Details

Published on Saturday, 23 September 2017 13:36

2017 World's Road Race

Sun 24th Sept, 267.5kms

The course may have been boring, the weather oppressive, it may have been a course for sprinters, but in the end it was the Classics men who came out on top in 2016 in Doha, with the maestro Peter Sagan taking his second world title in a row. 

Mark Cavendish almost became world champion for a second time, but Sagan was just too powerful, charging through the pack at the end of a crazy 257km race that had a huge attrition rate, with only 53 finishers in total and just 12 in the front group that contested the win. 3rd on the day was Tom Boonen, riding his last ever World Championships, he just didn't have the power either to beat Sagan. Norway had Boasson Hagen and Kristoff but they sprinted against each other and ended up 5th and 6th, a strange situation that should have worked out better.

The contrast between this year's route and last couldn't be farther apart. From deserts and sand and scorching heat to rolling lush hills, rain and cold temperatures. From the bare roads and zero atmosphere to the wild fervour of the brilliant Norwegian fans. Last year's World's was a bit of a farce, a sacrifice to the world of cycling for the money gods. The only upside to it was seeing Peter Sagan win a second World's, there is no more fitting rider in the world to wear those stripes, and he's got a favourite's chance of retaining it for an incredible third year running, which would be the first time ever the men's Elite road race was won three years running by the same rider. 

The Route

A race of two sections as you can see in the maps below. The first 39.5kms are rolling along the peninsula from Rong heading south until just before Straume, then they turn right left and head east until they reach the circuit in Bergen. The route up to here has been quite rolling, but never reaches more than about 50m, so nothing to worry about. 

The circuit is 19.1kms long, but as they come on close to the end of the circuit on the first lap they do 17.9kms and then start on 11 laps of 19.1kms, making it a total distance of 267.5kms. That makes it the longest World Championships since 2005 in Madrid which was 273kms (and was won by Tom Boonen). It is 10kms more than last year's race but pretty close to 2012 when Gilbert won on the Cauberg ahead of EBH and Valverde. 

As they make their way towards Bergen they cross the magnificent Sotra Bridge. The suspension bridge is 1236 metres long, and has a free span of 468 metres with 50 metres of clearance. For both the riders and the TV-audience, this will be something to remember.

The final circuit departs from Festplassen and takes the riders up to Mount Ulriken where the riders will have a fantastic view over the city. Then the circuit goes around the old wooden housing in Sandviken, before the final stretch along Bryggen and the finish at Festplassen.

The circuit starts out with a flat 200m in a well-lit tunnel before entering the Puddefjords Bridge. After 2kms the first climb awaits at Solheimsviken. It’s about 500m long, but will be crowded with lots of fans and spectators. The second climb comes after about 5kms, and now the riders will face 1km at an average of 5%.

For the first part of the race, the race will take it gentle at this part of the circuit. The flat section will see the teams and riders preparing for the last and main climb up to Mount Ulriken. The 1.4km ascent is 6.5% average, so the climb will offer a good chance for a break away. from the puncheurs. After the climb of Mount Ulriken there is a descent with intermediate technical turns for about 1km, then it is flat towards the city centre where the final 2.5kms of the circuit is flat with no roundabouts. There is a sharp left with 1600m to go then it's pretty straight for the next kilometre as they flash past the 1km to go sign. Then there is a right, left and a right on good, wide roads before a 300m long finishing straight. 

The weather is forecast to be slightly better than was feared, with temperatures around 18° and not a lot of rain.. in fact according to some sites, there is only about a 4% chance of rain, so the race should be run in pretty good, sprint-like conditions. That is not to say we won't get some rain, but at least it doesn't look like it will be pouring all day. A gentle 5-6mph win will blow in from the south. 

