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Published on Saturday, 28 September 2019 10:36

2019 World's Road Race

29th Sept, 285kms

The World Championships comes to England, with a lumpy and difficult course around the roads of Yorkshire, culminating in seven laps of a 14km circuit in Harrogate and an uphill sprint finish on Parliament Street.  

What a brutal race we were treated to last year, with the race blowing up completely on the Hottinger Holl climb in Innsbruck like most expected it to. The favourite for the race, 38 year old Alejandro Valverde, took the rainbow stripes in the end, staying with featherweight climbers Michael Woods and Romain Bardet and outsprinting them easily at the finish. 

It was yet another incredible result in the extensive palmares of Valverde, but it was also an incredible result for Canadian Rusty Woods in taking 3rd, he only started racing at World Tour level two years prior at the age of 29. Romain Bardet was exhausted and distraught at the finish with 2nd place, I think he knew he'll probably never get a better chance of becoming World Champion, but in reflection, surely he must he happy and proud of his superb 2nd place. 

Tom Dumoulin got dropped a little on the final climb, but fought his way back up to the leading trio in the closing, downhill kilometres, but then had nothing left in the sprint and just missed out on a medal. Gianni Moscon also rode a great race to come home in 5th, 13" back, with a small group of 6 finishing 30" later that contained Michael Valgren, Thibaut Pinot, Roman Kreuziger, Rui Costa, Julian Alaphilippe and Ion Izagirre. 

The surprise of the race you could say was that 5/1 2nd favourite Julian Alaphilippe just didn't have it when push came to shove on the final hill, despite his French team working really hard to set him up for it. He had ridden the perfect race more or less up until then, but couldn't stay with Woods, Piti and Bardet, eventually coming home in 8th place. 

The Route

Make no mistake about it, this is a tough 'Classics' type course - up and down all day on rough, heavy, wet and slippy roads. The race has two parts really, the first 185kms takes them out on a clockwise loop from Leeds heading north and back down to Harrogate, the second part is the 14km circuit around Harrogate that they do seven times. 

The leave Leeds city centre and do 10.5kms of a neutral start before they reach the start proper in Cookridge. Once the flag drops though they are straight in to the hills and dales - they have a little hill straight away as they head towards Otley and it might see the break of the day go as the peloton settles in to a rhythm. 

The road continues to rise for the next 60kms as they head towards the first 'climb' of the race. Just after Cray they start on the climb to Kidstones Pass - it may be 6.6kms long to the top, at just 1.3% average, but the 'tough' part of the climb is 3.5kms at 4.7%. Still pretty easy for these guys, but there are a couple of sharp kicks of up to 13.8%.

They descend down for about 8kms before turning west for about 10kms, passing through Aysgarth, where there is a short and sharp steep hill. The road continues to climb gently as they head to the bottom of the next climb, Buttertubs, the highest point on the course. It may be the highest point, but the climb itself is pretty short, just 2.2kms long, but it averages a much tougher 9%, hitting 15% in places. 

There are still almost 200kms left in the race though from the top, so it will be interesting to see how it is raced - will teams put the hammer down to try to strip out some weaker/heavier guys, or will they just roll over it. After 117kms they start to head south-east back towards Harrogate, and it's mostly downhill all the way, bar one rude interruption. 

Grinton Moor completes the trilogy of climbs that were also used in the Tour de France back in 2014 and they crest it with 160kms still to race. 3kms long at an average of 6.7%, hitting 13.5% in places is tough too, especially as the pace is going to be ramped up on this one as they head back towards the finishing circuit in Harrogate. 

The road climbs a little as they head in to Harrogate, and they enter the circuit with 98kms left to race. Almost straight away they hit the first hill on the circuit, climbing Otley road for almost 2kms at 3.3%, then they turn right at Beckwithshaw and descend briefly before going uphill again towards Pot Bank. They descend down Pennypot Lane, through a few big and small turns as they approach the 8km mark on the circuit, or just 6kms to go on the last lap. 

