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- Published on Thursday, 11 September 2014 22:46
Vuelta a España St. 19
Salvaterra Do Miño to Cangas Do Morrazo
Friday September 12th, 180.5kms
Friday's stage could be the last big chance for the breakaway experts to try to take something from the stage with just a mountain top finish and the TT to come. If the break doesn't make it, the Cat2 climb 15km from the finish should make the final selection. It is sure to be fast and furious for the opening half of the race until the break and counter attacks settle down a little.
Cangas Do Morrazo is a seaside town which is bordered by the Atlantic and according to the Vuelta website, when it comes to the number of beaches, Cangas holds a municipal record with thirty-eight, ten of them Blue Flag beaches, some located in the centre of town and others further away and not easily accessible, for those who like their solitude.
Today was a super exciting stage, with Froome and Aru taking advantage of the three amigos (or should we start calling them the three Stoogies because of how they blew it again?!) looking at each other again. It all exploded in the final 6kms with number of strong looking attacks, one of which was Navarro and I started cursing I hadn't taken the 100/1! As it was though it came down to the top guys again as expected, bar Dan Martin who folded badly today when things all kicked off in the last 3kms.
Aru was super strong today, attacking and riding powerfully before winning the sprint finish.. I shouldn't have doubted him, he has shown he is the most explosive of all of them on this sort of stage. Froome stole a few more seconds back and is certainly not giving up on this race just yet.. Saturday's stage is going to be brilliant.. Valverde is too much of a wheelsucking watcher, Froome knows that and if you look closely he was very clever with his attack.. He waited until Valverde was at the front with Contador and Purito in behind and he attacked up inside Valverde knowing that he would not be able to respond to him and subsequently got a quick gap. He beat Contador and Rodriguez in the sprint for 3rd but that was too late, Aru and Froome had nicked it.
The Route
They start just across a river from the border with Portugal, they head north as far as Ponteareas which they reach after just 8kms. They then turn left and head west in to the headwind until they reach O Porriño where they then take another left turn and head suoth-west on a lot of long and straight roads until they reach the southernmost point of the stage at a Guarda where the first intermediate sprint of the day is located after 59kms.
They then turn back north and hit the first climb of the day after 75kms, the Cat 2 Alto de Monte da Groba. At 12kms it's a reasonably long climb on an otherwise pretty flat parcours but the average gradient is a rather sedate 4.3%. It's one for the rouleurs and big engines to really push it on rather than your out and out climbers. 12kms of a descent takes them down to the 100km mark and the feed station at Baiona.
The rest of the stage is spent more or less hugging the coastline and that could bring it's own problems with winds and echelons. As they head north they'll have a cross/tail wind and it could make it extremely fast. With 30kms to go they turn again and spend most of the remainder of the stage riding in to a headwind.
After 160kms they start up the final test of the day, the Cat 2 climb of the Alto Monte Faro. This is only 4.7kms long but is twice as steep as the first climb of the day at 8.4% average. With only 15.5kms left to the finish from the summit the action is sure to be red hot up this climb with attacks going all over the place. There's a fast 5km descent which could make or brake a winning move and then a lumpy run in to the finish in Cangas do Morrazo, where they go up a draggy hill for 2.5kms until the 2.5km to go mark and then it's a slightly downhill run all the way to the line. The run in to the finish is reasonably safe along the wide Paseo de Castelao with plently of long straight stretches.
Route Map
Profile
Last Kms
Contenders and Favourites
A break has a shot at making it today and in picking a few candidates for this stage's break I think you'd need to look at really strong rouleur/time triallists to handle the long flat bits in between the two climbs. Guys like Lutsenko of Astana who finished 2nd on stage 9 from the big break, Adam Hansen, Bob Jungels, Ryder Hesjedal, Danilo Wyss or Johan Vansummeren. Alessandro de Marchi is clearly in great shape and up for a break and Romain Sicard has been very aggressive and up for the long breaks.
