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Published on Friday, 15 September 2017 21:36

2017 World TTT Championship

Bergen, Norway

Sunday 17th Sept, 42.5kms

The World Team Time Trial Championships roll around once again, and in stark contrast to the baking heat and sand of Doha the riders will face the cool temperatures and rain of a September in Norway. 

Etixx QuickStep pulled off a bit of a surprise last year by beating BMC to the title on the flat dustbowl of a course in Doha. I say a bit of a surprise, but they were the 11/4 2nd favourites, with BMC going off at the very low odds of 4/7. I couldn't see BMC being beaten last year, but beaten they were, by an inspired QuickStep team who were driven home to a 12" winning margin by Jungels, Martin, Lampaert and co. 

Since the Worlds TTT was re-introduced in 2012, QuickStep had won the first two, then BMC the next two, so QS were delighted to take their crown back off the men in red and black. Maybe the signs were there that Rohan Dennis and Stefan Kung were having issues, as they followed it up with 6th and 17th respectively in the ITT three days later. Third favourites last year were Movistar but they had a disaster with their strongest man Jonathan Castroviejo suffering a mechanical in the first few kilometres and they could only manage 6th in the end, over a minute behind QS.

Castro showed just how strong he was too by going out 3 days later and finishing 3rd in the ITT at 20/1. Instead it was Orica who took 3rd spot with a strong ride, but they were still 37" behind the QS men. Team Sky were a further 17" back in 4th while LottoNL did well to take 5th. 

There were a number of teams who just decided not to go though, because of the prohibitive costs, it was said that it was costing teams up to €40,000 to send a team there, money that a lot of teams just don't have. And a lot of them especially didn't want to pay it when they knew they didn't really stand a chance against the top two powerhouses, Tinkoff being one of the most notable absentees. 

The Route

A 42.5km TT that takes them from Ravnanger in the north-west, down to Bønes in the south in a horse-shoe shape and back up to Bergenin the north. The route rolls along between the seas and over the lumps and bumps for 30kms before they hit the eastern-most part of the route where they take on the key part of the stage, the climb of Birkelundsbakken. 

The climb is only 1.4kms long but hits an average of 7.8% for the second 500m and 9.1% for the last 400m. It won't be too much of an inconvenience being only 1.4kms long, but it will favour some teams more than others, and can really break up the rhythm. The word coming out of Norway is that the hill is tougher than they expected and some are worried about it.

After the top of the climb they descend for 6kms heading north and with 3kms to go they turn sharply left and head back the way they came towards the finish in Bergen. One thing to note, which isn't visible on the map below, is that there is a 400m cobbled section not far from the finish, which will add its own challenges. Maybe it's something the likes of QuickStep will make up a few seconds on compared to some of the lighter teams. 

The weather could have been an issue, but it looks like it is going to be very mild and nothing really to worry about - a little southerly wind giving them a little tail-wind on the way north away from the climb, but it'll only be about 4-5mph. There will be a small possibility of rain from about 4pm onwards, but it doesn't look like much at the moment. Tom Steels, QuickStep's DS said that if it rains the descents off some of the hills become like ice-rinks, so hopefully they won't have to worry too much about that. 

Contenders and Favourites

QuickStep Floors in their various nomenclature over the years have won this title in 2012, 2013 and 2016 and finished 2nd in 2015 and 3rd in 2014. They were super-strong last year in the heat and dust of Doha, and you'd think the conditions this year might suit them even more, possibly more than a lot of other teams. They have named a very strong squad for this, with Niki Terpstra leading the team, a rider who has ridden all six of the World TTT championships since its reintroduction, and a three-time winner. 

He's joined by Yves Lampaert, Bob Jungels and Julian Vermote who were on the winning team with him last year and the team is completed by Philippe Gilbert and Jack Bauer, two very powerful and capable riders in these conditions. They have been preparing specifically for this for weeks, according to Tom Steels, who added "we are quite confident in our chances of getting another good result. We trained really hard for this. In the past weeks we simulated on many occasions the Bergen parcours and I could see that the guys were ready for it."

