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Published on Thursday, 21 April 2016 13:13

Liège-Bastogne-Liège

Liège to Ans

Sunday 24th April, 253kms

So we had the same 1-2 in Fleche-Wallone as twelve months ago, with Valverde leading home Alaphilippe, will we see a similar result in Ans on Sunday afternoon? Can anyone stop the imperious Valverde? For a man that was possibly not at 100% going in to FW, he certainly put his rivals to the sword in devastating fashion. 

It was textbook from Valverde again. Movistar were excellent, working hard all day at the front, sending Fernandez up the road to draw out Etixx in to the chase and then Valverde got himself in the ideal position at the front with 500m to go and was able to control the pace again. Dan Martin did what I thought he might and worked for Alaphilippe, attacking first, but Valverde was never in trouble. When Valverde kicked, Alaphilippe tried to go with him, but it was the second kick on the flatter parts that I described in my preview that killed off Alaphilippe, Valverde is just too good at that part of the climb.

With Sergio Henao being withdrawn by Sky in the morning because of his suspicious blood values from two years ago, we got stakes back on his bets (but not from the scumbags at William Hill, avoid them for bets ahead of race day if possible), but it turned the treble with Vanendert and Albasini in to a double, which won, but it was not a great day on the matchbets. Ulissi finished 8th, Slagter did a job for Woods at the bottom of the Mur and rolled in down the field. Rodriguez finished way down in 28th place, but even that was good enough to beat Moreno who was a really poor 37th.

Speaking of Woods, he gave it a real go and was not far off at all for a 300/1 shot - he finished 12th, on the same time as Gasparotto in 5th. In fact, he might have done better, but Gasparotto shouldered him out of the way as he was trying to get out and up to the front with Albasini and Co. with about 600m to go. It seemed to knock Woods off his stride a little and he slipped back a few places. Gasparotto was superb again to take that 5th place though, as was Poels in 4th, Sammy Sanchez in 6th, Albasini in 7th and Barguil in 9th. The old boys finishing 1st, 5th, 6th and 7th...mmm... With the form Valverde showed though, can anybody stop him Sunday? 

At 253kms long, 'La Doyenne' is the same distance as 2015, but still 10kms shorter than the 100th edition in 2014. It is the longest of the Ardennes Classics races and indeed one of the longest Classics of the season. The finish is of course an iconically tough hill, but is a very different prospect to the Cauberg or the Mur de Huy, and is preceded by a whole number of tough climbs along the way. Most notably, the Côte de  la Redoute and the Côte de Saint Nicholas. Coming with just 5km to go, it usually sees a final selection before the last climb up to the finish in Ans, but this year the organisers have included a new, devilish twist.

Instead of going straight on to the final climb up to the finish in Ans, they are taken on a little detour to the right and up over the Côte de la Rue Nainot. It may only be 600m long, but it averages 10.5%, and more importantly, it's over cobbles! (right) This is sure to shake things up a little more and if you were on the limit coming over the Saint Nicholas, you could be in big trouble here.. Then on to the familiar final kilometre charge up the hill and sharp turn to the left for the finish line. 

This is one of the great races - a real race of attrition with nasty climbs coming one after the other for the last 100kms. It's one of the toughest classics which sees GC men battle with classics riders and the list of winners is a who's who of legends - Eddy Merckx has won it 5 times, Moreno Argentin 4 times, Sean Kelly Twice. Can Dan Martin emulate his compatriot and land his second win in La Doyenne? Can Valverde make it four wins to take him within one of the great Meckx? Can Alaphilippe go one better than his gallant second place last year? It's all up in the air, it's hard to call it, it should be great. 