Contenders and Favourites

Last year I finished my preview by saying "But knowing Peter Sagan, he'll either ride away from them all, or beat them all in a sprint - it's just going to happen, we all know it.... resistance is futile..." He was 5/1 last year, but I didn't back him, I just thought too many things might conspire against him. Not at all - as the race blew to pieces and there were only a handful left at the finish, Sagan was naturally there and outsprinted Cavendish and Boonen. 

So he's back again to try to make it 3 in a row, and he's the 9/4 favourite this year to do it on a course that suits him down to the ground. The climb of Salmon Hill starts with 7kms to go, it's 1.4kms long and tops out with just over 10kms to go. There is a 2kms descent and then a rolling last 8kms to the line. He can attack on the hill, he can attack on the descent, he can out sprint most of the guys who will be left at the finish of a tough race like this. 

He has been on fire again this year, winning when he wants, with 10 wins to his name, winning two stages of the Binckbank Tour recently and the GP de Quebec with ease just a few weeks back. He doesn't need a team as we've seen for the last two years, he can do it by himself. He has a massive chance of course, but the other nations need to try to work him over or it will be deja vu. 

Second favourite Michal Kwiatkowski comes here with a pretty strong looking Polish team, and this is far more to his liking than last year's race, when he didn't even travel to Doha. He's had an amazing season, starting with a win in Strade Bianche, then Milan San Remo, then 2nd in Amstel Gold and 3rd in LBL. He then worked his ass off for Froome in the TDF and followed that with another win in the Clasica San Sebastian. If there is one rider who has kept his form all season and looks like he could put it up to Peter Sagan, Kwiatkowski looks to be it. He's already beaten him in the sprint in MSR this year, has also won the Clasica San Sebastian, and is a former world champion of course, so he could be a major threat again on Sunday on a course that should hold no fears for him. 

Edvald Boasson Hagen represents the home nation and he too has a massive chance to win in front of the fervent Norwegian support. He has been in really good form this year, taking a stage in the Tour in fine style and being on the attack on multiple occassions, netting himself a very impressive two 2nd places and two 3rd place finishes. He also just won a stage in the TOB, won another but for his wayward sprinting and took two more 2nd places behind sprinters like Caleb Ewan to take 2nd overall on the GC behind Boom. 

Three stage wins and a 2nd place out of five and the GC in the Tour des Fjords, Two stage wins, a 2nd and a 3rd and the GC in the Tour of Norway, it's clear to see Eddie B likes to race on home roads. And I think everything this year has been built around winning this race. He is coming to the boil nicely, did a good TT without killing himself and he will have the support of a strong team here, roared on by the home crowd. 

Alexander Kristoff offers an excellent back-up plan should it come down to a hard-man's sprint, but the question is will he be there with repeated assaults of Salmon Hill, increasing in intensity every time? I think Eddie B will be there, I'm not 100% certain about Kristoff and although there seems to be a rivalry between them, as we saw with their failure to cooperate in the sprint last year and end up 5th and 6th, AK may just work for him this time around, to put on a good show in front of the home crowd.

The weather conditions and the distance will not be a problem for Eddie B, but he is just 7/1 in places, but as big as 11/1 with 365. The 11/1 appeals on an each-way basis, I think he'll come very close to winning this. 

Fernando Gaviria comes pretty high up in the betting too at just 14/1 (as short as 10/1) and he too is a rider to watch on a course like this. Mentioned at times as the next Sagan, he has a long way to go before he'll be able to emulate his Jedi master. But the signs are there.. He can climb over the punchy ones, he can stay close to the front and won't mind the conditions too much I think. You'd worry about the distance, being so young (just 23), but he could have won MSR two years ago only for crashing on the final bend, and he came 5th this year - that is 291kms don't forget. 

Ten wins this season, including four stages of the Giro (and the points jersey), he took a break after the Giro for a month, did the Hammer series in June, but then he injured himself in a freak accident while training in Colombia in July. He was training for a sprint when his foot unclipped and he whacked his calf muscle with his pedal, injuring it so badly it required surgery. So his prep was interrupted, but maybe that wasn't such a bad thing, he will come here fresher for it. And he did have a good build up to this, blowing away the cobwebs with a stage win and a 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th and 8th in the TOB, then won the Kampioenschap Van Vlaanderen just last week, beating Groenewegen in a sprint. 