He described the course as a "roller-coaster, with barely a metre of flat" and that should mostly be ok for the QS guys. The climb will be tough for them, but it's not much more than a tough Ardennes hill, something we know the likes of Gilbert, Lampaert, Vermote and Terpstra will fly up. And the cobbled section shouldn't be a problem to such veterans of cobbled classics, they'll be right at home there compared to others. 

Terpstra had a quiet Vuelta, but was working for the team a lot. He was instrumental in helping Trentin to his four stage wins, including when in the break with him on the day he won stage 10 when they had to get over the Cat 1 climb not far from the finish  and also helped look after David de la Cruz. He also placed 17th in the ITT and the team were 2nd in the TTT, 6" behind BMC, that team had Jungels, Terpstra and Lampaert. He was also in the team that finished 2nd to BMC in the TTT in Tirreno-Adriatico, along with Vermote and Jungels, and 3rd in the Volta a Valenciana TTT with Gilbert and Vermote - he must be sick of BMC in the last 12 months. 

Bob Jungels is a superb time triallist too as we know, and will be hugely important on the rolling course. He has had a decent year in the TTs too, finishing 9th in the ITT in the Vuelta and 3rd and 8th in the two TTs in the Giro. He did lose his National Champs jersey to Jempy Drucker this year, but it was on a short 18.7km course, but then went out and won the road race instead a few days later. He was in good form in the Vuelta too but was hamstrung by team duties, but when he put the hammer down in the latter parts of the stages he was immense. He will be vital to their success here. 

BMC were not happy to lose out on the chance of completing a hat-trick of wins last year, and they have said this week that winning it back was one of the highest priorities of the season. They are led by two big time trial engines in Rohan Dennis and Stefan Kung, and supported by Daniel Oss, Silvan Dillier and Miles Scotson. Manuel Quinziato was supposed to be riding, but interestingly he pulled out on Friday, saying that he thought the course was too tough for him and he didn't think he'd be able to support the team as best as possible. Instead Tejay Van Garderen will take his spot in the line-up, and he's not a bad replacement to have at all, his form has been ok this year. 

Jackson Stewart, the team's Sports Director is confident of a big showing from his boys: "We are super motivated to win the team time trial. After coming second last year we are even more determined to come back and be world champions again. I think the field this year is more competitive and the course is different to previous years. It’s probably a combination of the Ponferrada and Richmond courses. The course is hillier but it is really suited to our team. The longer climb in the last third of the race will be a crucial part where you need to stay together and hopefully have the whole team arrive together in the center of Bergen".

Dennis has won every TT he has taken part in this year, but had to pull out of the Vuelta on the rest day when 4/7 favourite for the key time trial, citing a chest infection which had him struggling to breath. Will he have recovered on time? Well he took immediate and drastic action to abandon the Vuelta like that with the TT there for the taking, obviously the Worlds is far higher in his and BMC's priority list. He will have had 13 days in order to recover, with maybe 2-3 days before he could really start to push hard in training, will it have been enough for him to be at 100%? BMC possibly wouldn't send him if he wasn't 100%, but even an 80% Dennis will be better than about 75% of the guys here. 

Of the six riders, Rohan Dennis, Silvan Dillier and Daniel Oss were part of the winning team in 2014 and 2015. Stefan Küng joined the group to win gold in 2015 while Miles Scotson is set to make his debut. Kung is another who is developing in to a fine time triallist, following in the footsteps of his Swiss hero Cancellara. He was part of the team that won the TTs in Tirreno Adriatico and Valenciana, but was also in the team that finished way off the pace in the Hammer TTT, finishing nearly 2 minutes behind Sunweb in 6th place. That team that day had Kung, Oss and Scotson, 3 of the 6 lining up here. 

Team Sky come here with quite a strong looking squad on paper and are led by double Grand Tour winner Chris Froome fresh from demolishing the opposition in Spain. I say fresh, but that race (on top of the TDF) has surely taken a lot out of him, and not just the race, but the revelry, celebrations and media responsibilities since winning last Sunday. Will he have been able to train much? Is he bothered at all, or is this all just a publicity tour for the double champion? Well we know he is the ultimate professional when it comes to training and preparing so there's probably not too much to worry about there. 