The Route

As they head south out of Liège they follow more or less the exact same route as last year -  there is hardly a flat stretch of road to be seen for over 260kms with a relentless run of of hills. There are many unclassified climbs and hills along the route, but the first classified climb comes after 78.5kms with the C ôte de la Roche-en-Ardennes. As is traditional now though, the real action starts after 167kms on the way back to Liège, with the trilogy of quick climbs of the C ôte de Wanne, Stockeu and Haute-Levée which come between the 161 and 182km point, but this year they are skipping the Stockeau, which they will be glad to hear.. Of the three of them, the Stockeu was the toughest - a nasty 12.4% for 1km with parts up to 15% and it is ridiculously narrow - barely the width of a car. 

After that comes the new climb that was introduced last year, the Col du Rosier, after 192kms which is 4.4kms at 5.9%. This is followed by another climb introduced last year, the Col du Maquisard after 204.5kms, which is 2.5kms at 5% average. 

It's back on to the familiar run in though from there with the C ôte de la Redoute next up after 216.5kms - another ridiculously narrow road that is barely wide enough for 4 riders to ride side-by-side. It's a testing 8.9% for 2kms and we could see some attacks go here in an attempt to break things up before the finishing hills. It's then on to the  C ôte de la Roche aux Facons with just 20kms to go, another horrible climb considering they will have 232kms in the legs (9.3% for 1.5kms, the last 500m average nearly 11%.) 

Then they hit what is usually the penultimate climb, the C ôte de Saint Nicolas, where Pozzovivo and Caruso attacked in 2014 and where Betancur attacked in 2013 and kicked off the response which saw Martin, Scarponi, Rodriguez and Valverde break away in pursuit of Ryder Hesjedal who was up the road and set up the race-winning move for Martin.

But just 1.5kms later, and with just 3.5kms to go, they suddenly hit the new twist to the race - the Côte de la Rue Nainot. It may only be 600m, but it average 10.5%, and it's over small cobblestones. As if the riders won't be tired enough, we will definitely see some get shed out the back with the combination of the gradient, the cobbles and the sheer speed they will be attacking this with just 3kms to go from the top. Especially if it's wet, it'll be even harder. I spoke to a pro today who did a recon of the hill this week and he said "After 250kms it'll be tough. The cobbles aren't bad. The climb is fairly steep. Not long. But definitely hard.. Someone super tough will win."

The final hill to the finish is almost dead straight uphill and is one final, brutal, deciding test - 1.5kms at 5.6% with a left hand turn 100m from the line. Go too early and you could be caught late like Rodriguez in 2013 or Pozzo and Caruso in 2014. It can pay to attack it like Martin in 2013, it can pay to sit on the wheels and wait for the last 200m like Gerrans and Valverde did for the last two years.

The Weather

The forecast for this year's race is for it to be a very cold day, hitting a max of only 6 degrees, with a possibility of rain and even snow showers. It will make it an even more difficult day on the bike and could have an impact on the outcome of the race, we saw how some riders were affected by the cold in Amstel Gold. Some riders struggle in the cold and wet, especially the skinnier, lighter guys, others thrive in it and even look forward to it!.

Contenders and Favourites

Alejandro Valverde is rightly the 11/4 favourite for the race, he is the reigning champ, may well have the best sprint out of the likely reduced bunch sprint finish and is in great shape as we saw on Wednesday in Fleche-Wallone. Even Dan Martin, who says he has never felt as good on the Mur de Huy couldn't stay with him. Movistar were excellent on Wednesday, a masterful team display from start to finish and it's likely we will see them dominate the race again on Sunday in an effort to get Valverde to that final bend in the first five riders. 

What can stop him? The weather might turn and make him suffer more than usual, but he says that he's not bothered by the possibilty of cold and even snow. Crashes in the wet, if it does rain, could cause issues of course too, but that's a slim possibility. Late, multiple attacks might put him under pressure, but he's excellent at marking the right moves and he's not the only one who wants to win so he will have support from the likes of OGE and maybe Lotto-S, Sky and Wanty if Etixx start attacking.

The one unknown, that could possibly derail him is the Rue Nainot - the 600m cobbled climb that comes just 3kms from the finish. There are sure to be plenty of attacks on it and it could make for a very exciting climax ahead of the final climb to the finish if they put him under pressure. He did cope pretty well with the cobbles in the stage of the TDF to Cambrai last year though, although they were cobbles of a very different kind to these ones. I think he'll be fine though and he looks like the man to beat. 

