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Published on Friday, 18 April 2014 11:13

Amstel Gold Preview

Maastricht to Valkenberg

Sunday 20th April, 251.4kms

The 49th edition of the Amstel Gold Race starts at 10.15 local time in Maastricht in the Kimburg region of the Netherlands and there is a fantastic line-up looking to kick-start their Ardennes campaign in style with a win. Romain Kreuziger surprised the favourites last year, but who can pull it off this year? 

This is a fairly new race on the Classics calendar, as it only had its first running in 1966 but it is the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. The history of it is almost comical as to its formation, this is from Wikipedia:

 "The first race, on April 30, 1966, was organised by two Dutch sports promoters, Ton Vissers and Herman Krott, who together ran a company called Inter Sport.

Vissers was a house decorator and hockey player from Rotterdam whose break in cycling came in 1963 when a friend asked him to manage a minor team in the Tour of Holland. Those who were there say he was as hopeless as his riders. Officials banished him after he did a U-turn and drove back towards the oncoming race after hearing that one of his riders had punctured. Three years later, in 1966, he became manager of the Willem II professional team that at one time included the classics winner, Rik van Looy of Belgium.

Krott's background in cycling was scarcely deeper. He ran a car-parts dealership called HeKro and, because he admired the Dutch rider Peter Post, worked as his personal assistant. He had also worked as a salesman for Amstel. Together, Krott and Vissers organised small races across the Netherlands. Krott also used his contacts at Amstel to start an Amstel professional team and then the sponsorship to run an international professional race bigger than the round-the-houses events Inter Sport had been promoting until then. 

Things started going wrong from the beginning. Krott and Vissers had announced the start, the finish and the distance without taking into account the many rivers and the zigzags needed to cross them. The course would be far longer than 280 km. Further plans were made to start in Utrecht, then in Rotterdam. The finish was moved from Maastricht to the unknown village of Meerssen. Less than three weeks before the start, the organisers realised they had not obtained permission to cross the Moerdijk bridge, the only way out of Rotterdam to the south. The route had again to be redrawn and the start moved to Breda in the south.

The problems had not ended. Whatever the police thought of the constant changes they were asked to approve, they now had bigger concerns. The Provos, militant hippies, had declared Holland a state of anarchy. At the other end of the social scale, Dutchmen were also protesting against the marriage of the queen's daughter, Beatrix, to a German, Claus von Amsberg. The police feared that a race organised on the royal family's big day would bring uprisings and possibly attacks.

On April 26, Vissers and Krott called off their race. But still there was a twist. A press conference to break the news had just started when the Dutch roads ministry in The Hague called to say the race could be run after all — provided it was never again scheduled for Koninginnedag"

The modern day race has of course a lot less issues and it is now one of the biggest spring races, kicking off the Ardennes campaign. It's a tough course littered with climbs (13,000 feet of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?!) that suits the climbing puncheur types more than outright climbers and sprinters as a look at recent winners shows.

Romain Kreuziger won last year's race after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert made a super attack on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and he ended up in 5th place. Valverde just hung on for 2nd from Gerrans.

Enrico Gasparotto was a surprise winner in 2012, outsprinting Vanendert and Sagan after Gilbert had again lit it up on the Cauberg but faded towards the finish. It denied Gilbert a hat-trick of wins as he had won the previous two editions. 

The Route

The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and a little further down the road, at Borgharenweg, the 251.4km race officially begins. After just 9kms they hit the first climb of the Sligerberg but things start to get serious after 50kms when they hit the Sibbergrubbe (2.1kms at 3.6% avg) as it is followed just 5kms later by the first passage of the Cauberg, which is tackled a total of 4 times in all during the day.  

The Cauberg plays a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. It's an iconic climb for the sheer numbers of Dutch and Belgian fans that throng the hill screaming on their heroes. It has recently also gained fame as the finishing hill where Gilbert won his world championship in 2012.

Once over the Cauberg they start out on the circuit and the hills come thick and fast - 16 hills over the next 110kms before they go back over the Cauberg for a second time. They hit the Wolfsberg, Loorberg, Schweibergerweg, Camerig, Drielandenpunt, Gemmenic, Vijlenerbos and Eperheide one after the other. The St. Remigiusstraat: Huls after 145.2km is one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%.

Once more over the Cauberg and its out on to a shorter circuit. After the Geulhemmerberg (1200 metres, 4.6%) comes the Bemelerberg (900 metres, 4.5%), then the Loorberg for the 2nd time (1500 metres, 5.3%) and the Gulpenerberg (600 metres, 5.7%).

Next up is the Eyserbosweg (900 metres, 9.3% with a max of 17%) which is regarded as the toughest climb of the day. Then the Fromberg (1600 metres, 3.6%) and another tough one in the Keutenberg (1200 metres, 5.9% hits a max of 22%!) and back over the Cauberg again.