He is joined by Italian TT champion Gianni Moscon, Polish TT champion Michal Kwiatkowski, former World Champ Vasil Kiryienka, Geraint Thomas and Owain Doull. Moscon was brilliant in the Vuelta for Froome, hot how much did it take out of him? We didn't see him as much in the last week as we did in the first two, and let's face it, the competition for the Italian TT championships is pretty damn weak. Other than that his TT'ing this year has been pretty average at best. 

Michal Kwiatkowski has been one of the riders of the season though and won the Polish TT champs, and almost won the final TT in the TDF, narrowly going down to his compatriot Bodnar. His TT'ing for the rest of the year was pretty average, almost the signs of a man who was only interested in performing in the races he was targeting. He did ok in 7th in the TOB last week, but didn't set the track on fire in similar sorts of conditions they can expect in Norway. Geraint Thomas finished on the same time as him that day in the TOB, on his return to action after crashing out of the TDF two months beforehand. 

Thomas had pulled off a massive suprise of course when he won the opening TT of the Tour, it was an extraordinary effort from him. But he hasn't raced for two months and eased himself back in to it in the TOB. Will he be fit enough and strong enough to play a major part in this effort? Vasil Kiryienka is a shadow of the machine that won the Worlds just two years ago, he's only won the Chrono des Nations since then, against pretty limited opposition. But he did pull off a fine performance in the TOB TT to take 3rd place, 10" ahead of Thomas and Kwiat. Maybe he's looking to peak for this and the CDN again this year. And Owain Doull is a fine track rider, but he's no Brad Wiggins on a TTT bike. So not such a strong team in reality as far as I'm concerned and the 11/10 is way too short in my mind, I'd have them around 2/1. 

Sunweb are led by Tom Dumoulin, and is supported by quite a young team with Soren Kragh Andersen, Lennard Kamna and Sam Oomen all under 23 years of age, with SKA the only one with a bit of experience of this, having taken part last year. They were Giant-Alpecin for last year's race, but finished only 7th, and the year before 5th. The rest of the team comprises Wilko Kelderman and Michael Matthews, and to be honest, I'm scratching my head as to why they are 10/1 3rd favourites. 

Yeah Tom Dum is a great time triallist, but he's the hot favourite for the ITT.. will he want to kill himself for maybe 3rd place at best? The best he has ever finished in ANY TTT was 5th, in the Worlds back in 2015 on the hilly course in Richmond. The three young lads are strong, but lack experience of an event like this, and Wilko Kelderman and Michael Matthews, while capable, are no TTT superstars either. I'm really tempted to back them NOT to finish in the top 3 at 8/13, I'm looking to take them on though in matchbets when Will Hill opens their matchbets .

LottoNL Jumbo are as short as 7/1 with Will Hill but 12/1 with Bet365, and you can see why they are such a short price with such a quality lineup of time-trialling talent. Jos Van Embden, Victor Campanaerts, Primus Roglic, Lars Boom, Stef Clement and Giesj Van Hoecke are all very good against the clock, and they finished 5th last year, just 1" behind Sky in 4th with Kelderman, Campanaerts, Roglic and Van Emden in that team.

Can they step it up on a tough course like this with just the addition of Boom and Van Hoecke to the team? I'm not so sure.. Yes, Boom obviously is in good form with that stunning win in the TOB TT at something like 60/1, but that was his first TT win since 2013 and only his second in 9 years. He does place consistently well though so he will be a vital addition to the team. Campanaerts was runner-up to Lampaert in the Belgian TT championships, and has been going well this year, and Jos Van Emden beat Tom Dumoulin in the 29km TT in the Giro earlier this year, but only finished 4th in the Dutch championships this year and has been a bit hit and miss. 

Will the course work against them though? I think a flatter course would have suited them a lot better and that climb is going to hinder them too I think. 4th to 6th for me. 

Now Movistar are a team that look to have a very strong squad here, with a line-up full of all-round powerhouses. Only sixth last year, it was a very disappointing run from the men in dark blue (well until next season that is..), but they had valid excuses for that run. Shortly after starting Jonathan Castroviejo, probably the strongest guy on the team (3rd in the ITT a few days later) had a mechanical and had to change bikes. They finished well over a minute behind Quickstep and that will have hurt, being beaten by the likes of LottoNL and a weak Sky team. 