Dan Martin has been training with this race in mind over the winter, he has been doing lots of practice on shorter climbs under 5kms specifically for the Ardennes races. He did his trademark attack in FW on Wednesday with about 400m to go, coming up the right hand side of the road. Although it blew away most of the rest of the field, Valverde was very comfortable in jumping on his wheel. His team-mate Alaphilippe, who probably has been doing a similar training routine to Dan, also was able to go with them. I did warn that might be the case, that he might work for Alaphilippe there, in return for Alaphilippe's help on Sunday. If you did back him each-way you made a small profit at least as he was strong enough to keep going and land the 3rd place.

This is the race he loves though and although he has won it with that brilliant attack in 2013, the crash on the final bend in 2014 still haunts him and I think he really wants to bury that forever with a 2nd victory. Etixx did a reasonably good job in protecting them on Wednesday, they both came to the bottom of the Mûr in great positions ready to fight for the win. It's quite a different team than on Wednesday though and although there are some strong guys in there like Serry, Vermote and Brambilla, it doesn't look the strongest team they could have put out.

A strong team will be even more important on Sunday I think over the last 20kms, especially on the Rue Nainot, they will need some strong guys to control things at the front and drag them to the final climb with a reduced lead group. From there, Martin has a chance. He can attack away like he did when he won three years ago, and I think he will have to, as he won't beat Valverde in a sprint. It may be that they try the 1-2 with Alaphilippe going early on the hill and Valverde being forced to chase, with Martin going with about 500m to go. If Valverde is on the limit he may not be able to deal with a strong attack from Martin. 

On the other hand though, Julian Alaphilippe has shown that he is in great form again and seems to have recovered well from his health issues. Or will Wednesday's effort possibly have taken a lot out of him? He was 2nd as well of course here last year, so he clearly goes well on this course, and you'd expect him to go well again this year, but at just 10/1 I'm not that tempted. 

Joaquim Rodriguez has gone really well here in the past but I think he will struggle to make an impact on Sunday again. Rodriguez surprised me at first to be at the front, attacking on the Mûr on Wednesday, but then he faded away badly in the last 500m to finish in 28th place. I think the crash is still affecting him and after a longer, much harder day on Sunday I'm not sure he'll be up there with a chance of winning. 

Simon Gerrans - his season has been building to this.. A disaster for the team in Amstel Gold when Matthews could only finish 5th, the team, and in particular Gerrans just weren't there for him when he needed them most. Was it just that Gerrans didn't have the legs, which would be a worry for Sunday, or was it just that he couldn't be bothered putting himself in to the red for a bloke he doesn't like? Either way, things need to go a bit better for them on Sunday and they need to work as a team.

People said in 2014 he wouldn't be able to cope with the climbing demands of LBL, but he showed them in fine style with his superb win, but he had the help of a great team that day to get him to the finish in the right position. He needs to be well looked after, but he is also well able to look after himself at the finish, and if he is well placed on the final climb and rounds that bend with the lead group, there won't be many able to beat him. I backed him way back during the Tour Down Under at 12/1, but he's still generally that price as he hasn't really shown much since to justify shortening his odds. He is as short as 9/1 but there is actually some 14/1 available with Corals who are paying four places and that looks a good bet to me.

Vincenzo Nibali warmed up for this race (or more importantly, the Giro) in the Giro del Trentino this week. Although the team got off to a great start winning the TTT, it was Kangert and Fuglsang who emerged as the top men for Astana as Nibali fell by the wayside. Dropped on the first mountain stage and lost 32" to Landa, he yo-yoed up and down to the lead group on stage 2 before eventually the elastic snapped and he lost 2'27". He tried to do a job for his team-mates on the 4th stage with a long range attack with Cunego, but they were reeled in long before the finish.