The final circuit is shorter again but the pace will be really high at this stage. They tackle the Geulhemmerberg and the Bemelerberg again before the final ascent of the Cauberg. Like last year though the finish is not at the top of the Cauberg like it used to be, but instead is 1.8 kilometres after the top. This allows the race to come back together a little bit if the snappier climbers have stretched things out, but there may only be 10-15 max come to the line together, possibly only 5-10. 

Contenders and Favourites

You need to be able to climb for this race, but you don't need to be a pure climber! You need luck too - lots of narrow, twisty roads and street furniture sees plenty of nasty crashes - just ask Joaquin Rodriguez who was taken out of the race early on last year. This race sees plenty of surprise winners, with the like of Kreuziger last year, Gasparotto in '12, Ivanov in '09 and Schumacher in '07 in recent years. 

It's a 'home' race for Belkin and Giant-Shimano, but also for the many Dutch riders in the peloton. It's the biggest race of the year for the Dutch fans and there are many of their idols in contention this year. Once again though, as should be the way with a big race like this, there are many, many candidates who could win on Sunday, which doesn't make it easy to pick the winner!

I wasn't going to start with this man, but given his performance on Wednesday in the Brabantse Pijl, then I have to start with Philippe Gilbert. His form was a little unknown, but my faith that he had prepared adequately for the Ardennes classics was rewarded with a great win. He looked strong throughout, attacking early which could have been suicidal but had held enough in reserve to boss the final hill and cannily take advantage of Matthews being boxed in a little on the inside as they took the last corner. 

Twice a winner of this race in '10 and '11, he is very much at home on this circuit - it was of course where he won the World Championships brilliantly in 2012. He has a superb team with him with GVA, Hermans, Burghardt and Sanchez, all of whom are going to be needed to control things on the climbs, like Burghardt was doing last year when they hit the Cauberg for the penultimate time.

The one thing that might be slightly against him is that the finish line is so far back from the top of the Cauberg. He is bound to put in a big dig last time up, but he may find a few can go with him and also a small group close up to him in the chase to the line like last year when he missed out on a podium spot finishing 5th. He was 14/1 before Brantse Pijl but is only 8/1 now, which is a little short but I can see him playing a big part in the finish of the race.

The favourite though, and the guy I was going to start with is Alejandro Valverde who is best price 9/2 with Paddy Power , but is nearly 5/1 with Betfair. He has had a superb start to this year - 3 wins in Vuelta a Andalucia and the overall, wins in Murcia and Roma Maxima and three second places in the Pays Basque. He 'won' the sprint last year behind Kreuziger, and marked Gilbert and Gerrans his two main rivals on the Cauberg. He also took 3rd in 2008 and 3rd on this course in the World Championships of 2012 behind Gilbert so he knows the finish well. 

He doesn't have the best team in the race with him, but he doesn't need it. He will be at the front of the race as they hit the Cauberg and should be able to mark most of the attacks. He has one of the best sprints in a select group so should be capable of a big result. 

Third favourite is another rider in the form of his life at the moment - Michal Kwiatkowski at 15/2 best price. With 5 wins, including a superb victory in the Strade Bianche and 7 more top 3 places including some impressive sprints, he is one of the strong favourites on a course like this. He has without question the strongest team in the race with Tony Martin, Zdenek Stybar, Wouter Poels, Jan Bakelants, Pieter Serry and Michal Golas and he should be well protected all the way to the final run up the Cauberg when he should be able to handle himself. 4th last year, just pipped by Gerrans and Valverde in the sprint, he was part of the 15 man group that got away up the Cauberg and fought out the finish. He is sure to be there or thereabouts again this Sunday. 

Simon Gerrans is a bit of an enigma - he may be 'hiding' his form but as far as I am concerned he isn't 100% and I don't see him playing a major part in the finish Sunday, except maybe to try to look after Matthews like at Brabantse Pijl who has a small chance if a small group comes to a sprint together. 

Next in the betting is Tom Jelte Slagter at 17/1 best and he is one I like a lot - the little Dutchman will be roared around this course Sunday and has the form and the ability to be right in the mix as they hit the Cauberg for the last time. I tipped him as the winner when he won on a tough stage 7 of Paris-Nice and the finish to Sophia Antipolis is a little bit like the Cauberg with a drag of 5% average for 2kms. That was one of two stages he won in PN.

He has Dan Martin, Navardauskas, Haas, Howes and Langeveld to look after him and I can see him following the right wheels and pouncing near the line. It's also possible they'll send Dan Martin, Langeveld or Haas up the road early on so that the team doesn't have to work.   

Joaquim Rodriguez is an interesting one in that if the race finished at the top of the Cauberg he would probably be my favourite for the race. As it is though, even if he does skip away from them on the Cauberg, he would be reeled in over the last kilometre and would be beaten probably in the sprint by several of those mentioned already. 

Roman Kreuziger may have won last year, but as brilliant as the win was I think it was a bit of a fluke and I can't see it happening again. 