With just over 8kms to go they go through the wide curve heading in to the bottom of the climb of Cornwall Road which climbs for just under a kilometre at almost 7%, the toughest part of the circuit. They then descend down Harlow Moor Road and Harlow Moor Drive as the road starts to get a lot more twisty, with several tight turns in the last 5kms. 

There's a tight left that takes them in to the bottom of Cornwall Road, another little kick up for 500m, then they turn right and start the descent towards the finish, passing through another three tight bends, climbing gently, before they hit Ripon Road with 1500m to go. They then descend for about 800m at what is sure to be a furious pace as they will all want to hit that last right-hander on to Parliament Street near the front of what's left of the peloton. 

It is a tight bend and the road kicks up straight away once you are around the corner, with the finish line less than 500m away. The road climbs, but it isn't too steep and it's pretty straight all the way to the finish line. It's a funny finish to judge as we saw in the U23 race, riders were almost climbing in a slow-motion sprint, no one wanted to commit too soon and it really only opened in the last 150m when Eekhoff just proved the strongest. 

Contenders and Favourites

Mathieu Van Der Poel - 5/2

Is there any point in any of the rest of them turning up? He looks like he could win this race on a course like this, with a finish like this, against any rider in history, yet alone this peloton. A phenomenal athlete, he has been simply breathtaking at times in his first full season in the PCT, not even the World Tour. 10 wins, 7 more top 6 finishes in just 27 starts is a staggering return for any pro, yet alone a guy who is just 24. 

But it's not like we didn't know about him or were surprised he'd be a good bike rider, we all know he's the best MTB rider in the world, but I don't think many expected him to be just so good. His win in Amstel Gold will live long in the memory of anyone who watched it live on the day, his hat-trick of wins and his overall win at the TOB showed that he is absolutely at the top of his form right now. 

It staggering to think 12 months ago he'd be the clear favourite with the bookies for this World Championships, but the bookies are rightly running scared. Now just 5/2, he's almost half the price of multiple World Champion Peter Sagan. The course will suit him, the finishing hill will suit him, we saw how he DESTROYED the field on the uphill finishes at the TOB and he's got an incredibly strong team here with him.

Seriously strong domestiques in Pieter Weening, Jos Van Emden, Sebastian Langeveld, Dylan Van Baarle and Niki Terpstra, a strong and experienced road captain in Bauke Mollema, who will also be useful in looking after him on the climbs, and a great leadout man in Mike Teunnissen to get him in the right position to win the final sprint, if he hits the final bend in the first 10 he probably wins. In fact, the way he came from nowhere in some of his wins this season, he could be 20th and still win. 

The Netherlands will probably play the MVDP card and work for a reduced bunch sprint, keeping the pace high over the final laps in an effort to strip out some of the weaker sprinters. But they also have Bauke Mollema who could go well on this course from a late break-covering move (but he won't win a sprint), and Van Baarle is another who could cover late attacks by the likes of Greg Van Avermaet. 

What can stop him? Youth and inexperience.. He'll never have raced in a race like this before, Amstel Gold comes close, but the World's is very different altogether. There will be huge pressure on him as the favourite and it will be high stress for him all day to stay near the front and out of trouble in a big field like this.

The distance of 285kms might cause him some problems, but AG was 265kms when he won, The Ronde was 267kms when he was 4th and GW was 250kms. The pressure and difficulty will be starting a lot earlier on this course though, compared to the Classics, which can amble along until the last 60-70kms or so - this will be full gas all day with those hills in the early part of the course and the final circuit totalling 91kms of fast racing.

Peter Sagan - I wrote him off last year, as he hadn't a chance on that course, this is a different kettle o' fish altogether though and if it wasn't for MVDP he'd be the clear favourite to take his fourth Rainbow jersey. The course is almost perfect for him, the hard hills would have been a challenge for him had they come in the last 90kms and not the first 90kms, and the lumpy and twisty final circuit is right up his street too. And there are not many better than him at finishing off a race like this with an uphill sprint finish. 