His weakness might be his lack of hard miles since May and a weakish looking team around him, but he is well capable of looking after himself, as we've seen in MSR, he didn't have much of a team around him at the finish there.. It may even be that he gets looked after a little bit by his QuickStep team-mates, QS have many options in this race. I say weakish team, but they do have Nairo Quintana, Sergio and Sebastian Henao, Rigo Uran and Jarlinson Pantano, a seriously good bunch of riders, but I'm not sure they're cut out for a race like this one

And one of them is Matteo Trentin for Italy. Some seem to think that Elia Viviani is the value at 40/1 for the Italian team, but I think Trentin has to be their lead man and he has a great shot at winning this. He's been in excellent form, climbing superbly well in the Vuelta and taking four stage victories. Granted, he was up against the dregs of the sprinting world, but he got the job done repeatedly in dominant fashion. He won't have Jungels, Terpstra or Alaphilippe to lead him out here, but he will have the likes of Moscon, Ulissi, Colbrelli and even maybe Viviani to work for him.

But they also have a good number of back-up plans there - Gianni Moscon is in excellent form as we saw in the Vuelta, and his 6th place in the TT on Wednesday shows how good he's going. Some see him as a Classics winner in the future, so this course should suit him, but he did look tired to me in the TTT on Sunday and was dragging down Sky. Diego Ulissi comes here on the back of a win over in Canada and he is the kind of sneaky rider that could get away with a strong group with 15-20kms to go and go all the way to the finish, where he'd have a chance of a sprint win like in Montreal. Even Sonny Colbrelli has a chance if the cards were to fall right for him.

And Elia Viviani will have a chance too if it comes down to a reduced bunch sprint of 30-40 as their coach Davide Cassani has predicted, if he has made the cut. If he does, then they might have to change tactics, as Viviani is probably faster in a straight line sprint like this (and downhill) than Trentin, and he's in good form having won 5 races since the start of August and another seven top 10 finishes. He beat Groenewegen, Ewan, Gaviria and Kristoff in stage 2 of the TOB, but Gaviria got the better of him a few stages later. It's getting to the finish with the lead group will be his challenge though, he often gets lost in races like this.

Greg Van Avermaet is one of many potential winners in a powerful looking Belgian side, and he's another who the course looks tailor-made for. 2nd in Quebec, 7th in Montreal he looks to be coming in to a bit of form, but it's been 3 months since he last won a race, and that was in the low-grade Tour of Luxembourg. He was brilliant in the Flanders Classics season of course, winning E3, Gent-Wevelgem, Paris Roubaix and finishing 2nd in Flanders. If he can repeat that sort of form on a Classics kind of course, in Classics kind of weather, then he has a chance.

But I think it's from attacking with a small group from maybe 10-20 kms out and then attacking on Salmon Hill on the last lap that he has the best chance of winning. I don't think he wins if it comes to a bunch sprint, unless it's a seriously reduced field and Sagan hasn't made it for some reason.

Van Avermaet is backed up by a wealth of talented Belgians, many of which would be team leaders in most teams. Tim Wellens has been in good form of late also, winning the Grand Prix de Wallonie again just last week in fine style, soloing away to victory. He is likely to be involved in the closing stages here too, the conditions and distance won't phase him, and in fact, the wetter and colder the better for Wellens. I expect Wellens to try attacking from 20kms to go or so and seeing who will go with him, GVA and Gilbert can wait their turn then. I think it is a big ask for Wellens to hold off this quality field though. 

