Details: Published on Thursday, 24 April 2014 00:13

Liège-Bastogne-Liège

Liège to Ans

Sunday 27th April, 253kms

The 100th edition of Liège-Bastogne-Liège should be another race to savour as it looks wide open with some old favourites and some of the young guns going head-to-head again. Dan Martin is the defending champion and given his performance in Fleche Wallone who would bet against him retaining his title?

At 262.9km long, 'La Doyenne' is the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. Martin-liege-bastogne-liege The finish is of course a very tough hill in the same mould as the Cauberg in Amstel Gold and the Mur de Huy but is also preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way, most notably the Côte de Saint Nicholas. This comes with just 5km to go and often sees a final selection before the last climb up to the finish in Ans.

Who can forget last year's race when Daniel Martin rode away from Joaquin Rodriguez in one of the most exciting finishes of the year to take a sensational victory. It also provided one of the most iconic scenes of the year when a fan in a panda costume vaulted the barriers inside the last 500m and ran after Martin and Rodriguez just as Martin had bridged and started to sand-bag on Purito's wheel forcing him to ride.

Martin eyed him up and down, saw he was on the limit, took a look around at the Panda and took off. It was a brilliant victory and one of my best results last year too as I had tipped him up at 22/1 (and just over 7/1 to place) in my previous home for my previews, on the Kingston Wheelers club forum! This is what I said about him and his chances:

LBL-prediction

Indeed, even the call about Hesjedal was spot on as he buried himself in the last 5kms to set Dan up for the win, despite having been on a solo attack before that. To say I got just a little excited inside the last 500m was an understatement..! It was a brilliant race and one of my favourite moments of 2013.

The previous year's edition saw a valiant effort from Vincenzo Nibali fail with just over 1km to go, when Maxime Iglinskiy caught and passed him and rode away to a surprise victory. The previous year was another great race, one where the Schleck brothers came to the finish with Gilbert and still managed to lose out to him in the sprint. 2011 was a dopers podium with Vinokourov, Kolobnev and Valverde followed by Gilbert and Evans. 2009 saw probably Andy Schlecks finest hour as he rode away from them all to take a sensational win by 1'17" from Rodriguez.

This is one of the great races - one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly 2 times. Added to the prestige this year is the chance to win the the 100th edition of the race, so it is sure to be keenly contested.

The Route

The route may be called Liège-Bastogne-Liège, but in fact they finish in the town of Ans to the north west of Liège. The route follows a broadly familiar route, but this year for the 100th edition, the race has been altered slightly to take in the slopes that have marked the history of Liège-Bastogne-Liège. As a result, the sequence of the Wanne, Stockeu and Haute-Levée slopes has been rearranged. It also sees the re-introduction of the climbs of the Côte des Forges and the Côte de la Roche aux Faucons which was removed last year because of road works.

In addition, there is also the little matter of a €5,000 prize for the 'Bastogne Sprint' at the 100km point which will make it worth while for those who brave going in the long break of the day. It should ensure that the start of the race will be frantic as there are sure to be plenty of riders interested in that prize who will want to get away.

As they head south out of Liège there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for over 260kms with a relentless course of hills ahead of them. Although they will have crested several unclassified climbs along the way, the first classified climb comes after 70kms with the Côte de la Roche-en-Ardennes. The real action starts after 167kms on the way back to Liège though, with the trilogy of quick climbs of the Côte de Wanne, Stockeu and Haute-Levée. Of the three of them, the Stockeu is the toughest - a nasty 12.4% for 1km with parts up to 15% and it is ridiculously narrow - barely the width of a car. Right at the bottom they hit a 90 degree turn on to the climb and it can be carnage as they all try to charge in to it together.

Roche-Saint-Nicolas The next major test is the Côte de la Redoute after 218.5kms. If you are a fan of the Sufferfest videos you may be familiar with this steep but very narrow climb - the road is barely wide enough for a car to get up. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills.