We could also see Jerome Coppel try to go up the road, he's finishing the race well as we saw with his attacks on today's stage and he could fancy this one tomorrow too. Luis Leon Sanchez may well try to get in the break too in order to try to take the KOM points on offer to try to secure the jersey. It is still possible for Valverde or Contador to win the KOM jersey with the amount of points on offer on Saturday's stage, so full points on this stage might just do it for him. There are quite a few there that I think have to be in the break of the day.
The stage is going to be interesting from the point of view that if a big break goes with a mixture of riders in it, who is going to chase? The GC teams are not going to do a lot of work today ahead of the big battle on Saturday and they know that although there could be attack opportunities on the final climb, it's too far to go to the finish to hold any time gap gained you'd have to think. The only scenario where it could become a GC man take it is if Froome and Contador go on the attack near the top and they get a gap and time trial it to the finish - if they've blown things apart behind they may not be able to organise a concerted chase and no one will want to take responsibility. It's possible, but a long shot!
Looking at the betting though the bookies see this as being a puncheurs stage - all the top of the betting are Ardennes classics type men - Gilbert, Valverde, Martin, Moreno, Degenkolb.. I guess they expect a group of some 30-40 riders to get over that last climb together and scrap it out at the finish. This is why Matthews is the 8/1 favourite for tomorrow, if he can stay with them, he should take the sprint.. He has more chance of staying with the climbers than Degenkolb, although even that is being debated by the bookies as he is 12/1 with one and 25/1 with Paddy Power. (edit: this morning the organisers have announced that they have removed the last 2kms of the final climb due to a bad road surface.. these were some of the steeper parts so it should play in to Matthews hands a bit more still. It also could mean that Degenkolb might make it now, but I still think it might be too hot for him.. 08:24)
Dan Martin is 12/1 second favourite with Valverde and I think Martin's price is just ridiculous - he has failed every time he has been fancied so far in this race and why should he be joint second favourite for tomorrow? Is he going to break away on the climb and solo all the way to victory? No chance. Is he going to go in the break? No chance. He should be about 40/1 and not 12/1. Valverde is similar, he will do nothing but suck wheels though and if the GC men really push it on and only a handful get over the top with 30"+ they might make it to the finish without being reeled in. If so, Valverde could win the sprint.
I think the break has a chance, but there are still plenty of teams that area interested in winning this stage, it's the last chance really for most with the hard mountain stage and TT all that's left after this. It depends on who's in it of course, they may get enough rope if most of the teams are represented and with a tailwin for a lot of the middle part of the course they could hold a good lead.
If it does come back together though it could really be anything at the finish - as I said above, the main GC men could blow it apart and fight it out among 10 or less of them; they may not blow it apart but still cause a group of only 30-40 to go to the line, or we could even get some solo attacks on the final climb that could try to hold off the chasers.
Matthews has to have a big chance though.. he should be able to cope with the final climbs (especially now with the amended course) and it may be that the attacks will not be as violent and prolonged from the GC men with Saturday in mind, and even if he loses 20" or so over the top OGE should be able to get him back on. One other factor to bear in mind is that he has been given a brand new bike by Scott, labelled the 'BlingBike' (right) and I'm sure he will be doing his utmost to give it it's moment in the spotlight tomorrow!
At the prices though he has to be a win only bet though I think - he probably wins the sprint or else he won't be there at all! Maybe it might be worth waiting until a few more bookies open or Betfair gets a bit more liquidity, but 8/1 is probably close enough to being acceptable.
I'm going to back Matthews as my main bet but scatter a number of small bets at big prices on the candidates for the break of the day, hopefully we'll have a few get up the road with a good chance.
Recommendations:
Michael Matthews - 2pts win at 8/1 or better
0.3pts win on LL Sanchez at 20/1
0.3pts win on Allesandro de Marchi at 25/1 with Paddy Power
0.4pts win on Jerome Coppel at 33/1 with PP
0.4pts win on Adam Hansen at 66/1
0.3pts each-way on Alex Lutsenko at 66/1
0.2pts win on Bob Jungels at 80/1 with PP
Match Bets
none really interest me at the moment..
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