On the face of it, it looked like Sagan didn't have a great race at the Primus Classic last weekend, when finishing 27th, but he did do all he could to try to pull back Theuns for his sprinter Ackermann, who managed to take 2nd place. Before that, he came vey close to a win in the GP de Quebec, just outsprinted by Michael Matthews, and only managed 18th in the GP de Montreal after not being able to go with the winning move. 

Nine top 5 finishes in the TDF, but only one stage win, he did take yet another green jersey home with him though. Where MVDP might lack experience and stamina for a race of this magnitude, Sagan has it in spades, you don't become three-time World Champion if you don't. 

He is the only decent rider on that Slovakian team, he'll be on his own with 50kms to go probably. He's definitely not the unbeatable Sagan this year, he has no one-day win to his name outside of stage races, and he had a poor spring classics season by his lofty standards. He is sure to be there or thereabouts, but there's something in his form that's stopping me from backing him. I might even lay him for a top 3 placing closer to the off...

Julian Alaphilippe - 6/1

The French come here with a pretty average squad, and their hopes rest mainly with their captain Julian Alaphilippe. It's a team full of diesel engines and Classics strongmen that will hopefully help keep the race together and Alaphilippe in with a chance of sprinting to victory up the final hill. Remi Cavagna showed how strong he is right now in the Vuelta, Tony Gallopin, Christophe Laporte and Florian Senechal are strong and experienced and Cosnefroy, Bernard and Roux will look after him on the early climbs.

But Alaphilippe doesn't really look like he needs much looking after, he has been one of the riders of the year, a rider that came very close to winning the Tour in July. We haven't really seen him much since the Tour, an understandable DNF at San Sebastian was followed 4 weeks later by a training spin at the Deutschland Tour. He then also got some more good training in at the Canadian races, finishing 7th in Quebec and 13th in Montreal. It was an impressive uphill sprint from him to take 7th in Quebec, and although he didn't record noteworthy results, he was on the attack a lot and looked good in both races. 

Could Alaphilippe try something a little 'Alaphilippe-ish' and not wait for the final sprint? I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack on the second-last lap or even further out and try to take a group of strong guys with him - if he gets the likes of Van Avermaet and Trentin with him, then three of the strongest teams in the race will stop chasing - and they might just be able to stay away.

Big ask though, but I think it might be his best chance of victory - if he waits for the sprint, he should go close, but I think he might find a few of the stronger sprinter types will be too quick for him. It will be up to the team to help strip out a lot of the sprinters, but the likes of Cavagna and Senechal are going to struggle on the hills. It might be up to Gallopin to try to cause some problems late on, but he hasn't really been himself this year either. 

Philippe Gilbert - 12/1

The Belgians come here with a strong squad of course, led by 2012 World Champion Philippe Gilbert. After seeing his career wane a little in recent years, Gilbert seems to have found the elixir of youth again as he has had a pretty strong season at the ripe old age of 37. Superb winner of Paris-Roubaix after bad luck in Flanders and DDV saw him DNF, he almost won the first stage of the Criterium du Dauphiné, outsprinting Mathieu Van Der Poel no less. 

Gilbert wasn't selected for the TDF squad as they focused solely on Alaphilippe's yellow jersey bid, but that saw him focus all his efforts on training for the Vuelta and looking to peak for the World's. It seemed to work, as he had a very good Vuelta, winning two stages, but being active and aggressive on a regular basis, testing himself on all sorts of terrain. 

His solo victory on Stage 12 was sensational, he bided his time all day, then simply rode all the others in the break off his wheel on the steeper parts of the run-in to the finish. And although his win on stage 17 was massively down to the strength in numbers of DQS in the break, and great team-work, his power at the finish was very impressive. He also finished very strongly on the uphill finish to stage 19, finishing 4th behind Bennett and Stybar, but seeing as their team-mate Cavagna was up the road, you wonder just how much Gilbert and Stybar gave it in the last 500m.