I have said avoid him for the last two years running when he was shortish prices, even at 20/1, twice the price he was last year, I'm not interested. He was dropped by the lead group near the finish last year and came in around 30 seconds down, I think it will be a similar story this year. 

Sky are an interesting team here, 'led' by Chris Froome. Froome is 80/1 to win it, and that's even on the short side to me, he will only be using it as a good training day I think and if it's cold and wet, he won't be taking any risks and may not even finish. Even if he's there towards the finish, he won't beat the punchier guys. Woet Poels did well in FW on Wednesday, he was right at the front all the way up the Mur and finished an impressive 4th. Like Froome though, very hard to see him win this.

Michal Kwiatkowski is their shortest priced rider at 25/1, but he hasn't impressed at all of late, getting dropped very early on in AGR, a race he was really fancied to win. He might have been ill or something, as that was a big surprise, but it has put me right off him, not that I was all that interested in him to start with anyway. Ben Swift will find it hard going out there, but if the team rally around him and he's on a really good day, he could do a Gerrans and stay with the front group. We saw how well he went in Milan San Remo, and in most people's eyes was unlucky to not have won that race.

It's the first time in his seven years at Team Sky though that he has been entered in the race, which is interesting, maybe he and the team thinks he can be up there at the finish this year and he has a chance in the sprint? At 150/1 he's a massive price if so. Only Paddy Power had priced him up at first, it's like the others didn't even see it coming. He didn't finish AGR and was 105th in FW, so it's hard to know what way it will go Sunday. He's skipping the Tour of Yorkshire to do it though, it has peaked my interest, if only because of how big the price is, Bet365 have opened at 200/1.

Cannondale have Tom-Jelte Slagter who hasn't been his usual self lately it would seem but he did a job for Woods on Wednesday on the Mur de Huy before easing back. He was 7th in the U23 LBL in 2010, won by Navardauskas, but I don't think he'll be featuring on Sunday and in fact Nordhaug in a matchbet at 11/10 appeals, Nordhaug has finished in the top 20 three times in the last four years, he could well be up there again. Simon Clarke, Toms Skujins, Alex Howes and Michael Woods could go ok for them, Michael Woods did well on Wednesday with 12th, he was not originally down to do this but has been drafted in, they are happy with the way he's going. He's tough and he'll like these climbs and at 150/1 with PP paying four places he's worth another small bet.

Lotto Soudal's best hope probably lies with Tim Wellens, but it will be interesting to see if he does his trademark late attack and just how late does he leave it - on the Saint Nicholas? The Rue Nairo? Or the final hill to Ans? Either way I don't think it will be good enough to win it, I can't see OGE, Movistar or Etixx letting him slip away. They also have Thomas de Gendt who is an early breakaway candidate, Tosh Van der Sande, possibly for the sprint, and Jelle Vanendert who could go well on this finish this year.

Tinkoff have a lot of climbers in the race with Kreuziger, Kiserlovski, Majka, but their best chance might lie with their toughest man, Michael Valgren Andersen. As my pro put it above, it'll be someone super tough will win it, and there aren't many tougher than Valgren. A very impressive 2nd in AGR last weekend, he has some serious power and could well be there at the finish. If he is, I wouldn't be surprised to see him attack on the Rue Nainot or on the final hill. There mightn't be many with much strength left in their legs left at that point. I missed all the fancy prices though, he was 300/1, but is now just 100/1 with Sportingbet (but they won't take a bet from me, they're another bunch of scumbags along with William Hill who don't refund riders who don't start...). If you can get on, he's worth a small bet, otherwise he's 66/1 with PP. 

AG2R have a number of possible outsiders here, Jan Bakelants should like the conditions and could go on a late attack on one of the last hills. Romain Bardet has been working hard in Trentino without impressing too much, likewise with Pozzovivo. Astana also have Fuglsang and Lieuwe Westra besides Nibbles, and Fuglsang was going particularly well in Trentino, finishing 3rd and Westra is a rider who goes well in the wet and cold and both of them would have outside chances. 