With 31kms left they hit the Côte des Forges (1.9kms@ 5.9%) and this is followed 12kms later by the Côte de la Roche aux Facons, another horrible climb considering they will have 243.5kms in the legs. 9.3% average for 1.5kms is really going to hurt and should reduce numbers way down for the last 18kms or so. The last 500m average nearly 11%. This is where a major selection will be made in the race, even the riders know it, see Vanendert's quote in the Contenders section.

Then the penultimate test of the Côte de Saint Nicolas which was where Betancur attacked last year and kicked off the response which saw Martin, Scarponi, Rodriguez and Valverde break away in pursuit of Ryder Hesjedal who was up the road. When they joined up with Hesjedal he rode his legs off to maintain the 8" advantage over the chasing bunch who were struggling to bridge. It was enough to deliver the group to the final hill up to the finish in Ans with enough of a gap to allow them to fight it out for the win.

The final hill to the finish is almost dead straight uphill and is one last test - 1.5kms at 5.6% with a left hand turn 100m from the line. Go too early and you could be caught late like Rodriguez last year. If you are ahead with a small group and you start looking around playing cat and mouse, you could be caught. You really have to ride it eyeballs out to the line.

Route Map

Liege-bastogne-liege-map

Profile

The Key Hills of LBL

Roche-Saint-Nicolas haute-levee-forges Stockeau

Last 5kms

Contenders and Favourites

dan-martin-fleche-wallone-2014 I have to start with the reigning champ Dan Martin as this has been a very strange week for him and his fans. First up he pulls out of Amstel Gold with a twinge in his knee, leading many to think he may not ride LBL or be in great shape if he did. Cue a jump in his price for Fleche Wallone to 25/1 from 16/1, and to a massive 50/1 with Paddy Power for LBL. On Sunday afternoon his agent tweeted to say he's fine and all systems go for next two races.

This had me a little confused as I was thinking, if he has a sore knee, why ride FW? Wouldn't he be better off resting and waiting for LBL? Then Tuesday night Martin tweeted to say he was looking forward to FW, one of his favourite races, and finished it with #wereready which I guess was meant to be "we're ready". That was enough for me to have some 25/1 each way for FW and I also couldn't resist the 50/1 for LBL - he sounded confident that all was well again and I would have not been happy had he put in a big ride and halved in price...

It may have been all a bluff, maybe he just was having an off day in AG and blamed a knee pain, but his performance in FW made a mockery of those odds, as he briefly, with about 200m to go looked like he was going to win. But they are 200 of the longest meters in cycling and he was passed by a flying Valverde.

Afterwards Jonathan Vaughters tweeted to say he had emailed Dan after AG giving him a bollocking for pulling out of the race, that he should have stayed and worked for the team. Vaughters was taking credit for firing him up for FW but it drew quite a negative response from fans. He didn't care, it seemed to have worked. Either way, he is now 7/1 general to win on Sunday.

It is quite short now but I think he definitely has a great chance. The course will suit him even better this year than last with the return of the Roche-aux-Facons. There will be a selection there and on the Saint Nicolas and I would expect him to be a key part of the selection. He has a very strong squad with him and they will be riding for him. If any of them can do the job Hesjedal did last year then he has a great chance.

valverde-fleche-wallone-2014 He may have a great chance but the competition is seriously hit this year again. Favourite for the race at 7/2 is Alejandro Valverde and it doesn't need explaining why really. His power at the finish in FW was just another demonstration of the form he's in this year. The Movistar team worked hard for him and he delivered, despite disappointing in AG. Winner in 2006, 2nd in 2007, Winner in 2008, 2nd in 2009, 3rd in 2010 (struck off for doping), and 3rd in 2013, it's safe to say he knows how to do well in this race. It would be foolish to rule him out on Sunday.

He was probably as angry with himself for letting Gilbert go as I was as I had tipped him, and was more fired up Wednesday to make amends. He's short at 7/2 though I think. He disappointed in Amstel Gold when in a great position, just didn't have the legs to go with Gilbert. Despite its finish, FW is an easier race and I think he may be caught out near the finish like last year but as he is in such good form I think I will have a saver on him..

Third favourite is Philippe Gilbert at 6/1 and I am not interested in that price. I went against him on Wednesday citing the steep gradients and it was the right decision. He has had a super few weeks but maybe this might be a bit tough for him on Sunday, I just saw a chink in the armour on Wednesday that is putting me off him. I think there are others with better chances.