So Gilbert seems to be coming here at his highest level for a World's in many a year. Some of his team-mates aren't having brilliant seasons though, so PhilGil should have captain status. Greg Van Avermaet had had a mostly disappointing season this year, the move to CCC has not exactly produced the results. One win in Valenciana at the start of the season, and one in the Tour of Yorkshire in May was all he had this season up until he went to Canada for the races there last week. 

But then 3rd in the GP de Quebec behind Matthews and Sagan was followed by a win two days later in the GP de Montreal on that lumpy course. He came home ahead of Ulissi and Garcia Cortina, with Belgian colleague Tim Wellens also finishing well in 4th. It was a very impressive win by GVA, he was in the little group that caught Alaphilippe and Cosnefroy in the last 500m and then moved forward with Ulissi as everyone else (including Sagan who had done a lot to pull Alap back) faded. His strong sprint up that hill at the finish is exactly what's needed on Sunday, and I think he could have a big shout of taking the win, maybe even more so than Gilbert.. 

TIm Wellens is another who will like this course and showed the legs are good with his fine 4th place in that sprint in Montreal. He's the kind of guy who could profit from an attack with a lap to go with the likes of Alaphilippe and Trentin, he has the power to cover a move and press on strongly with a few others. 

It's hard to believe I'm talking about a 19-year-old potentially winning the Elite World's (and not the U23 race), but Remco Evenepoel comes here as one of the top 10 favourites for the race, and the ability to potentially pull off one of the most amazing results the World's has seen. Another of this season's crop of wonderkids, like MVDP, we've been hearing a lot about him in the last few years, but few would have expected a first season quite like he's had.

Winner of San Sebastian and the Euros ITT, like MVDP, he has shown that he can perform in many disciplines, but it's his powerful late attacks that have got him his best results at SS and the Belgium Tour. Of course there will be worries about a 19-year-old on this course, over this distance. He did win SS over 227kms, but that's a full 58kms less than Sunday's big one, and would not have been raced at the same intensity for as long.

But that win was incredible, and it could well be that we see Belgium send him up the road with a lap or two to go to stretch things out and allow the team a breather ahead of the final push. He has just said this week too that he is in the best form he's been in all season, his rivals will certainly be keeping a closer eye on him than any 19-year-old should normally warrant. And the quality in the Belgian lineup just keeps coming - Dylan Teuns has had a good season, winning a stage of the Tour and taking yellow for a day, and he's had a rest since finishing 12th in the Vuelta.

Yves Lampaert recently won the Tour of Slovakia after a 2nd place in the TT and 2nd in the tough stage the next day, and he also took 3rd overall at the Deutschland Tour in August. He had a disastrous TT on Wednesday though, when one of the fancied riders, but he'll be working for the team on Sunday, as will Tim Declerq. Oliver Naesen could be another late card to play, but mostly should be working to help set up PhilGil or GVA too. 

Michael Matthews - 22/1

Australia have a few strong cards to play here too, with Michael Matthews leading the squad, but Simon Clarke is looking in great shape too at the moment. Matthews has had a stuttered season with illness and injuries hampering him, and despite a lot of top 6 finishes he's only had two wins all season up until Quebec.

He took his second win in a row though there thanks to a smart move to dive up the right side of the road and stole a march on the others he held to the line as GVA and Sagan tried to catch him, but couldn't. That finish in Quebec is also a good prep for this race, with the uphill drag to the line - it showed Matthews has good legs, but will he last 70kms more and still be able to do that, or will he be able to stay out of trouble in order to be there challenging at the finish? That, i wouldn't be so sure about. 

Simon Clarke took a fine 2nd place behind MVDP in Amstel Gold, shadowing his big frame in the last 500m and was sucked along in the vacuum behind him. He also rode well a few weeks back at the Tour of Britain, finishing 3rd twice behind MVDP on those tough, uphill finishes. If anything was to happen to Bling in the race, Clarke will be ready to step up to the plate, and his stamina and experience could see him sneak in to a podium place at a big 150/1 with Betway. 