Next up we have the Lampre boys - I never thought I would be mentioning Damiano Counego as a possible contender in a race like this again, but the 'Little Prince' is in great form at the moment and is a former winner of this way back in 2008. 4th place in Strade Bianche and a 4th and 5th in the Pays Basque on his way to 11th place overall shows he is probably in the best form he's been in for a while. He could be one for the attack with 30-40km to go or maybe the penultimate time up the Cauberg to try to bridge to leaders like Kreuziger last year. He tried last year but just wasn't good enough. He was right in the mix in 2012 but crashed with Nordhaug just as the sprint for the line started (below) so could have had another top 5 or better. 

Then we have World Champion Rui Costa, and as much as I think he could have had a shot at this sort of race, I can't see the Rainbow Stripes being given any leeway. Finally they also have the rising star Diego Ulissi, who rode so well in the Tour Down Under in January. Winner also of the GP Camaiore, he hasn't really done much though in the last month or so and he may be a little off the boil Sunday. So they could go well, with Counego their best chance of a top 3 I feel. 

Enrico Gasparotto won in 2012 and came 3rd in 2010, he always seem to have his best weeks of the year around the time of the Ardennes classics, but I can't see him troubling the top 5 this year. Astana have a strong squad here with Vincenzo Nibali building on his Giro preparation, Andrey Grivko who was involved in the late breaks that Kreuziger escaped from, Iglinsky, Fuglsang and Dutch man Lieuw Westra. 

But there are plenty others that can have a say - Ben Swift could just stay with the leaders and would be a real danger in the sprint, but I can't see him hanging on when Gilbert, Valverde and co hit the afterburners in the last 3kms. Nordhaug and Mollema could be two with good chances for local team Belkin, but I can't see them troubling the top 5 but could be top 10 candidates like last year.

Finally we have the two I mentioned this week for Brabantse Pijl - first, Bjorn Leukemans who I bigged up on Wednesday and although he rode a very aggressive, strong race he just missed out on a podium finishing 5th. He was 7th here in 2013, 7th in 2011 and he could make it in the top 10 or so again. Tony Gallopin took a great 3rd for me in Brabantse at 33/1 and is capable of being right at the front as they come to the Cauberg last time up. He has a strong team with him to pull him up - Van den Broeck, Jelle Vanendert, De Clercq and Ligthart. If he can hang on to the coat tails of Gilbert, Valverde and co he has a strong chance in the sprint. At a massive looking 100/1 with BetVictor  he was worth a bet (60/1 best elsewhere, only 33/1 with Paddy Power).

Lotto-Bellisol are in fact sounding pretty confident ahead of the race, Jelle Vanendert said "I'm better now than at this point last season" when he finished 13th after being one of the chase group that caught Gilbert and co. Van den Broeck also says he is very looking forward to it and they are targeting a podium, but interestingly, Vanendert says  "Tony Gallopin has fast legs as an extra weapon for example".

Outsiders at big prices - Tom Dumoulin is a local boy and this is possibly the biggest race of his year. He could be one for the longish break away, maybe going with 40-50kms to go, and depending on the mix of the break (a Garmin rider, Lotto rider etc) they might have a chance of staying away. He would have to go solo though on the last lap to win possibly as he wouldn't be the best sprinter. But at 100/1 I think he is worth and each-way, he has been backed at as low as 42/1 (stupid bet!) on Betfair. He is actually available to lay on Betfair  at 89/1.

Sylvain Chavanel is another at a big looking 200/1 for the long breakaway, he could be IAM's biggest chance of success and he will have to go early to have a chance. Frank Schleck has been showing good form, notably in the Criterium International on stage 3 where he looked particularly strong in taking 4th place on stage 3 and 6th place overall. I can't see him winning it but there is 200/1 available if you think he can get in the frame. AG2R have a few with chances, Bardet and Minard could be two for the long range efforts at 200/1 and 500/1 respectively but even though he had a great Paris-Nice, I'm not touching Betancur even at 50/1, he was sick in Pays Basque and it takes time to recover from sickness. Long shots Simon Geschke, Voeckler, Dani Moreno, Caruso, Thomas, Marcato, Devenyns.. The list just goes on. 

There are so many in with chances, I could name 10 or 20 more, but for now, I am looking for Valverde to finally take a big one on Sunday with Slagter, Kwiatkowski, Counego and Gilbert right up there too. Gallopin at a big price and Dumoulin for the long range efforts. 

Recommendations: 

Alejandro Valverde - 3pts at 5/1 on Betfair

Tony Gallopin - 0.3pts each-way at 100/1 with BetVictor

Tom Jelte Slagter - 1pt each-way at 17/1 with Bet365

Tom Dumoulin - 0.5pts each-way at 100/1 with Betfred 

Damiano Counego - 1.5pts on top 3 finish at 8/1 with 888 Sport

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