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Published on Saturday, 05 October 2013 00:16

Giro Di Lombardia

Bergamo to Lecco, 242km

The 'Race of the Falling Leaves' takes place this Sunday in Lombardy and for many riders it is their last chance to shine this season. Some will head to the Tour of Beijing after, but for others, this is their last chance to make up for disappointment at the World's.

First off a look back to the World's last Sunday, which worked out absolutely brilliantly for me. Rui Costa landed the each way bets at 55/1 and win bets at 50/1 average on Betfair to make it a very profitable day for me. I said Rodriguez would attack on the last hill but wouldn't be able to shed everyone and that Valverde would find one or two to good, which is exactly how it turned out. Rodriguez rode a great race and was very unlucky, but Vavlerde has come in for a great deal of deserved criticism for not chasing down Costa when he went after Purito.

The race was chaotic and shed more than half the riders before they even got a chance to do anything on the finishing Circuit. All the Irish and GB riders were out, some because of crashes, others because they couldn't be bothered with suffering in the rain. I hope I persuaded some of you to not touch Froome and Wiggins. I said Costa would be involved in attacks over the last lap, and he rode a brilliant, tactical race. I also tweeted in the last 2kms that I layed a lot of Purito at 9/10 and 1/2 as I thought he would be reeled in, so it just added to the profit on the day!

Il Lombardia

So on to the last one day classic of the year, the Giro di Lombardia. A look at the podiums for the past six years or so shows you that it is a punchy, climber type that wins this race, with Rodriguez winning it from Samu Sanchez and Uran last year, and Gilbert, Cunego, Martin, Scarponi and Lastras featuring on the previous podiums. It is a very lumpy 242kms with some iconic climbs including the Valcava, Ghisallo and the Muro di Surmano - the 'Wall of Surmano'.

The course rolls along for the first 65kms or so before they hit the first of the climbs, the Valico Di Valcava. The Valico is almost 10km long and averages around 7%, but has a section about three quarters of the way up for 3kms that averages 11.5% and hits a max of 17%. It is too far out though to cause any real damage.

The next major climb though after about 155km is one that should start to cause some damage - the Muro di Surmano. It will probably not reveal yet who will win the race, but it is sure to show who will not. It may only be 2km long but it is a real leg breaker - average of 15.8% with a a maximum of nearly 25% on some of the many hairpins!

They then race down a fast, tricky descent (let's just hope it's not raining again, it was here that Gilbert crashed out in 2012, and several others including Nibali came down..) before starting up another famous climb, the Madonna del Ghisallo. This is relatively long at nearly 9km, and averages 6.2% - but that is quite deceptive as there is a long section of about 2.5km in the middle where it levels out and even drops a little - if you took that out, the average for the climbing parts is actually around 9.2% with a maximum of 14%. 

The Madonna should be the scene of the first big attacks, and this was where Rodriguez made his first moves in 2012 to set up victory. It is a legendary climb with a series of sharp bends. Once they hit the bottom of the descent there is only 20km to go until they tackle the final climb up the Salita di Ello to Villa Vergano. The Ello averages 7.4% for 3.3kms, with the last km or so being the hardest, at around 11.7% average - it was here that Rodriguez kicked on last year and I can see him try the same this year. From the summit there is only a very fast 10km descent in to the finish and any riders that have a reasonable gap should possibly stay away. 

Contenders and Favourites

As mentioned before, this is a race for punchy climber types, and there are a large number of them lining up on Sunday. 

Joaquin Rodriguez was a superb winner of this race last year, setting a record time up the Mur di Surmano before attacking again on the Salita di Ello. He held off a chasing pack that included S Sanchez, Contador and Uran and in doing so topped the World Rankings. He was left distraught last Sunday after blowing what should have been his world title, and you have to wonder how that will affect him. In an interview he gave this week with the Marca newspaper in Spain, he said that it wasn't easy 'to turn the page' after such a disappointment. On the other hand though, winning would go some way to ease the pain, and he also has the added incentive that if he finishes in the top two (and Froome is outside the points) he will go to the top of the World Rankings again this year. This race has an incredible record in the last 10 years for riders winning it back-to-back - Bartoli in 2002/03, Bettini in 2005/06, Cunego in 2007/08 and Gilbert in 2009/10. At 6/1 with Paddy Power he is quite short but he should be in the mix on Sunday at the finish in an attempt to continue those stats! 

Second favourite at around 6/1 also is his partner in crime from the World's, Alejandro Valverde. Valverde claimed he didn't have the legs to go after Costa but it looked more like he was just trying to ensure he guaranteed his 3rd place as he knew he would outsprint Nibali. Either way, it was a terrible result for Spain, even if they ended up with a silver and a bronze. Valverde had a tough race Sunday though and I think he may well not have had the legs to go after Costa. At 6/1 too I will be swerving him this week, but I stil expect a top 10 finish from him.  

Rui Costa, my favourite rider in the peloton after landing me bets at huge odds last week, dons the rainbow stripes for the first time this Sunday in Il Lombardia. There is the complexity of his role in the team though to cloud things a little - he is off to Lampre next year, so Movistar will probably be riding for Valverde rather than Costa. Or will they put their powers behind him to win the race for Movistar in the Rainbow stripes? He certainly is capable of it and is sure to be heavily involved again, as long as the celebrations from last Sunday don't affect him too much! He will obviously be riding with an added pep in his pedals with the World Champions jersey on him, but he will also find himself a heavily marked man - just ask Philippe Gilbert about that.. At 20/1 with Boylesports though he is worth backing each way.