The rest of the team are made up of very strong domestiques who will be looking after their top two riders. Rohan Dennis, Luke Durbridge, Nathan Haas, Jack Haig, Mitch Docker and Rory Sutherland bring lots of power and experience, but I can't see any of them winning it, unless they manage to get in a lucky break that stays away..  

Matteo Trentin - 25/1

Matteo Trentin has been riding really well this season too, and even though he still seems to be 'below the radar' when it comes to big results, he's had an incredible 39 top 10 finishes this year, 15 top 3s and 6 wins. He has been in superb form in the last month - taking a 1st, 2nd, three 3rds, 5th and 9th in the TOB, second on the GC and 1st in the points competition. He was challenging Groenewegen on the flat sprints and MVDP on the tough, uphill finishes, showing his all round versatility.

He will like these conditions if it stays wet, he won his Euro title in Glasgow on a very wet and wintery day last year. He's a good bike handler and has a strong team here to try to set him up for a shot in the sprint finish. He has Bettiol and Moscon to look after him on the hills, and Puccio, Visconti and Felline to cover late attacks and do some chasing, with Davide Cimolai a possible lead-out for him at the finish. Given his great form at the moment on English roads, his penchant for bad-weather days and a strong team with him, I think he has to be on the shortlist at 25/1. 

But Italy have more than one option of course, and in Sonny Colbrelli and Diego Ulissi they have two more outside shots. Sonny Colbrelli will be well suited to this course and finishing hill, and should still be in the mix when a lot of other sprinters will have fallen by the wayside. He's been riding well of late too, 8th in Troffeo Matteoti behind Trentin, 5th in the Marco Pantani and 2nd in the Coppa Sabatini, the first one home behind Lutsenko. 66/1 might be a good price if he gets in the right move or there aren't too many stronger sprinters left at the finish. 

Diego Ulissi is in a similar mould to Trentin and Colbrelli, he loves a tough day in the saddle with lots of hills and a tough finish. He was very impressive in the finish in Montreal to take 2nd behind GVA, and in Quebec he sprinted well against better sprinters to take 4th. Again, if he can get to the finish with the lead group, he'll have a chance.

And he could well be one of those that manages to get away with a small group near the finish too, and if he does the Italians won't chase and the group has more of a chance of staying away. But against Sagan, MVDP, GVA and the like he will struggle to win that sprint. 

Sam Bennett - 25/1 

As short as 18/1 now from 150/1 a month or so ago, Bennett put himself firmly among the ranks of 'favourites' for this race with his superb showings at the Vuelta. Winner of two stages, one by a very wide margin, it was almost the stages he didn't win that saw his stock rise for this and his price tumble to 80/1, 33/1 and now generally 20/1. 

He's had a superb season, despite being snubbed for the Giro and the Tour. With 13 wins he's the second highest in the winners table this year, just one win behind Groenewegen, but has nine 2nd places to his name to Groenewegen's 4. Winner of stages in every stage race he has entered this year, except the Tour de Romandie (he only got to stage 2 and fell ill), he took the Irish Champs in fine style up the steep finishing hill ahead of Eddie Dunbar. 

He then finished 2nd in the Surrey Classic, but really should have won it, and took 3 stages and a 2nd in the BinckBank tour before heading to the Vuelta. Two stage wins, four 2nd places was a great return, but really he should have come away with at least four stage wins, had Bora made any more than a half-arsed attempt to support him on the tougher stages. 

His win on the uphill finish to stage 14 was fantastic, he simply destroyed his rivals in the last 500m, winning by a margin that deserved time gaps. His ability to get in the front split in stage 17 and stay there to the finish was also impressive, and there wasn't much else he could do in the finale when outnumbered so heavily by DQS rivals. It was similar on stage 19 when he charged up the hill after Cavagna, a hill a lot of people thought would be too tough for him, but without any meaningful help was just unable to catch him, having to settle for 2nd in the midst of four DQS again. 