They seem to have named a team this year though determined to do a lot better. Reigning and three-time Spanish TT champion Castroviejo leads the way and he's had an ok season on the TT bike, winning the TT in the Algarve at the start of the season, beating Martin, Roglic, Kwiat, Boom and Dowsett, and has finished 2nd in the TT in Poitou Charentes and Sarthe, but they were quite short TTs, shorter than what he needs really. He rode really strongly in the TDF when needed for Quintana and will be coming here well prepared to try to do well in the TTT, but also to try to podium again in the TT. 

With him will be almost all the same team as last year, with Alex Dowsett, Andrey Amador, Emanol Erviti and Jasha Sutterlin, with only Gorka Izagirre replacing Nelson Oliveira from last year's team. We all know how well Dowsett can TT, even though he was disappointed with his 9th in the ITT, he said it was one of the best 10 milers he's ever done and still only finished 9th. Andrey Amador is another big engine, who finished 9th and 10th in the two Giro TTs and 6th in the TT in Romandie, missing a podium spot by 2". Emanol Erviti is a real workhorse for the team, but a vital part in the Movistar TTT lineup, he's been a key member of Movistar TTTs since 2011, and even 2010 as Caisse d'Epargne. 

Jasha Sutterlin is another superb German time triallist, and if it wasn't for Tony Martin, he would be double German TT champion. When Martin retires I think we'll see Sutterlin possibly hold the same sort of dominance over that jersey as Martin has for the last decade or so. Twice under 23 German TT champion, Movistar showed what faith they have in him by including him in their World's TTT lineup for the past three years, since he was just 21. And Gorka Izagirre is another very decent time triallist with bags of experience and power, he finished 2nd in the Spanish nationals two years ago behind Castroviejo. Movistar look a massive price to me at 80/1 and the 6/1 on them to finish in the top 3 appeals. 

Katusha Alpecin have world TT champion Tony Martin of course, and he's been known in the past to do the ITT in around the same time as many of the smaller teams in the TTT all on his own. and he's joined by Morkov, Kristoff, Hollenstein, Machado and Politt, and as far as I'm concerned they're not a team who will be scorching around this course. 

Orica-Scott are not the team they used to be in team time trials, but it's a pretty experienced and powerful team all the same that they have brought to Bergen. Svein Tuft, Daryl Impey, Damien Howson, Luke Durbridge, Alexander Edmonson and Michael Hepburn make up the team. Luke Durbridge and Svein Tuft  have been ever-present since the TTT came back in 2012, finishing 2nd twice, 3rd twice and 4th once, while Michael Hepburn has been there since 2013 but they have yet to step up to the top step of the podium. 

They are all very strong TT'ers, they're a very cohesive unit, but I'm not sure this course with its rolling hills and steep climb in the middle will suit them so much. There's no real climbers in that squad and they could lose valuable time there. They should be good enough for a top 6 though you'd think.

Astana have a pretty average team here on the whole, despite being led by the powerhouse that is Alexei Lutsenko. He has Dario Cataldo, Oscar Gatto, Andriy Grivko, Truls Korsaeth and Sergei Chernetckii as team-mates, none of which are TT specialists as such, but will put out big watts. Not going to trouble the podium, they are 500/1 for a reason, but will be interesting to see who they are put up against in the matchbets. 

Trek, Bora Hansgrohe and the rest will huff and puff, but they won't be breaking any doors down. 

So who wins? It's a very hard one to call, BMC look very strong and should go very close. Sky look good on paper, but I think they have weaknesses too and are way too short at 11/10. LottoNL and Sunweb will be close, but honestly, I couldn't understand why Quickstep are as big as they are at 14/1 with Will Hill and 11/8 to place in the top 3 with Bet365, and I had to have something on that. Movistar should go better than their 80/1 odds imply. 

1pt win on QuickStep Floors to win at 14/1 with Will Hill

3pts on QuickStep to finish in the top 3 at 11/8 with Bet365

0.5pts on Movistar to finish in the top 3 at 6/1 with 365

Matchbets

Movistar to beat Orica Scott - 2pts at 6/5 with 365

Astana to beat CCC and QS to beat Katusha - 5pts at 4/5