Speaking of Philippe Gilbert, twice he has won this race, and in 2010 he did so in foul, horrible cold and wet weather. If it is anything like that again on Sunday he will be looking forward to it. Even though he has shown glimpses of form recently, he is a shadow of his former self, for whatever reasons... 9th in the World's was a good performance though, but he just wasn't able to match the power of Nibali, Costa and the Spaniards when they broke away. Top 6 is definitely a possibility, but I don't think he is good enough this year to win. Even at 14/1 he is not a bet for me. 

Vincenzo Niblali was a diappointing 4th in the World's, but at the same time he can't be that disappointed given he crashed and looked out of the race with only about 25km or so to go. Ok, so he got a lot of assistance from the team cars to get back on, but to get back on and then be the agitator and instigator of the race winning move deserves Kudos. He has crashed in this race on a number of occassions and is yet to record a decent result in it, and to be honest I can't see him winning it either this Sunday. He will not get away solo and there are too many who can beat him in a sprint if it comes down to a small breakaway sprint. He is available at 13/2 with Bet365 but I don't think there is value in backing him to win and there is little value in the each way at 13/2.

Daniel Martin finished on the podium in 2011 when he won the sprint for second behind Zaugg, ahead of Basso, Pozzovivo, Rodriguez and Niemiec. He crashed out of the World's so it is hard to know what his form is really like - I don't think his performances in the Tour of Britain would be good enough to see him win this, and interestingly he was unable to go with the winning move in Milano Torino on Wednesday, when he finished 11th. But he clearly likes this race and may well have been thinking about this race on Wednesday. He has been making very bullish noises about his ambitions so I think I will have to have a small each way bet on him at an interesting looking 28/1 with BetVictor. 

Peter Sagan is a big looking 14/1 for the race, but I think that is a fair price and am not sure he will be involved at the finish. He was also left behind when the road got steep and the famous four got away, but he did win the sprint for best of the rest to finish in 6th. I think the first moves on the Ghisallo might distance him and if not, when the winning break goes on the sections around 11% on the Elio he may struggle again as he'll have 230km in his legs at that stage. He is one to watch in-play though, but I won't be backing him at the start. 

Diego Ulissi is clearly a rider in top form, as he showed when he sprinted away from a quality field in the Milano Torino on Wednesday. His first move to bridge was very powerful and he had the guile and the legs to skip away from the other guys. This is a different type of finish though in that the steep bits come 9km from the finish and even if he got away on the ascent, I'm not sure he can hold off this pack all the way to the finish. He may also find himself riding for Michele Scarponi though, who is riding very well at the moment (16th in the World's but part of the main bunch that finished just after the 4 leaders) and also has a 2nd place in 2010 in the race, behind Gilbert.  Ulissi is 16/1 with BetVictor and Scarponi is 28/1 with Boylesports. If I was to pick one though it would have to be Ulissi, if Wednesday has not taken too much out of him, which I don't think it did, he looked very strong at the finish. 

Others to consider - Dani Moreno was strong on Wednesday, finishing 3rd, 36" ahead of his team leader Rodriguez, but that was a summit finish, his speciality. Alberto Contador showed glimpses of power on Wednesday too, coming back to the leaders very strongly, to finish in 5th place. He may well be involved at the front Sunday too but I can't see him winning. Nicholas Roche, his team-mate is also in great form and also suffered an early exit at the World's. He should like this kind of course and may well get in to a small race-winning move. At 100/1 with Boylesports he is worth a pound or two each-way. Rigoberto Uran was another very unlucky to crash out of the World's on Sunday, he had made it in to the race winning move, but overcooked it on a relatively easy bend and ended up doing a head over heels on a grassy bank. He has been getting physio all week since then on his injuries and says he is ok, but with that in mind he is far too short at 14/1. Forget about Froome, he hasn't a chance, same with Quintana.. if he tries to get away on the hills there will be 3 or 4 will go with him and most likely outsprint him. 

Some at bigger prices - Fuglsang has gone well here in the past (4th in 2010 in the rain); Simon Clarke did very well on Sunday considering the hilly course, finishing in 7th with the main bunch. This is his first time taking part in the race though so there is no form there to go on, but at 150/1 with Paddy Power he is worth a small win only bet. Van Avermaet at 80/1 is another interesting one, he should be right up there supporting Gilbert and may well try to get away on the run in to the finish if Gilbert doesn't have the legs. 

So, like the World's it is another extremely open race with lots in with chances for various reasons. The weather conditions could play a big part again with rain forecast and temperatures down around 16degs. I am going with Rui Costa as my main bet again this week, he owes me nothing and I am only playing up winnings, but I think he has a serious chance to cap a magnificent week for him. Martin, each way, Rodriguez to finish in the top 3 and a small win bet on Clarke and each-way bet on Van Avermaet. As ever, I will be betting in play and tweeting, keep an eye on that Sunday. 

@cyclingbetting.