Of course there are doubts he'll make this final circuit to start with, there's a lot of climbing to be done before we even reach Harrogate. And there are also doubts that he'll stay with the front of the race if lots of attacks fire off all during the latter stages and the race starts to splinter and blow apart. But he really impressed me in Spain with his ability to stay there on some of the tougher stages and with his uphill sprinting.

The rest of the Irish team will look after him as best they can - in Eddie Dunbar and Dan Martin he has two strong climbers to try to keep him in position on the hills, and Conor Dunne, Rory Townsend and Ryan Mullen will put in a shift to look after him as long as they can. If he can just get to the final lap with a peloton of 50 or so that set it up for a sprint up that final hill, I think he has a chance. Not much value left now at 20/1, but I am happy with my 150/1 and 80/1 tickets on him, will be shouting even louder than usual for him at the side of the road on Sunday...

Should Sam falter, well Dan Martin hasn't shown anything all summer to suggest he'll be a feature in this race. Eddie Dunbar should be able to hang in there for most of the race, but would prefer a much hillier course. 

Alexey Lutsenko - 30/1

Not someone I had been even thinking about for this race a few weeks ago, but the Kazakh rider has come storming in to our conciousness with a series of fine rides post a disappointing TDF. Two 3rds and first overall in the Tour of Norway, 4th overall in the Deutschland Tour, 2nd in the Coppa Agostini two weeks ago and then winner of the Coppa Benocchi and the Memorial Marco Pantani just last week. 

He won the Coppa Benocchi by over a minute solo, a stunning solo win, then followed that up with a sprint win from a bunch of 40 riders in the Marco Pantani. He clearly comes here in some of the best form he's had all year, to be winning races in that fashion, and he must surely now come in to the reckoning as one of the potential winners of the race. 

He's basically on his own though, his team would be one of the weakest in the race, so he could well be riding solo with 100kms to go. And it will be a lot harder to see him get away from a field like this compared to something like the lineup at the Coppa Benocchi or Marco Pantani. I just can't see him winning it, or even placing, save your money.. 

Michael Valgren - 30/1

Valgren leads a pretty strong Danish team here, with Kasper Asgreen, Mads Pedersen, Magnus Cort, Jakob Fuglsang, Michael Morkov and Chris Juul-Jensen all good riders for a course like this. Valgren looks to be leader of the team, probably by virtue of his classics palmares and a couple of decent rides this month, when he was 4th in the Bretagne Classic and 5th in Montreal.

But like all the Dimension Data riders really, this season has been a disaster for him, with no results at all in the spring Classics, in fact, no  results all season to speak about, with 6th in a stage in the BinckBank Tour the best he has managed. And on that basis, unless there is some miraculous transformation once he pulls on the Danish jersey instead of the DD one, I can't see how he is going to feature in this race.

Mads Pedersen or Kasper Asgreen could try getting in the late moves that could stick, Asgreen is looking very strong at the moment and Pedersen has just shown how good his legs are too with a rare win for Trek in the GP D’Isbergues. Magnus Cort could win a sprint from a reduced break sprint too, but he has not been himself this season either and I can’t see that happening.

Fuglsang would like it a lot more mountainous, he won’t be winning from a bunch sprint, but he could do what he did in Amstel Gold and clip off the front with someone like Alaphilippe and hope that indecision and squabbling about who chases gives them a chance. But I can’t see Danish hands in the air this Sunday I’m afraid

Alejandro Valverde - 33/1

You've had to make it a long way down through this preview before we even reached the current World Champion Alejandro Valverde. A tough, up and down course with an uphill sprint finish? Sounds perfect for him doesn't it, yet he is currently 11th favourite for the race at a tasty-looking 33/1. It's not been a vintage year for this vintage rider, he's 'only' managed to land four wins, including a stage in the Vuelta and the Spanish Nationals. 

He has had another 28 top 10 finishes though, highlighting his incredible ability to be involved in so many race finishes. This year though he's found it much harder to get his nose in front and will probably be disappointed with his TDF and Classics season results. And that is why he is 11th favourite and 33/1 I think, he will probably be there or thereabouts again, probably will finish top 10, but probably will not win it. 