One who has a great chance to be up there at a decent looking price is Simon Gerrans. The Australian was gutted apparently with 3rd place in Amstel Gold last Sunday as he really fancied his chances, and is really up for it this weekend. He just couldn't match Gilbert's burst when it came but kept going to the line and took a good 3rd beating Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He seemed to be obsessed with Valverde and vice-versa and they let Vanendert slip away like they did Gilbert. It could well be a small group come to the last hill together and if he can hang in there then he should out-sprint most - but he will have to be a lot more alert and aggressive and not allow riders get away like in AG.

10th last year, he just missed out on the break that went when Betancur blew things apart, he was chasing with Valverde, Nibali and Gilbert who were all found out on the Cote de Saint Nicolas. 19th in 2012, 12th in 2011, 11th in 2010, 6th in 2009, he's been in the top 20 in all of the last 5 years so it would be foolish to suggest that he can't handle this much climbing over this distance. He should be there or thereabouts on Sunday and the belief is very high in the camp.

nibali-liege-bastogne-liege-2012 One rider who has come in for a lot of support this week is Vincenzo Nibali, as apparently he fancies his chances in it. There's no doubting his quality or even his ability to ride a race like this - but he has had mixed results here over the years, from a dead last (2005), DNF (2006), 71st, 10th, 39th, 28th. 8th, 2nd and 23rd last year. The year he finished 2nd he attacked brilliantly on the descent of the Roche Aux Facons but was caught and passed when absolutely out on his feet in the last kilometre (right). He's preparing for the Tour rather than the Giro this year so his condition isn't 100% yet and I fear he could be found out again on the Saint Nicolas. He's had a pretty quiet season so far with a 3rd place in a stage in Oman his best result. I'm going to skip him as I don't think he is value at 16/1.

Joaquin Rodriguez is a puzzler for this weekend - has he recovered from his injury or not.. If he hasn't, I'd lay him to place all day. 2nd of course last year, outwitted and out manouevered by Dan Martin. 2nd also in 2009 but 'won' the race behind Andy Schleck. He's also had a few rubbish years like Nibali! Personally, I don't think he's going to be fully fit for this and could be left behind on the Saint Nicolas or the last climb up to Ans. For that reason I'm not backing him, even though a fully fit Rodriguez would be a possible top 3 candidate.

Michal Kwiatkowski I think will fade before the finish as has been the case on a few races this year, I don't think he'll be fighting out the finish. Bauke Mollema is an interesting one and could go well here this year. It's possible he may go for it on the Roche Aux Facons or the Saint Nicolas and is capable of staying away on a good day but I think he is pretty short around the 20/1 mark.

froome-legs-2014 And what about Chris Froome? The Tour de France champion caused quie a stir this week when a picture of vein-lined, super skinny legs did the rounds on t'internet (right). There are very few times in the year we will see Froome in a battle like this and although he should possibly have the necessary power and stamina to be there or thereabouts I feel he will not make the race-deciding move as he might be lacking top-end racing fitness.

Lampre bring quite a squad to this race with Rui Costa (33/1), Diego Ulissi (66/1). Damiano Cunego (125/1) and Niemiec (150/1) amongst their stars here. A spring season that started with lots of promise for Costa, Cunego and Ulissi has turned in to a disaster with 17th places in RVV, AG and FW the best that they have been able to muster. Of the three mentioned above, Costa is probably the most likely to be in that race winning move that goes on the Saint Nicolas.

9th last year, one place ahead of Gerrans in that chasing group behind Martin's, he too was caught for pace when the decisive move went. I think those who were involved in that chase last year will not make the same mistake this year and will watch for splits very carefully to try to keep things together. If Costa is one of maybe 10-15 riders who come to final climb you wouldn't put it past him to attack like he did in the World's last year. At 33/1 he might be worth an each-way bet. Niemiec comes here on the back of a tough Giro del Trentino and I think it might be too much to expect him to be up there at the front at the end of 260km here.

