Strade Bianche Preview

Saturday 8th March,

So we've seen some of the key classics men flex their muscles last weekend, with Boonen, Vanmarcke, Van Avermaet, Stannard, Vandenbergh and co. laying down some early season markers. This weekend sees Peter Sagan and Fabian Cancellara start their classics build up at the Strade Bianche in Siena, Italy.  

It's the eight running of the race, named after the white gravel roads that make up some 70kms of the course. Fabian Cancellara has an excellent record here, winning it twice (2008, 2012) but also has finished in 4th in 2011, 5th in 2010. In fact, of the four times he has entered it he has never finished lower than 5th!

The race started in 2007 as the Monte Pashi Eroica in October, won by Alexander Kolobnev, but in 2008 it moved to a place in March, generally a week before Tirreno-Adriatico. In 2009 it was renamed the Montepaschi Strade Bianchi and from 2012 has been known simply as the Strade Bianche! Other winners of the race include Thomas Lövkvist in 2009, Maxime Iglinskiy in 2010, Philippe Gilbert in 2011 and Moreno Moser in 2013. 

The Route

The route leaves San Gimignano in north west Tuscany and heads south in an anti-clockwise loop until they get to the finish in Siena, not all that far from where they started. They cross 10 sections of Strade Bianche, the last 3 coming inside the last 30kms. The profile doesn't look all that difficult but the little hills are relentless and several are in excess of 15%.

The key battles amongst the favourites could start as early as 120km in to the race as they hit the two long sections of gravel road: section 6 which is 9.5km long between Lucignano d'Asso and Asciano and then section 7 which is 11.5km long from Ponte del Garbo to Torre a Castello after 147km. Section 9, with 19km to go should make another selection of some of the stronger men, as it is 2.4km long and hits a maximum of 15%. Section 10 with just 13km left could see it whittled down even further as the 1.1km section of gravel hits a max of 18%.

But the section of road that could well decide the winner comes just 1500m from the line as they hit the final hill up to the finish line. It averages about 6% for a kilometre, hitting a max of 16% before dipping slightly for the last 300m. It is likely to be a small group of 10-20 that will hit that final few kilometres, and then it is the strongest man up the last hill that will win. The enter the old city under the arched entrance and after a sharp corner they enter in to the finish area in Siena's famous square. It was on this final hill that Cancellara rode away solo to take his two victories and he will no doubt be looking to do the same Saturday. 

Overall Contenders and Favourites

As it is a good warm-up for Tirreno-Adriatico and the cobbled classics to come there is a quality field lining up once again this year. Cannondale come with a very strong squad with last year's winner Moreno Moser back again, but most likely in support of team leader and probably favourite for the race Peter Sagan. They also have Oscar Gatto, Alain Marangoni and Maciej Bodnar. 

Astana have another former winner in Maxim Iglinskiy back to try again and is supported by a strong team of Tiralongo, Aru, Kessiakoff, Agnoli, Grivko and Guarnieri. Trek have dual winner Cancellara supported by the in-form Zoidl, veterans Jens Voigt and Popovych. Bradley Wiggins starts building his season for Sky, who also have fellow brits Ian Stannard and Luke Rowe fresh from good rides in the Omloop last week. Mark Cavendish rides for OPQS along with the recent Volta ao Algarve winner Kwiatkowski, Pettachi, Renshaw and Uran.

And it goes on. Cadel Evans is here for BMC, his first big test since doing so well at the TDU - it is worth noting that he won a stage of the 2010 Giro d'Italia on these roads. Diego Ulissi and Cunego are here for Lampre-Merida, Giant-Shimano have Barguil and Dumoulin, Movistar have Andalucia winner Valverde looking to continue the great start to his season. Katusha have former winner Kolobnev here, but also Luca Paolini who looked in superb shape in KBK last Sunday when he was going so hard at the front at times in the chase he was dropping his team-mates and the rest of the chasers. He clearly looked very frustrated Sunday with the lack of co-operation in the chase and will be looking to do something this weekend I think

Tinkoff-Saxo Bank have a very strong looking squad here too with local hero Daniele Benatti supported by Roman Kreuziger, Nico Roche, Paulinho and Mørkøv.

In short, it could be an absolutely fantastic race given the amount of riders that are in superb form already this season and other riders who have yet to really show us what sort of form they might be in! I for one can't wait to see the first clash of Sagan and Cancellara in what should be the first of many battles between them over the coming months. The weather forecast is really good thankfully with a dry, sunny day expected with temperatures of 15º and light winds from the north east. So as tricky as handling bikes on the gravel roads can be, at least they are doing it in dry conditions.

