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Published on Saturday, 13 September 2014 23:26

Vuelta a España St. 21

Santiago De Compostela

Sunday September 14th, 9.7kms 

I think most were hoping to see some sort of battle on the final TT for the GC, not that 9.7kms would have made a great difference to the finishing positions, but with Contador 1'37" ahead of Froome, the TT is a dead rubber with regards the General Classification. There is of course the stage battle to win and it should be a close battle between some top Time Triallists.  

Contador stamped his authority on the race today, when he responded to everything that Froome could throw at him and then sprinted away inside the last kilometre in a similar result to stage 16. Froome battled with true grit, even putting up with some moron throwing a stick that hit him on the arm to finish second and second overall. Contador has laid down a marker now though ahead of 2015 and we are sure to see some magnificent battle between them, Quintana, Nibali and some more of the new guard coming though.  

The Route

An anti-clockwise trip out and around the suburbs of Santiago De Compostela over a pan flat 9.7km course. Not long enough to really get the diesel engines going so it will take a flexible but fast rider to win this stage. Not much else to say about the route really, there are plenty of long straight stretches and only about 13 turns so they should be able to put the power down nice and strong for most of the course. 

The weather might have a small influence on how things go for some, with showers a possibility in the afternoon.    

Contenders and Favourites

Could this be the day that Mr Second Place Rohan Dennis finally wins a TT? He doesn't have Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Wiggins, Dowsett or Kwiatkowski to finish in front of him this time, but he does face Chris Froome, Adriano Malori, Jesse Sergent and Kristian Vandewalle. Dennis has come 2nd so many times he must be a real favourite with the ladies.

Rohan Dennis is a good Time Triallist but apparently not a very nice chap - so much so that he just had to leave Garmin as he had fallen out with everyone there according to the rumours. BMC took him on board and although he has been working hard for the team, he hasn't exactly set things alight during his tenure so far with the team. Based on the first TT in the Vuelta though, you wouldn't be hugely confident of him producing a stage winning result tomorrow, he finished 25th, over 2minutes back. 5/1 is very short considering that performance.

It's pretty tight at the top with Adriano Malori and Chris Froome around the 4/1-5/1 level and again these are hard to get excited about. Adriano Malori has been pretty anonymous in this race and has been having to work for Valverde a lot lately. He had a really poor first TT though, finishing way down in 24th place, some two minutes off Martin and that shouldn't get me too enthused about him either. It was a harder course though than what he likes and this is far more to his liking. His best result at a TT came in this year's Tirreno Adriatico when he beat a massively talented field that included Martin, Cancellara, Kwiatkowski, Dowsett, Wiggins and Dumoulin. The course that day was over 9.1kms on a pan flat course and if he can repeat that performance he should go very close to winning it. 3/1 with Paddy Power might be the bet, as he should be in the top 3 at worst, let's hope he doesn't have a shocker like in the first TT.

Chris Froome had a very hard stage today and he looked exhausted at the finish - he could muster nothing when Contador attacked at the finish. He must also feel a bit deflated after failing to get rid of Contador and although he may be going flat out to try to win a stage at the very last chance, he must be surely feeling the effects of some very hard racing. He should be able to finish in the top 5, but I took him on in the first TT and that paid off and I might do so again here. 

Kristian Vandewalle hasn't had a great Vuelta, with 13 out of the 20 stages so far seeing him finish in a place in the hundred + level, with 49th his best placing if you exclude the opening TTT when he finished 4th with TFR. I have a feeling though that he has hung in there this long because he fancies a shot at this TT, especially with Martin and Cancellara after heading home already. He had a terrible opening TT finishing in 120th place, but that had a Cat 3 climb on it and didn't suit him whatsoever. Just a month ago he beat Malori over 25kms on a flat course by 3" and just before that he won the TT in the Tour of Austria from Jesse Sergent. It's going to go one way or the other for him I think, he could finish in the top 3 or in 53rd, but 10/1 might be worth an each-way shot with Paddy Power. 

Jesse Sergent is a good powerful TT'er also - he finished an impressive 9th in the first ITT, 1'13" behind Martin. 5th in the Eneco Tour and 5th in the Commonwealth Games for New Zealand, 2nd in Austria, he has finished in the top 10 in nearly all the TTs he has done this year. I think he will top 10 again tomorrow, maybe top 5 but not sure he can finish on the podium. Bodnar, Lutsenko and Contador could go well too but I think this is Malori's stage with Vandewalle a possible podium finisher at 9/1.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Adriano Malori at 3/1 with Paddy Power

0.5pts each-way on Vandewalle at 9/1 with Paddy Power

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