Jelle Vanendert is also 33/1 for this - he is clearly going really well with a superb 6th in Fleche depsite a swollen and fluid filled knee, to follow up his excellent 2nd in Amstel Gold. 18th in 2013 just ahead of Gesche and Ulissi, he came home in no-mans-land solo behind the Gilbert/Gerrans chase. If a move like that goes this year I think he is in better form and will have more confidence and should be able to mark it. I'm just not sure he has the devastating kick to attack and win and he would be outsprinted by a few of the likely rivals at the finish. So he's a good shout for a top 5 I think, maybe even a top 3 at 6/1.

Lotto are talking up his chances too and he is quoted on their facebook page as saying he is in great condition and his confidence is high - "The big difference with the Amstel is the fact that I can get to Sunday in all serenity. I don't have any doubt about my condition anymore. I do still feel my knee, but I don't really have hinder while racing. But the shape's good. I've got the same feeling I had two years ago.". He goes on to say "the real explosion will come on La Roche-aux-Faucons. I have to see I start the climb on the first rows because the better riders will be shifted from the others. The best scenario for me? Riding solo to the victory."

So they are the main contenders - what about some outsiders at big prices? Simon Geschke has been riding very well this year and has already bagged a 6th in Amstel Gold and a 4th in Brabantse Pijl. At 125/1 with Boylesports he looks a bit of value each-way as he was 19th last year but seems in much better form this year. Tom Jelte Slagter I think will be working for Martin, so unless a break forms that he is in, that Martin isn't in, then I don't think he'll be in the top 6 Sunday. Daniel Moreno will also be playing his usual supporting self to Purito Rodriguez, so again, like Slagter, unless something happens his main man I dont think he is worth backing at 33/1. Romain Kreuziger has a shot but is too short I think at 33/1, I can't see how he can win it, neither a solo break or a small sprint victory. 15-20th place I think for him.

Romain Bardet could be AG2R's best shot at 66/1 but I'm going to pass on that, Carlos Betancur ranges massively from as low as 33/1 to a high of 100/1 but I think he will not be involved at the finish like I called on Wednesday - it was clear to anyone that he is not 100% at the moment and he limped home in 36th, a minute back on Valverde. That sort of performance would have me pricing him at the 100/1 end of the range and not 33/1 for sure.

Can the Schlecks rediscover the magic that has seen them do so well here in the past? Frank looks the more likely of the two as Andy has been embarassingly bad all season and 250/1 seems about right, even though he's a former winner. Different times now though for Andy.... Frank was unlucky at Fleche when Cunego's crash caused him to brake hard to a standstill and his race was over. He seemed to target fixate and get involved in yet another crash which was a shame, as it would have been interesting to see how he fared up the Mur de Huy. He could be a dark horse at a big looking 100/1

Alexander Kolbnev has finised 11th, 2nd and 9th in this race and is available at 150/1, as is Maxim Iglinsky who won this in 2012 but I don't see them making the top 10 this year. And finally, a rider who has finished 7th, 10th, 10th, 13th and 15th in this race - Samuel Sanchez has been riding in to form in recent weeks. Set up Gilbert with a dummy attack at the base of the Cauberg, he tried to lead out Gilbert in the Fleche as well but finished back in 34th. At 80/1 he could be an interesting one if Gilbert isn't 100% and misses the decisive moves, but I think it will take that for Sanchez to be given a shot. He's worth a tiny investment at 80/1 though just in case.

So that's it, I've only named about 40 riders above, pretty easy to narrow it down isn't it! Well I will narrow it down though to the following. Dan Martin has an outstanding chance of making podium at worst again but is a little short now at just 7/1 general but there is some 8/1 with BetVictor which is better than Betfair - I'm very pleased with my 50/1.. Simon Gerrans will be right up there fighting to get to the finish for a sprint win. Alejandro Valverde is the man to beat though and is worth a saver. Simon Geschke, Samu Sanchez and Jelle Vanendert can be wildcards at decent looking prices. Nibali, Rodriguez and Costa can be there or thereabouts too but not good enough for the win.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 50/1 with Paddy Power , 8/1 with BetVictor is acceptable.