Philippe Gilbert won the World Championships in 2014 on his hill, the Cauberg of Amstel Gold fame, and he too must have been pleased to see the route when it was published. A smart puncheur, Gilbert has the ability to attack on all sorts of terrain, maybe making an unexpected attack on the flat rather than on the hill that everyone thinks will decide the race. He can also be used as a foil for Van Avermaet, or depending on how it's going, the other way around, GVA might attack and cause consternation and shake out a few, Gilbert then counter-punches and soloes to victory..

They also have outsiders in Oliver Naesen who will relish the cold and wet and is well suited to this course, and Dylan Teuns has been in great form for the last few months and he would have an outside chance in a reduced sprint. They don't really have an out-and-out sprinter for the race, Gilbert, GVA and Teuns will be beaten by a few of the best sprinters if it does come to a reduced group sprint, so it's up to Belgium to liven up the race. 

Jesper Stuyven is another outsider with a chance of trying something from afar, or even in the last 5kms or so. He has had an ok season, not as good as last year's but not bad at all with wins in the BinckBank Tour and the Hammer series. They also have Julien Vermote, Tiesj Benoot and Jens Keukeleire but I can't see any of them winning this.. 

Tom Dumoulin could try to emulate Pirrone of Italy who won the girls U23 TT and road race titles this week, he absolutely demolished the opposition as I expected him to on Wednesday, but even I was staggered by his margin of victory. He is a machine and if he can get a slight lead at any point the rest are going to have a big job of catching him. Unlikely though that a guy like Dumoulin will be able to solo to the finish against a field like this, but he is capable of a top ten I think.  

The Dutch also have Niki Terpstra, Lars Boom, Jos Van Emden, Danny Van Poppel and Bauke Mollema, I'd give Mollema the best chance of victory out of the squad, although Lars Boom looked strong in winning the TOB. It's a far different proposition to the TOB and a 10 mile TT though. 

Magnus Cort Neilsen is one who could give the travelling Danish support something to shout about, but his performance in the Vuelta left me scratching my head a little. He should have been challenging Trentin for the sprints, but he was not allowed to sprint apparently, but was tasked with looking after their three amigos for the GC push. Was it that he was a bit injured? Was he that much off form? He didn't feature at all. Or maybe it was all part of a big plan to win the Rainbow stripes in front of what should be a large Danish contingent who will have hopped on the ferries to come support their men.. Maybe he has been targeting this and preparing for it with Matty White and the rest of the crew, they would love to have the rainbow stripes in their squad next year. 

Australia will be looking to Michael Matthews to try to become the first World Champion from Down Under. He came very close in 2015, he won the sprint from the group, but unfortunately for him Peter Sagan was already celebrating his win up the road. A winner of two stages in the TDF, he took a month off to train specifically for this and returned to action with a 3rd, 5th, 3rd and 8th in his last four races. He was super poweful in the TTT with Sunweb and looks happy and relaxed at the moment.

He has a very strong squad with him and he might even be one of few riders with some semblance of a leadout train coming in to the last kilometre, with Matthew Hayman, Jay McCarthy, Luke Durbridge, Rory Sutherland and Simon Clarke there to drag him through those last few bends and down the finishing straight. I think he will like the course, I don't think it will be too hard for him, as a podium finisher in Milan San Remo and he will be one of the better sprinters at the finish. I think he has a big chance this year too. 

France have a very strong squad here too this year, led by the pugnacious Julian Alaphilippe. They did not think it was a course for sprinters so have left Bouhanni, Démare and Coquard at home and filled the team with climbers like Warren Barguil, Lilian Calmejane, Alexis Gougeard and Cyril Gautier. Alaphilippe is very similar in style to Kwiat, GVA and Sagan, so he's bound to be involved at the finish. I also like Tony Gallopin for this race though, I think he could be a real dark horse in this race for a late attack that might just stick. The others will be watching Alaphilippe and Sagan and co, and he might just be able to sneak away. At 66/1 he's my outsider long-shot. 