BMC don't have Gilbert, but they do have De Marchi, Dillier, Hermans, Porte and Sammy Sanchez, all of which could be prominent towards the end. Sanchez has been going well lately and has finished 4th, 6th, 7th, 10th (X2), 13th and 15th here over the years, a pretty impressive record. 6th in FW on Wednesday he's a tough old pro who could offer some value at 40/1.

Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi offer Lampre's best chances here, with Costa in particular with a good chance if it's wet and cold, conditions he's comfortable racing in. Ulissi on the other hand I think might struggle and I'm not interested in him. Enrico Gasparotto for Wanty Group, Floris de Tier for Topsport, Dani Navarro for Cofidis - all riders with a chance, but won't be winning it I think. Gaparotto has been backed this week of course after his showings in AGR and FW but on a cold and wet day, slight, skinny guys like him will suffer more than others so I don't see him on the podium. 

This should be an excellent race - the general consensus is that the finale is going to be extremely hard and exciting. The pro I speak to reckons that it will be a really tough race and the skinny pros will suffer in the cold and wet - as he put it "The whole day is up and down. The rain won't be the only problem. Cold will too. It'll be super cold. Wet isn't always cold and wet. That's a tough combo." For that reason I am not going to back Dan Martin pre-race, as much as I'd like to back him, but maybe in-play if the weather doesn't turn out as bad as some are fearing, he seems to be one who suffers more than most sometimes in the cold and wet. Alejandro Valverde of course looks the most likely winner given the form he's in and how well he goes here and the 11/4 looks a good saver bet to have again.

Although there are some worries about Gerrans' form, I think that he has been preparing for this all season and will be a major player at the finish here. OGE will look after him and will get him to the last few hills at the front and he'll fight his corner from thereon in. He is a stand-out 14/1 with Corals paying four places and that's worth taking. I think Sammy Sanchez could also go close and we could even see him attacking on the Rue Nainot in an attempt to get away solo.

There is the possibility that we see a solo winner - if conditions are that bad the race could be in bits by the last two climbs and we could see a late attack win it. But it's more likely we'll see a group of 10-15 come to the finish, which should include Valverde, Gerrans, Costa, Alaphilippe and Sanchez. I think Dan Martin might struggle in the cold and wet and may not finish on the podium. Ben Swift and Michael Valgren are two wild shots, Swift in case he has a monster ride in the bad conditions and gets to the finish with the leaders, Valgren for a possible late attack on the 2nd to last or last climb. It could also be a day for in-play betting as the race evolves, watch for tweets on that at the time. 

One bet added in play, 14:20 - Tanel Kangert at 66/1 with PP. Been told that he will like this course and the conditions by a friend of his.. was hoping for bigger but no one priced him up pre-race, as he was a late addition to the race after impressing in Trentino.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Simon Gerrans at 14/1 with Corals

0.3pts each-way on Sammy Sanchez at 40/1 with Skybet paying four places

0.2pts each-way on Michael Valgren Andersen at 66/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Michael Woods at 150/1 with Paddy Power

0.1pts each-way on Ben Swift at 200/1 with Bet365

1pt win on Valverde at 3/1 on betfair 

0.25pts each-way on Tanel Kangert at 66/1 with PP in play.

Matchbets 

Nordhaug to beat Slagter - 2pts at 11/10 with PP

Vanendert to beat Rosa - 2pts at 6/5 with PP

Michael Woods to beat Albasini - 1pt at Evens

Gallopin to beat Zakarin - 1.5pts at 5/6

Here are my top ten riders to watch in Liege-Bastogne-Liege for this week's Zweeler fantasy cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

1 Simon Gerrans

2 Michael Valgren

3 Alejandro Valverde

4 Julian Alaphilippe

5 Michal Woods

6 Dan Martin

7 Samuel Sanchez

8 Jelle Vanendert

9 Rui Costa

10 Enrico Gasparotto

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