It's a very strong Spanish team that is here though on paper, but will the paper become soggy and fall apart in the rain in Yorkshire? Luis Leon Sanchez, the two Izagirres, Emanol Erviti, JJ Rojas and Marc Soler will all be involved for most of the day, and I wouldn't be surprised to see one of the Izagirres, Sanchez or Marc Soler take off in the closing stages. 

But they might just have another secret weapon hiding in their midst in Ivan Garcia Cortina. He won a fine uphill sprint in this years Tour of California after a lumpy day in the saddle, outsprinting Max Richeze and Sergio Higuita no less. After a mediocre TDF and BinckBank he produced one of his better results of the season with 3rd place behind Van Avermaet and Ulissi in Montreal just two weekends ago. If they can get him to the finish hill, with Valverde and a few more to lead him out, he could just spring a big surprise at a big 100/1. (I got 175/1 this week, he's been chopped as short as 50/1 now)

Alexander Kristoff - 80/1

Kristoff is as short as 40/1 for this and I'd have closer to that price than 80/1. Well known for liking a tough day in the saddle in poor conditions, his Milan-SanRemo win looked like a day in Yorkshire this week. Also, his win in Ghent Wevelgem this year after another tough day in the saddle was the kind of performance he'll need for Sunday. Everyone was out on their feet at the end of that race, Viviani was hot favourite to take the sprint, but only Kristoff had the power left to take the win, 

He's been ticking along all season with a win here and there, and has had ten top 7 finishes since the start of August, including 6 podiums and 2 wins. He will be supported by a decent team, with the experienced Edvald Boasson Hagen, and lots of power in Amund Jansen, Sven Erik Bystrom, Carl Fredrik Hagen and Vegard Stake Laengen to try to get him to the finish with a chance. If he can get to the last 300m in the first 10, he has a big chance. 

Pascal Ackerman - 70/1

A strong-looking German team on paper again, but Ackermann looks to be their best chance and he's priced way down the field at a massive 70/1. He is as short as 40/1 in places, probably because he has shown really good form of late - his results in his last 4 races are 1,2,1,2. The first of those 2nd places should probably have been a 1 though as he won the sprint in the Primus Classic, but Ed Theuns had stolen a march and just held on. 

But go back a few races to the Deutschland Tour - yes, he won the first, flat stage, but the next two stages he was comprehensively dropped when the course got a bit lumpier. Those stages saw the likes of Kristoff, Colbrelli, Stuyven and Lampaert come to the fore, and I fear that it will be similar on Sunday, we will not see him involved in the finish. 

Germany also have John Degenkolb, who might hang in there, he loves a tough day in the saddle too, and although his form has been pretty mediocre this year he put in a decent ride in the GP D'Isbergues last week to win the sprint and take 2nd behind team-mate Mads Pedersen. He has only one win to his name though this season, in February, so I can't see him suddenly becoming World Champion Sunday. 

Nils Politt might fancy a go in a late attack, and Nic Arndt might actually have the best chance of staying with the leaders and giving it a go in the sprint, he's a monstrous 325/1 if you fancy a pound or two on him. 

Others to consider

There are so many others who will be looking to try something from the break or hoping to stay in there for a shot at a late attack or chance their luck in the sprint. Riders like Zdenek Stybar - he is surely going to try something in the last two laps to get away, he doesn't have the sprint to win, but has the power to possibly stay away if he gets a strong group with him. He might even be doing something like that for club over country, hoping to try to help his pals Gilbert or Evenepoel take the win...

Colombia have a superb team here, if it were on next year's course, I can't see any of them fighting it out for the win here. Estonia have Tanel Kangert and Rein Taaramae who might be in the mix at the finish, but hard to see them in the top 10.