There are no prices out yet, but I would imagine that the order would be something like Sagan, Cancellara, Valverde, Ulissi, Iglinskiy, Paolini, Evans. Moser won it with a strong solo ride last year but I don't think he will be trying that this year unless Sagan is not 100% and he could be let go. Cancellara will have to try to get away solo as he knows he will be outsprinted by a number of his rivals, and we can expect a furious last 1500m if there is indeed a small group of favourites still together.

Alejandro Valverde is in imperious form following his demolition job of the field in Andalucia, winning the first three stages and the overall GC. Ulissi could love this course as could Evans. Paolini and the likes of Iglinskiy, Dumoulin, Bennatti, Stannard and Cunego could all try to go from further out. 

I'll update this when prices come out, but for now my top 3 favourites would have to be Sagan, Cancellara and Evans with Ulissi, Stannard and Paolini also well up the list of candidates. Come back closer to the time for the betting recommendations once prices have come out.  

**Update: 7/3/2014, 09:30** Further clues to form were delivered Thursday at the GP Camaoire. Diego Ulissi was very active towards the latter part of the race, getting in to a break of four that stayed away - he easily took victory in the four-man sprint from Montegutti, Areddondo and Simon Clarke. Prices are now out for the Strade Bianchi and Sagan is the favourite as expected at 13/5 with Bet365 . Cancellara is next at 9/2 generally, followed by Valverde at 8/1 and Ulissi who is between 7/1 and 11/1 (888Sport).

I think Sagan has to be backed at 13/5, I think he will take all the beating with the finishing hill as it is. In fact I wouldn't be surprised if it turned out like stage 1 of the 2012 TDF when Cancellara went for it on the hill finish in Seraing but Sagan was the only one able to go with him and easily outsprinted him at the finish. I am pretty confident Sagan will be right there at the finish, and it seems so is he, he was practicing his celebration wheelie yesterday in this twitter picture taken in Siena!

Prove generali di.....@StradeBianche!!!Con la partecipazione di @gatto_oscar e @ALANMARANGONI!! @cannondalePropic.twitter.com/ScNByT033M

— Peter Sagan (@petosagan) March 6, 2014

Cancellara as I said above is sure to be heavily involved again as he loves this race and loves the finish. He is just about backable at 9/2 each way but I think there are better bets elsewhere. Valverde is in superb form at the moment and the way he rode away from some pretty decent riders in Andalucia should mean he will be there or thereabouts at the finish also. He may be able to go with the winning move, or if not he may be next best chasing the leaders. If there is only one or two riders up the road then he is a good shout to get in to the top 3, but at 8/1 it is tight on the each way front as I can't see him winning it. If he does arrive at the finish with Sagan, Sagan wins.

So with Sagan, Cancellara and Valverde as likely top 3 candidates, who else could possibly spoil the party? Diego Ulissi, as I said above, was superb once again in Camaoire and he is definitely one of my favourite riders in the peloton at the moment. He is best price of 11/1 with 888sport and he may be worth a bet each-way to out-sprint Valverde and Cancellara should it come down to a four or five man finishing group and nab a podium spot.

Michal Kwiatkowski is an interesting candidate at a big looking 16/1 with Betvictor (he was even bigger at 20/1 I believe but that didn't last long). Solo winner of the Trofeo Serra de Tramuntana in early February and winner of the Volta ao Algarve in which he took two stage wins and a third place. It was the manner of the stage 2 win and the 3rd spot on Stage 4 that really catches the eye though - the win saw him take victory ahead of Contador and Rui Costa on a hilly stage and the 3rd spot he filled behind the same two riders on stage 4 was on an uphill finish too. He has the gears and power to go with the main moves and could be a dark horse to upset the top four in the betting. I have backed him each way at 16/1 to continue his strong start to the year.

Others that could do something different by going farther out could be Ian Stannard at 28/1 and Tom Dumoulin at 66/1 although I doubt Stannard will be let go as easily this week. Dumoulin is in good form too and is a very powerful rider that could infiltrate a break that gets away earlier in the race. His fourth place finish on a really hilly stage of the Eneco Tour last year shows he can handle a race like this also. He is worth a small bet each way at 80/1 with Boylesports.

I like the look of Luca Paolini but as it was pointed out to me by a few followers on Twitter, he is probably more suited to the Roma Maxima on Sunday so I'll wait and look at that. (cue a storming victory for Paolini Saturday at 28/1!)

Recommendations:

2pts win on Peter Sagan at 13/5 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Diego Ulissi at 11/1 with 888Sport

0.5pts each-way on Michal Kwiatkowski at 16/1 with Betvictor

0.25pts each-way on Tom Dumoulin at 80/1 with Boylesports 

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