, will get stakes back)

0.4pts on Romain Bardet to finish in the top 3 at 10/1 with 888 Sport

0.3pts on Rinaldo Nocentini to finish in the top 3 at 40/1 with 888 Sport

0.1pts on Nocentini to win at 150/1 with 888 Sport

Couldn't resist a small bet on Gerrans though, 0.25pts each-way at 66/1 with Paddy Power

Wait and see on Dan Martin, I did put up 1pt win on Betfair at 15/1 and it was matched tonight, he seems to be on the drift now, Valverde is shortening up more.. now in to 4.3

Match Bets:

Costa to beat Mollema (4/7) and Wellens to beat Hermans (8/13) - 2pts win on the double at 6/4 with Bet365

Nocentini to beat Scarponi - 2pts at evens. Add Gasparotto to beat Gilbert (1/2) in a 2pt double, it pays 2/1.

Bardet to beat Fuglsang - 1.2pts at 5/6

Slagter to beat Gallopin - 1.6pts at 11/8 

Also - Please read this - I'm going to be making my Giro d'Italia previews subscription only like last year, sign up early and get 10% off the cost!