It's pretty incredible given this is their home race, and how strong British cycling has been in recent years, but the GB team's chances have ended up in 'Others to consider' with Ben Swift at 80/1 their shortest price rider. Swift might be able to make it to the finish with the leaders, but it's unlikely he'll win, and the others just don't look capable of winning on a course like this either, especially as Thomas apparently looks like he's in the off-season already.. 

Latvia have decent riders in their three-man squad, Toms Skujins will like the course and the weather, and Krists Neilands has pulled off the win of his life last week with a stunning win in the Tour de Wallonie, managing to hold off the peloton on the final hill up to the Citadelle de Namur. They could be two dark horses to fly under the radar and try a late attack that might be given a little bit more freedom. 

Bob Jungels will be fighting on his own more or less for Luxembourg, and although he is in the mould of the type of rider who will clip off the front with 20kms to go and make a good fist of holding off the peloton, I fear that's the only way that he can win this race, and I can't see that succeeding.

Slovenia has great riders, but as we saw in the TT, Primoz Roglic is tired after the Vuelta, and you can only imagine that Tadej Pogacar is the same. Matej Mohoric from a late attack might actually be their best chance of a result. 

Conclusion

So crunch time. This has been a long preview.. 6,300 words, lots of contenders and guys in with chances, and it could well turn out to be a surprise result if weather conditions play a big part. Right now where I am, 30 mins from Harrogate the sun is shining and the sky is blue, but it changes so quick, it was pouring rain 20 minutes ago. And it will probably be the same tomorrow - a wet course, intermittent showers and a very hard and tiring day in the saddle. 

I think we could see a real war of attrition tomorrow with the field being reduced with every lap that they do of the finishing circuit and we could see a reasonably small group of 30 or so come to the finish together. That could give the likes of Alaphilippe, GVA or Gilbert the opportunity to skip off the front in the closing stages, and if there is no agreement on who will do the chasing, with team-mates obstructing and blocking, that could be it. But it could well finish a little like the U23 race I think, with a small group sprinting it out for the win. 

Mathieu Van Der Poel looks tailor-made for this course and comes here full of hope, but also with the lofty expectations of a cycling-mad nation. And it's not just the Dutch who will be supporting him tomorrow, MVDP has earned a legion of fans this year with his rides and many neutrals and genuine cycling fans would love to see him win it tomorrow. And I think he can do it. Yes, it is a much harder race than anything he will have ever done, but nothing seems to faze him and he looks incredibly strong, whatever is thrown at him.

Ok, he hasn't been his all-conquering self in the last few weeks, but I think he has only Sunday in mind and will be ready. If he gets to that final hill at the front, he will be one of the strongest. He is very short at 5/2 with the bookies, the 3/1 on Betfair is a little better, but I think we have to have him onside. 

I also am going to back some outsiders who should revel in the conditions and might just give us a shot at a win, or at least a place at ok odds. Matteo Trentin at 25/1, GVA at 25/1, Alexander Kristoff at 40/1 and Simon Clarke at 125/1 (150/1 is now gone). I'm also hoping for a massive ride from Sam Bennett, there isn't much value left at 20/1, but he is 28/1 with Bet365 and he might be worth a small e/w bet in the hope he is there in the last lap to give us some excitement. And a wild outsider in Garcia Cortina at 100/1.. 

I can't have Valverde, I think Gilbert might be outsprinted (and prefer GVA) and I think Sagan might just be a little short of what's needed too. It should be a brilliant, attricious race, and only the strongest men will be standing at the finish, and that goes for us watching on the barriers and at home too I think.. 

Recommendations 

2.5pts win on Mathieu Van Der Poel at 3/1 on Betfair

0.5pts e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 25/1

0.5pts e/w on Matteo Trentin at 25/1

0.5pts e/w on Alexander Kristoff at 40/1

0.5pts e/w on Sam Bennett at 28/1 

0.25pts e/w on Ivan Garcia Cortina at 100/1 with Betway

Matchbets

Trentin to beat Matthews - 2pts at 5/6

Will add more matchbet accas if Bet365 allow multiples eventually...