Germany aren't taking any sprinters to the race, no Dege or Greipel, and I can't see how any of the guys that are here are going ot win, unless they can tee up Rick Zabel and he pulls off the sprint of his life. Likewise I can't see GB, Spain,Slovenia, Russia, Ireland or the US winning this with any of their riders, it would be a big shock if they did. Portugal have a small chance with former World Champ Rui Costa, and Switzerland have an outsider in Michael Albasini, but again it would have to be a fortuitous turn of events that sees a small group go away and they winning it from a reduced sprint, or a late attack. Can't see it myself though. 

So how's it going to play out then? Well Conor Dunne is sure to be one of those to get the ball rolling with an early break, we might get 8 or 10 go from a wide selection of lesser nations, and they will build 10 mins or so on the way to the circuit. Italy, Germany, Belgium and Poland will start chasing with 100kms or so to go and I expect the break to be reeled in with 40-50kms left. Lots of attacks, the circuit is made for attacking, and there will be a high rate of attrition. I think there will be a number of crashes, the roads will possibly be greasy and wet, and 267kms takes a lot out of you mentally as well as physically.

There is going to be a headwind up the finishing straight, and from the finish as they head south towards the bottom of the circuit before they hit Salmon Hill, so it might not be the best idea to attack at that point, it will be better to wait and either attack on the hill, or hang in there and then attack on the descent and try to hold on in the run to the finish, but it will be hard with the headwind.

The race will really hot up in the last 3 laps or so though, and some will try their luck the penultimate time up the hill, there's 28kms left to go from the top of the hill. Then it's down to the last lap, and if it's still together there will be one last chance for the better climbers/puncheurs to try to get away, or at least shake off some of the sprinter types.

I agree with Cassani in that I think it will come down to a reduced group finish, I don't think the circuit is hard enough to completely blow the race to pieces and it will be very hard for someone, or even a small group to hold on over the closing 10kms, there will be a pack of 20-30 guys chasing after them, some teams like Belgium or Italy may have several riders who can contribute to the chase.  

Peter Sagan clearly holds the key to the race, he holds all the aces and as we've seen so many times now, he can not only decide if he wins the race, but he can also stop others from winning.. If someone or a small group attacks what's left of the peloton in the last 10kms or so, lots of the others will look to him to close it down. If Sagan decides to play bluff with them and not chase everything that goes then there can be a bit of a stand-off and the gaps will grow. It will then be down to the likes of Italy or Belgium to try to chase it back, but they will then be bringing Sagan to the line.. They will just have to 'keep throwing stuff at Sagan' as Michael Matthews said, they need to repeatedly attack him and see if one sticks.                                                              

Edvald Boasson Hagen could be one of those, we've seen him take two fine victories this year with late attacks, he's got the power to hold on. I could also see Gilbert and GVA giving it a go, and Kwiatkowski could also be a key player in this race. He has the jinx over Sagan too, in the races that they have come to the finish together he has beaten three times out of three, including that superb win by millimetres in Milan San Remo this year. But I think it may well come down to a reduced bunch sprint, and I'm putting my faith in Matteo Trentin to become the first Italian world champion since Alessandro Ballan in 2008. EBH and Matthews are two others I want to have an interest in, and  Gallopin for the long shot chance at 66/1.

Recommendations

1pts each-way on Michael Matthew at 14/1 with Boylesports paying 4 places

1pt each-way on Matteo Trentin at 16/1 with Corals

1pt win on Edvald Boasson Hagen at 11/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Tony Gallopin at 66/1 with Boylesports paying 4 places

Matchbets

Diego Ulissi to beat Gianni Moscon - 3pts at 6/5 with Will Hill

Valgren to beat Luis Leon Sanchez, Alaphilippe to beat Albasini and Wellens to beat Teuns - 2pts on the treble at 3/1 with Will Hill

Gallopin to beat Gilbert - 2pts at 5/6

Lutsenko to beat Rojas - 3pts at evens

Worlds ITT Championship 2017 >>

World's TTT Championships 2017 >>